Welcome back to the channel everyone today, i want to talk about how evergrande has already defaulted on its step, but the media seem to be covering it up. I also want to talk about the true squeeze potential of amc and whether it can really hit six or seven figures per share, so stay tuned and let's make some money, and now i want to dive straight in with the key information. So before i start talking about evergrande, i want to talk about our resident paper hand, senator pat to me now. You probably already know senator pat toomey, because he's the guy that's proposed the bill to stop the sec from banning payment for order flow.

But what you probably didn't know is that he actually bought some gamestop shares and then paper handed them. So you can see here that pat toomey bought between 101500 worth of game stop on the 27th of january. He then sold those shares on the 28th of january. The very next day now it would be very interesting to know whether pat toomey paper had those shares.

After the buy button was removed and the gamestop price crashed. I wondered just how much money platoomy lost or made on his trade of gamestop. Maybe that's. Why he's so angry and so upset with the apes and he's trying to get the sec to not ban payment for or flow because he lost out on tons of money and wants to see us fail? Now, let's talk about evergrande and then i'll recap on amc towards the end of the video, so the media is lying about evergrande, it's already bankrupt according to dr marco meltzer, dr marco meltzer, says evergrande missed second past due interest payment in a week and it's bankrupt And it could drag down real estate sector hsbc and the entire world financial system.

This past tuesday. I reported that dr marco meltzer, a former fitch analyst and now dmsa, has announced that the past due interest payment on china, eva grande group's offshore international bonds, that all of western media reported as supposedly paid by evergrande, could not be confirmed today. He is stating that a second interest - payment of 47.5 million dollars, allegedly made by eva grande according to western media last night, has not actually been paid once again contradicting mainstream media's reports. I also wanted to thank you guys massively you've been loving the content recently and a lot of you have already signed up with moomoo because of that mumu have given me a special opportunity and i'm one of only four youtubers to receive this opportunity because of you Guys moomoo's new massive promotion gives you three free stocks.

When you sign up and deposit at least a hundred dollars, you get a free stock worth up to 350, a second free stock with a guaranteed value of 54. and a third free stock of neo, with a guaranteed value of 39. On top of that, which is exclusive to my audience, you could always sell those shares and get three entirely free shares of amc just for signing up and depositing at least a hundred dollars. But you have to sign up quick as there's only 300 out of these 400 neo shares left available, so we can see here from sources like the guardian, the evergrande, supposedly averted default with an interest payment.

The chinese property developer evergrande has reportedly made an interest payment for an offshore bond before a grace period expired on friday, narrowly averting a catastrophic default for the second time. In a week on friday, reuters bloomberg and the new york times said, sources with direct knowledge of the matter had confirmed the payment, but evergrande did not respond to router's request for comment and also reuters was not able to determine the source of the funds used to Make the interest payments either, but you've also got sources like yahoo, finance and dmsa, saying evergrande technically defaulted, forcing hsbc and other international banks to write off 197 billion us dollars. Today. The grace period for overdue interest of 47.5 million dollars on an offshore bond issued by the second largest real estate developer in china ended, but there has been no official confirmation of any payment of that interest by the close of business at hong kong banks.

There are only unconfirmed media reports about an interest payment that is said to have been instructed. Today, however, evergrande has not officially confirmed this payment and neither have any of the hong kong banks. No wonder, for example, that a recent report in the financial times today doubts that the money has actually been paid to creditors. This is basically the same game as a week ago noted a dmsa senior analyst marco meltzer, marco, the dmsa senior analyst actually inquired to those investors, but that did not bring any confirmation for the interest receipts where the new york times, reuters and bloomberg actually got their Information from was here, evergrande representatives met with the affected bond investors in new york at 4 pm local time on october, the 28th in the talks institutional creditors, requested information on the status of real estate projects, liquidity and asset valuations.

The meeting ended without an official result, but with a commitment to make the interest payments. The result was published by the new york times yesterday and taken up by the media as if the payments had already been made. However, this is not the case so far as they just made a commitment and therefore, so far, these big media sources, like reuters and bloomberg, are just basically playing. He said she said and taking something that was said by somebody as fact of an actual payment when, in actual fact, nobody has confirmed the payment, not the investors, not ever grande, not the hong kong banks, no one and therefore evergrande is very much still on the Ropes of default and could actually have already defaulted, and it's just being covered up by western media, and i also wanted to talk about.

However, grinde actually got in this position in the first place and what it really means. Two-Thirds of china's top developers breach a red line on there. Now you may have heard me mention in one of my videos previously over the last few weeks about these three red lines that were implemented by the chinese government that basically restrict and monitor the amount of debt that these chinese property developers have well. The first red line is a 70 ceiling on liabilities to assets, basically, meaning that they can't have liabilities exceeding 70 of their total assets.

The second red line is 100 cap on net debt to equity, basically, meaning that net debt can't be larger than equity, which is the equivalent per share capital plus accumulated reserves and any share premium as well, and there's also a third red line of cash to short-term Borrowing ratio basically meaning they have to have at least the same amount of cash as they have short-term borrowings, which is loans falling due within one year. There's then also a color code. Here. Anyone in red has breached all three red lines.

Anyone in orange has breached two of the three red lines. Anyone in yellow has breached at least one of the red lines, and anyone in green has got no breaches at all. So far, so you can see here that evergrande is in the orange with two breeches china. Railway construction is also in the orange with two breeches and country garden.

Here is in the yellow, with only one breech there's also three companies here with red breeches there's another three companies on top of the two already mentioned in orange and there's a whole bunch here in the yellow and two-thirds of the top 30 chinese property firms by Sales ranked by the china real estate information corporation have breached at least one of the metrics known as the three red lines developers are facing rising financial stress as stricter rules around the borrowing and the leveraging campaign by authorities way on the sector. A liquidity crisis in china, evergrinder group has royal markets with the nation's real estate sector, making up almost half of the world's distressed dollar denominated debt. You can see here ranking those developers by size. Every grinder is definitely the largest country garden up next and then vanky china, railway construction and greenland, among many others, and this is exactly why it's not just evergrande, that's in trouble here, it's country, garden, china, railway construction, vanki and many many others on top of those Ones like cynic that have already defaulted, and now i also wanted to talk about the true potential of the amc.

Squeeze there's been way too many posts where apes are coming out, saying that the high floor is not feasibly possible and these posts usually come in. One of the following flavors, the number or the flaw is way too high and it's unrealistic. The market cap of amc just wouldn't make sense and who is realistically going to pay that much per share or the u.s currency would become worthless if it did happen or that there be some kind of government intervention now the first one is. The price is too high and that's unrealistic.

Now, obviously, this is just a feeling or a personal opinion, and i think it really comes from not fully understanding what a legal obligation actually is. So if a hedge fund gets liquidated legally they're obliged to buy back all of the shares that they had been shorted as they have to close out of all of their positions during the liquidation process. Now, obviously, we know that hedge funds have legally shorted a lot of shares, but we also know that they've illegally shorted a lot of shares as well. They have to legally close out of both the legal shorts and the illegal shorts, so this post here gives the example of short hedge funds being legally obliged to buy back 100 million shares.

But i don't really think that's a great example. So let's say: there's a very, very large hedge fund, like citadel that gets liquidated and has to buy back 400 million shares all on their own. Now citadel may well have many more shortages than 400 million shares. They may have at least double the float shorted.

Just on their own, but obviously you're also going to have some other funds out there that are also illegally shorting amc as well. Let's just assume that only one fund gets liquidated, which is citadel and they only have 400 million shares shorted. So therefore, citadel are going to be legally obliged to buy back 400 million shares they can't get out of it and purchase back less. They need to close out of their full position now, obviously, of that 400 million, they could probably buy back about 150 million of them from institutions at fairly low prices, maybe a hundred dollars a share or 200 a share, so that still leaves them with 250 million Shares they need to buy back, maybe they could buy back.

Another 50 million shares say 420, maybe another 50 million at 690 dollars and maybe another 50 million a thousand dollars from the paper hands that sell earlier. That still leaves them needing to cover. A hundred million shares that again they can't get out of and the market price of amc is a thousand dollars per share already. Maybe the next line of apes have got their sale price at ten thousand dollars a share and therefore maybe citadel can get another 50 million shares at ten thousand dollars per share, but they've still got 50 million shares left to cover now, even though at that point Amc would be at ten thousand dollars per share.

Citadel would still have to legally close out of another 50 million shares. Now, let's say: there's nobody left out there. That's willing to sell citadel any more shares for anything less than ten thousand dollars per share. Well, citadels.

Still have 50 million shares that legally need to be bought back now, to give you a real world example of how this might actually work. Imagine that a billionaire is trapped in the desert with no way out they're about to die from dehydration until you, a merchant comes across them. Fortunately, you bought water bottles for 1.50, each at the previous city. The billionaire asks you for some water, and you say that you'll only sell it to them for a hundred million dollars per bottle.

According to those people that say, the price is too high and it's unrealistic. A water bottle being sold for 100 million dollars simply cannot happen because it's unrealistic and maybe the billionaire turns around and refuses and says, nope, i'm not paying you a hundred million dollars for that bottle of water. I'd rather die of dehydration or wait for the next merchant to come along. Maybe the billionaire waits and waits and waits for a few merchants to come along.

Maybe there's a few that do come along and one says: he'll sell him a water bottle for a thousand dollars per bottle. Second merchant says he will also sell him a water bottle, but this time for two thousand dollars per bottle. The third merchant says i'll also sell your water bottle, but mine's gon na cost you ten thousand dollars per water bottle, and maybe there's a fourth merchant that says i will also sell your water bottle, but mine is also going to cost you a hundred million dollars Per bottle, and also there's no more merchants coming this way, because that's all of them, the billionaires, then obviously gon na buy the first water bottle. The second water bottle and the third water bottle for a thousand dollars, two thousand dollars and ten thousand dollars he's then got three water bottles, but that's probably not quite enough to keep him alive once he's then drank all of his water.

He then has a life and death obligation to buy another water bottle for a hundred million dollars per water bottle, because he's legally obliged this time by life and death. And therefore, even though 100 million dollars is an obscene price to pay for a water bottle. In that situation, it might just happen to keep them alive now. Also, what about the market cap not making sense? Well, the market cap can temporarily increase to some ridiculous number, but then again, there's nothing unusual about that during the volkswagen squeeze.

They also became the most valuable company in the world for a short time, even though the company itself was most certainly not worth that much. The price will come down after the squeeze to reflect the company's valuation and in fact not every single ape is going to be able to sell at the very very peak at a hundred thousand dollars per share or five hundred thousand dollars per share, or a million Dollars per share everybody plans to sell the very, very tippy top of the squeeze, but in pretty much every single circumstance, that's not going to happen and they're going to sell before the squeeze is finished or after the squeeze has reached its peak. For example, let's look at dwac and compare it to amc. Maybe this is say forty dollars for amc.

Amc then runs up to a thousand dollars just here and then pulls back to save 300 per share and it then runs up through ten thousand dollars. Fifty thousand dollars all the way to five hundred thousand dollars per share, illustrated here by dwac reaching 175. Now. Obviously, everybody's plan is to sell right at the very top right here at 175.

Now that obviously sounds very, very obscene, because citadel would need quadrillions of dollars to be able to buy back. All of those shares for citadel to be able to buy back 2 billion naked shortage shares at five hundred thousand dollars per share. They'd need literally trillions, if not quadrillions, of dollars, which obviously does sound very unrealistic, but basically, what i want to tell you is that most people did not sell right here. The very tippy top 175 per share.

Most people obviously sold in these few green candles here or on these few red candles here all the way back down and to prove that gurgavin's posted a tweet at 175 for dwac, there was only one singular trade made at 172. There was only 28 trades made and 171.95. There was only five trades made and therefore that's basically only 34 apes that could sell at the very very top of the squeeze, the other hundreds of thousands of apes are going to sell before the top or after the top on the way up or on the Way back down - and i think that's the most important part really yes at the very top of 500 000 per share. It seems very, very unrealistic because it costs citadel quadrillions of dollars, but maybe there's only going to be 34 apes that do sell at 500, 000 per share and the remainder of apes are going to sell 100.

000. 200. 000. 50.

000. 10. 000. On the way up or on the way down now, i also want to talk about who exactly is gon na pay if the short hedge fund becomes insolvent and can't afford the shares at those rising price points like five hundred dollars a share or a thousand dollars, A share then, who is actually going to pay with a prime broker, will be obligated to buy back in citadel's case it's bank of america, and if they can't afford to pay it, then it will be the dtcc, its subsidiaries and its members.

Maybe there's also that sipc insurance that kicks in as well but mostly it'll, be the dtcc and it's wider members, basically that insurance policy and if ultimately they can't, then it may be up to the fed to do so. They may decide to print a bunch of money or just have our names on the book with the amount of money that we're owed. Who knows the point? Is it's not our problem to solve for them, but again, as i just touched on, i don't really think this is the case, because not all four hundred thousand apes are gon na sell right at the very tippy top at five hundred thousand dollars per share. Most apes are gon na sell on the way up or on the way down, guys be sure to.

Let me know down in the comments below what you think about evergrande defaulting and the true squeeze potential of amc and if you haven't already be sure, to sign up to moomoo to get those three free shares, because at the end of the day, everybody loves free Money, and as always guys if you enjoyed this video, be sure to check out some of my others. Alternatively, subscribe to the channel and ding that notification bell, because that way, you'll be alerted. When i upload a new video cheers.