In this bottom line report, you're going to see why my family is mad at me about what I said about Donald Trump You're going to learn about Insanity in California That might be redundant though. but we will also be talking about what the FED just said about rates and recession odds. an actual number? what's going on with yield curves? Consumers a little bit on Tesla and more as well as Donald Trump's New York Uh oh, what did he just get found liable of? Let's get into it. Quick reminder: pre-sale getting a price increase this Friday for those crash courses on building your wealth and knowledge and ability to make more money.

So go to meet Kevin.com to learn much more about those pre-sale crash courses. They're really good and very affordable. So someone in my family is now pissed off at me. They're pissed because the last video I made was one that suggested Donald Trump right now has a strong chance of actually becoming president again and they really don't like Donald Trump And therefore they believed and concluded that I must be a super Maga Republican and not the 5149 they thought I was.

In my opinion, this couldn't be further from the truth. I believe I am still 51.49 very much in the middle although sometimes I wonder in my 5149 or 49.51 but I believe I'm very much in the middle and the purpose of the I believe Donald Trump will win if there were an election held today is very simple right? And to conclude the other video and then tell you why this matters or to remind you of the old video, Donald Trump is leading all the other Republicans right now, there's no one close to touching Trump So right now it's really Trump V Biden and you've got an ABC News and MSNBC poll suggesting Trump is pulling nine points ahead of Biden. So literally, using left-leaning media sources, Donald Trump is beating Biden Right now, these are just today's facts and it's probably because Biden's fundraising and campaigning has been somewhat non-existent and I believe this is a problem I per personally believe Joe Biden should be very aggressive I believe Joe Biden And look me suggesting that Donald Trump is being aggressive right now and Biden isn't right now. he's not saying I'm all in on trouble to bow down to Donald Trump There could be no one better Is that what I'm saying? But what I am saying is Biden needs to get his act together.

So what I said in the last video was that bide needs to show some strength Whether it's physical, mental, some youth, some both. Maybe some path towards actually ending the war in Ukraine some path to negotiating with Congress and getting debt ceilings passed. Here's another one though. How about negotiating to lower taxes on the middle class? How about some priorities that all Americans care about lowering taxes on the middle class when people are suffering.

This is unfortunately, in contrast to what's actually happening. The impression is that the Biden Administration is sending more and more IRS Auditors out to audit individual Americans that during the Biden administrations people's Venmo transactions and resale of Taylor Swift tickets will now be subject to IRS audit That does not make you feel like taxes are being lowered. It makes you feel like taxes are being raised, the rains are getting pulled in, the screws are getting tightened on you. It feels like more government not less Donald Trump Can simply argue 2017-18 Decks Cutting Jobs Act I'll bring you 2.0 and lower taxes again.

and he did right now. Whether or not you like Donald Trump or not, there was a big tax overhaul that benefited a lot of Americans and all you have to do is go into a campaign going I actually did it. What'd you do you know? Yes, we've got the inflation reduction act which is not going to reduce inflation. We know that and that's not a dis on on a Biden it's just the fact of the matter.

it's the government. Spending is absolutely crazy. but it's Fantastic Four the chips industry via the chips Act 80 billion inflation Reduction act which has like 380 billion dollars towards like solar and energy uh which will probably end up being like 1.3 trillion dollars in spending according to Goldman Sachs because of the government Loosely Interpreting rules. this is a booned companies I invest in Big come on man, how can I be Batman how could I possibly be mad and Joe Biden for giving massive stimulus checks for some of my favorite companies that I think are going to do very well over the next five ten years.

even Intel is just milk and Manufacturing credits I mean look at this you've got. Uh I was talking to an end phase installer this morning. They're like did you know that not only is enface reaping in these credits like crazy, but Q Cell which manufactures solar panels in Germany is coming to Atlanta Georgia to grow the crystalline to make solar panels in America American-made German solar panels Yes, thanks to these tax acts, right? That's great, but it doesn't affect normal people. It's a benefit to the people who invest in those sort of stocks or hopefully will be in the long term.

maybe not in the near term. Yeah, but I mean you know you got to compare that. You got to compare that to some of this other stuff that's going on. Uh, you know, here's just another piece on that.

Supporting this was in the Uh Vegas Sun I was in Vegas Vegas Sun Supporting entrepreneurs can make Nevada a center for solar manufacturing. and basically it's like a democratic argument for like more more stimulus for solar and green and also fine. that's that's Biden's claim to fame. but Trump's like all lower tax for everyone.

It has a history of that. But not only that, here's here's the focus of Democrats right now. Straight out of the LA Times. And yes, this is a newspaper, is a physical piece of paper that has old news on it.

California Democrats Misfired. This is in the Capital Journal in the LA Times misfired by passing tax on guns and ammo. Legislature doubled the tax on firearms and ammunition sales, right because law-abiding citizens should have to pay twice the taxes on buying ammo. Because we want law-abiding citizens to practice with their firearms less.

We need a less well-trained populace, right? Because gun owners should be disincentivized from training. Stupid. Here's one. Sacramento All California Public Schools will now be required to provide gender-neutral bathrooms under a law signed by Gavinusum.

Well, so what they'll probably do is just carve out some existing bathrooms and go. All right. All all those are gender neutral and the boys are over there and the girls are over there. Whatever.

And you go pick your bathroom or whatever. So there's gonna be some re-labeling. But uh, otherwise you know who's going to build all these new bathrooms. Why are these the priorities? Okay I Get it.

Some people are gonna feel a little bit more comfortable in the bathroom now. All right? Okay, you know. But then this is Joe Biden's plan. Okay I I Don't get all my news from the newspaper.

This is just convenient right now. Okay L.A Times come on super left. but that's okay. Biden plans counter punch ahead of GOP debate You want to know what Biden's counter punches section over here that says the President has largely avoided holding campaign-style events.

Basically, he just goes to like private and Rich donor houses and holds little fundraiser events and then gets money from wealthy people and listens to their priorities and whatever. and he can kind of sit down and relax or whatever. that is not a way to come across as being a leader. I am trying not to piss my father-in-law off by making him feel like I'm a mega Trumper I'm trying to be clear that maybe if you really love Biden please send him a letter and tell him to start holding some events again.

and none of this circles on the ground covid social, distancing crap like we need people we need Americans they should be fighting for Americans But no, they're going to Rich Donors Houses. That's not what America wants to see from Biden They don't want to see him or think about him falling off a bike or tripping over sandbags or meeting Rich donors they want him talking to Americans Lower taxes on the middle class help the people struggling. but no, what are we going to do? We're going to focus on Hispanics and Latinos and I want to be clear here: I have nothing against anyone who is Latino I I don't I don't care where you're from I'm from Germany people call me crap all the time. Okay, I'm an immigrant.

It's fine, but what's this? Gavin Newsom Along with Joe Biden We're going to focus their media blitzes on Latino voters, a key group that helped elect Biden in 2020 and that he'll need again to win a second term in 2024. Planning a 25 million dollar ad campaign. the 30-second ad will be called LA Differenceia and it's about lowering costs to investing in Latino communities I mean I guess if if you're just targeting this to Latino areas but you know what Americans want to hear and that includes Latino Americans Okay, that straight up Americans again I don't care where the hell you're from I even think all these hyphenate what am I German American and did I just consider myself American like forget all this hyphenated bull crap. we're all freaking people.

But my point is why why Target 18 of America Because what? They vote on a two to one ratio for Democrats over Republicans Fine, but what does that do to everyone else? It once again makes you feel left behind. It makes you feel alienated. And that's another area where I personally believe the Republicans have an advantage. Where they're like, look, we're not here to play this race game.

We want all Americans to succeed people who are here legally and lawfully. and then this is where people are like, oh, you know, immigration look the immigration system is a disaster. I'm a big fan of more legal immigration. simplify the legal immigration.

process. I Would love to hire more people from anywhere around the world because there I have great connections with people around the world and they're great great people. I Would love to have employed here, but I can't because they don't have a special enough skill to get over him like this is bull crap and people like, oh, but then they're gonna come over here and they're going to take our jobs. Dude, if you can't out compete somebody who hasn't already been here and you gotta sharpen your own knife and your own skills Okay, like like okay.

work on your own skills if you're real. If you're really that worried that you're gonna lose your job to an immigrant who's coming over here with their own special set of skills, then you gotta work a little harder yourself. Okay, I'm just gonna be like. that's just my opinion.

but my point is I Personally don't believe that by sharing my opinion on problems of Joe Biden I'm all of a sudden a Maga Trumper and I Also don't believe that Trump does everything perfectly. He certainly does not. Nobody believes that there is no perfect, but it's almost like it's like a cult thing. You know it's like you say one bad thing about either side.

You say one bad thing about Trump Everybody hates you. You say one bad thing about Biden Everybody hates you and it's stupid. That's why nothing gets done. it's it's this.

It's like this. this brainwashingness of like well I'm only going to watch liberal tick tocks or I'm only going to watch gun Toten right lane and picked up. Just listen to perspectives from all sides and realize we're all just freaking Americans trying to do what's right for the country and the reality is probably all not that far apart. And now it's time for an interjection.

Here's Max with me at Sushi Well here he is looking at a Lego Magazine Here he is actually with me at Sushi and here he is in the LEGO store with me. He was not wanting to take a picture here and here he is building Legos with me because uh, we got to spend the weekend together and this little champ, my little Batman he's amazing. So shout out to Max Now speaking of immigrants, The Wall Street Journal actually suggests we should be thanking immigrants and the rise in Immigration as potentially increasing the chances of a soft Landing The reason for that is because of the expedited work permits that individuals are able to get thanks to You know, more recent Biden policies. What do we actually potentially have? Well, less inflation, less inflation? Because if you have more workers coming who are willing to fill jobs especially in retail and hospitality and things that typically skew more towards lower skilled immigrant style work, well, then you end up filling jobs where jobs need to be filled.

and then you get less wage inflation. Take a look at this foreign born share, which by the way, I'm foreign born. But anyway, foreign born share of the U.S Labor force? There it is. Look at that.

since 2006 through now, we have absolutely exploded. Well, I mean the graph is a little skewed. It looks like an explosion. It's really an increase of about three and a half percentage points on this chart.

You know, right from about 15 Point two-ish three-ish percent to Uh actually only about 18.0 percent. So a little less than three percent. It makes it look like a big deal. The chart though because it is a relative increase.

Uh, okay, cool. Here's another example of that foreign-born labor force participation rate. As you can see over here on the right, we've uh, blown through what we like to call the Uh resistance level. As you can see, we got rejected by this resistance level.

Uh, you know, back in the 2000s, before the 2014 era, 2017, 2018, 2019, going into Covet over there. and then we're over here on the right exceeding now this percentage of uh, foreign born, uh, labor force participation rate. but again, now a lot of enthusiasm into this idea that oh, look, we are actually thanks to foreign-born workers potentially seeing less inflation. Not only that, but you're seeing probably somewhere around 65 000 workers who are foreign born added to the jobs report every single month, helping keep wage growth stable.

Keep in mind wage growth is positive so it's not down, but it's more stable and we're not seeing that wage price spiral which could potentially lead to more tightening which could actually lead to more pain and More joblessness in total. So to some extent this is good. We're helping fill that void of Labor And there's still plenty of job openings, which is good. although I will say some people are suggesting that the number of job openings is actually a farce that businesses might say they have job openings, but their actual willingness to hire right now is substantially lower.

and this is leading the government, health care and education to get a larger share of new workers because those are sectors that are still hiring whereas everything else feels somewhat like yeah, Maybe we're kind of late cycle here, getting ready for a little recession doodle. Quick update on Househack. We have still beaten the record for how much money House Hack has raised compared to our last fund raise. We cannot wait to complete this fundraising round! We're taking care of so many of you who have questions who have been emailing us at IR Househack.com Remember, you can still invest and or this will probably be going away soon, but you could still invest for no fee using an ACH bank transfer credit card this is or even wire transfer at this point which is fantastic because well, it makes it really easy for you to invest.

So make sure you read the the offering circular at Househack.com This is a big deal for me. I'm really excited about raising money for House Hack I Really think we've got some amazing opportunities? Make sure to learn everything about what we're doing with my real estate startup at Househack.com By the way, the most common reasons that we're getting for people to invest and these are just sort of commentary that we're getting back from surveying. Number one most common reason is people can't afford to buy real estate themselves right now. so they're like, you know what? Kevin we're gonna trust that you can go invest, uh, and grow this real estate company and at least we'll have some kind of exposure to real estate which is similar to but brings up the second most common reason that we're getting which is diversification.

People are tired of kind of the crazy fluctuations of the stock market. They're like, you know what? let me put my money into something I feel comfortable with that's going to give me some diversification away from just stocks, bonds, gold, whatever. Now people are also in investing in their retirement accounts which they're really excited about that because some people are investing in their Roth or their 401s whatever. which is kind of cool because then you could potentially grow, uh, your your investment tax free knock on wood.

We've got lots of gains for you, but obviously we can't make any guarantees. Obviously there are always risks with startups, but I Personally believe nobody's going to try harder than me to make sure we do our absolute best with housewife. So very, very excited about that. And I hope to invite you to join us by going to Househack.com and learning more.

Oh man, here's the Federal Reserve again this time Neil Kashcari our favorite Dove turned Hawk Who says he was one of the 12 policy makers who forecast one more interest rate hike this year? Come on! Neil What do you think this is? an expiring coupon or something? Oh, which by the way is coming up on? Friday We're raising the price on the pre-sale for the 79 micro crash courses. They're actually going to have a lot more. A lot of value. They're probably not going to be my micro, but they're gonna have a lot of concise, really good value at many different topics.

Make sure you go to meet Kevin.com to see what all those topics are. But anyway. Neil Kashikari is suggesting that probably going to have to have one more rate hike if the economy stays strong. He is pitting a soft landing at a 60 chance.

so even though he's for one more hike, he's actually giving a soft Landing a greater chance than not. which is somewhat surprising. But okay. all right, fine, that's Neil Kashikari for him.

that did unfortunately lead stocks to some of a little bit after Neil was talking. But you know what? Not so much of a surprise. What? You're really going to give us one more raid hike? Okay, come on, come on, give it to me. Futures Markets not really expecting this is actually going to come to fruition and we're saying that tend to yield curve really flip-flop right now.

In other words, oh man yeah, this is this is whoo boy. it is exploding right now. In case you don't know, the the more the yield curve goes up in other words, uninverts, the more pain you generally experience. And uh, let's just say last week was like the worst week in the stock market we've seen in, uh, quite a while.

Uh yeah. So that's leading a lot of people to say oh dear, maybe we just want to wait on the sidelines. Of course it's usually those fearful people who don't ever end up getting back in, and because they never get back in because they just keep waiting for a new opportunity to just sit out and miss a lot of money. They're the ones who generally sell like close to bottoms and and yeah, it's just a mess.

But it's really incredible because all this stuff is apparently lowering inflation expectations which is also good. They're finally dropping off a cliff again, which is what the FED wanted. Remember going into the FED meeting. What did me Kevin say yeah I don't think it's that hard I'm like I Literally said folks, the break-evens are going in the wrong directions so they're going to have to talk dirty to us.

And it's not the dirty talk that we like, it's just it is what it is. So if you're like, oh, why are the stocks I'm investing in down? It's not you. It's systemic. It's everything it's Anyway, look at some of these charts that we've got here: I Want to show you these: uh oh oh.

this is actually the uh, the reminder that we have, uh, prices going up on the 29th and it's actually the new verse Pro Crash Course section: Look at that. uh how to buy your first house How to boost your productivity How to negotiate real estate in the winter of 2023? That's gonna include like January of next year renovate real estate How to retire early. How to fundamentally analyze stocks? How to never pay taxes in America These are pretty Popular By the way, look at this folks. That is the definition of the steepening of the yield curve.

It is now almost as high as we were during the banking crisis. Look at that. It's going straight up over here. And why is that happening? Because of expectations of inflation going down? This is the five year five year Break Even Which is the forward.

Basically, what do we think inflation is going to be be in five years from now and then the five years forward. I Know it's a little confusing. Still elevated though. right? Still at the elevated level here relative to where we had been in the prior uh, part of the year.

But you know which one's moving a lot. It's this one. the straight up five-year break even. Look at that, we are at pretty much a low and I'd say we're kind of at the resistance level that we saw there in May.

But this is nice. A nice plummet off of some of that heat that we had there on break even inflation expectations. That's what the Fed want it. So they're actually accomplishing with words exactly what they wanted.

One of the reasons inflation break evens were skyrocketing was because of oil prices. And wow. Now something else that is interesting is the billionaire chairman of the Evergrand group in China is now under police surveillance. gotta turn over his like passports and IDs can't leave, Can't have meetings or communicate with people without prior approval.

By China's criminal procedural law, it is. It's intense. Okay, you don't want to be under this kind of surveillance and usually this only happens if somebody's about to get charged and basically the criminal justice system. So in other words, was there fraud at Evergrand? Was there a deceit? Are they looking for a Fall Guy which isn't horribly uncommon in China That, uh, you know, China basically needs to have an excuse for why you know their stimulus led to aggressive expansion and the taking on of way too much Leverage to build more properties that were low quality properties.

but because they were built via speed and people were able to buy those properties before they're finished being built Chinese Developers are morally incentive. Well, like there's a moral hazard of an incentive to basically build low quality crap, sell it, and keep going while borrowing. But rather than China wanting the truth to be known, it's much easier to go. They were a fraud, he's our guy and then you move on.

Now earlier we talked about Joe Biden I Guess now we may as well talk about a Danny T Donnie T Apparently now being found liable for fraud, exaggerating his net worth by billions of dollars. This all goes back to the Uh New York Uh Attorney General uh Leticia James who filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump Basically a year ago making progress in her case against Donald Trump the judge basically said, yeah, it does look like Donald Trump inflated his net worth and now we're going to go ahead and keep bench trialing. which is when a judge evaluates the merits of a case rather than having a jury trial. But anyway, the bench trial being conducted by the judge is Uh, is proceeding onto other claims now Uh, including falsifying business records and false financial statements.

But basically this valuation issue comes from this idea that long and short Donald Trump buys a building, then puts the Donald Trump brand on it. and the argument is that because of the Donald Trump brand, the property can maybe generate potentially a lot more cash flow. and thanks to multiplier analysis which we use in real estate, it suggests hey, well, this Trump property is now worth more, maybe in some cases substantially more. Maybe a 300 million dollar building is now deemed to be worth 500 million dollars and then that helps you prop up your net worth so you can go do other deals right now.

Whether or not that's true is obviously being evaluated in courts right now and what problems there might be with, that is all that's being evaluated Donald Trump of course calls the judge a Trump hater and suggests it's very unfair I call for help from the highest courts in New York State or the federal system to intercede. There are also some sanctions being Uh, basically fines coming against Uh Donald Trump as well as Trump Jr Eric Trump the Trump organization, his CFO, and uh, his lawyers ordering them to pay 7 500 each for repeat advancing false legal theories. There is another allegation that Donald Trump exaggerated the size of his Penthouse in New York multiplying its square footage by about three, and the judge went as far as saying a discrepancy of this order of magnitude, especially by a real estate developer, can only be considered fraud just so you could see a couple juicy parts of it. Look at this.

Then the defendants, basically Donald Trump essentially argue that the value of their real estate is inherently subjective. that because internal brand valuations are in the eye of the beholder here, Donald Trump they cannot be overvalued. Defendants argue that no bank or underwriter would have reasonably been materially misled by the alleged or alleged misstatements or omissions in the financial documents or other information made available to their counterparties, because no sophisticated company or counterparty would have considered those financial statements or other information alone as material to extend credit under. So basically, it's it's making this argument that, like, hey, like, come on, you can't only rely on my opinion of what the values of my properties are, because of course, beauty is an eye of the beholder.

And uh, I happen to think my Trump properties are quite beautiful. Right on top of that, the judge just didn't go for this idea that there is a need to prove there was some sort of uh, loss incurred by the banks by lending to Donald Trump. Of course, Leticia James suggests, well, it's not fair because maybe like the Postal office uh, that was sold to Donald Trump would have been sold to somebody else instead of Donald Trump because Donald Trump over inflated his clout, he potentially got deals he shouldn't have gotten, therefore experienced unrest unjust enrichment. just a little bit more color on what here is going on at the same time.

U.S Consumer confidence Dives to four months low as home sales also tumble this Uh, just out from Reuters Weighed down by persistent worries about higher prices and fears of recession. No kidding. I Mean this is why I Think it's politically important to uh, really address some of the pain that's going on out there. Consumer confidence index declines.

Uh, were across all age groups and most pronounced with annual incomes of fifty thousand dollars or more. Thought this was quite interesting. 50k or more. Inflation is slowing, but prices are still very, very high.

This idea about current prices is very frequently missed. Uh. as just because inflation returns to zero doesn't mean that current prices aren't high. but we already know this of course.

Uh, student loan repayments begin here in October And here's that: Consumer confidence past versus present. I Always kind of like comparing these here. expectations you could see ER you know pretty much in those uh 2010 11 12-ish doldrums. Whereas Uh current conditions are still somewhat elevated.

regarding Tesla There's some kind of fear that European Regulators might come after Tesla for receiving certain Chinese subsidies. The same would be true for Byd and other Chinese manufacturers. Teslas Kind of in the EU crosshairs, but then again, Tesla's kind of been in the crosshairs of liberal governments for quite a while since pretty much when Elon Musk acquired Twitter it's where they started the process of that. It's also worth kind of noting which I Don't know if it's like depressing or exciting, but Tesla at 244 has basically been flat for two years because in September of 2021 we were also trading for right around 250 dollars.

Does this mean markets are totally ignoring all the progress that has been made over the last two years in full self-driving and with Optimus the potential for robo taxi the Cyber truck or was all that already priced in two years ago 's here I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations man, you have done so much People love you people! looked up to you financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take.