Hey everyone meet kevin here. Tesla is rallying today it's up over six percent. At one point, it was over seven percent. It had crossed a thousand dollars slightly under a thousand dollars at the time of this recording.

But a lot of folks are very excited because they believe that elon musk is done selling his shares and they believe that he's done selling his shares because of an interview that elon musk did with the babylon b, which is a christian based, uh newspaper or well. More online news organization, uh now what's important about this uh is, i think, there's this potential. The stock is rallying over. This excitement that okay, perfect elon's done now's the time to enter the stock, but if all of a sudden elon starts selling shares again, we could potentially see a sharper reversal in the short term as folks who are waiting for elon to be done, pull out only To come back in hopefully later now, let me break down the speculation here, so this right here is the clip from the interview where folks are deducing that elon musk is done selling his shares.

It's very important to know going into me playing this. That elon musk said he would sell 10 of his steak, which is about 17 million shares. He has not done so. He sold about 12.9 million shares so he's getting there and yesterday sold about another 948 000.

So if we go 12.9 plus uh 9.5, let's just do basic little rounding here, really quick uh and that would be 900 900.5 so 0.95. Then then we divide that by the 17 that we are expecting elon musk had to have sold to get to his 10. Well, if we do that simple math, we know that elon musk is really only at about 81 to 82 percent of shares sold, and we know that elon musk is a very literal person. He says he's going to sell 10 he's going to sell 10.

So why are people saying that elon musk is done selling? Well this interview? Let's listen to this clip for about 30 seconds and we'll be right back to show you why elon musk is not done selling shares, including what elon said after the interview. So i sold enough stock to get to around ten percent, plus the option, exercise, stuff and uh. I very i try to be extremely literal um, so you don't generally need to read between lines. You can just read the lines, so that's it as the as the fattest guy here i i want to know.

What's when are you gon na make the candy company okay, so we're gon na pause there? I only wanted you to make sure that i wanted you to see that there was nothing else that was being said there. So elon musk is saying he's extremely and you could watch the interview to get the question of that babylon b. Elon musk. They got the interview, so elon musk said i sold shares and enough options uh to to satisfy his 10 percent.

This implies that he has already done so that he's he's finished and he believes he sold his 10, but listen closely. There's a very key word in what he said and it's very literal and uh. I very i try to be extremely lit here. We go hold on um, so i i sold enough stock to get to around 10 plus the option.

Exercise, stuff and plus the aux option, exercise stuff. Okay, so he originally sold a bunch of shares when he started this 10 process. But then you have the option exercise stuff. So here's how the option exercise stuff works.

Every time, elon musk executes his options and he exercises them. That is, he is agreeing to pay six dollars and 25 cents for a batch of 100 shares of tesla times. The many options that he has for tesla every time he does one of those batches he automatically sells about, and i'm totally rounding here, 950 000 shares. It's just automatic he's automatically doing this via a 10b51 plan.

This 10b51 plan allows you to sell even in blackout periods, because it's an automated action options get exercised, shares automatically sell. This is what happened yesterday morning. Remember yesterday morning in the stock and if you've watched the live streams, you know that uh yesterday elon musk or somebody we we know, we now know it was elon musk, but somebody was clearly dumping. Tesla shares early in the morning somewhere around 7 30.

In the morning and that led tesla to fall a good chunk, it fell to about 886. At its low point yesterday, i was fortunate to be able to watch these lines on these bars. I had tesla open while it was happening because that's what i do. I sit here all day long and i thought to myself: whoa it's getting ready to bounce off a purple line here, which is a sport line that i drew back in january uh and uh.

I went shopping, so i bought a bunch of shares here. Uh. I got it at 8.90, it went down to 886, so i couldn't be perfect about it and of course i sent an alert to everybody in the uh stocks and psychology of money group, but the point here is elon exercised options here and then automatically had his Substantial portion of shares sell every time he exercises an option. His shares, sell and now elon musk has gone on twitter and responded to the whole mars catalog omar over there great person he's been on the channel, absolutely encourage you follow at holmar's blog really really great, but take a look at this here.

This is the quote: elon musk said he quote: sold enough tesla stock to satisfy his 10 percent goal, but it misses the second part which is plus the option stuff and so elon musk replies to clarify this assumes completion of the 10 b sales. Now, if you jump on over, which is another person you should follow, if you jump on over to uh mr gary black and you go to uh any of his, i mean he's, got phenomenal insights and information here, uh on tesla, but go to his chart. His spreadsheet here look at this there. It is it's 934 000 shares uh and an additional 91 there.

So every time you get a 10b 51 sale where options are exercised, around 2.1 million options are exercised. You get a share. Sale of 934 091 shares every time, and this doesn't include yesterday's sales, which would bring you to about 81 82, and that means elon musk has another 19 to go, and so, since every time is moving the needle about five to six percent, i believe there are Still about four to five days that elon musk is going to be executing shares, uh or uh exercising options and therefore selling shares. So this is, in my opinion, something important to know.

I think we're still going to get more of these tesla dips we're getting closer to the end, but in my opinion, if you're looking to buy tesla stock, you want to look for these sorts of opportunities and a good trader cannotice this right away. It's a very strong increase in volume. You've got very sudden declines in the share price. I mean it's kind of obvious when the sales are going through relative to something much more moderate, like this kind of flattening here.

So look for those pain points. I encourage you use something like trading view and even consider setting an alert. You can set a lot of custom alerts on trading view. This isn't sponsored by tradingview, but something else we talk about in the courses and uh.

You can set very custom alerts to help alert you of something like this or you could do what i do and just keep the chart up all day long and live your life staring at a screen of well green and red bars going up and down now Keep in mind, according to gary black's spreadsheet, here elon musk seems to exercise these options about once per week, with the exception of november 15th and 16th, when he did essentially two share or two option exercises within uh within one period of time now elon has about Four to five of these left to go. He already exercised one set yesterday and we saw those sales yesterday. That means we should be good for the week of the 20th, the 24th there might be another sale between the 27th and the 30th, because the market's going. I believe the market closes on new year's eve, i'll have to double check that, but doesn't matter so much, then we have probably three to four more in january.

That could be the first week second week third week, fourth week. That means really. We could continue to see elon musk's selling pressure all the way through january. If he wants to push all of these taxes into 2021, which he may not want to, he would still be fulfilling his obligation, but then delaying taxes uh by potentially uh fulfilling these exercises.

In sales, the the first, you know four weeks of january, then uh. If you know, if you wanted to get it all done this month, i don't think he would want to exercise four to five more batches within the next week, because i think it could lead to tesla going down to like 800, like it'd, be so painful. There'd be so much selling pressure, so my guess is he's gon na we're gon na see another round of sales next week and we're gon na see four more three to four more in january and so we're gon na be living with elon musk selling. These shares, probably until my birthday, which is january 28th, then maybe we could get into the springtime joy of uh, of elon musk being done and that way he's also kind of buttered out exactly when he's paying all of his taxes a little bit carrying a little Bit over until essentially into 2023, when he'll owe those taxes, unless, of course, he'll be paying quarter lease, which is entirely possible as well that he'll pay quarter lease on these, though that is a question for his cpa.

All right. Thanks for watching and we'll see you the next time, hopefully when elon's done selling.