Hey now y'all, we got chef kevin over here and listen there, ain't no way in hell. This is a euphoria. I know because lord was just watching euphoria, and this is not euphoria, but in addition to that we got ta zoom out for a second yeah. Today's a little bit of a one percent give back day on the indices.

Okay, all right! No problem, no problem! Look at the fibs look at the phoebe phibi fibs, okay, fibby fibby fibs. We can't even get to the 50 phibi on the qqq, the nasdaq 100. We can't make it because there's no euphoria yet sure was there dip buying. Has there been maybe a little bit of fomo sure, but we have not seen euphoria yet either the show or here in the stock market.

So, personally to me, this feels like more fear over mr bullard, more fear over the 50 bp hike. Really, the fed just needs to go on vacation for a solid month and get out of our lives, and that's actually what they should be doing. Starting uh right around the end of this week, i actually expected this week to be a little bit more quiet uh with the fed but uh. They ended up scheduling like six meetings anyway, just to yap, yap, yap and uh and give us uh the the feeling of hey.

You know 50 bp high could be in the future. That's all right! It's all right! Next, fed meeting isn't until the beginning of may. Anyway, so we got about five six weeks, yeah in my opinion, i think there's a strong likelihood that between now and then uh mark has become comfortable with this idea of a 50 bp hike, because really, if we have a 50 bp hike, then it's like. Okay, we had it now you're gon na give it a shot.

You're gon na give it a chance to work. It's really not that big of a thing it would be big of a deal it's still quite accommodating now. There are concerns that, because of the bond market sell-off, which we expect to accelerate, or at least continue, i shouldn't say, accelerate. I was shorting when i was expecting acceleration, but i do still expect continuation uh, as the bond market continues to sell off it's entirely possible that you are going to see this some short-term rebalancing, and that may be what you get on a day like today, where You have funds, look and say, wait a minute we're supposed to have an allocation to bonds and these bonds are becoming worthless.

Let's do the stupid thing and buy more bonds. I honestly think it's stupid, but uh probably will still happen so uh there. Probably there are going to be days like this, and i expect that really for the rest of uh the year, maybe or at least the next six months, uh, there's gon na be a lot of this kind of madness. There's gon na be a lot of this uh where it's like wow, okay, wow, we're we're up two percent on the nasdaq, then we're down one percent.

Oh no, you know right and this back and forth, and that makes sense we're in a very uncertain time. You know i tweeted not too long ago that there's no way in hell, we should be reaching all-time highs. I completely believe that, like if we're at all-time highs, please like like, if end face, is at 300 and tesla's at like 1300, i'm either selling calls or i'm just straight up selling, because it it there's no way during a war and inflation. We should be in these situations right, like 50 fibonacci retracement big deal like that's like bare minimum.

I mean that was our margin of safety uh somebody tweeted at me, and they said i thought this was a good one to talk about. Oh here was on this one, oh yeah, so they tweeted me uh when i said that i would sell calls in the top third retracement. Oh, i can't find it whatever. They said something the effect of i tweet replied it.

That's where it is said something to the effect of hey. Well, i mean that's what people said about the you know retracing uh in in march of 2020 and it's true. There were some people that are like hey. You know you, you don't want to chase the retracement all the way back coming out of 2020..

The problem is 2020 was quite different, uh in fact yeah here it is. I agree with the sentiment here. I'll show it. I finally got it.

I agree with the sentiment, but people also saw the same uh thought the same thing when we retraced 50 from the 2020 crash right, but things are very different and i don't like using the word different because then people do that other times different crap. But look we have problems in this economy. Massive problems in 2020, jpow was our friend. Let's print unlimited amounts of money.

Congress was first stimulus package. Second stimulus package, third stimulus package right and there was no inflation. Then i mean we caused the inflation then, but there was no inflation, then so it's like, of course, we could break through all-time highs in 2020.. This time this market is is, is not that steady.

This is not the kind of market you want to bet on waiting for all-time highs in now. Personally uh, i i i cannot i just i can't do it. I can't sell here. I can't sell here uh.

I can't sell calls here. You know i actually uh back at the big. What was it like march, 15th or 16th? Somebody was talking about selling calls on tesla at 7.75, and i'm like that sounds like a really bad idea like. Why would you sell calls down here between zero and a 23.6 retracement on the qqq and i'm purposefully using qqq? Look a firm uh slipped today after running uh to some some recent highs right, but look i i can't play the same hope game or like i can't use a farm uh as an example of retracement, because i'm trying to use a broader index here.

That's much less sensitive to risk compared to an individual stock. That's also not profitable, right now, right so using the index here, there's no way near zero percent on a triple bottom of the qqq. Could i see myself selling calls so so you know that was crazy, but uh. The good news is, i didn't, sell any calls.

In fact, i only have a few purchase calls right now. Anyway. I always want to make it very clear. I'm bullish on this range right here now we might end up uh having some form of, and this is just pure speculation right.

There might end up being some form of uh something like this, where maybe we hit that 23 6 again, and this is why i think there's really no no point to being impatient in this market, but i wouldn't be surprised to see something like that. Yeah again no guarantees but uh. This is very normal. I don't think this is really what we wan na would believe to expect right now, especially when you have you know the united states coming out and talking about uh russia having definitely committed war crimes uh.

You know bullard again, the fed must retain its inflation credibility. The fed must ensure it retains uh, you know or raises interest rates appropriately. Uh inflation is way over a goal and it's going to go higher in the spring. You know these are some of the things that he said this morning, nothing new that he i mean.

He already said this stuff uh yesterday, so really no surprise. Here. Bullard does believe that europe could tip into recession because of the war in ukraine. But i'll tell you that the trend - searches that we did this morning with uh with course members are - are not showing consumer angst yet in america.

Now that could come so we're definitely wanting to pay attention to that, but uh american consumers are definitely behaving at the moment, substantially different than certainly chinese consumers, and it might still be too soon to tell on european consumers but we'll see so uh. Definitely a lot of things to pay attention to now. Market broadly also has some excitement in some of the momentum spaces. Obviously, gamestop amc, uh cardano.

I think uh more uh euphoria over uh, the grayscale bitcoin trust allocating cardano as a number one position in one of their uh, one of their funds, uh sort of their their basket of funds uh and uh at the same time as we're we're having these concerns Over a little bit of a pullback on the industry, today's indices today uh look at this we're almost there, where i want a short oil we're almost there. So i'm really excited about that, because i've said for quite a while here, like i don't want a short here. I said i might short here, but i'd really like to short here, so we're we're getting there we're getting to where i want to be see what happens uh, and i i it's just for in my opinion, my humble opinion. It doesn't make sense for us to get back to this 100 fib level when we had pure all-time high levels of fear for oil uh.

That was the day of the invasion. This is where that's it. You know oil's going to 200 oil's going to 180 and all these crazy, prophetic, whatevers nitro mike says, don't do it as the chef got any secret recipes on cooking the market. Uh no chef, kevin all of chef kevin's recipes are in the programs link down below on building your wealth.

Oh gotcha, shout out by the way to milad for joining the real estate investing course sean for joining stocks and psychology money joseph for joining stocks in psychology. Money and james for joining the build wealth making youtube videos program. We've also got somebody else here who bought the uh path to wealth course. That's a good one! That's got a lot of new new content in it too.

Okay, come on one day, i'm gon na change these batteries. There we go. I should get anyway all right, so somebody give me give me something i can yell at. I need.

I need something i could yell at. So somebody give me give me some comments. I don't know who's got a question who's doing something stupid out there that we could comment down uh all right. Let's get a rally into the clothes too.

Can we pump it come on come on? Buy the jet push it. Oh man, i miss those days. Those are fun fun together, uh we're here we need the no. What do we want? We want oh yeah yeah.

This is what we want all aboard. Bye, bye, bye, it's so stupid. I love it uh. Please answer talk about the okay.

Wait: whoa yeah yeah, all right, here's a good one. The question is: why are chinese stocks doing so terribly right now? Well, you've got two massive things happening. One. You have fear that china is actually in a recession right now.

This is an actual fear that china is having to do everything to prop up their economy. The consumers in china are saving four times more money in january of 2022 than they saved in january of 2021. That's massive! That's a big red flag right there. Their real estate empires are collapsing.

Bloomberg posted an article yesterday that evergrande is on a path to a restructuring deal it's like really you're on a you're on a path to a path. It's ridiculous! On top of that, you've got this fear that adrs american depository receipts really represent your ownership in absolutely nothing, and if chinese stocks get de-listed in america, then you've got to go over to the hong kong stock exchange to try to get some money back. Look at didi didi was supposed to get moved from the u.s stock exchange to uh to the shanghai stock exchange. What happened didn't get moved yet now they're delaying it to punish dede.

It was supposed to get listed over there, the equivalent of eight dollars and fifteen cents. Now it's three dollars and 85 cents institutions are dumping. The chinese adrs and they're trying to buy them in the chinese uh institutions over there. The stock exchanges in china instead of over here because of those risks, so two big risks over in the chinese markets.

Okay, next question: oh, i didn't know you spammed it if you spammed it, maybe i wouldn't have answered it yeah. You know it was not so much the earnings that disappointed me for adobe. Honestly, it was uh. It was the executives in the earnings call, combined with projections combined with trends, uh search trends and creating trends, uh and multiple, quite a few things, and it look adobe's a great company.

Don't get me wrong, i love adobe. Am i am about to throw seven figures in adobe? No, i don't own any and i probably won't. Will it probably do well when the market gets better? Of course, of course, everything will do better uh, it's trading. For about 421, i mean you got a little bit of a discount now, which is nice uh 13.70 from yesterday, when i did this it's trading for about it's still trading for 31 times 2022, with 13 to 15 growth.

I'd rather have tesla. I know not not another price, though i'd rather have tesla like 900 um yeah. I am still looking at home depot. I'm also uh a mega disney bull.

He bought apecoin. Ah personally, i i don't know. I have not made my mind up on apecoin, i'm a little. I don't know sauce.

Let me put it that way: i'm suss, i'm not uh yeah! That's that's it! That's all! I got bullard 300 bps. Oh my god. Oh flea sell everything. Whatever every federal reserve needs to have, one bullard, which is kind of funny because, like a bullard, is something that stops a car from crashing into something you know it's.

It's like the emergency brake, oh dear ray dalio's price target for tesla 1337. There you go is the offset outfit for cooking or the love of tattooed chef uh. It's because i need some people to give me somebody. I need people to say, stupid things about real estate in stocks, so i could turn into gordon ramsay.

That's what the chef outfit's for, and i don't i'm i'm the oh wait. Wait here we go, we got ta put the banner up. Okay, you ready, i am the untattoo chef, uh yeah, the gold pump is is very interesting. I saw gold moved like one percent today it moved right around the time that blinking came out talking about how china had committed war crimes.

So i think that's a little bit more of a uh fear temporary move. Uh i sold my gold. I made money on gold, though, does kevin have any tattoos zero, i'm not opposed to tattoos. I just don't.

Have any uh, have you seen the household credit card debt uh next question? I'm just kidding i'll look right now. I mean i've looked at it previously, but not recently i'll sold credit card debt, and you also want to compare to the availability of uh uh okay. Well, this is just total household debt, yeah, no non-housing debt. That doesn't help me.

Consumer debt maybe see i prefer this measure, which is consumer debt service payments as a percentage of personal income. This is this is good. This is what you want to pay attention to uh, so i still got a little bit of room there, but it's also a little bit dated and lagging but uh, nothing like what we saw during the tech bubble and, actually, surprisingly, not even the levels right before. Oh seven of that i don't think that's always interesting.

The lord already bullard's old news everybody's worried about bullard. It's old news blizzard needs to work on a wow metaverse. Honestly they should yeah spy dumping. Oh yeah, getting rinsed, so qqq i'll.

Just keep it up on this. Oh yeah come on, give us a rally into the clothes, not this crap. What are we going to bounce off 38 too, we'll see someone here says. I have three of your courses kev totally worth it life-changing education wish they teach that in school.

Well, thank you for saying that some people are gon na think you're paid you are not paid. I appreciate you. Thank you. Thank you, natty gas.

You know i don't track gas, unfortunately, but i'm watching the uso for oil short-term call after the dip today i see the play you're trying to make. Maybe you know who knows if you, if you could get three if you farm three percent off it on the stock tomorrow, when it rebounds a little bit and and that ends up making you nine or ten percent on an option? Maybe, but it's not it's not! The speculation i would make i'm dumping a bunch of money into a renovation for a pool, a garage and a new kitchen at my personal residence. How do you recommend financing this? We found someone to upset me. It's like you're a plant.

It's perfect all right! Let me compose myself here so josh here is dumping his money into a renovation for a pool, a garage and a new kitchen at his personal residence. The only way you should be spending that kind of money is, if you are a multi-millionaire, because i guarantee you, you are going to end up spending somewhere around 150 grand on a stupid pool, probably 50 grand at least on a stupid kitchen. You should get an ikea kitchen for 13 grand instead, although even ikea's had to raise their prices. Recently, you'll probably spend 30 grand doing what you could be doing for three grand in a garage because you're gon na hire a licensed contractor who's booked out for six months and you're wasting all your money.

So if you really want to spend 250 grand throwing it into your personal residence while the real estate market's topping out as opposed to buying the dip on some of these juicy stocks, not financial advice, that's stupid unless you're a multi-millionaire, you just want to spend the Money, good one josh. This is honestly how i feel. Ah, a stupid mac keeps lying. Yeah qqq dropping a little bit into the clothes there.

Now down, 1.3. Oh, but how would you finance it? I guess i never answered your question. Uh yeah, i wouldn't i mean a home equity line of credit or refinance, but but again i would use that to invest crypto fully adopted. Oh, it depends uh, i mean, certainly not until we have full regulation, which will be a while recommend the stock disney.

Clearly missed last night's video who's. Last night, oh, oh, oh, the video. I posted that's right, yeah yeah! I made a whole video about that. Owning a mac is dumb, completely agree: tesla hodling, that's good selling, all my property.

No, not everything heloc ready to be spent. Yeah, how do i get a loan for raw untouched land? You dump the raw untouched land? That's how you get a loan. I don't know who lance is you buy real estate if it's five to ten percent discounted yeah, because i i believe by the time real estate is five to ten percent. Discounted you'll actually see stocks higher, so i'll, probably take money from stocks and throw it into real estate again planning on selling your tesla dumping it into oh, my gosh y'all just killing me.

I got a new imac too. I don't know. I honestly. I probably do need to buy a new mac, because this one's just sucking theory of one ounce of gold per 1 000 barrels of russian oil.

How likely is the theory of wrong and that's the goal? Well, that'd be 2. 000 that'd be two dollars a barrel. No very unlikely it's brush and oil is probably selling for 50 bucks. I don't know, i'm sure, there's a way to look that up.

I don't know short owlette for a trade, probably wouldn't short outlet to buy the dipper not to buy the dip. That's the question. Uh, this is not a heavy opportunity to buy the dip. I i this is.

This is not the kind of dip i would be buying i've been. I would nibble on certain stocks. Don't get me wrong, i mean i. I bought a little bit of a couple ones that i wanted to increase my allocation to, but i don't think this is like this is the you know.

A big dip opportunity like this is just like if, if yesterday didn't happen, is kind of what this is. You know and monday it was still great. I mean like a lot of these stocks are still way well higher than where they were. I mean here just zoom out on the day, chart right uh.

So so what we're like? We can't even break the 38.2 on the qqq. Let's look at spy here bell in three minutes by the way uh, you know we're sitting at the same same place over here. Uh we've got we're two points away: three points away from the 38.2 on the spy, so we're exactly the same level of retracement. Here.

Personally i don't see this is a big deal. Uh gamestop is actually catching up. A passing bypassing amc again a little bit right now. Ah, look at it having trouble staying above this line.

I don't know what it is with the 142 line for gme and then amc. I actually don't have any lines drawn here until we get to about 28.81, which i think is a little bullish for for retail movement. Cardano came down after topping out around one nine today uh, i probably have a basis around this thing of average. Let's see seven on that side, probably more like 15.

Probably my basis on this is like 95 cents, 94, 95 cents or something like that. So take it, but um yeah. I really like cardano anywho, okay, so two minutes two minutes to go best. 401K funds.

I just buy spy or or qqq you know really. You should be focused on building your wealth with uh income and real estate. Is there a military discount sure email me kevin me, kevin.com uh, probably not on the nfts. I i don't know.

I don't know like nfps that provide value are okay, in my opinion, like i think, nfts as as concert or venue entrance tickets. Those are a good idea that i, like that way. It's like whoever the hauler is can like buy and then right. They have resale value right because somebody could then like sell it to somebody else, and somebody else could get the benefit from it.

That kind of stuff i like and then with some sort of like royalty kick in between right. I i'd like those kind of nfts. I'm okay with yeah. I like that a lot for concerts but uh, no just just straight up jpegs eh! Your courses have helped me man thanks guitar, nice, student discount, sure email me kevin at mechanic.com, uh, all right.

We got the bell coming up here shortly. Let's go listening to sarah smp session lows right now, down 54 points about 1.2 percent lower and now weaker for the week joining the dow in that territory. Financials are the biggest losers on the s p right now down 1.8 percent for the group, as yields go lower today, energy and utilities are the only sectors that are higher on the day. Now is down about 1.3 percent almost 450 points.

The nasdaq also is down a little bit weaker than the rest of the market. So is the russell 2000 index of small caps nasdaq down 1.3 there into the close about seven percent off the record highs for the s p, that's gon na do it! For me, i'm closing down have a great evening. Everyone i'll send it to scott wapner into overtime. You know they changed it up a a little bit.

They used to always show what the indices closed for now now it's they flip it around down down. One point: two: nine percent s p down one point, two three percent and then uh qq over here, i want to say, was what 1.3 something i'll find out on the day chart today we were down, doesn't show yet now whatever it was. Like one point, three percent anyway, uh kind of fell into the close there did not get any kind of dip buy. We broke the lows of the day, unfortunately right at the close uh look at that that triple bounce that we almost had right here.

One two three and it's just on the minute chart. So it's not that big of a deal russian ward discount there you go exactly uh, tattooed chef, hodler discount. No, you pay extra military discount. You email me kevin at mechanic.com all right! Well, so there we go market is closed.

Uh look. I want to be very clear because we are going to go through this nasty volatility for a while meet kevin is a bull below 61.8. Okay, so from this line down, kevin is a bull above this line. Kevin thinks we're seeing euphoria and we're a bear.

Okay. So so that way, there's no confusion. Let's see how to test the closed out 9.99. Really! Oh, that's priceless wow! Look at the little wedge! It formed over here at the end, yeah all right! Well, new mom discounts deal worker discount, oh my gosh, there's too many too many too many herpes discount divorce discount.

Oh my gosh, everybody's hurting you're, just hurting me anyway, all right! Well, i think that does it we got to enjoy the market close together. Oil worker discount - i love you all all right! Well, good! Luck out! There we'll see you.