Before we begin this video, there are a lot of comments about why when PPI numbers are coming in negative with the stock market suddenly sell down. The answer is actually very simple: The Federal Reserve will not lift the ugly mask of countering inflation until they have to, because as soon as the Federal Reserve comes out and says inflation's down, guess what everyone does. They spend money and all of a sudden we re-inflate the Federal Reserve must keep the hard face on. That does not mean a soft Landing is not possible.

Also, doesn't mean we're going to avoid a hard Landing. In fact, some say the FED keeping the hard face on will be the exact same thing that happens the last Fed cycle so 2021, the beginning of 2022. the Fed was too late in responding to high inflation. Now, the FED might end up being too late in responding to low inflation, which means they actually damage our economy more than suspected.

So in case you see good news on inflation in the near term sold off in the stock market. It's entirely normal for this Market to react to fears that the FED will actually over tighten too long, keeping the boot on our neck and our face in the mud for so long that we end up suffocating. That is a very real risk. So as you watch this video balance the Fed's slowness in your this is one of the most important videos I Believe you could watch on the recession and which stocks to pay attention to.

There's a lot of detail in this. Don't worry, I'll be breaking it down and signposting some takeaways from it, which I think are very important. Keep in mind, the information in this video is reiterated by Insane misses on producer price inflation that came out this morning Revisions of Prior data that bring producer price inflation lower and retail sales numbers missing. That's good on one hand, but it could be bad for that earnings recession, which we'll also be talking about in this video.

Very detailed video. Buckle up and enjoy! We are arguably facing one of the most predicted recessions of all time. The Wall Street Journal suggests 61 of economists agree that we are going into a recession yet. Jerome Powell says we have a 50 chance of a soft landing and if the Federal Reserve thinks we have a 50 chance of a soft landing and a 50 chance of a recession, what is the data? Tell us.

Well, in this video, we're going to go through multiple reports. We're going to start with some insights from what Morgan Stanley said in their earnings call, which could be quite fascinating. It's something that really nobody's talking about. Then we'll talk about: Goldman Sachs Expectations on recession soft Landing versus hard Landing what to expect for earnings and stock predictions as well as which stocks could do well and which might not.

We'll also look at some brief analysis by JPMorgan Bank of America. We'll also look at the Empire State manufacturing data that oh boy, there's some interesting Insight regarding this and what it has to tell us about inflation data coming up next month, as well as that darn remaining risk for inflation data that also few people are talking about as well as consumer data. Let's get into a very thorough report on what to expect going forward. The first thing that we're going to do is we're going to look at this incredible piece from Morgan Stanley Now this right here is an earnings call from Morgan Stanley that was just released within the last day or so here.

since Morgan Stanley just reported earnings and I personally believe that one of the most important leading indicators of economic data you can look at are what executives are saying in earnings calls. Now you have to be careful. This is really important. You have to be careful because earnings calls on one hand are a sales pitch for the company.

like please don't make our stock go down. On the other hand, they can give you leading information about what's going on in the economy. For example, in January of 2020, every single earnings call I read talked about how much pricing power companies thought that they had and that gave me massive concerns that we were about to face an incredible inflationary. A nightmare which is exactly what we ended up facing over the last year.

Now though, I'm starting to see a little bit of a turning point and this piece by Morgan Stanley was incredible. Now generally something that's worth you knowing is every morning at 6 a.m Pacific time before the Market opens I am starting course member live streams and you're welcome to get lifetime access to those where we can talk Q A and do analysis together if you'd like. just use the coupon code link down below. The prices will be going up after January 30th, so get in before the next 12 days.

Lock in that pricing and you'll get three month guaranteed. Best pricing and probably honestly you'll have the best pricing continuing on from there anyway. but we'll see anyway. let's take a look at these numbers here.

So Morgan Stanley came out with the following first: I Want to start on an ad that when it comes to Investment Banking and the Investment Banking pipeline, what we're realizing is a change that's happening in economic Outlook that CEOs are actually having conversations in boardrooms or that will allow CEOs to have conversations in boardrooms to have more confidence in their economic Outlook when it comes to Peak inflation and potentially Clarity on what to do with the company going forward. So I'm gonna paraphrase that a little bit here, but let me clear that up when Executives make business decisions with other Executives they reasonably would get together and say look, should we invest should we buy a corporate jet For example, for the expansion plans for the various business models that we have and if we as a board think that, well, the economy is going to be in a substantially worse position, why would we ever buy a jet going into a deteriorating economy? Well then obviously a company might say, you know what we don't want to do that, Let's hold off on large purchases, Let's reduce our purchases, and by reducing our purchases, what are we effectively doing? we're reducing GDP And we're contributing to a recession, right? But if as Executives we actually think that we might just be going through a shallow correction, a short-term recession, and essentially an adjustment period where we go from high inflation to slowly seeing low inflation, that inflation will taper off and we'll go back to a boom economy, then we might say, you know what buying a corporate jet or making a large business investment might actually make sense because now we could strategically position ourselves in a recession when other people are fearful and we take advantage of that opportunity to expand, right? That's basically what Morgan Stanley here is saying in just an example here. and what I think is so fascinating is is what you see here is the macro environment you laid out is one where there is more clarity on the economy and when we have more clarity on the economy, we get a reduction in volatility and we get better business making decisions from companies or more clear business decisions from companies that could enable earnings growth as companies actually start reinvesting in their businesses rather than shrinking. This is actually really interesting because if you look at the bank earnings in aggregate, almost all of them are spending more money on Advertising.

Now what's remarkable about that is you've got people like the CEO of JP Morgan Jamie dimon saying things like ah, we're gonna face an economic hurricane on one hand, yet on the other hand, the banks in aggregate are advertising more than ever before. they're all painting this picture of Doom and Gloom yet they're all kind of like, hey, this ain't gonna last long, let's advertise and try to get more clients. It's kind of like what, right? So the most predicted recession ever is really starting to look like an opportunity for a lot of businesses. and that's what we're starting to see in early indicators from earnings calls just coming out within the last 24 hours.

Take a look at this, here's the CEO of Morgan Stanley I'm highly confident that when the FED pauses deal activity and underwriting activity will go up I would bet the I would bet the year on that. In fact, CEOs The CEO's job is to drive growth in their businesses and they do that in two ways: organic and inorganic and I've been doing this for a long time and I've done both. The only tricky part about inorganic, once you've got your strategy set is timing and sometimes you got to ignore timing. But the market is really volatile behooving.

CEOs particularly those relatively early in their careers to be cautious. Uh, and that's what we're seeing. However, that will change. Okay, so the translations and sometimes the transcriptions aren't perfect.

So that's why sometimes the wording is a little weird. But basically this CEO is saying. Look, I've played this game before and you've got a lot of people who are cautious right now. A lot of CEOs in those boardrooms who are cautious.

but based on what we're seeing, we think that's going to flip and we're going to see an incredible bull flip from corporations. Now who knows? that could be the wrong move. But a lot of people seem to be aligning with this with their behavior, not necessarily with their warnings. So on one hand, you've got a lot of Institutions and corporations warning about tough times ahead and tough macro ahead.

But Behavior wise businesses are still investing like crazy and they're trying to compete more. Which is interesting because on one hand, the concern would, be, well, what if that's inflationary, right? What if that keeps pushing up the inflation narrative. But on the other hand, if inflation Falls and businesses keep investing, maybe you want to look for companies to invest in where businesses are planning for growth and taking advantage of these recessionary opportunities. And Goldman Sachs actually provides us a list of stocks that could do well in a soft Landing scenario or a hard Landing scenario.

Now I'm going to go through that list of stocks. But first, what we're going to do is we're going to break down what they think is more likely: Do we think we're going to get a soft Landing Which is really no recession? Or do we think we're going to get a hard Landing Which is a recession or a deeper recession, right? Let's take a look at what their estimates are and then we'll look at their stocks and what the market is. Pricing in what the market price is pricing in is actually pretty critical. First, go: Goldman Sachs Sees a little bit of a disconnect.

They see that 57 percent of their clients expect a recession. Remember, this is similar to the 61 percent of economists expecting a recession. However, Goldman Sachs has actually become more optimistic. They actually think that a recession is no longer necessary in order to tame inflation, and only 35 percent of their economists actually expect a recession.

That means the market might be a lot more pessimistic than is actually necessary to keep inflation down, which is a really good thing for markets and a sign that may be the bottom of the market is actually behind us. Worth noting that Citigroup just this morning reduced their odds of a recession from 50 percent to 30 percent. So you're seeing a lot of these recessionary odds start falling. but the yield curve is now the most inverted that it has been since 1981..

usually the yield curve indicates we've definitely got a recession coming up. and generally the hard part about the yield curve re-inverting is that when it reinverts, that's often when we see the biggest stock market paying now. TBD It's entirely possible that this entire recession is just caused by the Federal Reserve's tithing, and when their tightening goes away, the yield curve balances back up and everything rallies back to peace. That's the Goldilocks scenario, but we've got some head widths.

Let's talk about those after all. Goldman Sachs suggests that we might have an extended period of below potential growth, but that period will help rebalance supply and demand in the labor market and dampen wage and price pressures with a much more limited increase in the unemployment rate than historically would be implied. In other words, a less deep recession. Now, what's very interesting about this is, uh, well.

they make some additional commentary here because we're going to get into stocks in just a moment that they recommend, but they also suggest that supply chain recovery finally appears to be yielding to the deflationary payback, which is great on the services side, which has been pretty sticky. Services are expected to take a little bit longer because of the lag in wage growth slowing down, but they expect that to occur and they actually expect that inflation is going to plummet core. PC Inflation down. to 2.9 in December 2020 3 and CPI down to three percent in December of 2023..

Remember folks, there are a lot of people who believe how are we going to go from six and a half to two percent or three percent? That's insane. That's a crazy drop. How's that going to happen? Remember, you have to always always remember that inflation is a year-over-year comparison. And if you look at this particular projection chart right here and inflation is, let's say here and you compare to a higher period the year before you have deflation, right? So you're always comparing to a higher Point well or a point in the year prior to see what inflation is.

So really. Again, always remember this if a hamburger costs a hundred dollars because inflation is so bad the next year it costs a hundred and ten dollars. You add 10 inflation If the year after that, it costs 110. The burger still costs you 110.

But what do you think? Inflation is zero percent, right? That's what's pretty cool about inflation. And then that look, don't get me wrong, there's nothing really cool about inflation. but I Think you know what I mean. It's a nice thing to know that even if prices don't come down, they just stabilize.

You have zero percent inflation. And so even if they increase a little bit, but just not as much as the year before, you could get to two percent inflation. you just have to wait for that year over year comparison. And this is where Goldman Sachs is projecting the following: In terms of percentages: They really see a massive plummet in inflation personally.

I Actually think there's a likelihood that these charts could end up going negative and we end up seeing some quarters or periods of deflation. That'll be quite incredible. But before we talk about deflation, we've got to talk about what's priced in right now for a soft or hard landing and that we actually have right here from Goldman Sachs So Goldman Sachs suggests there are two stories when it comes to understanding what the market is. Pricing in Story Number One is earnings per share.

That is how much are earnings per share expected to decline? Basically, to really simplify that for you, if a company is worth a hundred dollars and there are 100 shares outstanding, and each share therefore is worth one dollar. and let's say those shares make about 10 cents, there we go per share. We want to know how much is that earnings per share set going down because multiples attach these right. If a company's worth a hundred dollars, there are 100 shares outstanding and each share is a buck and earnings per share are 10 cents, then the company is selling for 10 times earnings, right? But the problem is if earnings per share go down and they get cut to eight cents.

Well now what do you have? Well, if you go down to there we go, that's eight cents. You go down to eight cents and you're still selling for 10 times earnings. Now the Stock's actually not worth a dollar. It's only worth 80 cents, right? 10 times earnings.

That's a 20 decline in the stock price. That would be bad. And so that's why a lot of people are wondering what's priced in for an earnings per share decline? Well, Goldman Sachs tells us the following. in a sharp change from Trend last year when earnings per share estimates were stable.

S P 500 earnings revisions point to a downside story. In 2023, the three-month trend of earnings per share revision stands at negative 31 percent. The most negative reading outside the 2008 and 2020 recessions. In other words, it's still not as bad as what we saw in 08 in 2020, but still pretty dang ugly.

And you could see that charted right here. Very bad, very bad. And oh, God we've priced in a lot of pain already. Now, this was not true about six months ago, and no surprise, stocks have actually trended lower because of that because we still had to price in the earnings paying.

Well, now, what's happening now? The earnings recession points to a fall in earnings per share of 11 S P 500 earnings to about 200 bucks. This is actually slightly less severe than prior recessions because Goldman Sachs believes there are fewer imbalances in the economy. We don't have the crazy sort of financial crisis that we did in 2008 knock on wood? Hopefully not. But Goldman Sachs says look 11 is already priced in and Goldman Sachs actually thinks that this EPS decline uh is pricing in a pretty hard Landing.

In fact, they think that the EPS display decline in a hard Landing scenario would be less than previous scenarios of like an average of 13 and therefore an 11 decline in S P earnings aligns with a hard Landing scenario. So in other words, simple English Markets are pricing in when it comes to earnings per share? A hard Landing already for earnings per share. However, when it comes to margins and this is tricky. Okay, this gets tricky when it comes to margins.

This gets a little harder. We're going to jump on over to this projection. here. our forecast is that margins will decline in all sectors under both the Baseline and recession scenarios, and unfortunately, markets have not fully priced in a margin contraction yet.

Instead, markets are only pricing in a 26 basis point decline. But they believe that in a soft Landing we're going to see a 58 basis point Decline and in a hard Landing 125 basis point decline. Now, let's take a pause from that for a moment because it's pretty dang tricky. All the information they just gave us, they're basically telling us the following: Look, We think markets have already priced in bad news that earnings per share are going to go down, but the place where the market isn't really realizing the pain yet and fully realizing pain fully pricing it in is in margins.

That basically means if you sell a product for 100 bucks and it costs you seventy dollars to make it, you have a thirty percent, uh, gross profit margin, right? Thirty percent 30 cents left over. In that example, 30 bucks, 100 minus 70 30 bucks left over. Well, if that gets squeezed because costs remain high, or you have to reduce the price, like let's say, you reduce the price to 90 bucks and your costs go up to 75. now you're only making 15 bucks.

That's half of what you were making before. Now some say, well, margin compression is already recognized or realized in the earnings compression, right? So maybe you don't have to worry about that so much. But my take away from this is that either way, let's ignore Goldman's analysis for just a moment. given that they suggest, hey, we're pricing in a hard landing on EPS But maybe we haven't fully priced in all the pain from margin compression.

I Kind of merged these together and I Think to myself, the stock market's already got quite a bit of pain priced into it. Now for earnings and margin. Maybe a little bit more than necessary. maybe a little bit less than necessary.

But I think the Practical bottom line here is the stock market's already primed for a hellish earnings season and that could lead to positivity and optimism after we actually get earnings. Now we don't want to play a game of hopium, right? that's a problem. But Goldman Sachs does give us a list of stocks that would benefit in either of the scenarios. So here's the soft Landing portfolio that Goldman Sachs think thinks will do very well.

Their first stock that they think will do the best Tesla a stock with in my opinion High pricing power even in the face of price Cuts because of their margins. But anyway, here are just some of the names you can pause on the screen here to see them, but they see: Tesla Garmin Mohawk Industries Top Build Pinnacle CME Group Synchrony Financial Uh and you can continue on here: 3M AMD Qualcomm Trimble Software Company here. Uh, you know Vulcan Materials Whatever these are are some of the soft Landing stocks that they believe in, and when it comes to hard Landing stocks, this changes substantially. They focus instead on companies like Activision Blizzard and EA I.

Was actually surprised that they included Home Depot and Lowe's since I think in a real estate crisis as we're seeing home prices come down which would just be worse in a hard Landing scenario. I think people are going to spend less on their homes. so I think Lowe's and Home Depot won't actually do very well. but okay, this is their take.

Best Buy Costco Kroger Tyson Food Pfizer Microsoft Visa Mastercard into a paychecks block a lot of Staples in here, right? So this should be pretty clear, but in the hard Landing scenario, you probably want to invest in things that are more value focused or more focused on things that people have to use anyway like people are going to be going to Costco no matter what. whereas maybe you have a little bit more of a consumer just discretionary push in the soft Landing scenario, right? The good news is that Goldman Sachs believes this is a nice little bottom line for the Goldman Sachs part. Goldman Sachs believes there's a significant amount of pricing in already of earnings per share pain maybe not fully yet on margin compression. So be careful in how you choose stocks.

And this is actually where I personally like to look at companies and go okay, which companies do I think are going to survive best in margin compression and earnings compression personally. I think those are pricing power stocks and I think it makes sense to look for stocks that have pricing power either by looking at actively managed ETFs exchange traded funds. Those are great because of the tax benefits of ETFs being able to rebalance and trade stocks within the portfolio without passing on capital gains to you amazing tax hack and I love pricing power ETFs because of that hack or look for individual companies that you think have the most resilience for EPS declines or margin declines. Okay, things to pay attention to.

Now something else that we want to pay attention to is JP Morgan and Bank of America What are they projecting? Well JPMorgan gives us some fascinating insights about the economic environment for 2023, and they also hedge by saying, look, there's a real possibility that 2023 could be worse than the environment was in 2022. However, given that, we actually don't believe that things are as bad so far as they have been in the past. In other words, even though they are increasing their loan loss reserves, they're nowhere near the loan loss. Reserves Pre-pandemic Not only that, but take a look at some of these spending numbers here.

Combined debit and credit card spend up nine percent year-over-year Both discretionary and non-discretionary spend up year over year. Strongest growth in discretionary being. Travel retail spend up four percent. That's that's comparing to a really, really strong 2021.

Retail spend is still up over last year. E-commerce spent up seven percent. Now, yes, obviously inflation's up like seven percent, right? So the real numbers are like flat to negative. But the fact that it's even flat to negative compared to the insane spending we saw last year is really, really good.

Like this is incredible. And JP Morgan says that consumer cash buffers for the lower income segments are expected to be back at pre-pandemic Levels by the third quarter of 2023. In other words, JP Morgan Thinks people still have cash buffers going into the first quarter of 2023. That's insane.

So on top of that, delinquency rates for credit cards are at 80 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Think about this for a moment. I I Know there's a lot of information in this video and that's why I like to sign post what I think is going on here, but put this together for a moment. Morgan Stanley is quote not planning for a dark period ahead? Morgan Stanley says quote.

A lot of money is sitting around waiting to be put to work when the FED starts cutting. A lot of people excited to invest boardroom. Talk about maybe people are going to start going bullish again. Goldman Sachs going.

Maybe we don't have everything priced in, but we're already pricing in some pain for stocks and maybe there won't be a recession. JP Morgan and Banks advertising more than ever before and JPMorgan telling you look things things are actually still building or at least flat. Compared to 2021, it's actually not that bad. I Mean even flat growth compared to 21 ain't that bad and delinquency rates being lower than before.

This is all kind of lining up for not such a horrible situation. Now you've got to keep your job though, and this is where some estimates aren't that great. JPMorgan For example, thinks that we're going to get to a peak of 4.9 unemployment rate. The FED thinks we're actually going to Peak out at 4.5 So that means JPMorgan does see unemployment going higher which will be bad for the people who get laid off and Bank of America still sees a mild recession coming, but is also reducing how bad they think it's going to be.

Though they still think 5.1 percent unemployment. So even Bank of America is like higher unemployment than the FED thinks, but less bad than we've previously thought. So you are actually starting to see forecasts from Bank of America JP Morgan Goldman Sachs Pricing Less of a recession risk and they're starting to soften on some of their their approaches because data is coming in soft and they're like wow, Maybe we can actually get inflation down without a recession. Maybe the soft Landing is possible.

I Mean look at this. these are delinquency rates on credit cards. Yes, yes folks, delinquency rates on credit cards are up, but compare them to what they were before the pandemic. If anything, they're basically at like 2014 and 15 levels.

but again, yeah, it's trending up so we want to pay attention to it. Household: Debt Service Payments which includes mortgage payments basically at or below historic Norms If you don't look at the uh mortgage payments and you just look at Consumer Debt Yeah, we're starting to move up a little bit on Consumer Debt You can see that right here. We're kind of sitting at those levels that we were at 2018 and 2019. So yeah.

okay. Consumer Debt Payments are up again. Things we want to pay attention to. But even JP Morgan tells us people got a lot of cash.

Sure, there are still risks for inflation. One of the big risks for inflation, for example, is Hospital related services in medical related Services Because remember the three pieces of inflation that seem to be inflecting down? we have one, which is called Goods Inflation Goods Inflation already plummeting. Number two: Housing inflation which has been really, really sticky. and we and we know that housing, rent of shelter, rent of primary residents make up huge weights of CPI over 32 percent, right? And then we have wage inflation, which in part comes from hospital and medical related services medical related Services make up a six point, almost eight percent weight when it comes to inflation.

And what do you have here? Well, you have sudden jumps again in the inflationary numbers for Hospital related. Services Now that could be as The Economist puts it because of. well. basically High medical related.

uh, demand because more people are getting sick. whether it's with Covid or the RSV flu that's going around or whatever. Here's for example, a piece where an England average wait times for ambulance response times jumping from 20 minutes pre-pandemic for category 2 incidents which are like heart attacks and strokes up to 90 minute average response times This is putting a lot of pressure on hospitals around the world, although America is doing better. Average: Hospital Occupancy rates recently exceeded eighty percent for the first time.

So you're seeing a lot of Demand on Hospital services that could push up inflation, but that's like the last piece of the puzzle that we're seeing is housing and Hospital inflation that needs to come down so far. Otherwise, everything's plummeting. Look at. For example, the New York Empire State Manufacturing survey.

Business activity continued to contract sharply in the New York State area. Now, of course this is just the New York State area, but it is. It is a frequently tracked survey and something that tends to be a leading indicator for the rest of the country and for inflationary statistics. Usually when the Empire State manufacturing survey starts plummeting, inflation starts plummeting and look at some of these numbers.

Headline: General Business Conditions Index fell to negative 32.9 New orders and shipments declined substantially. Fifth month in a row of Falls Delivery times held. steady inventories etched, higher employment growth stalled. average work week shortened input.

price increases slowed considerably. selling price increases moderated so less inflation, right? So this is like an insane amount of data that that you've just gotten. I am a data nut and these are the kinds of things that I like to teach in my courses On building your wealth is how to get this sort of data. How to analyze this sort of data? How to learn and build your wealth using logic, right? Whether that's in stocks deep fundamental analysis Whether that's in real estate, wedge deals, Buying properties below market value whether that's in property management or being a YouTuber or being an agent right of course, is on all of this.

or increasing your income on negotiating. Check those out by the link down below. But how do we put all of this together? Because again, I Realize this is like oh my gosh. Kevin This is so much information.

I Think all of this information is very clearly pointing in. One Direction It's saying that look, recession or not, maybe things aren't going to be as bad as everybody thinks. Maybe stocks are already pricing in a good reduction for earnings. Yeah, some companies might get hit with margins, and maybe that's actually a risk to the indices.

Maybe that's a risk to the S P 500. and instead of being an index-based investor, maybe now makes the sense. or it makes the most sense to start picking individual stocks that you think have the most pricing power. Now look yeah.

I'm a licensed financial advisor I Run an actively managed ETF I sell programs on building your wealth I Just want to be clear when I talk about these stock recommendations Goldman's talking about or some suggestions I'm not giving you personal financial advice, right? But from a financial point of view, there's some potential optimistic moves you can make here. You don't want to play hopium, you know YOLO call options not an investing strategy, but put the piece of the puzzle together here: Leading Inflation data: Empire Manufacturing Reports isms Morgan Stanley Boardroom Talk Bank Advertising spending Goldman Sachs Expectations Economist Expectations for a recession JP Morgan and Bank of America optimistic outlooks while reducing their negative outlooks. The leftover inflationary risks being relatively nominal health care but expected based on at least talk from The Economist to wane in the coming months, especially as we get out of the winter season and flu season credit card Trends Debt spends consumer spending Trends Consumer excess cash balances while declining still present per JP Morgan When you put all of this together, it all points to One Direction and I Want to be super clear about that because again, I Know this is a lot of information, but look if this is a baseline right here, let's draw that a little later. If this is a baseline right here.

all of the stuff that I'm talking about so far start looking like or starts to look like a lot of green shoots. Now you want to be careful, right? We don't want to be in a situation where we're getting overly optimistic. but uh, frankly, I'm looking for the bad news out of all of these reports and the only piece of bad news I saw in all of this was margin. That's it.

Margin for companies margin compression. That's it. So that is a risk. But again, look for companies that have insulation here.

Otherwise, again, everything we've looked at: odds of recession, consumer data inflation data leading Isms manufacturing reports Uh EPS Corrections Already priced in boardroom? Talk personally I Think it makes sense to start considering the possibility that we may either be at bottom or the bottom may already be behind us. Might be time to start thinking about deploying more cash rather than less. Again, not personalized. Financial Advice for you, but these are very, very different indicators from what we saw in January of 2022.

Very very different. In January of 2022, this was flipped. it was mostly down arrows compared to up arrows. Ah, Now the last thing I have to say is I would love to meet you in person and I'm considering doing local events in cities across the continental.

United States basically anywhere I could fly to I'm thinking about doing Fridays era, maybe maybe Friday events I'm not sure. Let me know in the comments down below if you consider a Friday event. But basically I'm thinking about doing uh events where I teach real estate wedge deals and and we get to do a Meetup and Q a and stuff like that from somewhere probably around like 10, 30 or 11 in the morning to five. Uh, and we do basically some kind of event at a hotel, conference room or whatever, if that's something you're interested in.

Let me know in the comments down below. if you want to fly with me privately and Shadow me as we explore real estate, you could do that as well via the link down below. Now, when it comes to the bottom line, you've got to ask yourself: do you believe that this potential recession will go away when the Federal Reserve flip-flops? If the Federal Reserve flip-flops? you probably want to be long on the market because there's a chance the market will bottom well before earnings bottom, which is historically true. Historically, the stock market bottoms three to six months before the bottom in earnings, and you typically might expect that if the FED starts reducing rates, the Market's already priced in those Fed actions, and therefore you don't want to wait for that to occur and instead you want to be in the market before that fed flip-flop so to speak.

However, historically, the inverting of the or the re-inverting of the yield curve so to speak that is, it's inverted, so the steepening of the yield curve can be quite painful. Also, often and historically, the stock market doesn't actually bottom before the FED u-turns so that would require a lot of hope that this time is different. And basically, if you're investing right now, you're saying you think all these positive signals mean the Fed's going to stop and the FED is the only reason we're facing a recession and If the Fed Catalyst goes away. We can go back to a happy Market if there are truly structural and underlying issues that you believe exist in the economy, to where even if the FED nightmare goes away and the FED stops talking, we're still facing those structural issues they probably don't want to be invested in the market.

I Personally am a fan of believing that the only reason we have pain right now is the Federal Reserve who's trying to fight inflation And if inflation goes away, then the pain of the FED tightening goes away and we're back to a continuation of 2019, which should be relatively positive.