I may have discovered a chart the Federal Reserve is using to determine when it's time for them to stop. Hawking and if you are a long-term investor or Trader I think this chart could be really critical for your investing. It almost perfectly seems to line up with the behavior of the Federal Reserve though I will say I I just had the stomach flu last night. uh, it started at like eight o'clock and I I feel like I lost a fight like I got kidney punched and and like every part of my body hurts I don't even want to sit here right now so sorry, uh, the shot must go anyway.

Uh I hope I'm better, but who knows. Okay, so look I don't want to bore you so I want to I want to speed this up for you? Okay, you've seen this chart before, but you haven't seen the other two. probably. uh, mostly because I've only been kind of talking and brainstorming with course members about it and I'm like I don't know, is it is it and I'm like oh my gosh, it is.

Uh, so we've been brainstorming and it just aligns. It's perfect. Almost. It's really interesting, so it's worth noting that drone Powell does look at charts like this.

This is, uh, something that is called the five year Break Even rate. You've heard that a million times this year it's uh, you've seen this chart but you haven't seen the other two. It is basically a measure of the spread between uh, treasury bonds and treasury bonds that are inflation protected and basically the the higher Uh this number goes, the more the market is seeking inflation protection because they fear that inflation is going to go up. the lower the number goes, the less the market is seeking inflation protection.

That's why the the spread between the the two the break evens we call them can be a market indicator of inflation. You could use the five year or the 10-year they're almost exactly the same. So this is year to date. Obviously this chart looks pretty good, right? It's clear that we are at the lowest points year to date and uh, we this somewhat aligns with uh Actually I would say pretty well aligns with the behavior of the Fed.

From Jerome Powell calling War Game Changer over here, uh to the war actually really commencing, uh and uh and break even inflation skyrocketing. and then you get these sort of peaks in the summer as we started having concerns that wait a minute like inflation is coming down. No, it's not inflation's coming down. No, it's not.

Oh my gosh. And then over here you have Jerome Powell getting a little bit more Angry after Jackson Hole right? So this very much aligns with not only the what the FED says when they talk uh but then also the Market's expectations of of the Fed's actions. So in other words, the more aggressive the FED is, the more we actually see this line go down. And what I've noticed is the more this line goes up, the fussier J-pow gets.

he wants this line down. Uh, and the last press conference was right about here and I'm like I don't know I mean that's that's low right ish. I mean it's not as low as it once was uh, earlier like the end of September over here. But but it's trending down right I think the reason Jerome Powell got as aggressive as he was in this last press conference where he's starting to send the signal that hey, like we're not close, like we still have a long way to go here.

We don't know how long that way is, but he was pretty aggressive in the last Fomc meeting and their SCP projections. Their summary of economic projections data released was pretty hawkish and so then I zoomed out for the five year. This goes all the way back to 2018 on the left side and I realized a little bit more. Okay, this is why Jay Pal's Hawking We can't stay around that level there on the right.

It's way too high. In fact, if you extend that line all the way across, you're at 2018 highs over here. when Jay Pal was potentially going to get fired by Donald Trump for hiking rates they're looking at this charcoal we have. We have to come down.

We have to bring it down, bring it down. and uh, Jay Powell and the FED U-turn leading into. Obviously this is the pandemic, but they u-turn at the end of 2018. Now what's remarkable And I want you to think about this because it really makes sense of this.

Okay, the Federal Reserve where they u-turned at the end of 2018. Where do you think it was I wanted? You're like you will understand this chart and then when I zoom out to 20 years, it's going to make a lot more sense. But I want you to think, where did the Federal Reserve you turn and get more dovish. Remember what I said over here, it's too high for them.

so they're being aggressive. Well if it's too high for them and they're Hawking where do you think they u-turned the fed? You turned right here right at the bottom of the break evens. So in other words, break evens had to start coming down. This is about October of 2018.

break evens start coming down and the FED u-turns all right. We'll pause. rate hikes and inflation expectations go up then because it's like wait, you know that could be bad. But then they actually continue to Trend down.

which is why they kept rates stable. And then of course, they substantially cut rates. Uh, I can perfectly align this. Here they their rate cut.

they're Unlimited foreign and then over here in Covid, where do you think they cut rates? Remember the fed's aggressive when the number's high and then they cut rates when it's really, really low. So if you had to guess where was March 23rd, it's honestly not a trick question. It's right there. So like, when's the FED gonna U-turn Oh, when expectations hit their bottom? Okay, so are we anywhere close to the bottom? Well, we're at a low for 2022 over here, but are we at a low enough level where the FED can cut well? I Mean, after all, rates over here worth noting.

We're about two and a half percent right, and rates over here right now are about 4.25 So we're like way higher. We're way higher. The terminal rate could be double on the right side there. Uh, it means we could hike to five percent right? and that should really drive this Breakeven expectation down.

But now I'm going to zoom out 22 years and this is remarkable. You ready for this? Okay, look at this folks. where do you think the Federal Reserve you turned over on the 20-year chart? Well, the u-turned in about February of 2009, which on the 20-year chart is a little harder for me to pinpoint, but I believe that is right here so it wasn't perfectly at the bottom. But I think you kind of get the idea here.

Right over here. The FED U-turn was basically at the bottom. We know in 2018 the FED U-turn was over here. and if we go to the.com era, we know that the Federal Reserve's U-turn was right about here the beginning of 2023..

So look at that folks. This is a pretty blunt instrument here that kind of tells you exactly when to buy. It's really interesting, so if you want to time the perfect re-entry to the market, if you're you're heavy in cash, you want to make big money or or you're you're all in and you're like dude I wish I was Heavy in cash, right? And you're like I'm all in. maybe that new money that you're earning right now.

Don't put it in yet, right? Look, I'm a personal financial advisor I'm not your personal financial advisor so I can't give you personalized Financial Advice I Don't know your situation right? You know you're buying a house tomorrow. Your situation could be different than somebody who's like I don't need my money for the next 30 Years right? Anyway, Uh, so Point Here is that we probably aren't going to see the rate Cuts start when the FED is or when the break evens are this low because we're still going to have too much residual fear I Would guess if we would get to levels that were in line with 2018 right about here I Think that would be a little bit more acceptable for the FED to certainly pause, if not even start cutting. Now, the difference between where we sit now and here works out to roughly 0.7 0.7 points. So we sit right now at about 2 19.

we need to get all the way down to about 1 149. So when we get to about a spread of 149, that's probably like high time that they cut. It is possible that they pause before that because remember, rates over here were two and a half. Rates right now are four and a quarter.

so maybe this number goes down to one, which we're on our way to going down to one I Wouldn't be surprised that within a month, within 30 days, we're probably at least if this trend continues, we're probably going to be under one and that would Pro that would in my opinion, potentially align with the FED pausing Feb one That would be enough for a pause. Now there's a danger. What If The Fed pauses and then the market skyrockets right So the FED can manipulate this. What they'll do is they might say something like you know they'll send Nikki leaks a text or they'll do some press thing like oh yeah, you know some people are talking about pausing in February right? All it takes is a little hint like that and then like I think they all get around like it's a football game or something.

like all right, let's see what happens. All right, They just went on CNBC or Bloomberg Let's let's see what happens to the break evens. Huh huh? Oh, it's going up. Oh no okay no no, we can't do that if it stays stable or it goes down.

Oh, Oh yeah, yeah, it's going down. you know, like I That sounds simplistic, but I believe it, it just. it almost aligns perfectly. Uh, with history.

it aligns with the Federal Reserve's Behavior Uh or like when they're gonna be hawkish and when not. and I think you could use this tool for trading, uh, or long-term investing quite well. Now it's no guarantee. Uh, you know you could always use the four most dangerous words of investing.

This time is different, but this is a pretty good one anyway. Thanks so much for watching folks. We'll see in the next one. Good luck.

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