Hey welcome back to the podcast. I've got the notorious r.o.b. My main man, jason pantana in the house, rob first of all for the people that don't know you give them a little bit of backstory, because this is going to be a wild, crazy or the boringest podcast ever yeah. I i i was going to say i have this very weird backstory, so uh i'll start with the real estate.

How about this because before real said, a bunch of stuff too um? But i started at uh real estate back when it was called sending yeah a commercial way back way back henry silverman. Exactly yes, yes way back um so did uh starting commercial real estate left. There uh went to a real estate data company that shall remain nameless and i started my business in 2009 and you started a consulting agency. That's right right and you guys have touched a lot of different pieces of the industry which we're gon na get into in a minute.

But i want to share a little backstory yeah um. I get a phone call from brad emman, hey we'd like you to come, speak at the intercom. I remember the scene, you know what i'm saying right and he says he's like tom. Here's, the setting right i'm trying to do my best brad yeah um.

You know shock and awe right. You know everything. It's got to be crazy. I was like okay bro.

What do you want to do? He says um you're, going to get up on stage and you're going to debate with rob the value of coaching, and i was like all right. I could do that right like i. I didn't really think. No, it wasn't.

It was like value of brokerage or something no, it was coaching. Was it close? I promise because it was permanently great because you and i were sitting in the green room and we're like how are we gon na, like debate like and and basically we had a love fest for coaching in the agents and it turned into the green room yeah In the green room and there's like you have to argue, you have to debate, i'm like all right, i'm a lawyer by training. I can argue any side of anything sure why not and we, but i i just remember, walking away thinking um because i you know from re.net days, yeah, jim barks and all those yeah justin the joy and i knew like i knew your persona in the marketplace. I knew he was a smart guy, i knew so i was, i was excited about it and slightly nervous, which only got me more fired up.

Then we meet in the green room. I'm like he's a total teddy bear like this is gon na, be great. So tell us about your consulting agency and then i want to talk about the industry today and then going forward. That's really what we want.

Yeah yeah and you know my consulting agency at 70s associates. My sole associate is sitting off screen right there. Yes, look! Basically, i felt like i had to make a decision when you start a consultancy right, do you want to go? You know, make the money if you will or work on cool projects. I chose cool projects.

Yes, so you can't do both it's hard to do both. Okay, it's really hard to do both in our industry, specifically yeah. Maybe we'll get into that um, no, we'll definitely get in yeah but uh, so long story short i've worked with. Basically some of the biggest you know, largest firms.

I don't talk about them because i felt like i felt like just the fact that i'm working with them that's none of anybody's business. You know, but everyone. I know who runs all those companies you're on their list. Yeah.

You know so i'm real controversial. You know and over time, why is that? It's and i think it's because of a lot of that, where i i feel like as a consultant, my jobs tell my clients what they need to hear: no, not what they want to hear yeah and a lot of times, especially some of these bigger companies. That's real uncomfortable, give us an example as an example, i won't talk about like a client work, but one of the most uh controversial blog posts early on in my blog career, was when i offhandedly mentioned that brokerage brands. Don't matter? Oh, i remember because it was all about age and personal brand right now.

This was something i got context for how long ago that was that was like 2010 yep, 2011.. Okay - and i think you were one of the inspirations for it, because i was at the google forum yeah and the google broke down of the real estate searches. Only one percent of the consumers cared about brand. What they cared about was like the agent's trust.

That's right right - and this is i mean we're talking early 2010 on the tom ferry show. Was there a moment of time and mine was, you know typical tom ferry you were just like, but to the entire industry? I was like oh, but here's the funny part of this right. So this wasn't like a blog post, i wrote brokerage. Don't matter that's what happened.

It was something something else about personal brands and this you know by the way bro right. So that's the offense like you got ta go, and this is back in the early social media re net days. It was all about personal brand building a personal brand. Absolutely as an agent.

You have to build a personal brand online. You can't rely on the broker's brand, because broker's brands don't matter it was just like that. Yeah kaboom, like this humongous wave and i'm like timeout. I didn't come up with this.

I i literally repeat it and i remember very distinct at the time. It's still on youtube somewhere, yep keller williams had released a series of videos. That's right! That's right! Interviews with consumers, saying brokerage brand, doesn't matter! It's the asian brand that matters yep, that was in like 2008, 2009 and somehow i'm i'm the right. But people still love to go online and find anything i mean now we're in the woke culture of the cancer culture so you're just lucky.

It wasn't in 2021, when you wrote that right right, because maybe you'd been killed right. So that's somehow, i think i've gotten to this point where i just call it like it is yeah. You know, and i think my tagline over the years has become. I have strong opinions, weakly held yes, strong opinions, dot, dot, dot, weekly weekly help.

I can be just once a week if the data comes out the other way right. I will change my mind. I produce one opinion a week exactly it's like look uh. This is what i believe, but maybe i'm wrong, so so in your in the totality of your career.

Where were you most right and where were you most wrong? I think i was most right when in 2013 i think it was. I did a uh engagement. I can talk about them because they're now no longer around yeah, i was uh doing an engagement with trulia yep and i did a strategy memo for them. I said agent teams are the future of this industry.

You guys need to pivot everything. Build products. Do everything for agent teams and and what did pete and the the gangster they thought it was great, they started it and then, like six months later, they were acquired yeah. That was the end of that.

So you know interesting. I think that's when i was the most correct you and the late great god bless them ken jenny. Yes, right, we're doing a lot of work with truly at the time. Ken's been a friend a friend of mine since 1991 um, and they were all saying that so i i agree.

Where were you wrong? I think, and you were right way more. Maybe you just can't say the company. Where was i wrong? Gosh? I think i was wrong most about right because again, when i started writing, it was right after the bubble had burst yeah, and i really thought the federal government was going to go after it like which bubble the 99 bubble or no, the uh, like 2001 yeah Grapefruit yeah that one and i remember - writing a whole lot of stuff about. You - know the federal government, the banking system, that they were going to come after everything and fundamentally change everything and turn us to the render nation right never happened right.

Were you one of those guys that said, millennials never buy a house, i'm still one of those guys. Okay, well, you're wrong, live we'll we'll talk about it, we'll talk because it's you know popcorn right now. Here's the thing jason's, just playing tennis i'll, tell you what jump in this is a topic where i i desperately want to be wrong: yeah right because and i've been researching millennials since 2009, i'm famous for going on stage at uh, ari tech, south yeah in 2000.. Oh beans, yes, 2011.

I i go on stage to accept some award, and i said polygamy would be legal within 30 years and everyone laughed and it was obviously kind of a joke, but part of it was because i was already looking at millennial, marriage, family formation, millennial dating right in 2011., so here in 2022 last year, ivy zellman of zelda associates comes out with this giant report. Talking about the demographic challenge to real estate right right, so which is the demographic challenge to our country, correct, right, they're, they're, waiting until their 40s before they get married. If they ever get married and maybe have kids, but if you remember so again, i was a religion back in what like 2008 2004 2005 and we already had consultants coming to us telling us about millennials this. At the time it wasn't called millennials gen y gen y right, gen y is going to change real estate they're the biggest you know, population they want to live in a house, that's correct and they love everything, and i remember listening totally full of kind of foolish.

Wasn't true about me, look kind of full of and kind of missing the big picture right right, so i wrote a giant red dot. You know research paper in 18 yeah, i really delved into it, and maybe we could talk a little bit chris about this. Is i think the problem with millennials is the only millennials we see in real estate? Are the upper 15 or so elite millennials yeah yeah? We don't see, we don't interact with the bottom 85 percent yeah and they're absolutely screwed yeah things are getting really okay, so so unpack that, for us sure so, the top 15 of millennials colleges do really great jobs. They're the best educated generation we've ever had yeah.

They have the highest income levels, um, incredibly, tech, savvy. All the things that we hear. The stereotypes are true about them. Yes, they're the world travelers.

They don't want to own because they want to rent because they don't have all the options. But when it comes they're not going to own a car they'll like airbnb, but once they decide, you know it's time to buy a house they're like we're going to skip the starter home, we're going to go right to our dream home yep, because i'm a facebook Data engineer at facebook and you're a lawyer, our collective household income is 480 000 yeah and we have no kids so we're gon na buy the million million and a half dollar house. And here we go that's the top fifteen percent yeah the bottom. Eighty-Five 85.

We're talking about overburden with college debt, they're, underemployed or unemployed, they're working, three gig jobs, yeah with no benefits yeah and their wages haven't grown in 10 years, they're, absolutely screwed. So it's really bad, but the scenario the hard part no but again like there's so much competing data and - and therein lies the challenge right, like you know like you're, only as good as the data that you read and you can read one side that says millennials Are thriving like they've, never thrived before they're in total command of the job market? They can do whatever they want. They get paid what they want, they can work from home and then you're telling me that 85 percent of them are basically screwed correct, because i think if you look at the top ten percent, top 15 percent sure everything that is true, yeah you're a high. You know in val in the demand you know: crypto developer sure you command the job market, yes, but there are very few of you, yeah and i think, over time, more people are starting to wake up to this, and i i'll give an example: gary vaynerchuk, yeah Who's been terribly saying: don't go to college yep, which is something that right, controversial, very yeah.

Why? Because we've been telling all of the young people, since they were like wee lads, we lasses you have to go to college or you're a loser, yeah and he's like listen. The problem is, if you want to go work at google, if you want to get one of these top flight software engineer jobs, guess what they're not coming to recruit at a community college computer science department? No, if you don't go to stanford, if you don't go to mit you're, not getting that job, and he makes the point over and over and over again and he does it a lot of different ways. A lot i mean gary's been on my show correct 10 times and he's been talking about that since 2009. Correct right, it hasn't changed, it hasn't changed.

It's just stuck slowly, starting to sink in the demographics issue. Yeah. I got interested in this topic and now you know by the time i was like 30. You know i was married yeah, but i remember seeing this um, i want to say it was a 60 minutes report in 2009, talking about the university of georgia and how the dating life of the universe, georgia was already lopsided because of the male to female ratio.

Sure on campus - and i think at the time it was like 55 45. today, every campus in america is 60 40 female to male yeah. So this is something i started noticing in 2010 or some time going. Okay! No! This is great.

It's it's wonderful! It's wonderful! Society, it's wonderful that women have the opportunity - that's all, of course, of course, except for dating yes, except for dating, and i said you know this is going to cause a real problem with family formation. It's going to cause problem dating and again, you know we're old guys now. Well, you're speaking, yeah he's married yeah, but you know you may be most identified with this married. Look at the peers.

You look at the younger generation, yes, they're, not dating yeah, we're not seeing the family formation rights and family formation is directly connected to housing, they're, not buying houses, so millennial home ownership rate. Even now, yeah is like 38. So then, what do you say to the person that says? Well, i see the data and all these surveys. That say you know 68 of millennials say they want to buy a house right and and sounds like.

Maybe there's a comma is what you're saying in that? Yes, i'd like to buy a house, i just can't afford it right, i'd like to buy a house all right, but there's nothing available. Also or so. Are we in that dire straits because yeah this is? This is an interesting. This is a new insight for you, like yeah.

I have a few questions i mean my first question is born out of naivety but relative to generations past. Obviously, millennials is a larger generation. Obviously, college is more expensive but relevant relative to cost of living and all things being normal. How is it really different? Because i mean you talk about the the upper 15? Well, i would assume there's a distribution of people's success and prosperity on any generation along those lines.

How is it different yeah, the the difference, the gen x, exactly right, we gen x, are kind of the last generation i think to have caught the tail end of the american boom yeah. So the shortest answer i could provide and it's a much complicated answer and i only look like an economist, i'm not an economist. You should probably talk to lauren shoon, but here's how i look at it like. If you look at the data, yeah wages have remained flat for 20 years, yeah 20 years.

Think about what's happened to the cost of everything else forget just the most recent inflation bubble, correct right, correct so just this last year average wage actually went down by 2.4 percent yeah in real terms, yeah. Well, i mean that's, that's the difference yeah, so yeah i mean i graduated college. In 93., things weren't great. There was a bit of a mini recession going at the time and the job market kind of sucked yeah.

But you know you could buy a house in 1993. pennies compared to today and back to silicon valley in newport beach in new york city. Like miami forget it right, but back then it was like it wasn't today. It wasn't like in the 60s, like the boomers, had to wear five months of salary, you could buy a house right.

It wasn't quite that for us, it might have been. You know you have to save up for a year or two, and then you could have the down payment for a house, and now you weren't saying no to everything else in your life that you could possibly want, because it was so disproportionate, correct, right, correct. It was the kind of thing where i felt like when we gen x, when we were coming out of college when we were young, it was a matter of okay. You know what let's save a little bit: let's uh, let's scrimp a bit and we could get enough of a down payment to get a mortgage to get a house.

Now and again i i bought my first house in new york, new jersey area. Now i can't imagine that sounds like you went to the meadowlands right. Well, we did events like we're in the new york area. Meadowlands i lived, i mean we went to no burn, which was a real nice suburb, yeah right, but and we thought - oh, my god, this is so expensive and our little tiny, you know - starter home - was half a million dollars right in 2001, like 2003 2004.

That house today is, i don't think, a 20 30 year old couple professional making good money - i don't they could even dream of owning the house yeah unless they have family money yeah unless they have something else going on okay. So i want to that's what i'm getting at yeah, so i'm gon na go a totally different direction. So when i worked for real jeep yeah um - and i was looking, this was later than you yeah, but when i worked there, we were looking at a house in the jersey suburbs and we were just sticker shocked at the cost, plus the taxes, yep yep right And we were winning in hoboken, which we loved. It was great, we had a blast, but we were like we.

We had our first son and we were like okay vacation's over. Where are we going to raise our family and all that kind of stuff? So we started looking and i remember um it was actually about when one of tony robbins books came out about money, management or something yeah, and i found this there's this blog article that caught my attention. It was basically like the one thing you're overlooking for financial freedom, there's something to that effect. I was like i clicked it to read it and the opening line was move period and then he went a couple of lines down and he basically talked about like if you're in a really expensive area move.

You should move yes, and i didn't listen to that. Vice advice directly, but that, coupled with several other things, we were like yeah. Why am i? Why are we here right and we right? We did move yeah, we're not a tree yeah, we're not plants out here yeah and it's really smart. But let me point out a couple things number one you're working at reality: yeah number two you're married yeah.

How old were you when you were doing this? I was late 20s hitting 30. think about that yeah. What i'm saying is you look at the marriage rates right now? Late, 20s. 30S.

The marriage rate among millennials and gen z is at an all-time low, yeah all-time low. You hear that courtney, birth, rape, you're special. You married two, no she's getting married. Congratulations and already in her first house and her you know her and her fiance are killing.

This is my point. I'm saying they're in the 15 we're the 15 yeah right. So let's go a different direction: okay, um! I am convinced, as i as like. Only a few times in my career, if i come out and said, here's what i think is going to happen in the future of real estate and i think, back to like 2014-15, when i'm like teams are going to take over the world teams are going to Be sold like brokerages, because all these public traded companies got to buy somebody right, big whales are going to dominate.

Aka hedge funds are going to just buy as much as they can right. So i'm making these - i don't know vision, proclamation whatever you want to call it and then more recently it's been more about um, the on-demand consumer right and you know so much what we talked about at the 2020 summit um. But now i'm thinking a lot about these sort of existential threats and a lot of it is just the lack of insight, foresight, information around blockchain, right, smart contracts and then the companies that have done an extraordinary job rob basically disintermediating the agent and saying whether it's Buy from us direct or come to us direct and then we will then sell that lead to somebody else right. I made the prediction that 50 of all transactions in the next four or five years, 50 percent - will have a referral fee attached to it in some way, whether that's through that relocation or an arbitrage company agent, asia, ref, there's what i call egregious and non-egregious referral Fees, non-egregious, 25 sure right, it's the industry.

It's always been that way and it's interesting talking like a genome before i use my personal client he's like like. Let me give you the data on home services. We unpack that. I can't share that here, but like yeah, we know what it is.

We know it is it really. We know back in the day of prudential uh earl lee yeah if it wasn't for relocation that prudential wouldn't have any revenue yep. So so we see this, but you look at it differently. I don't know what are the three to five biggest things that that you think this is what's coming next, what people need to be prepared for? So i i think i wrote a posting i'm doing a little pivot this year right, it's like i'm, giving up consulting okay, piss, less people off like that.

So here's the thing about. So i'm going to comment about this. I never set out to piss people off. I started to tell it like: i see it and that happens to piss people off right, i'm like i'm so sorry yeah.

I don't do this to piss you off. You might tell pretty and a few others that i love like i mean i'm just just think it is what it is right um, but i think there are four major mega trends: that's going to influence everything which therefore will influence real estate. Yes, demographics is one we just talked about that. The second one to me is we'll call it loosely inflation yeah, but it's basically money printing for sure for sure, and i think that is startling if people knew how much money was printed just in the last 24 months, so 40 or so of the entire dollars In existence in the last few years in the last two years, yeah and we're now starting to see the impact of that and there's all these things that flow out of that.

So that's two, the third one to me is blockchain met over all this stuff, but i call it generally speaking, decentralization yes right, so the converse of what you said like you're right, the last 20 years, everything is centralized yeah everything's, going to google everything right right. I kind of feel like the next big wave might be decentralization through a variety of ways: yeah, so that's the third one and then the fourth and final one. I don't know how much of a mega trend is for the society as a whole, but for real estate, especially - and this is the one that i think is probably the most near term - is the fact that nature of agency will completely change. Essentially, buyer agency is not long for this world yeah and i don't think as an industry, we know yet what to do about that.

I didn't say: yep like i agreed. I just said yes, yes, exactly yeah, and so here's the interesting thing like right and over the last i don't know three years. I've had a lot of conversations around this specific class, and this is my general takeaway most talking doj nar, all of it. The reason why you should be really happy to pay all of your dues to the national association of realtors is right now right now, you're like can i prepay for the next five years, except that i don't see them winning, but that's beside the that's yeah.

The point and we have to define what winning is - and we just can't get around that, but i think the everyone i spoke in the last three years or so if they have paid any attention, yeah and i'll. So do you know it? Basically, it comes down to it's a matter of when not. If no one believes that our current system cooperation compensation will survive yeah, they just disagree on when things are going to change and we have not yet thought through what that means, then, for brokers for agents for mls's for realtor associates tech companies for zillow. We just haven't done you and i are well traveled yeah.

This is not unlike what you look at when you see uh south africa, europe, you see australia, you see all of europe. You see a lot of the the more organized real estate middle east. Right, i mean it's, it's one in one, it's two and two: it's three percent. You guys figured out that we'll see afterwards like it's like.

I think people get so landlocked in this north american and i would even put like you know all the major cities in mexico up right through canada, that we've had this set way of doing things by side, sell side right. So do you do you hallucinate? What is your hallucination? Do you think in the next couple years we're gon na see this evaporate on the buy side, and then the sell side's going to go to three or do you think it's going to be a four or five? I think the south side is like one and a half, or so maybe two right um and i'm very europe, it's that. But that's why i say that okay, but that doesn't work in europe, and this is my central theme like the argument is having been there for now, a decade plus with one of my personal clients, just 30, somewhat thousand agents right remax of europe, michael pulser and Family, we have been on this, like crusade, which feels right in europe right. You know we're going to get people to cooperate, yeah we're going to get agents to take a key from the seller and put it in a safe in the office.

So when somebody calls and wants to see the property we can take it out of the safe, i'm not kidding people and show them the apartment. Like that's going on right now and we're seeing we're seeing this progression towards maybe a more western way of doing it, which is not the intent for my europeans watching, but it's it's to serve the customer. How does this, how does this elimination of buy side actually serve the client, i think so it's so. Let me put it differently: it's not like you're going to outlaw buyer agency yeah you're, just gon na outlaw sellers paying for it.

Yes, i think that's what's coming, how does that serve the customer? I depends on who you're talking about yeah right, because the argument, i think from the ftc from the doj from the you know that side yeah is this - will drop the price right. It will make things cheaper, yeah and i think there's a lot of truth to that. One of the things i do like about it, i'm not i'm not a huge fan, necessarily i'm kind of neutral, but there is one aspect that i am a big fan of, and this is something that you guys know very well, one of the biggest problems with Our industry and i've been saying this for 10 years is the fact that you could have the very best most professional agent right who's, one of your personal clients and is up to date on every last latest thing. Whether i use that guy or somebody who just got his license last week, yeah, i pay the same yeah, that's yeah.

The fact that we have no price signals in this industry is total bull yeah and it's being maintained by the system that we have built over time. You know it wasn't out of some nefarious evil purpose. Just let's cooperate, you bring me a buyer, i'll pay, you whatever, but rob. We see that and first of all i appreciate that perspective and i think everybody listening and probably at least a lot of our clients went because we say this is a skills market.

This is a track record market and right now, when there's no inventory, you don't want to go to the brand new agent and say: hey, find me a house, you want to call the best agent in town and say who's got the pocket listings. How do i get access? That's right, how can i leverage your relationship and and and like i have three different attorneys, the low mid and like gon na kill you that's right right like and you pay appropriately. Do you think it's going to go that way? I think it's going to go like that menu of services. I think it's going to go.

I i really do think real estate will become a lot more like legal services. Yeah right. Look! If you just need someone to draft a little know: legal zoom, google yeah. Don't do that right, you don't really need, oh, but but that didn't work with ibuyer with power.

Buyer, like we're seeing what we're seeing this sort of like um oversimplification of the transaction right. The ease of it like we're not seeing it work at scale, and maybe ibuyer, is the wrong metaphor. But look at like even like the companies like knock and easy, knock and somebody's that are making it easier, no one's doing it. It's such a small percentage.

It's such a small percentage of the transaction, but it's so new. It's like literally brand new. That's like saying: bitcoin's market cap is only a trillion dollars, bitcoin's only 13 years old and i'm strong on bitcoin, so i mean i buying was invented in 2014. Yes, so i'm like: okay, okay, like we'll see what opens quarters notorious rob's, telling me to chill out yeah yeah yeah, but i don't know i'm kind of with you, yes and maybe listen, i'm obviously very jaded towards professionalism.

The experience of agents touting that track record. I don't believe new agents should come in the industry and just start they should be on a team, they should be or or a team ridge or a brokerage. It runs something because, because the failure rate is the failure is the failure rate. I just man, the federal government getting involved in, like how agents should be paid just just right.

I mean because what was last time the federal government did something you're like that worked hey dude like in my personal life, i'm an anarcho-capitalist, so you know you. I know i think the state is just evil. Yes, i'm just literally describing what i see. I know i know i'm not i'm not yeah.

So it's exactly it's gon na happen. It's frustrating right, it's gon na happen and what the only the only upside that i see coming from that is. If we restore price signals to the industry yeah, then you start asking: why is this agent charging 500 an hour right? This other agent is charging 50 an hour right, hey. You know.

I just need someone to just do some paperwork for me on this easy condo, sale, yeah fifty dollars an hour, guys fine yeah, i'm doing some massive 35 million dollar. You know oceanfront with complicated environmental issues right. I need the 500 guy right and i think we're going to see that play out and i think we're going to have to build so here's the challenge you and i have been around the re.net, where i funny to even use that phrase anymore, because that's so Old school, but we all we've all seen the pitch decks on these deals of we're gon na, be the uber of right like we're gon na make simplify. You know simplifying this and stuff like and again you're right, it's early, yeah um.

I just think there's so much inertia around. There is the normality and, of course it feels like um. It feels like the crazy one percent over here and the crazy one percent over here. Getting all the noise and like 98 in the middle are like.

I just want to buy a house yeah, but so this is how i sort of think about that, though right is, the consumer is not going to know that we're not going to see that massive thing until it hits a tipping point yep. In other words, i very distinctly remember when uber was first launched. I do too right - and i i can't remember the year anymore, but i remember i was in san francisco for hitmen yeah and somebody's like pulling out their phone. I mean i'll call an uber, i'm like what that was an uber yeah.

It's like yeah, it's just uh. You call a black car using your phone kind of deal. I was like that's stupid. You know i was like this was like whatever it is right.

I want to sit in the gross taxi right right, i mean, but we just didn't and then it took maybe two years yeah and then i took my first uber ride. Yeah i haven't taken a taxi since then right right. So my point is, i think, and this is what we have to watch with open door. This is what we have to watch with eye buyers with power buyers.

You know again, maybe you guys have done this study. I want. I want someone to go and talk to those consumers and ask them: would you do it the old way yeah once you've experienced that would you go deal with yeah, i'm going to bet the most unwell yeah and that's something i've written about for last five years. Right we both agree that holding the experience and the emotion of helping somebody buy and sell real estate, so so, let's i want to i want to touch on this just for a second.

So what do we tell our friends watching this right now that are are now like you know, oh my god. What does this mean to me like we're? Just so, just tactically we're like better start we're hearing your buyer consultation, yep, better start taking the time to show people what it is that you do and why your value is there, because, if you're just going to do this sure i'll show you the house, that's A 50 an hour job right, like what we need to be is like. Let me help you understand whether you're buying your 15th house, your first house, the experience and i'm going to do it because you're showing value this is. This is what i should be interviewing.

You right on my podcast, because here's how i look at i have some ideas, but i'm not a coach right yeah, but you have ideas and i want your ideas right. So i'll tell you the ideas and then you could tell me like well, you know that's totally crazy and then we could talk about it. I think my ideas go like this in the short term, like number one, if i were coaching some agent today, the number one thing i think i would tell them is you need to understand? What's going on inflation right, you need to know what's going on with rates, you need to get a little bit of appreciated. Why? Because if there, if there's ever a time that you should be going to any of your any of your young clients, any of your clients period, who are even moderately undefensed, if you do not go and take a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at three and a half percent.

Yes, when nominal inflation is seven brian you're listening right go sell. Whatever else you got, ta sell and buy a freaking house right, even if it's in a town or an area you don't wan na, live in. You look at the 50-year case, study of inflation and and the only thing that outperforms it every time forever is a house. It's just so i'm like look if you once agents.

I don't understand that because you know we do the whole like millennials want to buy a house, but they can't then rent versus own like dude. Forget all that to some extent. I agree, forget all that forget all that, to some extent right three and a half percent right when it's when there's money and we're dealing with money, it's a different scenario, yeah versus right. What i want to do in convenience.

This is this is your. I think. That's important short term yeah, there's 7000 videos from our clients immediately your house versus inflation, which one wins yeah and i i agree like we can sit here and speculate about what we see potentially coming, but whatever that is. It only benefits an agent if they really say you know what i'm going to absolutely dial in my value proposition for buyers and sellers be more clear in how i communicate that with my marketing messages and focus on delivering an unbelievable experience and building loyalty within my Database right there's a second piece of this right, and i think this is the part where i'm real curious about.

When i look at training when i look at a lot of the education, when i look at the coaching when i look at a lot of that in the industry today, a lot of is around sales skills and these soft skills and i'm not saying they're, not Important, of course, they're important. That's what agents are really great at, however, with what's coming, there might have to be a lot more product skills and products. I was thinking the same thing when you were talking before, because you know it's one thing to be like my value is: i can hold your hands, i could, i know, cut that's great and all, but if i'm paying you by the hour, i need to know That you have looked at every home builder in this neighborhood. One thousand.

You know you know the different types of pipe. That's in this house versus that house yeah. You know the type of construction. That's like i need you're speaking you're speaking to our clients, love language right now, because that's the degree of separation right.

I think the true market expert, who says no rob you and your wife. You need to be over here and let me tell you why, because i took the time to learn everything: business you're, not you're, non-negotiable, something that matters to you. It's this this and this and here's why or even at a minimum like. Why is this house so expensive right? Well, it's because this house was built by a builder for his daughter back in 1948 and he used the very best materials and yeah blah blah blah, and over the years this house had the fewest amount of flooding or whatever, whatever it is, whatever it is, but That product knowledge details, that's the details, that's the difference between a 700 an hour agent and a 50 an hour asia, and i don't think we as an industry focuses on that enough yeah.

So i'm glad to hear you guys are doing it because yeah that's going to be the next wave, because that's how i look at it. If something happens, if there's massive disruption, yeah and it does come down to not only is it buyer consultation like look the seller's going to pay me, but if they don't you're going to pay me yeah, that's just to some extent sales talk it's more like i'm An expert i can help you. Yes, i can help. You save me how i earn my feet correct.

My job is to navigate bing, bing, bing, bang and here's. Why i'm worth it right? I'm gon na help you avoid potentially making a giant mistake, because i know everything about this neighborhood. I know everything about every house. That's in this area and my company, my relationships with my network, all the pocket listings all coming soon and that's all of that that so we're one thousand percent aligned.

I think that's the second piece um and then beyond that. I think it's just don't worry it's. I know it sounds a little weird. I do feel like every successful person worries.

No, i know, but here's what i mean like. Could you mention block chain? You mentioned metaphors yeah, i'm seeing a lot of people get all like wired wound up about that or they get wound up by doj ftc and i'm like listen unless you have a c in front of your name. Unless your job is to do strategy yeah, i don't know you should worry, yeah call your past clients, you know what i mean like yeah, i feel like. If you are, if you are on the ground floor, i'm not saying don't be interested from a personal story.

Yes, yes, but i don't know how much you should like stay awake at night wondering about what's going to happen with high buying and disruption yeah. Now, if you're, the ceo of a brokerage, that's your job! Your job is to worry about that. So your agents don't have to worry about that, but you're genoblafar, you better, be worrying about what's happening with macroeconomics and you know war with russia, whatever the hell saturday morning yeah. How was your week, but that's why you you know right.

That's what that's! Why that's right? Yes and yeah? That's that's how i look at it so like calm down to some extent yeah, but to the extent you want to focus focus on like real product expertise. I i will just say this when it comes to blockchain and smart contracts and nfts and cryptocurrency um. The thing that i tell people is, i can remember in like 14 15 16 saying to people if you're going to be culturally relevant today and you're in the high end you're in silicon valley, you're in miami you're in new york city you're in toronto. Uh.

If you don't have on your card on your postcard on your website, have something that's written in chinese, something that's written in mandarin. You've lost some some cultural relevancy for the people who are buying in mass, and i - and i liken that to today when a 27 year old calls you and says hi, i'm interested in that two million dollar house um. I've got like seven million dollars in my meta wallet and i'm just trying to figure out how i'm going to exchange this, and do you have someone i should talk to your friend and if that agent isn't like, of course, no problem yeah. You know the number one crypto, you know: property who's, a great company that does transactions like if they, if they just they, don't have to master it.

No, but they better be aware of it, because, if they're not like, i tell the story of uh maxine gallons. I think you bet, i don't know if you know the story: okay, so maxine legendary agent yeah. She calls me and says: okay, you were right and i was like what about she goes. You know, i don't really like cello.

She goes, but i got called on this like 10 million dollar listing yeah and i meet the guy and i meet his wife and we're walking around the house and back seeing you. I love you she's, like i'm walking through the house and the guy kind of says to me casually hey. So what do you think about zillow? She goes. You know zillow's a really important website.

You know they're. It's interesting that they're putting out this data um and you know, agents like myself. We need to partner with me goes: that's good, because my son started it. That was a 10 million listing that she got from the late great joe spencer's dad right and she said it to me.

I was like because my point is like cultural relevancy yeah, you don't have to master blockchain, but you better understand it. You better understand smart contracts. You better have some understanding of like why a home might be converted into an nft. You don't have to do it.

You don't have to buy them, but you better at least understand it, because that 27 year old that 32 year old, i mean the guys i'm talking to 55 that are super long on crypto. You better understand because they're buying houses right. So i that's that's right. Not on a soapbox right but just stay aware.

I i would also like what you're saying like if we're gon na i'm having all these thoughts, you're making me think about like the division of labor and right um, i'm thinking about health care and how general practice. Doctors became specialists and actually made things more expensive over time. And how is this going to plan out what we're doing right, like you're, going to start subdividing the scope and role of an agent based upon what you're, like if your scenario, for instance, but then i'm like looking at what you're saying it's like, i think the Focus now, as an agent is okay, i help folks buy and sell houses right. So therefore, my expertise should really be centered around anything transaction related.

Yes, i should really double down on the transaction and how do i help people buy and sell houses in that regard? Right because there are a lot of other, i think what could be potentially tangential kind of pursuits and chases and interest that may not really bolster up your value proposition as a broker. Yes, i don't know, i don't know if that thought means right now is so happy. You said tangential tangential a tangent, that's like his all-time favorite word yeah! Okay! So before we leave there's an important point, i think to be right there, which is kind of what you said. I think you have to have some basic knowledge of what this technology means.

Yes, it's certainly don't go. You know like learn the intricacies of like different blockchains, like that's, not necessary right, you just need to know kind of what it potentially could do to your client. The better thing might be, though, to know somebody who really is an expert like the agent that would wear the person that spoke mandarin or russian and right right, i'm joined my team, i need you, and this is where we start pivoting, to be a little bit More, like commercial, real estate, yeah and more like law firms, yeah right, so you have some lawyer who's like well, you just you just made a lot of agents either nervous or they should be excited by monday through friday, but done at noon on friday. No, it's not no nights, oh i'm sorry, commercial, real estate and lawyers, yeah lawyers.

I don't know you know that 100 depends on the practice. The thing true, but if i very often remember like you, have the the main partner who has the client relationship for sure, but you know there's an international bankruptcy issue. Of course here's our special he's going to come on. Oh, you want to do a special, so i think that's when we think about asian teams and how they've been constructed under the millionaire real estate agent model.

Okay, you know that whole model of today - it's really. I don't even know what to call it's more like, like a like a, i don't know like a guerrilla tribe. You know like uh, like kingdoms, yeah yeah. I think what it eventually needs to evolve to is more like specialist.

You know coming together to provide overall, better service yeah on a case-by-case basis and then as needed. Who knows how that goes right? So that's the first thing. The second thing i would point out kind of related. I think agents are paying a lot of attention to things like crypto and blockchain and i think even the luxury high-end.

That makes a lot of sense. If you're more middle-class middle-end, i would pay a lot more attention to property management for sure this is like my big thing this year. Sorry last year was like two brokerages, i'm telling them. You need to start thinking about horizontal integration, yeah of property management and brokerage.

I think to agents, especially on teams. You need to start thinking about that as well. If you look at um kkr heritage, all these companies that are buying properties in mass, we see the numbers. It's like 21 million properties owned, be like visits 21 million sfrs owned in the u.s 80 of them by guys, like us, and then 20 percent by the kkr's of the world that have these monster funds um.

I agree. I would argue, though, the challenge that they still face is not enough inventory right. Do you want to mean, like i say, to a lot of my broker clients, because we both you know we work with all these brokers? Is you know, have you gone and looked at your entire marketplace and said, show me every zone for two, but there's one on it, because why aren't you getting every one of your agents to go, build and create the inventory right they like? Do we really have an inventory crisis? Yes right, but i think what we really have is a lack of execution. That's a part of it, but i think it's also.

The culture is so different in property management sales. I'm just saying right now that i think it's behooves agents yeah to start trying to cross that culture yeah and for property managed to start crossing the other way as well, because you mentioned the inventory thing i came out of commercials, you didn't know, there's a party Going on in my site, while you're on the podcast - yes hey, you know it's like they think about busting their tops, but i'm starting playing some music. So uh, i came out commercial state and i remember very differently my mentor at the time telling me look. We do property management yeah, not because it makes money we do property match because it lets us control the inventory.

This is jay pitts of the world, so we have a lot of clients that own property management companies right, but i want to just acknowledge the people out there. If you look at the math on it. First of all, they trade for great multiples, seven, eight nine times versus a real estate brokerage, but you got ta, have there's a number in every market where it makes sense or a dozen correct if you're, managing 50 properties, no you're dying if you're imagining 150 200. 300, you make a little bit of money, but now you got that critical mass of like turnover opportunities, building opportunities, fix some flip opportunities.

It's it's really impressive! Literally. If i were one of your clients, you know big agent team i'll be having a conversation with every property management company in my market to be like. What can? What can we do here right right? How can i be of service? How can i help you? How can you help me? I can bring you business, i just want listings right right or i want buyers right, because some of those buyers are graduating i want to yes, can i do a seminar we just talked about this yeah? Can i go in front of your renters? Do a free seminar talking about three and a half percent 30-year fixed rate versus seven percent inflation? Yeah? Do you maybe want to buy yeah yeah? You know especially yeah, i think yeah. I think a lot of property managers are like no, no, the property management, guys kind of want to find that right, because they don't want to do sales.

I'm with you, i'm with you. If they were licensed and you could pay a referral fee, yeah keep it on the up and up and right um. No, i think, there's a lot of opportunity. We see that because we have so many clients that say so.

Many maybe a hundred clients that have these property management companies and they all say it's like a geographic farm. It's like your past clients and spirit. It's a listing opportunity, but like everything else, has to be nurtured, educated keep people informed et cetera, okay, so rob let's. Let's end with the four megatrends one more time: it's demographic, demographics, it's monetary policy, inflation.

All of that, it's decentralization decentralization and then the fourth one is the end of buyer agency. Yeah. It's the end, that's the most as we know it. Yes, yes, but once again strong opinions, weakly held notorious round, that's so good! This is going to be one of those shows that rob like the people that are watching right now, like i know who you are, and they are the ones that are like.

Okay, like all right i need to, i need to dig a little deeper. I want to go a little more um like we just have this great base of clients that, like they want to be exceptional in their marketplace and whether it's someone like yourself or myself or mike del pretty or others that i've had on the show like they Just want to get in it because when they're sitting at the cocktail party - and they say, there's four mega trends happening right now, real estate, we need to be nervous about it. That's right, number one is the and, like all of a sudden, like the whole room right right, you know into them like and that's so i know a lot of my friends kind of use that little script. Can i share one more thing? No i'm going to anyways, it's my show, welcome to the jason show, so i there's this ted talk from a guy named clay, shirky um that i caught a long time ago, and he had this thing called the shirky principle, which said that the nature of an Institution is to preserve the problem for which it is the solution yeah, and so i look at agents who are listening: federal government yeah.

Well, yes, i think, there's a lot of people who probably listen to like they may be listening and saying. Okay, i can be i'm afraid i feel like i'm going to get section like margined out and, oh, my goodness or you can be listening to lindsen's lens of saying. You know what change creates opportunity right, i'm going to be putting on my ears of looking for those opportunities to listen for those opportunities, and i think, if you have a mentality of i'm going to try to preserve a problem yep, that's not. I want to identify the problem and solve it.

So if the problem is changed, yeah go look for the new problem and solve it, and you will never be without it's a great well. This is peter diamandis who's, a mentor of mine. If you talk about decentralization he's got his 60s, which is brilliant, he would say the bigger the problem, the bigger opportunity, yeah you want, you want to become a billionaire yeah solve a billion person problem. That's right so like we should be attacking with enthusiasm these problems.

That's right and then whether it's just it on our team inside of our brokerage in my own office with my past clients at sphere, my city, my state, my country, whatever it is, go after it like that's the message rob where do they follow you if they Want to catch you on instagram, probably the best place is notoriousrob.com yeah. That's my blog. I've had it since 2008, or something i'm an og of the is it is conor mcgregor upset at you like you're, like the original notorious. No, you know there was a time there was somebody who was like a rapper yo.

You have the same name notorious b.i.g. No, but that's who i patterned it after okay, i'm such a big bright fan who's, the other ian.