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Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the author’s opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional.
The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.
Well folks, the Cyber truck actually changes everything. I'm going to give you my new price target for Tesla today and I guarantee you it's going to blow your mind. The design of the Cybertruck is not conventional, it's unorthodox, and it is definitely not for everyone. I will accept that, but I will also claim that there's plenty of demand 2.6 seconds, 0 to 60 350 miles of range.
Look, there's 2 million pre-orders by people who think this truck is freaking cool. I Don't think right now Tesla has a demand problem for this truck. Of course things can change, but as it stands, there's plenty of demand, not enough capacity. Now there's a lot of chatter about the price.
Is this truck too expensive for the American Consumer Well, I don't think so. Look, the base price for this one is 61,000 Now, granted, we will not see this 61,000 model until 2025. So for the meantime, we're going to going to see the 80,000 mid tier and the 100,000 top tier. and I believe that the vast majority of Cyber TR sold will be the 880,000 mid tier.
And if you compare it to the pricing of the Silverado and the F-150 by Ford which are the two gold standards in this category, I think you'll find out they're not too far off. Allow me to explain, right? So the Silverado the one that actually people buy I'm not talking about the base level stuff, right? The average prices for the Silverado is between 60 and 880,000 the Ford F-150 50 to 70,000 I'm talking about the actual price people pay, not the usual. you know the Baseline they do for the ads. So if you're talking 60 to 80 or 50 to 70, right? And on top of it, you have 80 to 100.
Definitely more expensive. The Cyber truck is more expensive there's no doubt. But you have no gasoline cost despite the higher upfront cost, right? No maintenance cost. There's no oil changes, there's no engine.
There's very little maintenance to deal with. Now you do pay 20% higher UPF front. but you save so much money and gasoline and maintenance and you're getting better performance. 2.6 seconds, 350 milesi range.
not bad. Let me give you another fact, right. there's 2.7 million pickup trucks sold in the United States every single year. The top three selling vehicles in the United States are pickup trucks.
We're talking about a $200 billion Market in which Tesla has not played so far whatsoever. Now, how much of a bite can Tesla take from this Market it solely dependent on Tesla's capacity. The demand is there. At least the first two million are there.
So the real question is how fast can take? You know, can Tesla make these cars now I Don't think 2023, we're going to see any vehicles I think it's obvious 20 24 I believe Tesla can make anywhere from 30 to 50,000 vehicles. But I believe that the real ramp up will start in 2025 to 2027 in those three years 25, 26, 27 and I believe that by 2027. Tesla can reach 400,000 Cyber Trucks 2025. I Think we can see 100,000 The rampa for Tesla is not linear. Don't forget it. Go back and look at the Model 3. Go like, go back and look at the model Y. It's never linear, always starts slow, and then it spikes.
These guys know how to ramp up Vehicles especially one that was built for the sort of ramp up like the Cyber truck. So my base assumption is 400,000 vehicles in 2027. Now, if you do the numbers based on an average price of about $ 80,000 you're talking about $4 billion of income in 2024 alone. And that's without even considering the FSD.
Should we have FSD on these vehicles? That's a whole different line of Revenue which I have not even considered in 2027. If they hit 400,000 Vehicles, we're talking about $32 billion of extra income. That's literally the entire annual revenue of Nvidia just from cyber TRS in 2027. Again, not even talk about the FSD.
So Tessla is currently making hundred billion dollar annual revenues. That's 150% increase over the past 3 years. There are at 13 billion of Ibida, which is 200% increase over the past three years and I think the Cyber TR will restart will kick start the percentage of growth because yes, there is a deceleration in the profitability of Tesla and the Cyber truck once it hits ramp Poop is going to restart that process all over again. That's the new Escar for Tesla Not to mention the FSD and the other stuff that are coming.
But that's a whole different discussion. Now looking at the pricing of Tesla and the my new price Target, look glance at Nvidia for a second right. They're 25 price to sales 60 PE and they're I. Think what you would say is an industry leader right? So if you look at Tesla as another industry leader, we have eight price to sales.
So three and a half times cheaper than Nvidia if you look at price to sales. But even at PE Tesla is at 70 PE versus Nvidia 60p. So Tesla isn't trading at exuberant amounts. they're trading like a industry leader like they should like Invidia There's nothing wrong about that.
Now if you glance at my model here made on stock MVP The current price of Tesla based on the DCF Remember DCFS give you current price. not a five-year prediction, not a 10-year prediction. A current valuation of Tesla today based on what we know in the cybertruck is $600 That's my current price. This means in my model, Tesla is insanely undervalued.
And if you if you go even deeper and you look at our SCF model which gives you the fiveyear targets, my fiveyear target best case scenario is1 1985 which means almost $2,000 with the Cyber truck. Now the medium case is 1300 and the bare case is 600. Now obviously these are my models and you can build your own and there's nothing you need to learn about Finance or modeling this stock. MVP app solves everything for you.
All you have to do is plug in your assumptions for the company. You'll get your price. Target Now check it out Stock Dmv.com As far as Tesla goes, look, that's always going to be deniers, cynics, and people who missed the opportunity. and then they cry about it and they complain about how irrational the market is I Don't care I'm not a psychiatrist I Don't care about why they did it I only care about making money. so remember this is not Financial Advice: not telling you to buy Tesla Just the rambling of a mad man. But damn that cybert Trck looks good.
how many tsla stock do u owned?
People are overlooking the fact that nvidia's growth was based on dojos creation. I don't see anybody else pumping so much into nvidia's chips to build their own Grok, and dojo is now being built with in-house Chips.
I love the Cybertruck and I think price is very good for what it is .
stock-mvp, not stock-mcvp?
I think your production numbers for CT in 24 and 25 are way off too low
Thanks Tom. U the Best.
$400 is good enough for me
Whats range of cybertruck towing 5000 pounds at 10 degrees?
The ram 1500 outsells silverado
very conservative estimate but still would be great
I think/hope that the ramp up of the cybertruck will be much faster than Tom predicted.
Wait is he factoring robotaxi into the 5 year target or just cybertruck?
that matte black cybertruck is sick
Why are you comparing companies from two different sector? Tesla should be compare to likewise toyota or gm.
👍🏾
Tom I follow you I'm a member and I love your enthusiasm. And I don't think $2,000 for 5 years from now is unreasonable. But where do you get 30X that was in your thumbnail?
Nice to hear your thoughts about Tesla's future financials. I remember your upbeat thinking about Palantir in the past. How has that worked out for you?
What about the $7500 credit ? What about tax deductible 6000 pound cars ?
300K subscribers! Keep up the good work Tom.
My projection if the entire Tesla S 3 X Y CARS lineup is live by 2027: $2,884.00. About 10x, but then the curve gets steeper to 2033: $15,543.00.
I would like to hear from the real Americans that love trucks, using them for work everyday, hauling heavy loads etc. People that live in coastal towns might own the truck to show off.
They will sell all they can make but there is no margin built in. ELON said that himself. It will pull business to TESLA and the other manufacturers are going to suffer.
Went over to Rivian website after cyber truck price reveal. 90k for R1T??? You missed your chance Rivian, we've keeping our reservation
Best truck ever