Well, folks, it is official, the nasdaq is down 20.79 year to date. We are officially in a nasdaq bear market, and the question now is this: is the bottom? Is this time to buy the dip, or is this just the beginning? I mean if we compare now on logarithmic charts the decline of 20, all the way back to the decline that we saw at the beginning of the dot-com bubble. We saw the dot-com bubble, ended up having another 60 to go, think about it. Dot com bubble, tech indices down - that is the nasdaq down at eighty percent, we're down just twenty percent now on the nasdaq, so who's to say there isn't more pain ahead, i mean, after all, we fell 20 in 2018, simply because the federal reserve was raising rates And it took them u-turning on raising rates to flip the script.

We've got a few more levels of uncertainty at this point, so how could now potentially be a bottom, or is it potentially a bottom well to try to evaluate whether or not we're near a bottom? I think it's very helpful to look at the levels of fear in the economy and our geopolitical environment and then try to determine. Is it possible for fear to get worse from here, or can fear get better from here, and this is something for each of us to evaluate. So, let's take a look at this, keep in mind every day when i start thinking about these sorts of thoughts, i always have conversations with you and my course member live streams. Give you insight into exactly what my thoughts are in terms of what i'm doing with my portfolio.

Take a look at those programs linked down below there's a coupon code expiring on the 25th, which is only a few days away and take a look at that. But for now, let's get started with this. Take a look at this, so in 2021 these were roughly the fears that we had higher inflation for longer and the fed rate liftoff. This is where we feared that oh, my gosh we're going to get 2018 and if we get 2018 markets could fall 20 percent.

Oh no! Okay! Well, now we're down 20 percent, but we have way more than just these fears. Take a look at the list of fears that we have right now: oil, somewhere between 100 to 120 per barrel yeah, it's down today. Great hundred five hundred six hundred eight dollars per barrel doesn't really matter, but the spike in energy costs from the 90s and the low or the high 80s, where we had been, is going to lead to inflationary panic right. This is suggesting that inflation might end up hitting eight nine, maybe even 10 percent next month, when we look back to march and see what inflation was actually like in march - and we know these numbers are way underestimated anyway.

Now the market's also pricing in some degree of nuclear conflict or conflict with nato. Now i think this is probably less than 10, because the i think the odds of this are quite low, but the market will price. Some degree of this sort of fear in the market always likes to price in as much as it can and just because something like well, i guess the way to say this is things aren't binary right? It's not like. Okay, nuclear war is going to happen.

Okay, today, it's not and then the market just flip-flops back and forth, it's much more like a gradient uh, and so as percentages change. We see markets move right. This is why, when we go from maybe a 20 chance of a recession to a 40 chance of recession, we're likely to see some red in the market - and that's approximately i'd say where, where we sit somewhere now still less likely that we're actually going to have A recession than then it is likely that we'll have a recession. Now i know this is a little bit of a change from my pov.

I previously had these flipped, but that's because i believed that the federal reserve was going to rug, pull us this summer, but they've already telegraphed that they would not rug pull us. In fact, not only are they telegraphing to us that they're not planning on drug pulling us but they're telegraphing to us the memory of first of all fate, flexible average inflation targeting and what did jerome powell just tell us. He just told us that hey you know, our current target of inflation is two percent, which means if inflation is, let's just say, as an extreme uh zero percent for a while uh, like i don't know five years and uh ten percent for one year, maybe it'll Average out to two percent right, just as an example: okay, that didn't do the perfect math on that. But what's more important here is what jay powell just said, and he said: hey you know remember: we still have flexible average inflation targeting and while he was in congress just a couple weeks ago, what did he tell us? He told us we might end up having to move our inflation target up.

That might imply three percent or two and a half percent, or maybe three and a half percent right, and that is a way of telegraphing. Hey we're not we're not planning on rug, pulling the market we're going to go slow with our 25 basis point rate hikes, but we're going to do them consistently. I think the market right now is pricing in about 7 25 basis. Point hikes i think up to 17 realistically are possible that would bring us to about 4.25.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that, though you know if the fed u-turns at any point between, let's say, hike, five and hike 17. That would be quite bullish for the market market. Right now appears to be pricing in some global gdp decline. Then of course wow.

This is kind of embarrassing, but the uh, the apple device here uh auto corrected shenzhen china to uh that, but anyway, we've got these new coveted lockdowns uh in in parts of china, especially the tech hub within china. Shenzhen, and these are creating substantial supply chain. Fears again, that's just news over the last 24 hours, so could be one of the reasons we saw pain in the market today, of course elon musk on twitter. He didn't respond directly to me, but he asked what did everybody think about inflation and i'm not trying to pat myself on the back at all uh.

But i i replied with my inflation expectations, which you can follow me on twitter. If you don't yet at real meet kevin but anyway, in addition to replying with sort of my expectations for inflation, i also replied and said: hey. Can we get your opinion too? That is, do you see any improvement in supply chains and elon musk replied to himself that more broadly, things actually seemed like they were getting worse at tesla and spacex, not better. This is all before he challenged putin to a fight, but that's that's a different thing.

Uh, we've now seen the 10-year treasury yield spike uh. It's actually i mean last just about a week and a half ago is 1.7. Our previous peak was about 2 percent. I shorted treasuries at about 1.89 and basically the higher these go the more money.

My short makes and now they've gone up to 2.14 they've hit a record so at least my shorts doing well on treasuries. Some of my lungs didn't like today, but that's okay. I bought a little bit today, but i'll talk to you about why uh so 2.1. We're actually 2.14 now here after hours on the 10-year, and then of course this this fear about consumer spending, consumer sentiment declining right.

So all of these things are really built into the fear perspective that we have right now and it's so wild, because if we compare this to 2021, there is very little reason to be fearful. In fact, if you go back to the fear of let's just say 2020 here, for example, what was the fear that we had in 2020? Well, the second wave right, you remember that the second wave fear or the election drama. Why did we buy the dip like crazy during these times? Well, we did because the fed was our friend. This was very clear.

The fed was our friend, so it was easy to buy the dip. Then now the the fed has essentially no longer become our friend. They kind of stopped being our friend somewhere in 2021 and that's when we started getting a little bit more fearful about how higher inflation for longer and the fed rate left off. But now we have all this.

There is a lot of fear priced into the market right now, and so now there are questions over. Is it possible that this could be a bottom? Is it possible that we're we're you know now is the time to buy the dip, and there are a few things to look at. First of all, i want to look at one quick, technical here or we'll look at a couple technicals, and then i want to tell you a little bit more about my thesis, so keep kevin up right here. So, first of all take a look at this.

You've got a triple bottom here on the qqq on the zero percent fibonacci line now uh. If you saw my video last week, you know that i've moved the fibonacci down from uh, where it was at about 320 to about 3 18 5., and i moved that down when we hit this bottom right here in about 3 8, when we had about the Start of our double bottom, so i did slide the fib down just slightly here, just to update that accuracy, and i always like to give you updates when i move the lines. Otherwise i don't move them. We did fall slightly below that.

But that's okay! You can you can oftentimes extend below the fibs just like over here, but we did close above that fib we closed about 321 is where we're trading for right now and after hours but closed approximately right at the fib, and so what's incredible about this is we Have now tested this zero percent fibonacci on the nasdaq three times: okay, good uh, we we haven't really seen triple dips on the nasdaq here at the same level, uh of these sorts of extremes and, in my opinion, these sort of longer candle wicks are a little Bit of a sign of potential, potentially large margin, calls happening in the industry. That is, you know. People are waking up this morning to margin calls they're getting liquidated and and they're forced to sell, and this is why you do not want to be in margin in this environment right and we're going to talk about my expectations as well here, but quickly. Look at the qq or the sorry the spy here, the spy here closed at 417, which is just fractionally below my 420 zero percent fib, and look at that you're almost triple bottoming here as well.

I think if my fib was about 20 percent, sorry 20 cents lower here actually probably a little bit more more, like 60 70 cents slower. Then then we'd be right under these candles right here minus the wicks, which i think these wicks are really margin liquidations here. But you're seeing a very similar, triple kind of bottom here. I personally think when we compare these double.

You know two sets of triple bottoms: the spy and the qqq to this level of peak fear. We have there's this potential, that is the market, maybe done pricing in fear. That is. Have we fully priced in all of this fear and see? This is where a lot of folks say no way.

How could we price in all of the fear kevin when we have the feb the fed meeting on march uh 16th? It's it's actually on the 15th is when it starts tomorrow. It just ends on the 16th, but so we generally say the 16th, because that's when we hear about it and in my opinion - and i said this in january - i think it's very convenient for people to forget this because they just like to read titles like there Was somebody who had a really good uh tweet on uh on twitter? They said uh, you may want to go. Watch kevin's videos. Instead of just reading the titles, no different than a karen on twitter, you're trained by the headlines shout out to babbage thanks.

I always nailed it but see when i sold in january. I made it very clear that i believed we would hit a level of peak fear before the federal reserve meeting of march 16th and that i wanted to buy back in before march 16th, because i believe that this is when we would get peak fear. And so this is where i try to challenge myself, because i could also be wrong right and i try to ask myself: how can we get more bad news? We can, because we can't look for black swans, because you can't see them right. We have no idea what a black swan could be.

There could easily be another black swan. I mean look at it this way in 2021, were we anticipating war with russia? Were we anticipating an oil price shock to 130? You know we're re-anticipating, some of the the the madness uh that we have now. No, of course not were we expecting that we were gon na get omicron. That was going to mostly remove uh kovid from from our society, with the exception of in china, where we have a lot of supply chains and reliance on supply chains.

No, of course, not right. So there's absolutely the likelihood that there are a lot of bad news. Things that just are not priced in yet because we're not aware of them. Yet that's fine, that's possible, but if we look at these items here, i'm not sure that these items by themselves can get substantially worse.

In fact, i believe that these items are likely to get better before they get worse. For example, i do not believe that the federal reserve is going to rug, pull us and they're going to make that crystal clear on this march 16th meeting watch my video yesterday when i broke down uh, it's i think it's called watch before wednesday, urgent or whatever Very important video about the summary of economic projections that is going to be a critical catalyst for this market. You really want to understand that video, because, when that summary of economic projections comes out, you might want to sit there ready to trade depending on you know what you want to do with your portfolio, but we've already started seeing oil come down right. Not only have we already started seeing oil come down from some of the peaks, but look when opec and ocidental whatever, when, when these massive oil companies tell you we're not going to drill more oil, because we think these high prices are transitory, they don't use the Word transitory, but they literally tell us like we're, going to take this extra money from selling oil at higher prices and we're going to pay down debt and we're going to raise cash and then we'll have more cash during the down cycles.

When the ceos are telling you they're that that's a sign that they know these oil prices are going to go down, they will go down uh so and i've been expecting a commodities collapse. That does not mean we are at peak commodity prices. Don't get me wrong? Commodity price could still go up, but i've been calling for commodities collapse and and you're starting to see. Some of that i mean even just look at the wheat etf w-e-a-t right you're, starting to see that pain.

That momentum that carried us up over here is starting to go away. That's because fear is starting to wane. I know that sounds insane, because this is what it feels like when you're at peak fear like there's so much freaking fear right now. How could somebody tell you we're potentially a peak fear? It sounds idiotic right.

Maybe it is, but that's why i'm trying to logic this out like i, i don't have a crystal ball, but i do try my best not only to be as transparent as possible. Uh not only on this channel, i mean, i think i telegraph all my intentions, so freaking clear, but you know when i do all my buys and sells i'm the only person who tells you what i'm doing with all my freaking portfolio uh. Of course, every single move in the stocks and psychology of money group linked down below, but still that's nerve-wracking. I hate the judgment because i'm just trying to do my best, though right anyway, so inflation of eight nine, maybe ten percent for march spriced in and jerome powell already told us that we're expecting a one-time shock from energy and food prices again look at what we're Already seeing with food prices on wheat right, i know we've had like a nickel short squeeze and some madness and things like that.

Uh, that's, okay, that's gon na happen. Those sorts of wild things are going to happen, but anyway i would say this really gives us upside. It's like it's almost kind of like inflation's, so bad that russia and putin are like, let's just make it really bad, and then it can only go down from there, and i bet you that is what the fed is betting on. Personally, i think a 10 fear of nuclear or nato conflict is highly overblown, so i think that's an upside as well.

In fact, if you jump over here to the ukraine scenarios, i did a video on this this weekend. I hope you watched it. I think there are five scenarios: uh gosh man with the the siri here coupon instead of coup anyway, with the ukraine scenarios, i think there are five scenarios a russia win, and then you have a long-term insurgency in ukraine, which would be disastrous, longer-term sanctions this. This would be bad, not good.

A partial russian win in zalenski bk also not ideal for markets a negotiated end crimea. Georgia ended within six to 14 weeks, we're only three weeks into this. I think this is uh, absolutely a huge upside potential. I don't really think a coup d'etat is likely, although putin getting toppled either by the people or the military is possible and in my opinion the only reason putin would get pot toppled is if the military and generals and the people, or and or decided putin's lost His mind and they kick him out and they send him to an island like napoleon bonaparte, you know to to go, live in obscurity and and uh.

You know solitude uh, so i actually. I personally think this would be an upside and then i really don't think that this nato war is very likely. I don't think that at all uh there's a lot of saber rattling and there's a reason. Russia is shooting rpgs at the office building of a nuclear reactor, it's to increase their negotiating posture.

You know that you want to. You want to create nuclear fear. How about you go over to six reactors in ukraine that are responsible? For you know 15. Plus percent of the energy output of ukraine and just um start blasting away.

You know that that's going to create some fears so uh, that's terrible, but anyway, i do think that a negotiated end is highly likely. We've seen softness from putin on this we've seen softness from uh zielinski on this okay, so uh that uh. That, in my opinion, means we have uh upside again on the ukrainian conflict, which really i mean, i suppose, could be another line item in here. So i'm just gon na put ukraine in general because you have that upside on nuclear fears, but then you also have just upside on on ukraine in general uh.

You know there. There are other downsides uh. I don't think we're going to see this rug, pull this 725 basis, point hikes or whatever no problem. The markets did fine.

When we had this between 2004 and and 2006, which uh that is literally what jerome powell said we should compare to so he thinks we're more like a 2003 and four than like a 2007 right. That's his comparison. Okay, his words uh the or the rate hikes of the early. Like look when i listened to jerome powell, i listen to every word.

People think i'm crazy, but there's a reason he ends up in my dreams at night, most of the time nightmares. Okay. This sounds wrong anyway. Uh the the recession fears, okay, so so this is tbd right.

The recession fears could be a problem here, uh, because they're going to give some some resistance to higher prices. What what recession fears are going to do is they're going to prevent us from hitting all-time highs? You're not going back to all-time highs, probably not this year, honestly, we're not going back to all-time highs. So if you're, if you're buying call options, thinking we're going to go right back to all-time highs, i don't think we're going back to all-time highs. Anytime soon could be wrong, don't think so.

The global gdp decline will also keep this sort of limitation here. The the shenzhen lockdowns and the inflation - i think, there's really only upside from from this, because omicron will will fade. The chinese gets sick, everybody's gotten sick with lomicron. Let's move on now, i know there's some renewed fears about delta cron.

We've heard these fears before we'll wait and see we'll see, uh sure that that's just another potential uh, you know black swan but uh. It's not something i'm worried about right now, but then again you know things could change so we'll keep an eye on that. Okay, so we'll put we'll put a little asterisk down here and we'll put delta c, okay kron i'll, just write it out. Okay, then uh.

You know same thing, i think upside for elon, the logistic issues, the treasuries okay. This is a problem for the real estate market. It does not have to be a further problem for the stock market. I i really would not be surprised to see the tenure go, all the way up to three percent.

That's just my expectation and it's not gon na, be great for real estate in in the short term. It's going to create some headwinds, so we'll watch this and then same thing with consumer sentiment. This is this is sort of a sideways risk, but i think one once some of these other issues go away. It's likely actually that consumer sentiment would rebound.

So i'm actually going to say that has upside okay. So, in my opinion, everything here is either like max fear, priced in or has upside, unless, of course, there are some other. You know black swans right. So the big thing - that's stopping people in my opinion from buying today, are uh two-folded one margin calls because they haven't been watching me since november, telling people to get out of margin.

Literally since november, i've been saying close, your call options get out of margin or limit your margin, because i did go briefly into margin for a short period of time. Myself. Stupid. Don't do that.

I never got a margin. Call okay, two margin: uh margin calls are gon na, be a big issue. Number two fat fear seriously. Uh people who do not pay close attention to jay pal think he's going to come out with another big rug pull.

Maybe he will. I don't think so. We just heard him two weeks ago in congress lay out his plan. The summary of economic projections is going to be interesting because that's not just j-pal, that's everybody together right, but we'll see so in my opinion, if you're investing in this market uh or not and you're sort of on the side waiting wondering what to do.

In my opinion, if you are going to sell if you're looking for a sell opportunity, my expectation is the time to sell, is probably somewhere between march 16 to march 25 27. Something like that right before we get back into labor and cpi and fears like that. Maybe even the 25th that way you're a week before labor on april 1st and then cpi on april 12th uh. I i think this is potentially you know saint patty's day kind of excitement time, but that also potentially makes the time to buy today, uh march 14 to 16 at 11.

Am my thesis could be very wrong, so we just wanted to provide you updates on this uh. One thing i would say in terms of which stocks that you choose, i would really lean probably towards companies that have the best capacity for handling supply chain issues. In my opinion, those are your bigs all right, uh, just a quick example. There's some other names that i have maybe we'll talk about them in the course uh in the morning probably will uh, but just as an example, you can kind of think about this yourself.

All right, so my thoughts check out the programs linked down below on building wealth. I appreciate you watching this a little bit of a longer video, but i think lots of good information. My goal is to bring you as much value per minute as possible. Hopefully, you agree with that and we'll see in the next one goodbye.

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