Hey guys, it's sasha. I know that a lot of you are sitting there. Looking at your investing portfolio in a mix of bewildered amazement and down, beats and stupor, your stocks are 50 down, or maybe even 60 or even 70 down and you're, not sure what you should do. The world of investing looks about as bad out there as it has ever done.

The war in ukraine has been going for over two weeks. Inflation that is already at forty year highs, is looking likely to set some very unwelcome records heading for well over ten percent. The us fed is about to start increasing rates, and the likelihood is that those rates will begin increasing, really quite fast as they try and chase that inflation. And while the newspapers are busy with other stuff, the next wave of covet seems to have arrived and this one might just be the biggest one.

Yet so yeah you are sitting there waiting for the market to turn around, but it all looks extremely bleak. So what should you do? Should you hold like russell, crowe and gladiator, because you know that the good times will come or should you sell, because we may well be staring down the double barrel, shotgun of recession and an out of control inflation? Should you follow warren buffett and get greedy when everyone else is massively fearful, or is this the time to hold the one asset that has been outperforming the majority of stocks over the last few months? The u.s dollar, the u.s dollar, might be losing value to the crazy inflation as well, but your growth stocks are losing a heck of a lot more value. So there is that i know exactly how you feel, because i am not immune to market corrections. I am not immune to inflation or a panic driven by war, and neither are my stocks.

I also have stocks in my portfolio that are 50 down or more. In fact, three of my six big positions are down 50 or more in the last four months, and i am in the same boat and i completely get how you might feel and if you're upset or if you're panicking. Just remember, that's. Okay, these feelings are absolutely normal, but do not make the mistake of letting those feelings, letting those emotions drive your investing decisions, because that is a very fast path to a very bad outcome.

The first point that is absolutely crucial to understand here before we get into the details is that the stock market does fall and it falls often if you cannot take a 50 drop in the value of your investments or if you need the money soon, you should Not be investing in the stock market, we often hear the statistics that tell us that the stock market returns on average about nine to ten percent per year. But what you might not know is that that average is actually very rare. It is very rare for the stock market to get anywhere near that 10 return in any one given year. The stock market tends to have really really good and really really bad years, that, on average, get 10 percent.

The stock market only ended the year with gains of between 5 and 15 11 times in the last 50 years, and it went over 20 13 times and went negative 12 times 13. If we include this year, so you're more likely to lose money or to get a ridiculously huge return than you are to get a 10 return per year from the stock market. So if you've only started investing in the last two years or thereabouts, which is probably a very large proportion of you, this will be first serious, proper downturn that you have experienced, but when your stocks have lost a giant chunk of their share price, you really have To remember a few critical things: first, company performance and future outlook is not measured by the company's share price. A company's performance is measured by its profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow statements in their quarterly reports.

The share price is just the price that people are prepared to pay for that level of performance at any one time, and it's driven by a whole host of things. Some of those things, in fact, a lot of those things - are sometimes nothing to do with the company at all things that affect the entire market like supply, chain issues or massive macroeconomic factors like inflation or sometimes completely irrelevant exogenous factors that sometimes have very little direct Or even indirect impact on the likely future of that company on the likely future of their performance like, for example, the war in ukraine. The share price will naturally oscillate around its fair value over time, and that doesn't mean that every company's share price will, on average, tend to be fairly priced. That isn't the case.

Some companies can be massively undervalued. Others can be massively overvalued for long periods of time, but let's say that you invested in a company last year and your analysis at that point in time indicated to you that the share price had a substantial potential upside, because, presumably that's the reason why you invested. If all the business optics are supporting the thesis on which you made that decision - and you do not think that the big fear in the market at the moment or the rationale, the reasons for that big fear - make a substantial change to that valuation. Then you really do not need to be concerned.

When i invest money, i don't know whenever the return might come. I have no idea which way the stock market will go or how long it will take me to collect my upside, how long it will take for the market to agree with my target share price. What i do know is that the volatility is part of the game. If the fundamentals of the business have not changed, the performance is continuing to look strong.

The truth is, i don't really care too much for what the short-term fluctuations in price will do. And yes, a few months is still short-term. Fiber's share price is down 64, since i increased my position substantially in august last year, and the share price graph looks pretty horrific. You definitely do not want to see look something looking like this for a company that you are invested in, but then revenue for fiverr grew by 43 in q4 last year, which absolutely smashed all expectations.

The quarterly cohorts continue showing incredible long-term performance, and my projections, based on this performance, remain fairly consistent. The company has a natural hedge against the inflation spiral, because fiverr's revenue is directly correlated to how much people on fiverr charge for their work. You may have companies that you invest in that have similar characteristics. The business is performing strongly, but the share price is tanking at the same time, especially if you're invested in early stage growth companies which are taking the brunt of this hit over the last few months.

If your valuation on risk assessment continues to show a significant upside in the stock - and you remain confident in the accuracy and risk profile of that assessment, then the only conclusion you can draw is that the share price is going through its natural fluctuations. The problem is that if you have invested in a company without having a strong data-driven price target without having something that you can defend, analytically, then you might be in trouble, because in that case there is every chance that the valuation was out of whack. When you invested in the first place - and it may well be possible, the share price never goes back up, it is possible, even if you did do the homework, because it could well be that the company does not perform as you expect. It could well be that you made mistakes in your assessments.

It could well be that things play out very differently to how you forecast it, but it is a whole lot, more probable that that will be the case. If you didn't do the homework in the first place, as companies are squeezing a recession, there is every chance that they scale down non-essential work through third parties and fiverr. The example i was just talking about can get absolutely smashed as a result, as cost of running the business typically front runner increases in wages. Five is aggressive growth strategy where they're reinvesting so much.

Every single quarter into growth that they're posting losses can get derailed extremely quickly through mounting costs during a time when fundraising is particularly difficult, especially because the share price is down. As the threat of recession looms on the horizon, it is really important to assess your portfolio for resistance and make any changes. You feel appropriate. There's a lot of things that you need resistance to at the moment.

You want your stocks to have some kind of resistance to inflation. You also want your stocks to be somewhat resistant to supply chain issues and to have elasticity in their ability to manage pricing and costs. You don't want your company to have huge debts, because the weight of increasing rates can be really punitive. You want to assess how a risk worsening scenario where disposable incomes drop, economic output drops and consumer and business confidence is low.

How that scenario will impact the demand for the products and services of the company that you are invested in? I know it's hard, but try your best to take off the roast tinted spectacles, because it's just too easy to stick your fingers in your ears and tell yourself it's all going to be okay, especially when you're in particular echo chambers, on twitter or wherever, where everyone Else confirms the exact same bias, and it's really important that you try to pick that up sooner rather than later. Tesla is the largest position in my portfolio, and it continues to be the largest and tesla has had an amazing run where demand has far outstripped supply and they've had phenomenal growth. Even today, the wait times for new orders are several months, but then again, tesla is expanding capacity very rapidly at the moment, with two huge new factories about to open an expansion of the two existing ones on the horizon as well. If tesla doubles production in the next 12 months and goes beyond that, will the demand still be higher than their ability to supply? Tesla has managed to overcome supply chain issues better than other car makers in the last two years, but can they keep doing that or will the sanctions against russia all the implications in terms of raw material supply and the deeper overall supply chain crisis hit them a Lot harder in the next year will a big recession that really digs into people's disposable incomes and their understanding of financial certainty skewed the level of demand for expensive new vehicles.

There are a lot of factors out there to consider for any stock, and these are very serious questions that can have a very profound impact on the long-term performance of stocks, including tesla. If you do the analysis - and you determine that, you are satisfied that the headwinds are not strong enough to offset your outlook by enough to warrant a reduction in your position, then you should not sell. But if, after doing a bit of reflection and a bit of thinking, you realize that the risk has fundamentally changed and your outlook is no longer as positive, then you probably do need to reduce or get out of your positions. Remember that the 50 percent loss that you see is only on paper.

It is only a paper loss. The old saying goes that you only lose money when you sell, but not all stocks will rebound from this job. That much is a fact. Some companies will not survive a full-blown recession, full stop.

That is also a fact, and some companies are likely to be a lot more resilient than others. So don't make the mistake of painting everything with the same brush and applying the same exact logic to every investment? Not every company will come out of this looking the same and make sure that you make every investing decision based on numbers, data and analysis and do your very best, however hard it is to leave emotions and noise out as much as possible. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching.

I really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later.