Hey everyone me kevin here in this video, i'm announcing a change along with some exciting information, but first i'd like to clear up. What's going on number one, i do not regret transitioning my portfolio at all, because i believe that there is substantial pain still ahead of us. I don't know when that pain is going to come. I don't believe it's going to come upon cpi data releases.

I believe it's much more likely to come when our central bank discusses policy action, the next time we'll be on march 16th. However, the true pain might not even come in march. It could come as late as q1 2023, which is one year from now and so we'll see when the fears get stoked in the market that i believe will come, and i believe that right now, markets are absolutely mispricing. The risk we face markets appear to believe that when supply chains relax and when interest rates go up to just measly one percent, despite the fact that household balance sheets are relatively high and so are corporate balance sheets they're, all relatively high, which means a one percent Increase in rates is unlikely to do much.

It is entirely likely that inflation will continue to persist, especially given the fact that i have read now dozens of earnings reports in every single company whose earnings reports i read, talk about more and more price hikes, not just in the past, but ahead of them, including Enface, fortunately, i've got a straddle on end phase that went through earnings here and we're gon na make some attendees on that end. Phase trade, which is great but what's not great, is the reality that in their earnings they talk about the fact that they continue to expect pricing power and expect to increase just, for example, the product cost of their batteries by seven percent. In may. This means they're planning, more and more price hikes out into the future and we're seeing this at company after company.

I believe this pain will continue and it may take time for it to get fully realized in cpi now. In the meantime, the bond market appears to be. Pricing in perfection appears to be pricing in the fact that the federal reserve will have the ultimate ability to reduce inflation. That individuals will just stop paying as much money for products even though prices are going up and that somehow, when supply chains resolve themselves, companies will no longer take advantage of their pricing power to increase their margins.

Consumers will end up then paying lower prices and will be in that deflationary environment. We've kind of all been waiting for, but really shouldn't expect for likely two to four, maybe even five years. At the same time, fear assets like gold haven't even moved, but an ounce pun intended. This means that, in my opinion, in addition to looking at that bond market and those break-even rates, we have substantial risk in this market.

That is not priced into valuations. A lot of individuals believe that pain is already priced in. We, i believe, we're at the beginning of pain, but when we have green days in the stock market, it's very easy to get short-sighted and short-term, investing and focus on day-to-day fluctuations rather than evolving market cycles. And i believe that we are in an evolving market cycle, as warren buffett says just because mr market is screaming a price at you does not mean that you need to take it or even mind it.

Warren buffett also tells us to be fearful when others are greedy, and i am fearful that others are really greedy right now that the belief is don't worry, we don't need the fed's wind at our back, we'll, invest without the fed and we'll make money we'll go To the moon without the fed, i think this is a greedy belief. I believe that we have excessive spending by consumers an economy - that's actually very, very strong, because people have more money than they've ever had before and they're spending it like crazy, excessive spending on products, excessive credit card spending, excessive borrowing, excessive margin, excessive household debt, excessive real Estate prices and excessive stock valuations, as well as this excessive resolve by uneducated investors, who believe that there is just no possibility that we can be at the start of a macroeconomic downturn and any even hint to the possibility of a macroeconomic downturn is just thud. The dr fudd and mr fudd is just here to give us bad news again as a result, i personally believe that a change is in order which i'll talk about in a moment, along with a positive announcement, so we'll have a sad announcement and a positive announcement, But first i want you to know that you have to make your own decision. In my opinion, there are two decisions that you can make number one.

Is you follow the psychology of money of buying the dip and focusing on the quantity of your shares and not on the price of your shares? I believe that this is appropriate if your portfolio is is certainly less than one to two times of your income and instead focus on growing the shares that you have in your portfolio. The number of shares you have not on the value of your shares, try not to time the day-to-day market fluctuations absolutely important, but instead you do have another choice, especially for those with larger portfolios, and this is the second option. Second option is potentially timing: the greater market cycle timing - the bottom will be nearly impossible just like timing. The exact top will be nearly impossible, but i do believe that there is an opportunity to time a transition from the top half of the cycle to the bottom.

Half of the cycle - that is why i presently have sold over 99 of my stock holdings and i've also begun selling some of my real estate. I presently believe that we have a 60 to 70 risk of a recession ahead of us in, quite frankly, the next six to 12 months. That means, i believe it is more likely that we will face recessionary risks than not, and i will also be hedging. My cash position with alternative investments and preparing for new opportunities as true fear enters the market, because only when there is real fear in the market and not anger, and this misguided belief that markets can only go up after a dip.

Then that is when i want to be prepared to enter the market when we have truth here and that's what i'm looking for. However, look. The choice is not easy for everyone and, unfortunately, sharing the day-to-day fluctuations of the market with you, while it has been entertaining it, has not been healthy for me, and so i am no longer going to be conducting market open and market closing live streams, at least For the foreseeable future course, member live streams will persist and, starting tomorrow, at 5 25 am, i will be live streaming any sort of breaking events with only course members. I believe this is a reward to those of you who support me, and i will always maintain my promise to you that i will provide you more value now.

I do have another exciting announcement that i want to make in just a moment, but first i want to mention the gyrations and apologize because the gyrations of markets over the past two to three to four weeks have really delayed my full release of the path to Wealth course - and i apologize for that - i'm not perfect and i make mistakes. However, i'm planning to now expand the path to wealth course to a path to wealth logic and cash flow course, with new lecture check sections coming out in the coming weeks now, some additional and, in my opinion, exciting information. First, first, i'm massively preparing myself and my portfolio for a very large transition. In fact, the money that i raise from either selling stocks or hedge trades or from real estate we'll be going into a very new venture that i'm excited to announce.

If you want to be part of that announcement and potentially invest with me in this new venture, consider dropping your information at medkevin.com cashflow, because this new venture, in my opinion, could be an opportunity for us to invest together, especially if you're an accredited investor tbd. If not accredited will be allowed things. Things are very much in flux, but my goal is: if we end up rotating from the top of a market cycle to the bottom, that we have the opportunity to invest together at the bottom of the market. That is what i am very excited for because, if you get time a market cycle change, which is something that requires a lot of patience going into the market cycle change and gives you time when you're at the bottom of a market cycle change but requires a Lot of capital and cash to really have the best opportunities, then i believe you could truly make revolutionary changes to a portfolio, no guarantees.

Of course. Now look. Everybody makes mistakes. Fortunately, right now, i'm still under the impression that i'm not making a mistake by sitting out the broader technology sector and most u.s stocks right now, we'll see i might expose myself to emerging markets or to alternative assets.

But in the meantime, i am being patient, because patience ends up being rewarded as hard as it is to be patient as hard as it is to - and i know that sounds ironic paper hand, stocks and diamond hand cash. I believe it's the right thing to do along with, of course, cash hedges anyway go to metcalvan.com cashflow if you're interested. That is a free sign up that you can sign up for, and you can learn more as soon as i have more information about this opportunity to potentially invest together. So that way, if we do have a market cycle shift from the top of the market to the bottom will already be ready to go.

That's what's very, very exciting to me. Second, i will no longer be doing market open and market closing live streams. If there are events such as a cpi data release, unemployment data release, federal reserve meetings right now, i plan to only stream those with course members. If you are not a course, member do remember that you get lifetime access and no matter what happens, i will always update my programs to make sure you get the best value possible out of them forever.

That doesn't mean that everything is perfect, but they come with one guarantee, and that is if i have new information, whether it's good information or bad information, a change of information or correction of information. I will provide that to you and i will always focus on providing more to you check out those programs on building your wealth via the link down below in the description. Next to the link to that cash flow sign up, you can use that coupon code. That expires on valentine's day and in the meantime, i wish you the best and i'll, be back.