Hello, hello, hello, welcome to the stream. Nobody is late. We just started right now. This second welcome to the stream a little quick impromptu stream.

Uh, there's big news coming out out of the wall street journal that i want to show you and i'm going to call it right now. I think this is pretty much a done deal now: twitter and elon, musk and i'll show in a second. Why? So? This just came out in the wall street journal and the the significance of this article is kind of more important than just the headline suggests and i'll show you why so, basically, according to this article, twitter, re-examines elon musk's bid may be more receptive to a deal. The two sides are meeting today to discuss takeover bid.

People familiar with the matter say by the way you don't meet anybody on sunday. Unless it's super super important and urgent. I mean think about it, they're meeting on the freaking sunday. So this is not why i'm excited about this.

I want to show a little bit more and then i'll i'll tell you why. I think that this is 100. Now a down deal so essentially they're saying here that twitter is re-examining the deal after ellen provided financing. Basically, twitter has been expected to rebuff the deal, which is what we've all been hearing for the past few days and when they sent out anonymous sources to explain why the deal is so bad for twitter and now they're, basically saying well, you know now we actually Are taking a fresh look at the offer and are more likely than before, to seek to negotiate? The situation is fast moving and it's still far from guaranteed twitter will do so and basically the idea is that you know they're meeting today to discuss this, but this is a done deal and i'll explain why.

So let me scroll back up and let me show you what i mean so basically, here's what just happened and unfortunately, mainstream media can't give you that, because i dated too stupid to figure it out or they're, too lazy and i'll explain to you what's actually going On here, so, let's go through the timeline, real quick, so elon buys shares of twitter without any of us. Knowing as of january 31st, i believe and he's buying up shares, buying up shares, buying up shares. None of us know nothing about it and then, in april he reports late that now he owns nine point one percent of the company. Now the report comes out.

The share price spikes, of course, as you would expect, and the next thing that happened - is that elon musk offered a seat on the board of directors of twitter. Now, at that point, that seat came with strings attached such as that he cannot go above 15 of ownership in the company. Essentially, this was supposed to be a sweet deal for him, get a seat at the table, get an opportunity to impact and have you heard by the company, but don't take over and don't fire all of us, because that's kind of what's going to happen. If he's going to take over now, elon initially seemed like he's going to take that offer, but as perak agarwal posted on twitter on the 11th hour, he basically said no, i'm not going to do that, and that was basically when we all knew that he's going To go balls deep into this and going to try to purchase the entire company and, of course that's exactly what happened a day or two later, he submitted an offer to the board of directors at 54.20.

Now, at this point, this offer basically was received with lukewarm feelings by the professional finance community, including you know my good friend, patrick boyle, who all said well, this isn't serious. I mean this is just an offer. We don't think he's actually going to do this. This is just elon being bored and whatever and a whole bunch of different narratives about how elon is not serious about it and, of course, to everybody's surprise, but the people who follow elon um.

He doesn't do things, you know just to be the clown. You know. So, basically, a few days later he posts and provides funding. He basically submits a form that specifies hey.

I have 46 billion dollars in funding. Some of it is more, you know secure than other, but i mean it's basically, it's as serious as it gets, so he provides a submission of of sufficient funding. I believe that happened on thursday, so just three days ago and throughout this whole process, what you kept hearing in the news and i'm going to talk about the comments in the in the stream in just a second i'm just going to go through my kind of Rant so, throughout this whole process, before he provided the funding, remember you kept hearing every single day. People would come out and say: hey yeah.

This is a bad offer. They sent out one of the shareholders, the five percent shareholding company, the saudi prince, i believe, or somebody or one of the saudis came out and said. Well, this is a bad offer and everywhere all you heard is reporters talking about how twitter board is going to reject this offer about how much it's awful, etc, etc, etc, and, in the same time, basically, what happened is that twitter enacted the poison pill now the Poison pill was enacted to basically uh pause, the whole situation and that's something i got ta credit. My friend, patrick boyle, who explained this on our previous stream two days ago, explaining how the poison pill isn't um an adversarial move.

It's not a fighting move. It's just designed to pause things so and i'll explain what i mean. So patrick really did a fine job explaining this. So i hope i'm doing this justice.

Essentially the way that poison pill works, that every time elon goes about 15. He gets dropped down. So let's say he has 100 stock: the entire company has 1 000 stock and he buys a hundred more so now he holds 200 out of one thousand. So at that point the poison pill gets triggered.

The company gives out 800 more shares or basically half the price to the existing shareholders, and now elon became just a holder of 200 stock out of a total of 1800 stock, so he just went from 20 to 11. He got dropped in the elevator and essentially the board can keep doing it again again again to discourage him forever, and this is also something that you explained to me that you know it's a transferable right. The shareholder doesn't have the liquidity to do. This can essentially sell his right to participate in this offer and it's not going to stop it from happening.

So, even if you're, not liquid, you can sell it and monetize it and whatever and i'm guessing a lot of people at this point would say well tom. You should know more about poison pills, i mean you shouldn't rely on patrick to explain this thing. To you, i mean the poison pill is something from the 80s. I mean this is like gordon gekko level.

I mean it's not like. Companies are poison, pilling, left and right. This doesn't happen. I mean it happens, maybe once or twice in the past 30 years.

It's not something that just you know happens. So it's not very, very common and shout out to pedro for explaining this. So, basically, so the board, basically uh paused the whole situation and said: hey we're waiting, we're waiting to see what happens and the reason they did. This is basically imagine you just got an offer right and somebody offered to buy your house from you and he just came up knocked on your door and says hey.

I want your house, i'm going to pay a million bucks for your house right. So the first thing you're going to do is going to say hold on a second you're, going to call your realtor you're going to find out. If there's any you know any other offers, you can get that are better. If you can maybe negotiate with this guy.

You know if we can offer you a better price, maybe it's just low balling you, maybe just the first offer you're, basically trying to slow down trying to figure out what the is going on, whether it's a good off or a bad offer. I mean you weren't. Even thinking about selling your house just a few minutes ago, right, you're not going to say yeah, let's shake on it right away right. So the board is using the poison pill to create that pause, because the poison police should create a situation where elon can't move and without actually talking to the board and and basically that's kind of just because if he moves on that, essentially they have to do It and then they delude themselves: they drop the share price.

He overpays massively. Nobody wants that. It's kind of a weapons of mass distraction. It's it's just mutual assured destruction.

Nobody wants to do that, so the poison pill is just there to prevent the from happening. So all along uh. Basically, what happened for the past few days is that twitter, hired goldman sachs and don't get me started on that goldman sachs and jp morgan to hunt for other deals. Basically, they pause the whole thing and they send out goldman sachs and jp morgan.

Go find us a deal, find us somebody who can outbid elon. Maybe we can get a better price and there will be potential bidders out there who would want twitter despite its shitty performance, such as you know, social media companies, google, facebook, amazon, they would love to get their hands on twitter, but the regulator in the us would Never allow that to happen because that would be essentially creating a monopoly, so the anti-trust issues will not allow any of these social media platforms to get a hold of twitter, so those that can buy twitter and would like to buy twitter at a very you know. Almost any price are not gon na get allowed by the ftc to buy that from regular perspective. It's just a monopoly, so it leaves us with companies who would be looking at twitter as a business venture right.

So you look at twitter as a business venture. You look well. This stock did like what fifteen percent in eight years their cash flow, is garbage. They can't monetize they're in a world of hurt, as far as pr nightmare day, censoring left and right people.

They kicked out donald trump. I don't know whether so, basically as an investment, i mean just looking at twitter from you know, accounting perspective free cash flow. I mean this is a really bad investment. In fact, patrick ball said this on their stream.

He said well for elon, it's a bad investment. Of course. That's assuming he's not gon na spacex, slash, tesla, the out of twitter and actually make it profitable. I mean - and this is a question i asked patrick on the stream and said - hey patrick - if i would have told you um after the paypal deal, that elon is gon na, invest all his money in a space rocket company.

What would you have said, and he admitted to his credit, i would have said it's a horrible deal. What if i in the same thing can be said about tesla, so spacex and tesla were also horrible deals when elon took them up and basically he obviously made a lot of money on both companies. So so, basically, what happened is that i'm assuming the twitter board went out there and sent out goldman sachs and jp morgan for the past few days to hunt for bids and i'm assuming they came back empty-handed because they basically i mean who would buy twitter at 43 billion dollars the company that what they bring in peanuts, they can't monetize it it's just it's it's a dumpster fire. So, basically, right now the board is facing a really tough decision.

So no other competitive bids out there inland is offering 43 billion, which is 20 above or more above the share price or whatever. It is above. The current share price and a really horrible market and we're looking at more interest rate hikes which will send the price of the stock down we're. Looking at a recession, we'll look at geopolitics, nightmare, potentially war supply chain issues, really a host of trouble.

That's coming towards the stock market, and now this guy is offering 20 premium and basically so what happens? Is that imagine you know how in shark tank mark cuban would go to the contestants and he would say hey. My offer is just there for the next 30 seconds. If you don't take this offer in the next 30 seconds, it's gone. So what happens in the negotiation right? The party you're trying to sell something to you.

You want to pressure them. You want to create a lack of time for them and they're trying to create time, so they can think clearly, so they can strategize. So there's a battle for time. So, while the board is basically saying hey, we need more time.

We need more time children, chill illness trying to put pressure on them, say you don't have any time. You don't have any time so today, and this is the crazy part, ellen tweeted, a cryptic tweet and in that tweet he said moving on and that's it. That's all he said moving on and he left that on twitter without any context for a couple of hours and of course, eventually he clarified this tweet by saying i'm talking about bill gates and my feud with bill gates, but for a few hours it was out There and people were wondering, is he talking about twitter? Is he talking about twitter, essentially what he did he basically checkmated the twitter board? He basically showed them hey, i might walk away, i might walk away. You don't have the time you think you have, because if i walk away finito, because if elon walks away, the board is going to get sued, so bad and they'll explain why? If elon walks away now, here's what's going to happen if he walks away from this deal.

Essentially the share price is going to you know if he sells the stock, and you know the share price is going to go down to 35 34. 32. I don't know, and in about i guess on may 4th the fed is going to announce anywhere from 50 to 75 basis points of more interest which is going to push the stock market even more down and there's. So basically, what's going to happen is that it's going to be a lot of angry shareholders, a lot of angry shareholders going to be basically saying hey.

We could have gotten 54.20 for our shares. You basically dragged your feet. The guy walked away from the deal, and now we have half of what he offered to us and they're all going to get sued, not to mention the reputational damage that each of these directors is going to have to carry on their back for the rest of Their life for screwing up such an easy. Basically, you know layup.

So essentially what happened? I believe his tweet moving on, even though he clarified it later that it had to do with bill gates, was intentional to put some pressure on them, because for those two hours, i'm sure every single board member of twitter was getting phone calls and text messages and Whatsapp messages, basically, what what's going on? Is it a movie moving on and they realized? Oh, we might lose this deal because we basically just round - and i think it's them saying - hey we're open to this deal. Let's meet today. Let's meet today not wait until monday. Let's meet today, that means they know that they still must be made, and it will happen and the only you know some of you may say: well, maybe elon pulls out of the deal and gives them a lower offer right now, because now they're, basically desperate they Don't have any other offers he might, but it's very unlikely because he already created a price and they relied on that price.

So they basically changed their position adversely in reliance of the 54 dollar price. And if he goes down, they might claim that they were damaged. So it's not likely he's going to lower his bid. So in that situation, where elon is unlikely to lower his bid and they're not seeing any other offers, it seems that it's going to go down the 54 range and it's going to get done.