In this video, I'm going to show you exactly how to find out what's going on in your real estate market. This is really important because you're thinking about buying a home or investing in a home or even a rental property. You want to make sure you're not buying and catching a falling knife because volumes and property values are about to tank. Volumes have already tanked.

Let's go do some research and figure out what's going on in a particular market and I'll show you exactly what we're looking for. Obviously there's a lot of clickbait on YouTube about a housing market crash. So what I like to do is figure out well, is housing actually crashing? So what I like to do is I go to an expensive house in an area. That's what you start with.

Number One: Start with an expensive house. something that somebody probably over improved spent a little too much money on remodeling or adding on to. Then that's what I've got here. We're in about an $750 to $800,000 neighborhood and this came on the market for $870,000 and the first thing I did is I said I'm marking this as a favorite not because I want to buy it, but because I want to see what happens with it.

because as soon as you get the slightly more expensive ones in your neighborhood not selling and sitting and they panic and start cutting prices, everybody else gets hurt. So what did we find out about this one? Oh, what's up Mr Jack I got Mr Jack here. He's my partner in crime today, right? Yep, so what did we find out about this one? It's remodeled. It's got some nice finishing touches right? You saw the pictures of the inside.

We called the agent because that's what you do call the agent. Figure it out. They got multiples and self for a lot over, but they sold for about $115,000 over. Now that is actually a good tell that at least at this very moment in time which is about mid October we're not seeing the bottom fall out from the market.

People are still buying which is wild because mortgage rates are like 8.3% but on one hand we could say but affordability is low but there's uh, you know they're low buyers therefore the low inventory shouldn't battle right? Well that's why you have to actually go touch and feel the properties you you look at the neighborhood. what do you got? Well you got beautiful remodeling over here. Amazing! Landscaping They put some money into the house. These folks put some money into their home as well.

Yeah, we've got some that are still a little more dated, but that's okay. That's a normal mixed sort of California style neighborhood. But what this is telling you at least is that the upper end isn't getting hit yet slightly outside the median. Again, if the median prices in the neighborhood are 7 to 8 or 750 to 8 and something that's listed high that is larger but listed high for that neighborhood.

if that's moving, the Bottom's not falling out. That's part one. Now let's go to part two. Now here you could see the neighborhood a little more.

Uh, less upkept. So this is now what I call the low comp. So I wanted to come touch and feel the low comp. Why? Because when you look at the pictures online you could see on the inside.

it's not that bad. It's got newer Flooring by the kitchen. the kitchen looks newer. Bathrooms it's all been updated within about the last 10 years.

Got dual paint windows but then you look and it's like ah, you know we could have pressure washed. We could have painted a little bit. It's a little funky over here, you know I mean there's there's junk on the side, this has falling off. Uh, you know it's It's a little crusty around the edges.

So why does this matter? Well, it matters because this property is on the market for $719,000 It was on for 7:30 and we're basically in the same neighborhood. Was in for 7:30 sold. as it went into escrow, the deal fell apart. Now they're at 519 Now we call and go.

Hey, how's yours? Because if the bottom is truly falling out of the market, this won't have any offers, right? But they have an offer at 7:05 So now what we've done is step two. We've bracketed the neighborhood. That's an appraiser term. Where you go.

What's the high? What's the low. The high? was like 2300 ft 885, the low was like 1100 square fet 705 and that is a present offer on the table. Now our comps are bracketed. Now we know.

Okay, we can play in this zone. So for example, if we think a home is worth eight and you could get something for six, you got maybe a 200k spread there as an example, right? let's keep looking. Now this one right here was listed for $6.95 which is out of the bracket and it's low. With its square footage around 1 1350 Square ft, it should be worth at least $20,000 more than where that 705 offer was on the 1100 square foot one, right? Remember, don't go cost per square foot where you're dividing into price.

Usually in most areas, you're going to go about a 100 hundred bucks a foot for nominal changes. Generally, what we see, what's fascinating is when you do that math that brings this one to 725 And guess what, it just sold for 725. So that again tells you with three examples. Now based on comps, either Active offers new escros or sold from today that all three of them are suggesting.

Well, the Bottom's not falling out, so how do you know you're in the right spot? Well, one of the things that you should do as well. So add this to your list. Remember, we're going to bracket bracket High bracket, low, call and get the data. Then what are we going to do? Well, then we're going to try to understand: Are we in a seasonal Market or we in a market that's pretty stable throughout the year? So I'll show you one way you can analyze that using rent data? But first, I Got to remind you to check out Househ Hack.com It's my real Estate St startup.

We are looking to take advantage of whatever we can to build wealth for not only our investors, but the communities that we help improve by bringing tenants to fixed up homes that we bought as fixer uppers. Go learn more at House.com We're raising money now. You can invest with us. Check out the offering circular for more information Again, House.com So what do you want to do? Well my opinion, Check out something simple like the Zillow Rent Manager.

If if you throw in, let's say the San Diego California Real Estate market and you zoom in to what's going on with rents, you might just look and say oh my gosh, it looks like rents are plummeting right now, but then you look. Wait a sec. That's the same thing that happened last year Now of course, there's a little bit of a decline here, and we want to pay attention to these declines. But if you're in a market that really pops off in April May June and then start slowing down in September and October often times, that'll actually translate to the sale Market as well.

And if you're in a market where the market slows down after back to school and goes into the holidays, could be a good opportunity to go hunting from some deals for sale. Now the next lesson is Model Match Comps. We've gone to a slightly different neighborhood here, but what you'll notice behind me is a 1,040 square ft house. It's small.

Something else you'll notice is you know you've got somebody who's done some improving some dual paint Windows here. but how could still use a little bit of love? You've got a house over here that has had a little bit of love, which is nice, but then you've got. you know, some that leave a little bit to be desired. whether it's the RV, the landscaping or over here, the stuckle work around the house itself.

What do we know about Model Match though? Well, what we know is that this property has offers somewhere around $640,000 What we also know is that there's a Model Match a few streets over and the Model Match a few streets over. When we look at the pictures is gorgeous. It's granite countertops. It's the newer flooring.

It's the newer baseboards. It's the newer light fixtures. the newer Hardware The newer appliances looks pretty nice and it's a Model Match. now.

What do we want to know about the Model Match? Well, let's say you're buying this one for I Don't know. 6.40 and now you have a model match That's 740? Well, you want that model match to sell? You want to hear 740s getting multiple offers and it's skyrocketing? What did you just hear? Bro? Uh, so you called the agent uh, 20 days on Market Yeah, and it's got one offer, pulling in at 720 and he said, yeah, write it up. So uh, 720 is probably or 715 or something. 7.

If he was, yeah, write it up. That probably means 720 is actually higher than the offer they have right now. He said it's over seven. Okay, so where it has a seven in the front? So it could be 7:05 710 something like that.

But even let's say it's 720. Now all of sudden you have an $80,000 spread between where you are on this deal and where that property is. And if you need to put $80,000 in to fix this up, you make zero. And this is why it's really important to watch what active comps are doing.

A big mistake that noobs make is they only look at the sold comps from the summer, the hot Sizzle time. Then you look at the actives and you make the phone calls like this. You start realizing what's actually happening in the market. Is the bottoming bottom falling out? No.

But are we skyrocketing away? No. If anything, there's some compression, which means you have to get that pencil sharpener out before you start writing offers. Let's keep going Now, the next thing you got to keep in mind is pictures on the internet are deceptive. You should know that already from being signed up to Instagram and seeing the girls on Instagram Okay, perception versus reality.

This on the internet looks fantastic and you know what here? I am I mean it doesn't look bad, right? I Got dual paint, windows and everything right? But let's back a little bit. Christian Let's let's show this property a little bit more here. we've got dead. Landscaping We got nasty paint we've got when we.

when we look inside, you could actually probably just take a peek by looking through the window. Do somebody yoint the door threshold off the bottom of the door back there and I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute, Is this just like lipstick on a pig over here or what? I mean look at this. They didn't even care about all the termite damage right here. So you're going to sell a remodeled home? At least at least put some Bondo in there, would you? It's little things like that, but it's not just the crustiness that's going to turn off a buyer over here because those are the minuses.

There are also pluses that are hard to evaluate when you're on a computer. For example, look at this. This is a 200 amp electrical panel now. I Don't think they permitted the panel given that there are no arcal circuit breakers in here.

But I Know that because I'm also experiencing construction. uh, a lot of spiders in here, but that's pretty typical. So look, there's some simple things that could be done to this house that actually make it sell. The question is, what is it actually going to sell for? It doesn't look like it's going to sell for 740.

It'll probably sell for 720, even if after they touched it up this winter, it's probably a 720 comp. That means the other one in order to be a deal has to probably be about 720. Minus 50, $60,000 worth of work puts you at about 660. minus about 100.

You probably want to be in the upper fives to get a good deal on the other one now because you've seen the properties in person. What you do is you heart this on your Zillow or red fin app or whatever you're looking at and when it finally closes, maybe it sells in 6 weeks or 8 weeks or 12 weeks. Whatever it is, when it closes, you look back and go, Whoa. they got 740.

They got full price. That tells you okay. Market's actually doing better. If you look and go 690, you're like oh, it's softening Jack What do you think? this is on the ground right there? I Don't know.

Does it look like a rod that in the ground? Yeah, it is called a copper grounding rod. You literally ground the electrical panel by taking this giant drill and going and you put the rod in there. Although they did a bad job, look how loose it is, the looser it is the worse cuz you have less contact with the Earth you got to get in there deep son, really deep, really hard. Jack What you get for Mom Beautiful bro.

All of these little things like a grounding Rod or a little bit of damage here or some of the Dead Landscaping Here are those really going to make massive changes to the price of the property? Not really. maybe 10 $15,000 here or there. but what you're doing is you're marking the market and as this moves up like if this had multiple offers, then we know we're in a really hot Market because it's kind of crusty. The fact that this has one lowball offer and is sitting is going to start depressing values in the entire neighborhood.

Now again, you compare to the neighborhood. it looks okay. We got somebody with a front yard over there. It's pretty nice that one's okay.

These folks like wave Runners those F folks like wave Runners on their grass. Now a lot of people in real estate. they're like oh, but Kevin all the houses are still getting multiple offers. Have you ever sold anything on? eBay Okay, this is easy man.

this house behind me was listed for $6.99 and it's 200 ft more than the two we were just talking about. and it's moving ready. It's cute, it's beautiful, It's on a nice Street it's by a park. It's got all the amenities.

so the point is, why would they list it for $66.99 Well sell it before the winter season. you get multiple offers on purpose. You do that strategically. You list low on eBay on purpose.

if they listed this for $199,000 I guarantee you they would end up with 200 offers on it and then what you're going to make a clickbait YouTube video going Market Sky Marketing We're getting 200 offers out there. It's all based on what the original valuation is right? So this is probably a house that's worth $7 40, 720 somewhere in that range. Now that hurts that other property that Fix Upper really suggests that Fix Upper has to sell for Less So we called the agent and found out there were about two offers and about 720 on this. That hurts that other one where we're like hey, uh, you know, uh what you got any offers and they got one like 705, 701, 710.

That hurts that one. But it says that. Moving ready and clean and cute on a good street, it's worth about 720 for 200 ft more compared to the one for a th000 over there 1,000 square ft. Well, that's probably a $700,000 home.

So now again, if a good deal comes on the market, a hoarder home or whatever for $550 and it needs $50,000 worth of work, do you buy it? Well, yes, because now you're into it for six and it's a $700,000 house. Great. We watch the market and we adjust as necessary. Now what happens if you get a movein ready property that comes on the market? Market That's 775 and all of a sudden it sells with multiple offers and it's only 1,000 square ft.

Well, that's a sign. The market is picking up again and those are the adjustments. You kind of move your brackets that you have to work with to make sure you're not getting screwed at buying real estate. So is the real estate market crashing here in Southern California Well, at least in the neighborhoods that we looked at, the answer is no.

For now, it looks like we hit a soft Landing in some of these areas. For now, that could turn into slippage. You know some people dollar cost average and you got this going on so you want to watch, but it looks like we're within bands of stability. The summer was a little bit higher kind of adjust down for the winter and the question is, what's going to happen in Spring Do we adjust down again? Or do we adjust up? Either way, the best way to insulate yourself is not sitting on the market with analysis paralysis all the time deciding.

Should I Buy Should I Not buy. The answer is you're always a buyer. You're always an investor at the right price. So do you know how to identify the right price? Do you want to take the effort and do that? Well, You got two choices: Number one, you can invest with us at house Haack Go to House Hack.com You can invest in the company itself.

we're offering founder shares. learn more about that read the offering circular or number two. Learn how we do this by checking out the courses on building your wealth whether it's real estate, zero to millionaire or the new burst Pro Real Estate courses where we have a special Q4 Q1 How to buy real estate during that time and you get the special secret sauce as well. Check it out link below or go to Meet Kevin.com Congratulations man, you have done so much people love you people look up to you which I say yes meet Kevin Where does this mean we are in the economic cycle? Should we be thinking about buying real estate? Should we be thinking about buying stocks? I Have a background in real estate as a real estate agent, real estate broker, real estate investor, a stock market investor, and fund manager.

Why not advertise these things that you told us here? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Oh, it's great to have you on Kevin PA their financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin.