So yesterday, elon musk said that he has a plan b, but he would not elaborate plan b in case the twitter proposal gets rejected by the board of directors. He wouldn't say what it is and a lot of people jumped into the conclusion that plan b is starting his own platform. I don't think that's the case. I have it right here.

I figured it out, and it's just genius, in its simplicity, he's actually playing chess against these guys and he's already five steps ahead. This is brilliant. You absolutely got ta see this. Let's get this video going! Okay, so, first of all, we know when elon absolutely decided.

He is buying twitter, it's not in april, it's not on march, it's not in february. In fact, it was in january january 2022 in fact january 31st. 2022. This is where elon decided he's buying twitter.

Now, of course, he had no duty to tell anybody and he didn't but retrospectively, because we can look at the form that he filed on april. We can see that, according to the form 13d he filed, he started amassing twitter shares on january 31st and he went up all the way to 9.1 percent just below 10, which is exactly where you want to be to avoid further regulation and reporting. So he bought that and he bought that in a very interesting manner. He got all the way to five percent, at which point he had to report.

He waited with the report. He bought 4.1 percent more and as a result of him waiting, he actually bought those four percent at a discount of about 170 million dollars, because people didn't know he was buying twitter shares. That's, of course, against the reporting requirements which i assume because of the quality of his lawyers he knew about, and he knew this is going to be. The cost of doing business he's going to get sued by the sec.

They'll settle he'll pay a fine, but he'll get a massive 170 million dollar discount, which is just a great piece of play here now this is just the beginning. Once he got to 9.1 percent, he knew that going above 9 going over to ten percent is going to require him to report that immediately. In fact, according to section 16 of the exchange act, you got literally 48 hours to report that you got two days now. Obviously, he doesn't want to do that immediately, so he wants to create a situation where this reporting actually doesn't cause the share price to spike.

So how does he do that? Well, first of all, a lot of people assume that him making an offer for 100 of twitter was an actual bonafide attempt by him to purchase the stock, but here's the thing he doesn't need a hundred percent of the stock. In fact, he knew this offer is not gon na get accepted by the twitter board of directors, because it's a delaware corporation and basically based on the buy laws of twitter. You have to have board approval before you even go to the shareholders and you ask for their approval and even then you need 67 percent of shareholders to approve, but basically he knew because the board knows he's gon na fire them all one by one: they're, not Going to accept his offer, so he made this offer to purchase at zero dollars, knowing them straight that the board is gon na, say no, no, no, we're not taking your offer now. Basically, what he wanted to do, and there's a really good video by my friend, sasha yanchen, on youtube, go check it out.

I'm gon na put the link in the description below explaining this beautiful play. Essentially, when he made the offer of 54.20, he created a ceiling. Basically, he stated the price at which he's gon na buy twitter. That meant that, as far as the price can climb, he can never go above 54.20, because this is the price at which he is supposedly gon na buy the company and take it private.

If you pay 57 dollars for the stock and he buys it off you at 54.20, that means you lost money right. So basically, this was a ploy for him to set the price at 54.20 and as long as this price is set, he can buy stocks in the free market at under fifty four dollars and twenty cents. Now his true goal here isn't to get to a hundred percent, because you don't need a hundred percent of a company to control the company. You need exactly fifty one percent of the company.

If you can get to 51. All he needs to do is get rid of the board which he can easily do, replace it with his own people and take over the company. He doesn't need a hundred percent the shares, but here's the problem, the float the public float is 700 million shares. The total outstanding shares of the company are 800 million.

That means that elon musk needs to get to 401 million shares of twitter to get 51 percent. Now, that's not going to be easy. He already got 71 million or 72 million based on his initial purchase, so that means he needs 330 million more shares. Now what happens if elon goes out and tries to buy these shares in the open market? This is going to spike the price like crazy.

The price is going to go up like thailand, it's going to go well. Obviously the price is going to skyrocket through the roof. Elon is definitely not interested buying twitter at 120 per share. There's absolutely nobody on earth who thinks that this is a reasonable price to pay for a company that makes five billion dollars in revenue per year.

Besides the point, why pay 120 per share when you can pay 45? That's the whole logic here so essentially there's a battle going on for the market price of the share between the board and elon. So the board knows they don't want elon because they don't want to get fired. Illa knows his offer, despite being very attractive, is not going to get accepted by the board and they're. Each trying to set a price elon tries to lock in the lower price, so he can buy shares in the free market.

The board starts to hike the price. Basically, trying to get it up, so elon pays more money to get more shares, essentially discouraging him from purchasing enough stock to gain control, and that is why all along ellen made sure he dropped. Some hints that he might, he might actually sell the existing stock if his offer is not accepted. He did this in the letter.

He did this in the offer. In fact, he actually insinuated that at the ted talk he had just yesterday, basically saying hey if they refuse i might sell, and if you do that, you create doubt you create risk which actually means that if he sells 10 of the stock or 9.1 percent, the Share price is going to plummet, so you introduce more risk into the stock shrinking the price. So basically, on the one hand we had elon trying to push the price down by saying, hey, i might sell. The price is 5420 max max max and if it doesn't get accepted, i might sell so.

The deal is at risk. On the other hand, the board made sure that all the main newspapers know that they're going to refuse this offer. They haven't officially refused yet, but they made it very clear by using anonymous sources and sending out certain shareholders. Basically saying this is not even close to the intrinsic value of the stock insinuating that this is a 70 stock at minimum, basically trying to set the price at 70, while elon is trying to lock it at 54..

Now we get to the interesting part now in his ted talk, he said he has plan b. This was meant to serve two purposes. Purpose number one is to create doubt that this deal might not go through, and that is exactly why, in his ted talk, elon was very cryptic, saying: hey. I got a plan b.

I got a plan b he's trying to introduce risk. In the same time, the board of directors of twitter, whose balls are shaking because they're terrified they're all gon na lose their jobs, are rushing to get the notice out there. That 5420 is not going to be enough to get the deal done to push the price upwards in the process. They actually rush and hire goldman sachs to be the company to be the bank.

That's gon na get them off the hook, saying hey we as independent advisors, we as bankers, we took a look at twitter and we can confirm that the board is 100 correct. The price is not good enough. The twitter is worth much much more. They have to have this piece of paper from a reputable place in order to defend themselves, because otherwise there's bound to be shareholders, who's going to sue the board of directors if they refuse this offer and the share price goes down.

Basically, there's going to be shareholders suing the board of directors for not doing their fiduciary duty. In that case, the board needs this piece of paper from goldman sachs, saying: hey. We just did it based on recommendation from goldman sachs, a very reputable place not going to agree on that not going to argue on that. But that's what they're going to say now check this out in their frenzy in their rush to get it out there.

They forgot to check the history of goldman sachs because if you actually go to pranks.com and you go to twitter, you're gon na find a very interesting piece of information. Goldman sachs actually has an analyst who's rated way up there in the top. One percent of analysts on tip rings a phenomenal analyst, i'm going to put it on the screen right now: wonderful analyst, from goldman sachs, with phenomenal results who actually gave twitter a price target of thirty dollars with a sale rating. He basically said: hey thirty dollars for twitter is too much an official goldman.

Sachs analyst said that thirty is too much and now twitter rushed to hire goldman sachs. To say that 54.20 is not enough. How are gon na gon na explain that, not so sure and when helen actually found hilon? This is a lawsuit waiting for you, guys he's trying to scare them and there's a reason. Why he's basically saying hey? This is not going to fly on the court of law when you get sued, people are going to pull up.

This tip ranks page and they're going to show you hey this paper you have from goldman sachs. You know it's kind of shaky, because their own analysts just said 30 is just too much right. There's the reason why elon put out this threat on twitter, the reason is he's trying to slow down the board. The board did not officially yet came out and said: hey we're not taking the offer so he's trying to slow them down.

When he said, hey, you better, be careful. They need to take more time in order to show that they deliberated they considered. They were really thorough about this. They cannot rush out the door and say hey: no, no, no, no so he's adding more pressure and more time while in the meanwhile in the meanwhile he's gon na go out there and try to acquire as many twitter stocks in the free market as he can At as low price as he can without reporting anything to anyone, that's the whole point here.

He needs 330 million shares at the lowest possible price without having to report it. Now. Here's the interesting part once he goes past 10 percent. He's gon na have to report it within two days.

Section 16 of the exchange act. Definitely states there's a two day requirement once you go above 10 percent and in that case don't be mistaken. Even if you use different companies different trusts, whatever there's constructive ownerships here, there's group ownerships once he goes beyond 10, whatever the structure he's going to use legally to do it he's going to have to report within two days, so he'll have two days to amass as Many shares, as he has now so far so far, he's been winning because look the trading closed for the week. Today's good friday right the price is 46 dollars.

The price was 45 46. When this whole thing started, it spiked up. It stopped at 52 just below his offer and it went down to 46., so it means that at least for now the market is much more on the we believe elon that he might not take this deal. Then we believe that this deal is going to settle for 60 70, like the board is trying to paint so so far.

Elon is winning the narrative battle, and that means that at least on monday and tuesday, he's gon na have an opportunity to buy stocks at around forty fifty dollars. Now the more price action we have on this. Obviously, the price is going to get pushed up, but as long as the board does not come out and say, hey we're not accepting this he's going to have it capped at 54.20. Now, when the board actually comes out and says, hey we're not taking the offer.

Officially, the ceiling gets unleashed and basically the price can go up as long as he reports it on time. Now all i'm going to say about it is that elon has a very interesting history with reporting things on time, because the previous reporting he needed to file about going about five percent was not filed on time. In fact, it was only filed when he was done: purchasing 9.1 percent, so elon, i'm just speculating here, might just go all out, buy a whole bunch of stock get to 20 30 40, whatever he needs to effectively control the company and then he's going to report. It knowing them straight he's going to pay a fine for doing that and basically considering it as a cost of doing business.

If somebody is the richest man on earth he's been proven not to be financially motivated and he's gone whole and determined about buying twitter. You think a fine from the sec is going to stop him, so he might just do that. He might just say screw it. Let's just buy everything report.

It late, pay the fine and get a hold of twitter and we'll deal with all the settlement of lawsuits. Once we're actually in control of twitter, he might but then again he might not. Who knows now the story here is that this battle is going to continue. The board is going to try to push the price up he's going to be trying to push the price down.

The thing is that history shows us that trying to push the price up and making hostile takeovers too expensive just gets people like carl icahn and several other corporate raiders to pay more, but they still get it done if they really want the company they'll get it Especially a guy who's, the richest wealthiest man on earth - and he has the capacity to create liquidity for this deal, make no mistakes about it. Twitter can only make it more expensive for him. They can only land a few punches, but they're still gon na get knocked out the board that is so.