Holy Smokes, it's Black Friday And yeah, this is the biggest sale I've ever done on the courses linked down below. and in this, you're about to see why. Let's get into it. Okay, you don't want to know what Society a general is warning of here, but I'm going to tell you anyway.

it's not good. So think back for a moment to the Great Depression. You might not remember it. It it was like 90 years ago.

Unemployment: Rose to 24.9% During the Great Depression it didn't go to 24.9% because of inflation. It went to 24.9% because of deflation. Yes, deflation led to nearly a quarter of the active. Workforce Wanting a job, not being able to find a job.

Deflation is really bad. There's a reason why Milton Fredman tells us that inflation is an entirely monetary instrument. It's because when the Federal Reserve does not turn the money printer on to prevent deflation, Capitalism drives deflation. Everybody wants to offer lower prices so that they can get sales before a depression.

Of course, that's when the Federal Reserve usually takes out. the money printer says, nope, We're not going to let that happen. But what happens when they don't. Well, what happens when they don't is what happened during the Great Depression 3 years in a row of prices falling 7% per year.

Actually, it was about four years in a row. 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933. That unpaper looks like three years. but it's actually four years.

Four years in a row of deflation And the FED not responding. What did that lead to 25% Wow. 24.9% Unemployment A ridiculously high number. And it was as a result of our money supply turning negative.

which that's already what we're seeing happen in America Today, year-over-year the change in the money supply Contracting at the greatest Pace We've seen. well, frankly, since the Great Depression Now, this is, of course, a year-over-year change number. The money supply exploded last year. So when you normalize this figure and just look at it from a billions of dollar point of view, our money supply is obviously substantially higher than where it was at 15.4 trillion dollar during the P or leading into the pandemic.

Now we're sitting at 20.7% But the question is, how like, like are we basically mad to be talking about a deflationary depression? now? Well, let's just see what companies are saying about it. So here's Walmart Okay, uh, Walmart says well. Michael It's good to speak with you. One of the things we're going to look closely at in our business.

Uh, or is is units like? How many units Are we selling volumes of numbers, right? And we've seen good growth in units. So we're You know, we're not just entirely driving our revenues by higher prices. Things are still good Right now. We're still coming out of an inflationary cycle, right? We think we're positioned well.

We go into the end of this year and into 2024 to answer your question. though about pricing. it depends on what's driving the 2% comp. Okay, so what's driving the 2% growth that Walmart sees going forward? Well, here you go.

Listen to this. So if it's hard to extrapolate Trends from this year into that, the team here is being very focused on what could happen quote in a more deflationary environment and making sure we have a cost structure that supports Revenue in whatever environment we're operating in. This folks is the earnings call that was published on November 16th from Walmart and what they're doing and I wrote it here because we covered this in our course member live stream is Holy Smokes This is the Fed getting ready for deflation. That's what I wrote right here.

Cost cutting can lead to unemployment. As you cut costs and prices come down, you try to be more efficient with the employees you have. This is what we saw during depression. This is when the FED needs to print print print.

It's when they refuse to that you end up in a depression. We're really pleased that our Us businesses are seeing roll back counts up significantly that this Thanksgiving will be one in which Walmart will have lower prices than a year ago. Okay, okay, okay, it's Walmart Okay, maybe Walmart's trash. Okay, okay, okay, what about Levis This is Levis It's Chip Berg We're very disciplined in trying to really understand what were the most price sensitive items and adjusting the price in those items and those items only.

except not up down. Levi is talking about prices going down Vans The shoe company talking about prices going down. What about Costco Oh um oh dear oh oh dear the Vice President and CFO of Costco well answering a question here 1 to 2% uh, you know of of potential price growth? uh being responded to like this. Well, first of all, your comment that was on the 1 to 2% uh, you know we're talking about the 17 weeks or about four months roughly and uh, we're looking at these four months and uh, you know basically um, what we're noticing is a downward Trend if you will a little and when I talk to merchants on the Fresh side the food side, it's flat to down a little bit right now on the food side.

In other words, with the exception of sundried things like raisins Okay, very Niche things. but basically things are trending to 1 to 2% If anything, they're trending to negative. Okay, and then we see the consumer packaged Goods side and non food being down year-over-year in a nice way as freight costs her down after Freight went through a recession basically and in some cases now commod costs are just straight negative. So that being said, we're not seeing a big change, but at least we're trending that way.

Who knows what tomorrow brings and it is related to you know multiple things I would say, but it relates to pushing prices as fast as we can. We want to be the first to lower them when those things happen and drive. S Sales Holy smokes, wait a minute Costco Saying we want to be the first to cut prices Walmart Saying we're cutting prices Levi's Vans cutting prices to be lower than what we're seeing last year. Not only that, but now we literally and I want to show you what Society General is saying because I think it's a very big deal.

But not only that, this guy meet Kevin is saying welcome to Black Friday he's talking about deflation in his Black Friday sale 77% off the bundles, the lowest prices for the next year guaranteed 75% off any of the programs and the release of all the noob verse Pro courses coming this Monday which if you check out on any of these courses you could bundle up to brand new 2023. Cont: content this is deflation in Earth okay yeah yeah I did just sneak into uh, I' snuck in a Black Friday sale into the deflation talk but that's what's happening. Let's just be real. You have to be competitive in this environment.

Prices are going down. Prices are going to continue to go down over the next year. Now that doesn't mean we're back to levels that we saw in 2019. but companies are starting to cut prices.

A lot of companies are starting to quite frankly panic I think Costco which makes like 50% of their net income from guess what? memberships okay, They just want you to be a member so they want to come across as having the best prices. And if they don't have the best prices, then what happens? You end up with a deflationary bust. So yes, in talking about a deflationary bust, I I did just build in a Black Friday coupon. So go to meet Kevin.com to see the lowest prices.

We are not only reducing prices via deflation, but we are also offering a price guarantee that Black Friday today will be a low. So we're trying to shoot in such a way that we're shooting it straight with you. Other companies are lowering prices. We are going to make sure we have the best prices for Black Friday now for the next year.

So if you want to check out the courses and get lifetime access to the courses, the course member live streams you want to be part of the brand new 2023 lectures that are coming out on Monday they're all dropping on Monday are in the new verse Pro Courses You want to be a part of these or you're an existing member. Go to me, Kevin.com Check it out. Email us at staff at Meetkevin.com if you're not already a member. So what do you have here? Society General tells us the following: The Federal Reserve in the 1930s made a massive mistake.

It allowed the money supply to contract without printing money. We already see that the money supply is negative. Now, the Federal Reserve needs to strike a very delicate balance that we don't end up leading to another deflationary bust due to Federal Reserve overtightening. And folks, that's exactly what we could end up facing.

Now, the Federal Reserve is going to keep a very tough face up of oh yeah, we're not going to cut until deflation or inflation drops back to 2% Fear not. But what about when that housing in inflation that we've just started seeing roll over comes at the same time as a rollover in goods And potentially we start seeing that unemployment level start slowly slowly, slowly tick up? The Federal Reserve really has no choice but to cut. The question then is, how much does the Federal Reserve cut? If we look at the world interest rate probability, what do we end up getting? We end up getting cuts of between now and January 2025 of only about 1% That would be roughly four rate cuts of 25% or 25 basis Points each. Now this number is heavily debated.

A lot of folks say no, we're not going to see four interest rate Cuts Uh, the Federal Reserve is not going to be that aggressive. They're going to stay higher for longer and that frankly, is what the bond market is pricing in. Although the 5-year Break Even level is finally starting to fall, we're the 5-year Break Even level come down. Uh, we're sitting at about 2.23 on the 5year break even right now, and when we jump into the 10-year treasury, we find the treasury yields are actually up.

At the time of this recording 4486 per up seven basis points today. the Nasdaq's negative in pre-market Dow and S&P slightly positive. I'll hide myself from this for a moment, but the big warning that Society generally gives us is that and it's not General I Know that's like the American way to say it. It's the general, that's if you want to say it all.

French But anyway, it's so important to consider the 1930s Great Depression that price cutting leads to job cuts and once that cycle starts, the deflationary bust starts. It could be very difficult for the Federal Reserve to stop it. So maybe we should be morec concerned about paying attention to deflation and prices falling. Then we should be concerned about prices rising.

That's my take. Let me know what you think in the comments down below. It might seem crazy to worry about deflation at a time where prices are still up from before Covid. And you know what? it might be a welcomed relief to see prices fall.

As I said, today's Black Friday get the best price as possible. We're super excited to lower the prices and bring you more value at the same time. If you're an existing member and have questions, email us at Staff Meetkevin.com to make sure you could get the best access to the lectures that are dropping on Monday in the new Ver Pro courses or the other lectures that are dropping in the other courses totally for free for existing members. My goal is always to bring more value.

So send us an email staff ATM Kevin.com If you're a new, why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how. Go Congratulations man! you have done so much. People love you people look up to you Kevin P there final analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take member considering becoming a course member. Email us at staff and meet Kevin.com as well.

Thank you! Bye.