Hey everyone welcome back to another market, open, live stream, so today we have green indices. However, we thoroughly expect the dips in this market to continue at the very least uh until we get through to about october 18th, and that is because, on october 18th, we expect our debt limit crisis to be resolved, though it could end up. Taking a few more days, given how slow congress tends to be, we also expect to know the size of the infrastructure package, which we now think will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 trillion dollars, which is a far cry from the three and a half trillion dollars. That we were originally facing.

We also expect to get uh. Well, we don't expect to get. We will get cpi data uh on the 13th of october, we'll get jobs data this friday, so we're gon na have a lot more clarity on our economy within about uh 13 days here, which is good uh. That's what we want.

We want clarity. We want more confidence in what's happening in our markets, because that enables us to uh uh to have market rallies. When there's too much uncertainty, you can't really have a market rally because uh there are too many too many people nervous and nervousness, though, creates opportunity. I like that kind of opportunity, uh so uh, even though we do have green indices today, uh, including the dow futures being up about four nine percent s p futures up point: four: six percent nasdaq futures up uh, just over a third point: three seven uh: we Uh, we do still have a lot of stocks that have sold off good chunk yesterday.

So, in my opinion, for certain cases uh, it might not be too late to buy so to speak for certain things, uh of course, uh not blowing every bit of available cash. I have, though i will say i've gone from gosh. I want to say about three or four weeks ago, somewhere around five and a half million dollars of available cash, because it's just closed so many option, contracts that i was selling so many puts and selling. So many calls uh yeah and then reversing a lot of those uh by by taking gains in the you know the last couple weeks, uh and and then reinvesting those into stocks that i'm down to only about like 1.7 left, which i say only.

I know it's still a lot, but my point is my available. Cash position has gone from like 25 to like eight percent, so anyway uh whatever. I think the point is, i'm buying the dam. That is, of course, why the coupon code linked down below is diamond hands because you buy the damp and then you diamond hands uh, but anyway, so uh.

Okay, what do we? What else we got? Oh, no look at this uh oops! That's not what i wanted to click on there. We go, let's go ahead and click on crypto look at crypto here we've got bitcoin uh, knocking on the door of fifty thousand here on btc ethereum up to thirty four four. I wonder how uh cardano's doing? Let's see here, let's go to coin market cap we've got uh cardano sitting at 222 and uh some trending tokens here, like tron rainbow token and cody uh with uh, with some other tokens listed here as well yeah but okay. Let's also see oil here, oil up uh about 1.52 rent up another 1.72.

These are different blends uh. Typically, the more u.s blend just being labeled oil and brent being a little bit more of a euro and us plan. You've got bonds 10-year treasury sitting at 1.5. Still stable this, this stable 1.5 year, uh bond uh, i'm sorry 1.5, the stable 10-year treasury bond yield is uh, is actually good in terms of inflation expectations.

So uh, let's see here, okay uh, then we've got let's see here: uh, okay, now we're gon na look at crypto here in just a moment as well yeah. I will come back to yell in here. One thing that i want to say that i found very, very incredible about crypto so far and i've loved it is that crypto has been incredibly resilient even yesterday, as we've had a lot of a tech sell-off, which is very interesting because we're starting to see crypto Disconnect from the association with technology stocks previously it was that when, when you saw crypto currencies, uh do do well, uh attack was often doing well and when tech was doing, poorly crypto was was doing uh uh poorly. That has been pretty broken in 2021.

Here in 2021 we saw tech start really suffering in february and uh crypto really started taking off in about february. I mean it really started taking off in like late november december uh, but it took off through uh february into uh april and may that's where we had our crypto peaks. Of course, we troughed out in the summer which uh the the summer wasn't horrible for tech. Tech was uh recovering or trying to claw back in the summer and uh, and you had crypto bottoming out essentially and uh.

Now you've got crypto really disconnecting from technology. In the technology sector in general, as yesterday, we had a devastating day with the nasdaq down over almost two and a half percent and uh crypto didn't miss a beat. Crypto was essentially straight up yesterday, which uh, which was really incredible, to see all of the indices. So so bloodied and nervous yesterday, uh it crypto continuing to push up again.

Yesterday was the fourth and so take a look at uh the fourth here when the market opened uh you you had some uh. Actually i mean the market opened over. Here. You had some pain right before market open, which is very interesting a couple hours before market open.

You had a little bit of pain, but beyond that the rest of the day, it was straight up for crypto uh, as you know, compared to the indices. Having much more pain, which i thought was really incredible - for uh for the larger, larger ones, of course, like bitcoin uh, not i don't want to speak too broadly about every single coin, but uh yeah to have here. Let's see here, let's look at 10 4 as well over here: yeah 10, 4 right here same sort of sell-off around 7 30. uh, but otherwise straight gains right into today for ethereum for bitcoin uh cardano has been bouncing around this.

This 220 range here, uh, maybe uh - maybe not so almost a little bit of a decline going into the fourth year, maybe cardano playing a little bit more with the technology stocks uh at least yesterday, but uh. Certainly when we look at uh crypto, it's it's doing. It it's disconnected and uh what i believe. A reason for this is is uh crypto, i think, is trading a little bit more right now off of uh evergrand fears and the evergrand crisis compared to uh to what's happening with the debt limit.

I think uh, the stock market is a little bit more sensitive to the debt limit and crypto's a little bit more sensitive to evergrand in the property crisis that we have abroad. Those are just my expectations and so that's sort of or maybe rather than expectations. Maybe the rationalizations i don't know, but that's how i feel about them. So uh, okay, good, let's see what else we have here! Uh we've got.

Let's see here: okay, oh we've got a yeah big uh whistleblower uh, going into congress today on facebook. That's going to be interesting testimony, let's listen in here from my thing, which is really inciting it's. Why i took that damn bitcoin and went and bought a place in pennsylvania. You might were fine, not that you would do any of those things i would no.

Can i just say i'm serious: i can't have the summit police be bodyguards. Okay is jim uh rationalizing why he paper handed crypto ill-advised for dorsey to pile on there. As for the financial impact, it's fairly significant, which just shows the power of the platform six hours? That's a lot of money. No, but i'm saying that if you want to true bullying, just go to go to twitter, so, okay, all right uh! So i'm gon na pull off the uh the ranting here for a moment and uh, i'm gon na go ahead and uh and uh hop on over into this here for a moment, uh, let's see so, take a look at this.

I found this very interesting about tesla, so here's just a small note on tesla, which there's been a lot of fun about tesla and uh battery fires, battery safety and uh. We've got an automotive report here. This was in the new york times this morning. I yanked it out of the paper.

It says here. The federal government's top auto safety regulator has declined to open a formal investigation into the fire risk associated with tesla vehicles and fully charged batteries after finding listen, this one folks quote no relevant incidents in the united states in the last two years: the national highway traffic Safety administration received a petition in 2019 requesting an investigation following reports of fires in china that started after certain tesla vehicles had been charged at one of the company's fast charging stations. Uh superchargers got ta love the superchargers anyway in documents posted on the federal register. The agency said that it had found no incidents in the u.s since receiving the petition.

The available data indicate oh - and this is a quote quote. The available data indicate that non-crash battery fires in tesla vehicles are rare events. That's good non-crash battery fires so like the car just bursting into flames like gm's car for tesla is very rare. Good electric vehicles made by tesla and other manufacturers have been found to sometimes catch fire if their battery packs have been damaged in accidents.

These high voltage fires generate intense heat and can be difficult to put out now. I kind of dispute the the difficult to put out thing just mostly because i feel more and more fire departments are becoming uh well versed in how to handle fires related to evs. To the point where remember the news about the crash in texas, where uh it was said that there was a driverless tesla, that crashed into a tree burst into flames and killed the two people in the car and nobody was found in the driver's seat. The initial news headlines, including from the wall street journal, were that this car was on fire for two hours uh before it was able to be put out, which was incorrect.

The car actually uh and the fire department later clarified this and said no, that's incorrect. The car uh, the car fire, was put out within two minutes. The fire department just had somebody hang out there uh for two hours to make sure it wouldn't reignite. That's different.

Obviously i mean it's still like a pain in the butt. It's like. Okay, he's still hanging out there right uh, but it's much better than like actively fighting a fire for two hours uh. If the fire can be put out in two minutes, then it's an ev.

I don't know how i mean it's probably a little bit more challenging than uh than just being able to douse it with water. I mean you probably put a car fire on 30 seconds with water uh. So, okay, maybe it takes a little bit longer but uh. You know you have to switch to a different chemical or pick a different hose.

I, what do i know but uh. This is good. This is good news for tesla, and so i like hearing that, especially since there's so much fun around the batteries, which i always hear that uh it is, this people will change. When it comes to the tesla batteries.

People are going to change. Uh people will get over the uh, the fear, the fear people have all right uh. Let's see here, i know a firefighter and he told me to stay away from tesla now, because it's hard to cut you out of the car. That's an that's an interesting statement.

I've honestly, i've never even considered buying a car based on how easy it is to use the jaws of life to get me out of it. Uh that sounds terrible and uh yeah. Now i know you don't put out electrical fires with water. That's why i said it's 30 seconds if you just use water and it's probably longer because you got to use like a different hose and use foam or whatever uh with uh, with with that uh all right, let's see here so um, let's see: okay, okay, okay, Um uh, okay, i understand the deflation versus inflation argument.

I don't really believe companies have increased their efficacy or efficiency rates to negate inflation um. You know um yeah. I agree with you for now. I think what what my argument more is is that we we have high inflation now that pushes prices up right and companies are becoming substantially more efficient.

So let's say like the bottom here right here: the top of this message is sort of baseline okay, so prices go up substantially and company efficiency goes up. You know, let's say even 50, just for the sake of argument uh and when, when this inflation relaxes and we start seeing a u-turn prices, my expectation is even if prices remain elevated above where they were. Efficiency will end up topping out pricing, but yeah, no like right now, right now, uh, it's it's uh. Things are much more pricey uh yeah, let's see all right, uh, okay, so let's uh go ahead and take a look at uh.

What the pre market's looking like right now we have the stock market right here. It's fine! Let's take a look at some of our favorites here we got shift technologies bought this yesterday as part of our pie, uh up 5.14 percent uh, which reminds me a lot of folks now referring to the manned heme index. A lot of folks first heard this from kathy wood. A lot of economists are talking about this.

It's the used vehicle index. People are kind of using it as a way to gauge existing uh inflationary trends, and we've got a little bit of an inflection point here. Okay and it's it's not the kind of inflection point that we really want. So remember what we want.

Folks, we want prices to come down. The problem is prices for things like used, cars have uh shot up sky high and the expectation was that these used car prices would fall and uh and and essentially rotate back down. So, for example, you might see 10 inflation, 10 inflation, 10 inflation as you're curving up and used car prices, and then, after this curve up, you would expect to see some sort of decline as prices go back to normal. So maybe you would see zero percent inflation and then you'd see negative, two negative three percent inflation, because prices are coming back down.

Well, this thing's gotten really popular, and it's called the manheim index of used vehicle prices in the united states and unfortunately, for inflation expectation purposes. We've just had a little bit of a negative catalyst here in the mannheem index. Regarding the latest update, the latest update in the index here is dated september 30th and unfortunately take a look at this particular chart. Here, it's not so good, so this is your index of used vehicle prices.

Here you see this crater here during the pandemic. Uh recession, the the start of the pandemic. Of course, you saw used. Car prices jumped quite a bit uh in the summer of 2020, but it really wasn't until about february and march of this year, and this is really when inflation fears skyrocketed.

We were pretty happy to see that inflation expectations. Well, i sorry used car prices rather not inflation. Expectations used car prices really plummeted here in uh they peaked out around may and then this is june right here. This is july.

This is august. This downtrend was very, very good. This is something that a lot of folks were pointing to saying: hey, look, inflation's, going away we're rotating back down uh this! This is perfect. Don't worry.

Inflation is transitory. It's here today and it's going to be gone tomorrow. Kind of thing: well, unfortunately, this latest update here uh that just came out uh for the manheim used vehicle index, is suggesting a continuation of high prices, but uh also it's worth noting that a continuation of high prices in this index here. So maybe that's not the perfect way to say it.

It would really represent flatness right if prices were to continue being high. You would see prices bob around the shelf right here, but what you've actually seen is an inflection point down a brief stabilization and then an inflection point right back up almost as severe as what we've had in may. This folks, in in my opinion, is actually a very negative indicator for uh for inflation readings that we're expecting to come out on october 13th. This creates a little bit of cause for concern, because really what you have here is about a reading of not one night.

Well, let me tell you the exact reading. I can do that. You have a reading here of 194.5 and the present reading is a 201.5, so in terms of used vehicle prices, uh you're sitting at about 3.55 percent inflation. Now the good news is that's not like.

Seven or eight percent again, but it's it's, certainly not what we've had here, which was negative and so something here's remember how cpi is calculated. Cpi has many things in the basket and, as certain things are negative, they can draw down the entire index. And then you have lower headline inflation readings, which means less fud, fear, uncertainty and doubt uh, hitting the markets. But when you have something like used vehicle prices that you're hoping you're going to continue to trend down, but all of a sudden they trend back up now, you potentially combine the fact that you might have higher rents, higher wages, higher service costs and service cost inflation, Plus a return to higher vehicle prices in in the form of at least used cars based on this index, and you have a potential problem so uh this.

This is not good uh. This is a screenshot, of course, from bloomberg, so shout out to bloomberg. Thank you very much for that, but uh yeah this. This is a problem uh personally, i believe that uh you, you really do face a risk uh of um, of a higher inflation reading on uh october 13th.

After having seen something like this now, it's it's not. What i want, i would love to see: inflation come in lower lower than expected, in fact, we'll go ahead and pull up inflation expectations uh just to see what we have for october 13th, because it is coming up we'll also pull up jobs expectations. So, let's start with jobs expectations here really quick. We have jobs, uh expected to come out uh this friday, we uh last month had a complete, miss and that helped solidify why we did not end up tapering in september and were delaying to november for the taper.

Last month's jobs report came in at 235, 000 jobs. It is possible that last month's jobs report was low because we had fear around delta. There was a lot of fear around delta, uh, really uh at the end of july. The fear began august was a very very fearful month, and so it's not a surprise that in september's jobs report which reflects data from august, we would see a very low reading.

We do now expect 488 000 jobs. I hope to beat this uh. That's the non-farms uh payroll. We expect a beat on private payrolls as well uh that um uh hold on one second here: uh yep, okay, perfect, so non-farm payroll, 488 change in private payrolls of 450.

We're expecting change in manufacturing 25k we're expecting unemployment rate, we're expecting to go down 0.1 percent to 5.4 percent and take a look at the wage based inflation, we're expecting 0.4 on uh wage uh based uh inflation, which point four percent worth noting. If you just type point four percent times, twelve that'll give you the annualized rate, that's an annualized rate of about a 4.8 increase in wages. Now, let's also go ahead and jump to the 13th. Here, that's where we're going to get cpi data next week, so cpi data, the expectation next month, is uh well for based on last month.

Next week is expected to be 0.3 for a month-over-month inflation reading and a year-over-year headline number of 5.3, which would be stable with last month. I personally have been hoping for that number to actually decline substantially for us to see like a four eight, a four seven, a four five, but i have to say, with this manheim used vehicle index rotating back up, that does throw a little bit of cold water On my hopes for a lower inflation reading, which could potentially signal some headwinds for technology stocks, as as higher inflation, readings usually do, but also could be something that ends up being decent for crypto crypto does seem to move on or around uh cpi dates, and it's Worth noting that if we get a higher than expected read here on cpi, we we could see a benefit or a stronger move in the crypto market, so pay attention to that uh, but uh, just like we've seen here this this sort of uh it's you know What it's almost like, it's almost kind of like this - is the delta dip right here, which is kind of weird to think about, because this is the september reading. This is the august reading. This is the july reading.

It's literally almost like you have a delta dip in here and you're, just going back to where you were so uh fascinating. I love it uh too fascinating to look at the data, not the result that i want, but uh it is uh. It is the fact - and this is why you've got to always let the data speak, don't be emotional about it, uh. If, if you're wrong about your expectations for data, then uh you want an easy solution, change your expectations, but but you got ta, listen to the data, so so that i found it.

I find it's very interesting. Let's now continue to move on to uh stocks. Here we've got lordstown motors, getting beat up again here about 7.69 percent camber energy rotating back down as well another two, five, nine. Oh it's coffee time.

I have not had any coffee yet, and you know what that means chop it down. Ah cheers all right. So this is my level 99 range coffee here by the way in case you haven't noticed thomas says: that's why i have a bmw convertible. Well, i don't know what you're talking about in terms of why but uh i remember my dad's girlfriend when i was in high school had a bmw, convertible uh.

I think it was a fine. It was either three or five series convertible. It doesn't really matter. It was the bmw convertible and i would always want to drive that to school, because i also lived in florida and i'll tell you people talk about, i can see here, florida's live, you can live on coast, uh yeah.

I don't know about the other thing. He said there, but anyway uh i will say i mean minus the rain. I would rather drive a convertible in florida than in california. This is cold when you drive a convertible in 70 degrees outside uh, it's cold, because the wind chill takes that stuff down to.

Like 60., you drive a convertible in florida and it's it's 85.. It's like 75. You know with the wind. So it's it's beautiful, uh, yeah, florida's convertible weather.

Yesterday we had our first thunderstorm that i've witnessed here in southern california. In like five years, we actually had lightning. It was so weird because, back when i was uh when i first moved here, my first class in high school that i ever took here in california was right. After move from florida and people would stop class when there was lightning to go outside and look at the lightning and i come from florida and i'm like losers, i like just go to florida for a day and you'll see lightning and thunderstorms uh.

Yesterday, i i'm like oh lightning and i'm going outside, i'm like. Oh, i've changed it's just that's crazy, different different world, but anyway, so uh, ocugen, uh moving up here, seven point: one: one percent shift technologies, uh, probably up on this man heme index uh update, which is kind of interesting. We've got uh smile, direct club coming back from the grave a little bit here: hot aid mining, i'm popping up a little bit to 9.61. We have uh moderna 1.8 after uh some pain over the last few days.

Here there we go modern 1.6 now bouncing around owlette coming back to a little bit actually got some green after a 23 selloff yesterday i actually bought the dip on it yesterday because i thought it was insane in terms of uh. Why uh uh she's shockingly shocking uh? That's true! You got ta wear sunscreen if you're driving around during the day, solar city, fine, really uh, okay, i'll, have to look into that miami and the keys and some of the west coast only probably tampa uh, okay anyway. So uh, let's keep going here canoe. You know, it's surprisingly, there's not actually a lot of movement right now that's! This is why i started off the live stream.

Saying like hey, like some of the prices are still lower than the insanity that we had seen. So i personally don't mind picking up a little bit more exposure and, of course, if you're in the stocks and psychology of money group, you already know. If i set myself up a trade this morning, yeah which uh as usual, you get all my buy, sell alerts exactly why i'm doing it uh, you know how much i'm doing i'm starting to try to also include like percentage of portfolio, to try to make that A little bit more clear, uh as well so uh, but yeah yeah. We got the opening bell in about 40 seconds, check out that program link down below right next to the link to get up to 70 dollars totally for free with public, go to mckevin.com public and you can get up to seventy dollars of for free using or Signing up for public stock trading application and uh, let's see here, i want to tell you they don't buy or sell your information, but i also want to take a quick look here at public and we're about to open up here: yeah uh, okay, perfect uh, we'll Just hop on over to the opening doll, there's nothing meant else to mention here.

Okay fox has been an incredible stop. I have yet to meet a person when i they're at fox one who doesn't apologize for wearing but then says they're so uncomfortable. I all right. Let's see how green it is today here it comes.

Oh that's going to be 90 yeah beyond 80-85 is not a fan favorite of the team, nice, nice. That's that's a solid uh, solid green day. So far today, we'll see if it lasts. Folks, we've seen a lot of green starts to the market, only to turn red shortly thereafter, we'll see 4 30 on the spy, we'll uh keep an eye on exactly where this goes.

Let's take a look at the opening minute here on amc, amc rotating down on the opening minute. We've got uh tesla flat on the opening minute. We've got the google goog rotating up nicely on the opening minute, but only about a quarter of a percent uh end phase up about point four percent, but uh showing a red candle stick to again here we uh we've seen a kind of rough downtrend here on End phase, i got rid of most of my options. Actually i got rid of all my call options that i had around 190 dollars and uh and i started buying again right around 158 uh bit.

I bought the dip at 149 at 153 and i'm very closely watching end phase, which is a very sensitive stock to the supply chain. Crises, chip shortage, freight shortages, it's so we're sitting at right now, at about 145 32 continued dip here to me is a blessing. I want to make that very clear. It is a blessing because i want to own more of this company, not less of this company.

It is, i actually just did a uh percentage thingy here it hasn't updated on. I don't know what's wrong with this computer, but for some reason icloud just does not want to sync on this computer, but that's okay, because i have it right here. So uh right now end phase for what it's worth is facing face and phase there. It is 6.95 of my portfolio or about 1.28 million dollars and uh.

I want to bump that a lot does that percentage include options. That percentage does not include options, so options would add, make the portfolio larger. That's just just stocks. So that means my exposure.

I don't think i don't. I don't know if i have options on end phase i'll have to check about options interface, but anyway, i've got a few million dollars of options as well: okay, uh but anyway, so we're watching end face actually now just turned a green candlestick over here, but uh. Definitely looking for opportunities to keep bumping my exposure to it. Personally, i don't even mind buying it right now, because it's a great price right now, yeah tesla 0.59 percent.

We looked at goog, we how's the amc again just take another look here: it's uh rotating a little bit to the downside. We have, let's try, dave, buster's house, dave and busters just see how recoveries are doing slightly down here on recoveries. Mattel plug merc is actually down on its uh covet pill. What uh? What else is rotating down bed bath beyond roblox, come down a little bit shift technology is rotating down after being up.

I wonder if this is an omen of what's to come for some of the other uh stocks here. You've got a firm moving up very nicely here that looks like very nice growth on a forum, a very nice growth on docusign good, i'm pretty sure we brought some docusign yesterday, which was nice uh we've got, let's see here, actually don't see here. Yes, we did about 200 shares of docusign yesterday and then somebody told me to charge my phone, which i did um. It seems like anytime.

It's red people feel like that's it. You have unlocked the ability for me to tell you what to do. Uh good good good, keeping an eye on this again, looking for an opportunity by the dude thoughts on peloton yeah, so peloton has had a nice drawdown here and uh how's our market cap on piton right now. Let's take a peek at that piton uh piton stock.

So peloton right now sitting at about 24.75 bill market cap piton we're looking forward here, really quick. So if i grab 2025 so we expect to go profitable in 2024 at piton 128 on uh earnings in one in 2025 puts us at about 64 times forward. Still very pricey for what i expect to be slowing growth, compounded annual growth, probably going to be uh averaging somewhere around 25 over the next five years, but potentially less uh. It's still.

It's still a little on the pricey side. I think yeah i mean we're so close, though to 79 and uh 79 is where they fell to after their lawsuit happened. I bought a lot of uh peloton at 104 and 79. Then it skyrocketed ran up to like 120 or whatever started, seeing some changing indicators for peloton.

I actually sold out all of my peloton position between somewhere around 109 and 113 uh closed out everything that had in peloton yeah. Now i don't own any. Would i be open to re-establishing a position i'm not opposed to it and i'd prefer to be closer to 80 than 120, so i'm not opposed to it, especially going into the winter cycle and going into uh. You know - maybe the um exercise euphoria that i expect we'll have in january.

So definitely not a post but uh, probably not jumping up and down uh at doing so right now, how's the spy doing so. I'm seeing some more things move green here s, p 500 is moving very nicely actually right now: good healthy movement, up, uh and phase as well. Here uh, let's see here um. If i have, if i have the buying power, i'm actually gon na, buy i'm going to buy some shares here, we're going to do a 350 share purchase of end phase right now.

I'm really trying to build my position on here. Most of my stocks are elsewhere. There we go uh, okay, perfect, uh, okay, so adding 51k to end phase at what is it at 145ish? Perfect, uh, okay, perfect! So, let's see here, let's go ahead and see what news we've got all right perfect! So now we're going to go hop on over to uh. Let's see what news headlines we have yeah.

I see your comment about never buy or sell in the first uh hour or a half hour. I don't necessarily agree with that: uh, but hey to each of their own okay. So let's see what headlines we've got elsewhere here and if it falls more, i will buy more so uh all right here. Chinese tech benchmark on the brink of fresh weakness versus the nasdaq china orders banks to ramp up funding to boost coal output.

Hmm, let's see here, let's see what's inside you know. What i really want to know is what what's new, with evergrand, that's and and the uh chinese property market. Yes, folks, let's get an update on evergrand, because now we've got a new default happening. I read about this this morning here and i want to share it with you.

Take a look at this china junk bond sync, which remember junk bonds are really often referred to as height of religious high yield, bonds and they're higher yield bonds, because they're riskier on wider payment stress ever grand update. So let's take a look at this. China's heavily leveraged property firms saw their stocks and bonds tumble after a failure of property, developer, fantasia holdings group to repay notes. Deepening investor concerns about the sector's outlook, so here you go having yet another property developer, having uh the uh having issues and failing to pay.

Uh, their their uh bonds, uh coupons, uh bond, regular uh, coupon payment or regular payments for bonds are known as coupon payments uh. That's really because back in the day, you used to clip a piece off the bond and that was sort of your coupon to redeem. Your uh, your payment, but anyway uh the china. China's dollar junk bonds fell about four cents according to a trade uh, according to traders set for the worst drop since at least 2013 developer cynic holdings group, long-term issuers or their long-term issue or default rating was cut to c from triple c by fitch ratings.

So uh c is actually worse than triple c. If you, you could just google bond ratings to kind of see this and it'll show you like triple a uh double a a and i'm not talking batteries either here uh investopedia has got a little thing on it. There you go look at this, so uh you can see. That c is at least according to moody's, the worst rating that you could get for a bond and standard mp poor's actually calls this a d rating.

So this is not good. You've got a lot of stress in the property market which in some sense it makes sense that you would have stress in the property market after evergrand, because you've got a lot of banks, unwilling to extend credit to property developers right now, unless they can prove themselves Beyond a reasonable doubt that they're not going to default makes a lot of sense. It's typical market uh risk aversion, very, very normal uh yeah, unfortunately, that that hurts a lot of the other developers. Now remember.

China has has a lot of responsibility to bear here, because china essentially pulled out the the rug from chinese property developers by at first saying we need lots more housing, much more housing uh here, we'll give you crazy financing terms and then lost last august, u-turning saying No, we actually want to tighten up lending terms and that made companies that were using the prior qualification standards, no longer able to qualify for new debt, uh and and a lot of the property firms in china were essentially growing uh by by borrowing more, which is Obviously not the most healthy way to grow, but they were also trying to fulfill what the chinese communist party wanted. So i'm not saying that the companies are are uh not to blame they're, definitely to blame in part uh, but the ccp also has some uh some blood on its hand, so to speak when it comes to uh these uh, the property crisis that we're seeing. But it's interesting to see this continue to brew, because you know a lot of this sort of fear, uncertainty and doubt has sort of left our attention. Over the last week we've been focused on more congress.

I would say about two weeks ago: evergrant was front page news on everything right, but continuing to see some of these uh. These these troubles so to speak, is is something that we should pay attention to. Let's do a quick, uh google here for uh the evergrand property stock still suspended on on three three three three. The last time we traded was on september 30th.

Let's go to 666 dot. Hong kong also still suspended here on uh the hong kong stock exchange, and that is pending uh. A pretty large acquisition within the evergrand group troubles at fantasia continue to uh continue contribute to science. That stress is rising in china's property sector, where lower rated developers phases face a search and surge in bond yields.

This is bad too, because again, if bond yields are going up, it's harder for them to raise money. Remember folks, when you are a company when you're a public company, the purpose of being a public company is, is not solely to make your investors money it's for you to raise money. So if you're, a property developer and you've got, you know 10 billion dollars of assets under management and you're like hey, we want to do a new billion dollar development. Let's go raise 500 million dollars, you can issue bonds or you could sell stock.

But if your stocks sold off - and you can't nobody wants to buy your bonds unless you're paying nosebleed interest rates, then it's a lot harder to raise money and actually operate. Remember what like carnival cruise lines had to deal with during the pandemic. They were getting loans of like 13 or something totally ridiculous uncertainty over the full extent of china. Evergrand group's debt load beyond its more than 300 billion reported in liabilities, has plagued investors since the liquidity crisis of the firm stoked fears of a collapse that could trigger a financial and economic contagion.

Fantasia itself poses fewer risks to broader markets than ever grand due to its smaller size, ranked 60th on a list of contracted sales in the first quarter versus third for evergrand fantasia's. Total liabilities are around 12.9 billion, so that's a fraction, obviously the size. Here i mean you're talking about uh uh. You know what is that three four percent of the size of evergrand here, so it's a much smaller percentage here and uh, not good to see them uh missing payments, but you know things to pay attention to shares of sunac.

China holdings dropped as much as 13 on tuesday hong kong listed real estate firms due to pay almost 100 million. In coupons this month, the developers bonds have fallen to record lows after a letter circulated among traders last month showing sunak asking local authorities for help already asking for bailouts had denied it submitted the request. Well sure that sounds embarrassing and uh, i don't know. Sometimes i feel, like transparency, isn't exactly a thing that we get a lot of in china.

Now it's not not a diss on chinese okay, like if you're chinese, it's not a dish, so you're, just saying uh, there's, there's. Definitely a cloud on chinese media versus what we have in the united states, not to say our media's gosh. You know you have to be so like qualify when you say this stuff, it's not to say our media is any good uh, but i think it's certainly a lot better uh than than what we find in uh and china. Evergrants likely default won't hurt the credit profiles on china's local governments, s p global rating, said in a local report.

This is good, and this is why this is one of the things that we actually expect to help us ease out of this ever grant crisis. Is the opportunity for local governments to actually partner with existing developers who take over projects from evergrand or other failing developers? So this is good. The last thing we want is local governments to show that they're showing issues, because that would be a sign of contagion right and the troubles are unlikely to pose contagion risk at the local government letter, nor significantly to undermine social stability. This is very good and we talked about this two weeks ago.

I said i doubt this is really going to explode. You can go back, look at all my evergreen videos, they say the same thing in all of them that this is going to blow over and the fear is going to go away by the dip evergrand shares to stay suspended as a waiting awaiting that major transaction. According to hong kong stock exchange rules, uh singapore banks, uh loans to evergrand insignificant, so less exposure to singapore, fantasia holding skips bond payment. We talked about this one already and uh yeah okay, and then this was the hops in development but grabbing the uh grabbing a 51 step percent stake.

I want to make sure this was very clear because i may have you know. Actually, i think i did inappropriately uh discuss this yesterday. Uh hobson development is not acquiring a 51 stake in evergrand total, it's just the evergrand property services. So i believe this is the property management division, but i'm not 100 sure, but it's evergrand property services, which i believe is that is that 666, it might be 666..

Let's just do a quick little look here, uh just to grab it here. They, it's all. Quite honestly, confusing the different names they use. Yeah yeah see it's 666 evergrand property services group uh.

That is not the main evergrand which trades under the ticker three three three three gosh. Imagine if those numbers weren't the same, could you imagine having tickers that are like? Oh yeah, i'm gon na buy stock in three five, seven, two like what uh, but unfortunately we don't. We don't have that issue and these numbers are relatively easy to work with, but anyway uh. So this gives us a little bit of an update on on evergrand that you do have wider issues again happening at other developers, but still uh.

The risks seem to be relatively contained. Uh and quite frankly, i hadn't even thought about the uh, the liquidity potentially of of local governments. So it's very good to see that uh, the s p 500 is uh or not the s. P, 500.

A standard and poor's is suggesting uh positive uh liquidity for uh for local governments are well capable of of helping local developers bail out of this uh property developer crisis, so the market does appear to be doing very well uh happy to see this right here. We've got end phase that was initially trading flat. I did uh, it did just buy some more en phase and now up a little bit here, we've got a firm moving up another two percent here: very nice movements on a firm hot aid mining back over ten dollars here, also very nice movements on hot air Upstart back over 300, the trade desk up 3.3 shift technologies up three expi up about three pounds here: coming 2.6 uh lemonade coming up two eight, eight honestly. This is still, in my opinion, a deal on lemonade uh.

This is another one. Actually, i want to take a little look here on lemonade. Lemonade lemonade, definitely lemonade. Oh, we got ta.

We got ta work on that uh. We got ta work on that, so we're gon na do that right now, let's go buy some lemonade, i'm buying some lemonade. I don't know how much do i wan na buy. I don't know, oh my gosh, why is it all? Ah i didn't do that.

I definitely didn't do that. Obviously i did do that, but i feel like i didn't do that i feel like i should i'm not responsible for what happened there. Uh yeah anyway, i don't know let's, let's get like uh 1500 shares how's that sound yeah. That sounds good to me.

That's definitely going to lower my basis in here find me: okay, good, nine, five, six! So that's okay, adding 95.6 k all right two, and that is right now only about 2.58 of portfolio plus this portfolio, not including options plus this purchase holla all right. So what else do we have? Ladies and gentlemen? Well, we have volta is down four point: three: seven percent roblox, still rotating down uh hippo sitting at 438 dave and buster's at 0.22 to the downside, i did a little bit of a hippo trade yesterday. Uh send an alert out for that and stocks and psych of money, of course, link down below use your diamond hand, coupon code and, of course, uh get yourself. A level 99 range mug.

Actually, i think i got this off etsy. I have no idea has nothing to do with me, but they're still, cool michael wants to know where all this cash is coming from. Well, so back in uh, well i'll answer that so back in april uh on april 20th 2020, i sold like 10 million dollars worth of stocks and i bought about 4.9 million dollars worth of option contracts, and i did that to completely eliminate the about five to Six million dollars of margin that i had so i went to literally zero margin, which was like amazing. It was beautiful and uh of those option.

Contracts about 70 of them have been very profitable uh and the other 30 percent have been kind of hit or miss. Like like coinbase, has not been a good option contract just saying: okay, uh and um, but that's okay. I mean it's a piece of your portfolio: it's not always all going to be do perfectly, but anyway, what i've been doing is, as things have hit highs like end phase. What i mentioned earlier in this live stream when end face hit 190.

I sold my option. Contract when google hit 29.60, i sold my call option on it, and a lot of these options were up double. I mean they're up hundreds of thousands of dollars each and they they started as like 100 000, so so they're really good gains, and so the ones that have been very profitable uh i've sold and i've kept the cash for a dip and that's kind of how. I built up this war chest of somewhere around 5 million.

I also sold, puts and sold call contracts like i even sold calls against tesla i sold, puts and calls against tesla and uh about two or three weeks ago. I started uh closing out my uh like any time. I'd see nice profits in the sold contract positions. I take profits from those and so basically i've just kind of been farming, the market with option contracts, and it's been really great, especially because it's given me this opportunity to really buy this dip uh nicely.

I haven't like gone all in on on the dip. I so i've got a little bit left, but uh. I've certainly put a large chunk of my cash uh more than 70 of my cash into the market on some of the dips that we've seen here so uh and and pricing right now. Some of the things like neo 34 - i think that's an opportunity.

Let's look at some of these things here, especially with the the overblown-ness of the chinese fears that we have so uh disney up 1.1 at 175. It's not bad ubiquity at 300. It's also not a horrible price, two percent on tesla, going back to 800 here, tattooed chef at 1850 square square at 229. Folks i mean yesterday this was like 2 24..

I had to buy some yesterday. This is not a horrible price. You know relative to where it runs when it goes to like 170 - i'm sorry, 270. 280.

You know, then it gets pricey again now. Don't get me wrong square. Is an expensive company there's a lot of growth built into square a lot of growth built into here. So so keep that uh keep that in mind.

So then we've got uh sofi technologies, so fi up 2.5 shift technologies up four smile directs doing nice here, 6.2 robin hood, coming back a little bit robin would really rubber banding to that uh. Four point: uh! I'm sorry one dollars very cool uh. Okay, let's see here plug power, pinterest, okay, i'm trying to look for other ops here: netflix gosh 621 on netflix, my goodness macy's 22 bucks matterport 1846 still trying to build out more of a position here on matterport uh, more matterport than lucid. For me, i get asked about that, so i that's what i figured mention.

It see other ops here, faraday futures, eight, eight, eight eight had that's a cool price: hey etsy's! Back over 202 nice steven, buster's 40 bucks man. That was a deal when it fell to 32.. I was eyeballing that hard, but i'm just like nope no recovery. Yet it's all right.

Docusign 295, although i did do a sweet call, a call contract on it that helped me fix my option on a mistake on a firm, camber, coinbase bookings, yeah coinbase, 235. Okay, all right! Let's go ahead and go to some news now, a firm's just killing it today. Good job of firm uh is so it is slowing down a little bit here. Let's see if that's the spy or if it's just the firm nope, the spy's, still kicking butt.

Very nice, very nice moves here. Uh a market is uh is, is strongly recovering now very good, very, very, very good. Okay. What else do we have? Let's do an ft? Oh yeah, how's alibaba doing uh baba 149..

Oh i'm sorry! 141.! You know this is this. Is tempting that chinese stocks, but again like for me, neo, that's my chinese pick and it's at 34 bucks folks, like neo, is just in the toilet. Look at where it's been this year. It's been like it's it's.

Basically, it's may pricing folks. This is a steal. Uh it is, let's adjust your hair like i know i should do that uh. I was thinking about that too.

Thank you for your reminder, but anyway, i'll deal with that later, i'm not gon na do that right now, uh, because i can't uh, okay, so where's the ft all right. What we got over here. Facebook misled investors about its reach yeah. I'm i'm interested to to see how this whistleblower testimony goes today, we're going to keep an eye on that that'll be fascinating.

All right, uh debt ceiling. Can the u.s avert a disastrous default? Well they're going to. I don't expect that to be a devastating issue right now, because uh, i think congress is going to figure it out biden realizes like if he d. If, if the us defaulted, he will not get reelected that that it would just be so bad.

So uh he's gon na just take what he can get at this point. My expectation, us retailers, fear supply shortages ahead of halloween yeah. I don't know we talk about supply shortages all the time. Okay.

So, let's see here, let's go to the economist all right. What do we got here so here we go. It's a fossil fuel bun. Instead, how do people and companies avoid paying taxes? Um do any like news news: okay, a lot of facebook news! This is really not that terrible.

Much terribly much news right now hold on a second. Let me search over here. Meantime, look at the spy spy yeah, oh yeah, yeah yeah a little bit of that slow down. We saw that in a firm all right, so uh u.s stocks rise as tech and energy stocks are in demand.

Let me see what we have: okay, repo rates likelihood higher debt ceiling debate, steepening, yield curves means european banks can rally more inflation. Surprise hits emerging market policy laggers, okay, tuesday, might be more of a as you were than a turnaround. Okay, u.s stocks may earn a reprieve. For how long is the question? Ooh u.s equity futures are looking same okay.

Well. This was posted a little bit ago, uh, but it would be foolhardy to read too much into the path of the green that we see both the s p, 500 and the nasdaq have seen several declines greater than one standard deviations of a move in the past Month, a reflection of how lofty current valuations are the s. P. 500 is trading at a forward.

P e of 21 plus well above its historical average of 17x, and the nasdaq composite meanwhile, is trading in a lofty 31 versus a historical of 26. yup. Things are more expensive, ooh and phaser tesla well uh. For me, i have a big position in uh in and uh in tesla, and i'm still trying to build out my position and end phase.

So, for me, it's going to be end phase, especially since end phase is also down. I mean look at this: okay, let's just just for charting purposes hold on. What's the breaking news, five before senate panel, we'll take you, there live as soon as she begins in the meantime, good tuesday morning. Welcome to another hour's walk in the stream okay, so there was no breaking news.

I saw the little icon and i'm like what is it? What is it going to be nothing but anyway uh? So a look at the uh the chart on end phase here right. So this is your end phase chart uh. I like buying this sort of pain, which we had worse pain in may. This is when the company started buying back its own shares, because things got uh, so cheap tesla has been on a bit more of an uptrend here.

So uh chart wise i'd much rather by end phase than tesla right now, but uh tesla's, also proving it can get through these supply chain. Crises pretty well or at least navigate them pretty darn. Well, it's doing very well firms almost up a full five percent. Very nice matterport almost up four shift.

Tech. 3.8. Awesome. Awesome.

Awesome, awesome, good, okay, see how this continues. Let's see what other news we have, there's got ta be more news. Oh, it is sticking to a beautiful daily trend line. You are correct.

End phase is only 20 billion dollars with a beta of one yeah, so it trades with the market and, although i know is, is tesla's beta or n faces beta one. I don't know if i agree with that. Let me see beta so historical beta for n phase got ta, be a lot closer to like one and a half or something historical beta for n phase. Uh, okay, uh raw beta is actually two compared to the s.

P, 500 and adjusted is a 1.7 adjusted. Tries to look forward raw holds back now. If i go to, i can compare to the dow. If i compare to the dow jones industrial average, that's to the s p 500.

If i look at the beta for the dow adjust - that's 1.5, so a little lower but yeah, no definitely a higher beta and of course we are seeking alpha. Uh me kevin in a recent cnbc youtube video on tesla solar struggles. They briefly mentioned end phase, which is a good sign. Oh thank you for that.

I will check that out. Uh cnbc youtube. Yes, solar city and phase. I'm going to bring that up.

I think and phase is undiscovered gem. Uh yeah, i shouldn't say fully undiscovered. I mean it's obviously been discovered to some degree but uh anyway, so uh. Why is solar struggling come on man? It's the the chip crisis, the chip crisis uh.

So what what happened did owlette fly away? Does that mean it's going in the toilet? Oh gosh? It's certainly not certainly not flying up, which is usually what you think of. If somebody says flying it's fine, i've got options on it so and patience options and patience. You know it's going to be fascinating to hear this testimony the whistleblower before the senate panel. That's crazy, i wonder how long i mean i don't.

I can't imagine that her her thing's gon na be that long. I don't know it might be, might be worth uh watching. Uh, we'll see all right.