Hey look: that's an arkamoto right there, how cool anyway, uh there's a tesla convention going on over here and of course i had to make a video because the market just closed about. Well the market. Look, let's make this very simple. If you are buying into equities, you want to buy in the bottom, probably 25 of the fibonacci retracement lines on the qqq or the sp y, because i think we're going to have such a crappy 2020 too.

That there's a chance. The indices will will be negative. This year, which means they'll be in that bottom half of the fibonaccis, actually probably i mean they don't have to be even to the bottom - have to be uh negative, but you know what i mean and i think we're going to see re-tests of lower figures. I really hope we don't retest under 23 uh not to that zero percent.

Fibonacci would be like 318 for the the qqq in case. You want to track along with them, but we're gon na do a lot of zigzagging throughout this fibonacci pattern, and i said it before. I do not think we should be trading in the top one-third. That's stupid, it's euphoric there's too much crap and uncertainty going on.

So we're literally getting what we're expecting like everything that we've been expecting has been happening. So how do we invest in this environment? Because guess what we've also been expecting that consumers are probably going to start cutting back on spending right, specifically, the lower tier items are going to get cut back first, lower tier items, which are low-hanging fruit for everybody to cut back on are restaurants, travel, clothing, retail, Like macy's and that kind of stuff you know the next tier is oftentimes, because you have a higher income, demographic or businesses uh buying here the next year would be cutting back on things like tesla or apple or whatever windy, all of a sudden uh. But but i i'm not super concerned about that right now. I think that's next here and so you've got to ask and cnbc even had it had this real good fud story on their home page like all freaking day all day they had it on their homepage.

About how they ran a survey asking uh uh, you know if people were going to cut back and they found that people who make fifty thousand dollars are just as likely to cut back as those making over a hundred thousand dollars yeah and - and they were a Little surprised by that they thought. Okay, maybe the people making over 100k are still going to keep spending, but i'm a little pissed with the question they asked because they said if high prices continue. Well, obviously, we're going to have a period of inflation for the next few months, but high prices could potentially inflict down here in 2022. Personally, the way i look at this gear is like this look.

Let me give you a visual here: okay, we don't have an ipad right now. So we'll use this that right. There is back at this gas station. We got to get from this side of the gas station to that side of the gas station, because it's nice and smooth over there right.

Okay, this we got to walk through all this crap. This sucks it sucks because it means you got ta live with that volatility. If you're, making short-term options, trades, you're, probably gon na get reamed on them uh. If you're not perfectly right about the directionality.

So then you got to ask yourself: okay! Well, fine, then, maybe don't do short-term trades or cut your losses early on them right, which is fine or because that's trading, but if you're, a longer-term investor, you got to ask yourself, and you want to make a bet on this macro. You have to ask yourself: what's your belief, do you think that inflation is going to inflict down this year or not? If you don't think that inflation's actually going to start inflecting down this year, you probably don't want to be in equities in 2022. Personally, i'm very hopeful that we're going to see that inflection of the downside and that's why i'm in equities and that's why i added uh, almost 2 million dollars to tesla today now it's above where i really want to be shopping for tesla, but that's okay. I've got a bunch of extra cash that i'm saving for when we do get to those lower thresholds in the fibonacci uh retracements.

So what about so? That's that's an important key to remember what about the fed and what about that tenure. So here's the thing the bond market is, i think, accurately, pricing in that there is a risk of a recession. I don't think it's guaranteed by any means, because if we get an inflection point to the downside in uh inflation, then i think people will go back to spending because that's likely going to be a sign that the fed is going to relax, relax rates and uh. Hey we can keep this boom going uh now, more importantly, though, we don't have that answer yet.

So what do we have right now? Well, a lot of fear getting priced into the market and that's showing up with the bonds getting dumped when bonds get dumped. Their yields go up. The 10-year folks just hit 2.7. I've been saying this crap was going to three percent for like four months and it sucks, but it's happening so freaking fast and the market is just getting shell-shocked uh by how quickly these yields are rising.

Now, that's actually not just bad news, though i'm not just here to bring fud uh, but what's the jim kramer line, i can't think of it right now. I'm not just here to teach i'm here to entertain. Oh wait! I don't know those are just his stock trades uh, no okay. So why is this potentially good news? Well, it's potentially good news, because the market is pricing in so much tightening just because the fed is yapping their trap.

The fed loves that you know why. The fed loves that, because it's easy to talk, it's hard to walk it's hard to actually run macro economics as a central bank. It's not as easy as people think, and so, if they can tighten markets, bring down real estate values, bring down stock values, bring down spending to reduce inflation and bring down uh or bring up yields which again have that tightening effect without them actually having to do Anything then they don't have to take that much risk. They could just kind of do what the market's price again, which right now the market to about a 70 to 80 degree, is pricing in the likelihood of a 50 basis, point hike, which would bring us to 0.75 to 1 in interest rate range still quite accommodative.

But, interestingly, this is that good news part. I wouldn't be surprised if the federal reserve actually sticks with the 25 bp hikes, because there's so much tightening already getting priced in, they don't need to shock the market anymore. They didn't tell us they would for sure do 50 basis points. They just said: hey it's an option, it's on the table and in may - and i think this will be a nice buying opportunity between now and the beginning of may.

If we're right and the fed ends up going 25 basis, points which could be wrong, but they go 25 bps because jay powell who's leading the ship tells us he wants to hike like it's 2004. Again, that's what he says. Bullard says he wants to hike like the 90s, where we had the larger hikes uh like the 50 bp hikes. I think we even had a three-quarter basis point, but that doesn't three-quarter rate uh.

It doesn't matter so much so that to me is actually bullish. If that occurs, because it tells us the fed is using their words as a saber to fight this market down market starts getting frothy, they send brainard who's a dove like, let's send the dove out to show her talents market freaking, freaked out all freaking week because Of her damn it, i was supposed to sell some of my options and they screwed it up. They screwed it up. It's okay! You know you can't be perfect on every single trade.

That's all right! I was one percent of my portfolio, i'm just i'm. Just being you know, what's always funny about your portfolio, is you could look at your portfolio? You could be up on. You know, i think, i'm up on uh 90 of my purchases of you know 24 million dollars over the last uh. You know six to seven weeks, but you always focus on the losers.

It's so bad for psychology uh. But if you're aware of that, it becomes easier to uh, not be so concerned about that. Of course you you want to trade. You want to pay attention to them.

You don't want to set them and forget them, because if they're trades, you've got to close them out and move on rebalance appropriately, if they're long terms, then well, i mean focus on acquiring more shares like tesla. Get more shares of tesla uh. I've got more shares of tesla than i've ever had in my life, which is really cool, and i even had more i've got problems. I'm gon na release a tesla video later explaining why, but anyway, so there is going to be, in my opinion, a very strong buying opportunity, so save freaking cash.

How long have i been saying? Save cash people have been asking me for the last few weeks because everything's been so green like ever since, like february 24th i was like, should i buy? Should i just go all in now and it's like be patient. I think that's really important, because obviously look now we're in pullback week sucks hate. It is what it is call a buying opportunity, even if you hate it and uh, and it's gon na get worse potentially before that fed meeting actually likely because we're gon na get a nasty cpi print. Hopefully, core inflation remains at that annualized rate of six percent.

That's going to be key comes out next week core moves up. Then we got problems, we're going to talk again. If earnings come in bad, then we'll talk about earnings and i'm not worried about actually q1 earnings. I'm more worried about guidance guidance is a problem, but we talked about that before.

But anyway we know the buying opportunities are coming uh. There will be more, so don't get too impatient if you're nibbling in you don't have to buy when things are going down. Remember you can wait for a little bit of a bounce too right like wait for the pain to stop. Who knows maybe that's monday.

Maybe today was was the the end of the pain week, the blood week until cpi, but i do think we're going to get low buying pressure until cpi report and then, after that, low buying pressure until the fed meeting. And if the fed this may. This could be the last fed meeting where it's like low buying pressure before the fed meeting before everybody catches on oh yeah just buy the dip before the fed meetings right. This could be the last one because if they go with the 25 bp hike this time and they reiterate uh, you know we're gon na wait for that july august, cpi, print and cpi starts ticking down june july.

We may never see that 50 bp hike this year, which is gon na, be great uh and, i think, will be very, very rewarding. So that's my belief could be wrong uh, it's the stance that i'm taking uh and if you wan na, be part of sort of my stance and my visions uh make sure to check out the uh. I think it's cyber kevin coupon code link down below for the programs on building your wealth. Thank you so much for watching this.

I'm gon na go into the tesla con event now and be patient folks, don't blow it all, but those mortgage rates, but we saw that coming anyway, stay tuned for uh, a real estate, video with matt reisinger too. That's really fun, see ya.