People want to know if the real estate market is crashing. So we started in Southern California Now we're in Northern California and soon we'll be going to Salt Lake Texas Florida We'll be going to different parts of the country to figure it out. Today You're going to see if the market is indeed crashing in October of 2023 in Northern California We're about halfway between San Francisco and Sacramento. Let's figure it out.

So how do I like to start off my comparisons? I'm going to start by looking at a house that's on the market that's sitting. Here's a property that looks like it's got a newer roof. It's just been flippery modeled or at least it looks that way. It looks gorgeous.

Everything about it looks great. You know what doesn't look great is the fact that it just had a $100,000 price cut. Now I'm not interested in buying in this area. It's a little too expensive for me, but I want to know what different markets are doing? This is up between San Francisco and Sack As we talked about, this is listed for $899,000 at5500 ft and it's a 4-2 Let's now take a peak around the market.

It's nice we don't see any people parking on lawns or driveways. Every house looks relatively well mained. We have a little bit of busy road noise here, but now let's go look at some comps and understand what's going on with this market. So the first thing we're going to do now is we're going to go look at a June comp that's sold nearby and let's see which one's better.

Now this one's not quite as oh my gosh. It's a flip when you walk up, but when you look at the pictures of this one you see it actually doesn't look that bad and this one has an edge to it. It's actually next to this gorgeous Park and doesn't have that street noise so I would much prefer this house at about 90 Square ft. smaller because I'm next to the park I mean this is this is like an extended backyard for your children.

This this actually a huge Park This is beautiful. This probably adds $20,000 of value in in my opinion. Anyway, this property sold for $858,000 in June Now the other one's listed for $8.99 Now the one at $899 isn't selling at $8.99 It should be based on this comp worth about $879 But now now what I could say is if the other one that flip looking one sells for less than $879 which what I've done is I've added 20K for this park right? Uh, and a little bit for the square footage if that sells for less than $879 I Know the Market's softening but I'm not convinced that it's crashing yet I need some pending sales? Let's go to another one and we're going to write that one down as a comp. We're going to track that $8.99 one if it sells for more than $8.79 Great no crash if I look in 2 months and it sold for 800.

Got a big problem now the one by the park. Something else you got to know because we're about to comp to this neighborhood and I'm trying to understand 858 seemed like a really good deal so I'm digging a little deeper I'm like ah, it's actually a May sale even though it closed escrow June 13th it went pending in May So that tells me the appetite of the market in May doesn't tell me much about the market now unless we went up in the summer and right back down and that could be the feeling of a potential crash. So now I'm looking for evidence that's more recent because I know we have low numbers in the spring or lower numbers in the spring. I know we've got somebody asking $ 8.99 so what am I doing? I'm bracketing right I know $8.99 for these three four bedroom 1500 is squ foot homes is too high because it's not selling I know that $799 was really low Then now I'm going to go to a pending comp which is in this neighborhood but this neighborhood's 15 years older.

You could see we've got an older home here here. We got the power lines. We got a property that looks like maybe it was flipped over here, but the one we care about is actually right here. Now this property is pending.

It was listed for $790 and I think to myself, okay, $ 790 That seems really low, especially if the other one just sold for 858. So older neighborhood, about the same size home. otherwise 32500 Square ft it went pending. So I called the agent.

Oh 790 we get close to list. where are we? We're roughly around 825 to 830 on this. Now that's interesting. 825 830 15-year-old neighborhood, older neighborhood, not next to that nice park.

Kind of aligns with the May pricing. So what's fascinating is I don't know anything about this Market But I'm already learning that my May pricing is similar now to my October Market This one's getting multiple offers because it was listed low. This is where people go. Oh, multiple offers everything skyrocketing.

No, it's actually aligning with May sales. but there were July sales in the 900s. Okay, well let's go look at the 900s and see if they had like gold windows or something like that. Let's go find out.

Now this neighborhood's pretty nice. Okay, this is a newer neighborhood from that last one that we saw. we don't have the power lines. What's crazy though is this is a July sale and this July sale sold for $938,000 with dated bathrooms.

Now it's nice on the inside but very similar to that first 8.99 neighborhood or that second one where we're by the park. Very similar you the power lines. It's a nice neighborhood but sold for $930 $930,000 Right now we're looking at comps of maybe we're selling for 830 to 850. That's not good.

Is there another comp that's showing us we had a hot summer in the July season? Let's go see another 1950s neighborhood here, but we're closer to some of the shopping. We only about 2 minutes of a drive from the last house where we were. this house sold for $98,000 in the summer Now, even if we give this a massive adjustment for just being a few streets closer to the shopping center Here, what we're finding is if current values for 324 Tws right around 1500 square ft. couple streets that way are sitting around 8830 840 850 like the one by the park, and that one at $8.99 isn't selling.

We're probably seeing a variation from the summer here of somewhere between 7 to 8% That's 7 to 8% decline just from the summer. Now that could be selling season, but let's put it this way. it doesn't look like prices are dropping off a cliff. Yet the question now is going to be what are those active listings going to sell for? We know we're propped up by the pending sales.

We know we're not $790 because we were getting multiple offers at 790, pulling us into that 825 to 830 region. If we're closer to these, hey, maybe that's going to push us into the 880 because we're closer to the shopping. Still not a 980, but it's also not really anything more than a seven to maybe as much of a 10% correction. Going in through the season, we're not seeing a big giant drop off the cliff yet.

We haven't seen it in SoCal We're not seeing it now in this part of NorCal Now we're going to go to some different markets and continue evaluating then. what we're going to do is we're going to keep tracking our tracker comps and we'll see when some of these active comps actually sell. If they sell really low and we're starting to get 15 20% declines, it's going to be a sign that maybe we're starting to hit some real pain and those are opportunities if you want an opportunity to invest in. HCK Remember our investing round ends for 2023 November 1st So go to House Act.com to learn more.

This is the kind of work that we do when we do our due diligence on properties. find our wedge deals. Then we buy renovate, renovating properties people can't otherwise live in. We bring them to the rental market, we bring supply to the market and then with our mini funds we hope to create delicious cash flow for our investors.

Knock gun wood no guarantees. Read the offering circular and the solicitation at House.com Thanks for watching. We'll see you in the next location. Congratulations man, you have done so much People love you people look up to you which I say yes meet Kevin Where does this mean we are in the economic cycle? Should we be thinking about buying real estate? Should we be thinking about buying stocks? I Have a background in real estate as a real estate agent, real estate broker, real estate investor, a stock market investor and fund manager.

Why not advertise these things that you told us here. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Always great to have you on Kevin PA there financial analyst and YouTuber Meet Kevin.