One trillion dollars of profit a year, 114 million of profit per hour, and an estimated share price of six thousand dollars. Elon Musk Just said that. And the even crazy part is I Don't think he's nuts I Think he's being modest and in this video, I'll show you exactly why this comes from the newest biography of Elon Musk written by Walter Isaacson Now in case you haven't heard about Walter Isaacson Well I don't know which rock you've been living under. This guy did the biography for Steve Jobs for Albert Einstein and he's been shadowing Elon Musk for the past two years talking with him, his family, his friends, and absolute Legend and the biography is damn good I Highly recommend that not affiliated.

there's no link in my bio. just go get it. The crazy part is that a lot of people may misinterpret this which I don't want to happen. So I'm here to tell you he didn't put a timeline on this.

he didn't say when in my personal opinion opinion we're talking about 10 to 15 years. he isn't talking about tomorrow. So relax Now as it stands today, Tesla is generated about 80 to 90 billion dollars of revenues per year. Trailing 12 months is about 94 billion dollars.

Now currently, the gross profit of Tesla is about 20 billion dollars per year which means 50x profit from now and for the sixth biggest U.S public company in the world. That's a tall order. Now let's break this down. Let me show you why I Think he's being modest Tesla has the current business which is the automotive business which is doing fine.

and unlike all the haters and the Bears no, the margins are fine. Thank you for asking. The demand is fine. Thank you for asking.

I Mean there's not gonna be a demand problem, There's not gonna be a margin problem. The automotive business is doing just fine. But this isn't the next s-curve for the company and everybody knows that it's going to be a great business. So the next s-curve is going to come from either Energy Robotics AGI or FSD.

Now since AGI Robotics and Energy is a little bit further down the road, the closest Milestone is FSD full self-driving Currently we're talking about a market cap of 20 to 100 billion dollars. That's the total addressable market for the autonomous, full self-driving driver assist whatever you want to call it market right now in existence. If this is just the market, we're talking about a hundred billion dollars a year. The thing about this you have to understand is that nothing remains static in this world and the pace at which adoption of new technology happens has gotten really fast over the last 100 years.

When radio came out in 1920, it took America decades to adopt it. We then had the TV in 1940 which took about 10 years to 90 percent of American household to adopt. and then we had the smart cell phones in 2007 which took five years to get over 50 of ownership in the United States So Mass adoption of new technologies is getting faster and FSD is going to break all the records. I'm going to show exactly how and why and when.

The one thing we have to understand about the FSD Market the full self-driving Market is that beyond the fact, is going to be a massive market. and how massive is depending on who you ask? Well, you have Arc invest talking about 12 trillion dollars of market cap? Well, total addressable Market whatever you can call it and that's probably on the high end of things, but not out of the realm of possibility. A little bit more conservative views talk about two to three trillion dollars of total addressable Market pick where you want to be between 3 and 12, but this is definitely a lot of money. Now the other part about this Market which is absolutely insane is that unlike the automotive business, this one has insanely High margins because we're talking about SAS software as a service which means 80 gross margin.

And for those of you who didn't do basic economics classes, that means 80 cents of profit gross profit on the dollar. This does not exist in the automotive industry and this category the FSD is not going to generate a lot of money. It's going to generate a lot of profit because the margins are going to be insanely high. But that just kind of raises the next question.

which is who's going To win this I Mean it's great that we have this Market But I mean who's going to dominate? There's a lot of people who want in on this, obviously, right? So what gives us the certainty? the test is going to have a big chunk of this? Because the one thing I hate seeing and you see that a lot on shows like Shark Tank right? A person walks in and they're gonna be like, yeah, well. the dog food market is about one billion dollars. If we just grab 10 of it, we're gonna be in a hundred billion dollar company. Uh, shut the hell up.

That's the worst way of looking at things. and this is not what we're about to do here. but we will analyze the market in a little bit of a more nuanced way. So the first question you have to ask yourself is, how is the winner going to be decided in the FSD Autonomous driver Market Is it going to be many winners? Take some chunks of the market or is it gonna be one Winner Takes Everything.

or at least the vast majority of it now. I'll argue that with new technologies, we have more of the latter as Technologies progress and people want to have the best. It's very, very hard for multiple winners. Take multiple chunks and it's probably going to be the latter.

one company is going to beat out all the rest. So the question is who this company is going to be. There's a lot of formidable competitors in this market and Video is one. Nvidia has a platform called Hyperion which has been generating a lot of cash flow for the company, but not nearly as much as the data center business.

Nvidia Basically built a platform which other companies can use to develop full self-driving or autonomous driver or driver assistance whatever we're going to call it now. For the past year Nvidia generated 250 million dollars of this platform, which is very nice, but it generated 13 and a half billion dollars of revenues. So the main focus of Nvidia is the data center AI business. and that's a fact, but they are making massive progress on this field as well.

The problem is with Nvidia is that their clientele list, as impressive as it may sound, does not generate a lot of miles. They got Mercedes using it Volvo Hyundai Pulsar Jaguar Land Rover A bunch of other companies, but nobody has scale. Their biggest client Pony AI who's a startup in the autonomous taxi business generated 13 million miles so far in aggregate. So we're talking about their biggest client has 13 million miles.

The rest of them. they either don't have full self-driving or autonomous driving or very, very limited miles, so Nvidia isn't generated a lot of scale with respect to miles driven. They definitely have the skills, but not the scale of competing with Tesla and I'll show in a second Tesla's numbers. So if you're talking about scale, you have to look at Byd, right? Byd has massive scale.

They're the only company that actually giving Tesla and run for its money, at least in electric vehicles. But Byd themselves came out just five months ago and said literally I'm quoting full self driving is impossible So Byd are not playing this game. They don't think it can be done. They don't have anything in development that can do this.

In fact, they don't want it and they've themself said it. So Byd isn't even competing in this and for a good reason. their market share is the lower tier. I Want an electric vehicle too, but I want it much much cheaper.

So they're not gonna be competing with Tesla on quality of software on quality of the design on the Ux. UI Plus, they're not even self-admittedly competing in this market at all. On the other hand, we have Lucid who's always striving for the best, right? But unlike getting the best door handles, this is way way harder. especially when you're just selling 5 000 vehicles per year.

Where are your miles coming from a guy? There's not a lot of it. If you want to develop the best AI You have to have miles. You have to have data. So Nvidia isn't generating data.

Byd is definitely not generic data. And Lucid listen to this. Listen. I mean we've talked about it.

What about GM They got 34 million miles of data, which is a lot Massive, massive amounts of Miles definitely compared to Nvidia Byd and Lucid probably more than all three combined. But the problem with the Super Cruise I Don't like that name a lot, but it is what it is is that it only works on highways. You have to have a divided highway for it to work and only on pre-map road. So essentially, you need pre-mapping and highway miles only.

So GM is not even generating City miles right now. So 34 million miles strictly on the highway. Zero miles in cities. So they're definitely competing with Tesla.

What about Mobileye, the biggest competitor of Tesla And the guys who literally put out an article a few days ago on September 14th literally saying I'm not making this up I'm quoting that autonomous will never happen by neural networks end to end. and it's always going to be cold. Literally the opposite of what Elon is saying. And don't forget the fact that they really love Lidar.

Nobody comes close to test us. 105 50 million miles of full self-driving Even if we combine all of these mother lovers in one group, they're not even close. The craziest part is that Tesla generated 90 million miles 9-0 just a year ago and zero FSD miles in 2021. So in two years, Tesla generated 150 million miles and it's currently running at about a million miles daily.

and we're not even talking about Fsd12, which is a complete Game Changer because that's the first one that's actually going on neural networks and not specifically on heavy heavy coding. To me, it's clear that there's going to be one winner in this, and that winner is going to have to license FSD or autonomous or full set driving to the rest of the industry. Why do I say it will have to, Why not destroy the rest of the industry by not giving this? Well The main reason I think is going to come from Anti-Trust Law I Think the government in every single big country like the Us is going to force Tesla to do it the way they did it with supercharging. The infrastructure is going to be there, the software is going to be there, the anti-just authorities will mandate in my opinion Tesla to share this, but sharing.

this means that nobody else is ever going to be competing with Tesla And it means that Tesla is going to be generating a lot of money from other people's lack of ability to develop the software where they have 500 000 vehicles on the road with FSD Nobody comes close. We're talking about 1 million FSD miles every single day. 2 million cars sold in the last 12 months, 5 million cars on the road. Imagine what happens when Elon actually decides to release this and actually let a bigger chunk of the public use FSD and generate more miles and generate more revenues and more profits for Tesla Tesla already has a massive advantage over the absolute rest of the industry.

and the craziest part is that massive advantage is getting bigger. Tesla is literally miles ahead and it's running way faster than everybody else. How could you not see this mainstream media and their analysts? And that's not even talking about the fact that Tesla has another three big S curves in its eight pocket. I Don't know about an eight pocket means a back pocket.

Is that a Russian thing? I Swear just I don't know I Said eight pocket. We're talking about energy. Another massive s-curve We're talking about robotics. Another massive s-curve we're talking about AGI The general AI we're talking about the car business is going to be generally massive, silly amounts of Monopoly money.

So if we just focus on the FSD market and ignore cars Robotics and energy and AGI just look at FSD if Tesla manages to grab 50 of the FSD Market which currently I don't see who can grab the other 50. but let's give that out of 50 to somebody that 50 assuming on the low end of estimations of what the total addressable Market of this FSD will be, we're talking about a trillion dollar income per year for Tesla Just on that alone with 80 gross margin which this business will deliver, they're going to have 800 billion of profit every year Just from that loan. We'll have the car business without the energy business whether the AGI Business Without The robotics business. Well, none of this we're talking about FSD on Tesla vehicles on licensing to all other Oems and on Robo taxis look Tesla has hit a lot of crazy Milestones that people didn't think it can in the past.

It went from 14 billion dollars in revenues just five years ago to 94 billion in revenues in the last 12 months. That's a 7x in revenues. You you think they can't make another 12x job from here? I would say it's very probable, especially with FSD and then AGI in the Robotics and then the car's been the energy. Six thousand dollars per share for Tesla.

Definitely possible if you've got 10 to 15 years to wait. On the other hand, you can always buy Lucid I'll see you in the next video. Ah, listen.