Hey everyone we kevin here, one of the most hotly and anticipated reports is about to be live in about the next 50 seconds. It is the consumer price index or inflation report. It comes out uh. The expectation right now is for a month-over-month read of an inflationary boost of one point, two percent which annualizes to about fourteen point four percent, that is in excess of the point eight percent month over month, uh speed or annualized rate of inflation that we had last Month or month over month, inflation that weighed last month annualized to about nine 9.6, we're expecting that number to be 1.2.

The year-over-year figure that headline number that you're going to see on those newspapers is expected to be 8.4 and then probably the most critical number is the cpix food and energy number. This is similar to your core inflation figure. It is expected to come in at 0.5. Half of a percent exactly the same as the last month, which would mean the same rate of inflation as last month when we strip out food and energy, which obviously has gone to the moon because of the russia ukraine disaster.

So let's take a seat. Take a look at what we got, we are waiting for. The report live here uh. Obviously, a big miss here on cpi is gon na be bad for markets, so this is going to be up here any second, now we're looking for that month-over-month figure here.

Looking for under 1.2 - okay - here it is, it comes in at a match at 1.2 percent and uh wow x, food and energy. Actually, it's still not even up over here, i'm just getting it on the reader over here looks like we got a match at 1.2 percent of the month over month year over year was 8.5 slightly higher, but folks x, food and energy actually came in. I'm still not actually getting the feed coming through here on the bls website here, but we got the it on the tape here, uh, where the uh. This is incredible.

X, food and energy came in at point three percent. This is way better than i expected uh again still not actually getting it to show up here on the bls web. So there we go cpi there. We go.

Okay, here's the actual cpi release. So let's go ahead and get this and we'll go into the details of this. Give me one moment here. While i pull this up but uh, this is actually much better than expected to see that core coming in at 0.3 percent uh, that's pretty good uh, especially since i mean that's again stripping out food and energy.

Those are going to be the very volatile character. Uh categories and obviously the ones that have been skyrocketing because of the food pressures, the wheat pressures, the gasoline and oil pressures in uh in in or due to the russia ukraine disaster remember the way they measure cpi we're gon na have to look at this report To see housing in just a moment, remember how they look at cpi. Is they take sort of a weekly kind of measure of the volatile category? So if you have oil or natural gas or, let's just say gasoline, for your car in this case at a high or elevated level, they're going to take a snapshot three times a month and then they'll take an average of that. So let's say if a barrel of oil was 95 a 105 and a hundred, then then cpi would show oil at one hundred uh but again stripping out this uh to get the core stripping out food and energy.

We've actually got a really good report here, uh. So this is quite good news, so uh that month over month is absolutely what everybody's been looking at month over month. Coming again exactly as expected, our expectations 1.2. You could see that right here in march on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent of february.

We already knew that this number, the headline number did come in about 1 10 percent higher than expected. Not such a big deal, though, really the big winner right here again is this right here: the index for all items, less food and energy rose point three percent in march, following the half percent increase in the prime month. This actually means that core inflation is going down despite food and gas, going to the freaking moon. This right here could be all we need for a quarter basis, point or quarter interest rate hike rather than a 50 basis, point hike.

So that's a pretty big deal right here. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase with a broad set of other indices, also contributing including airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance. In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8 percent over the month. Look at that.

Finally, finally, that j pal inflationist transitory is actually starting to pull the index down. I would imagine, if you didn't, have this negative and used cars and trucks. You would have had a big big move up in that core there. So we'll look in just a moment at the tables, but that's that's really really incredible.

So here's an overview of the tables on this uh. This column right here, uh that i've just highlighted this is going to be your month over month, uh increase in those uh categories and then the outside over here is going to be your annual uh category here. So here you can see that energy is up 11. In a month, fuel oil 18 electricity is up 2.2.

This is in a month, but folks, look at this is actually incredible. Used cars and trucks down three point: eight percent new vehicles only up point: two percent commodities, less food and energy; actually down point four percent: this is actually really good, but look at this. You finally are starting to see this shelter inflation. Finally, push up a little bit here, still only sitting at a rate of five percent, which honestly is quite ridiculous.

We know that shelter is substantially lagging uh the housing market, but it's interesting because you've kind of got this thing going on with rents uh because of the way they measure owner's equivalence, rents and such but you've kind of got this thing going on where home prices Have really done this and the federal reserve just about a week and a half ago, came out and said we're starting to see signs of euphoria in the real estate market, where home prices are fundamentally escaping fundamental rents, where they should be, and so you have this. This difference over here and that is that escape of home prices from rents, so uh. If you can now get rents to potentially uh, you know, move up where home prices potentially move down a little bit. You can kind of get back to that that happy medium uh anyway.

So let's take a look more at this really really incredible. A transportation service is up seven point, seven percent here, probably having to do with uh driver shortages, we'll see if we can get into a little bit more details here, but uh. This is actually a very good report. I do want to take a very brief moment.

Just to see how the nasdaq is reacting to this, i have not looked yet, but i will tell you look at this folks uh. What what did i tell you? You know this is something that we've been talking about for a while here during this entire run. I've been saying be careful while this run happens. What was i saying? I drew this triangle right here.

I didn't move it on purpose. I drew this triangle because i said uh on march 23rd. This is when we drew the triangle said: don't be shocked that we end up getting some kind of draw down to that 23.6 fibonacci on the qqq folks. It ended up coming right.

Around april 1st we got a couple drops had a little green day there and boom uh. Look at this we're sitting right here, uh today, uh, you know right now. The qqq is actually moving up nicely we're up about 1.3 percent uh. That's look at that.

Oh, my gosh: let's go! That's really really good folks, that's really good! If you were looking to buy the dip uh. This right here is by far an amazing amazing buying signal. This is going to increase buying pressure. I do think that there was a huge lack of buying pressure going into the cpi report.

The fact that the cpi report is coming in strong, really good uh, like very, very, very excellent report. I don't like buying pre-market, but anyway we knew this retrace was coming. Uh we've been talking about it for weeks on the channel. If you uh, don't have the pleasure yet of being a course member make sure to use that coupon code kevin cyber linked down below and check out those programs on building your wealth and join me on those private live streams back from vacation.

So we're back uh to live streams which is fun uh and, of course, uh. This video is brought to you by stream yard. So if you're ever wondering how i do my live streams or how i could throw up uh comments, like think everybody has to thank you, because right now, uh used car prices helping tank inflation are actually uh a very good thing for uh for the market. So hopefully, uh you're invested and you're getting recouped for that.

So uh. Let's take a look at what else we got here. The food away from home index rose point three percent, smaller increase than in recent months. That's very good uh.

This is especially anything in food that indicates a smaller increase than in recent months. Come on. That is something to celebrate. That is very, very good.

The food at home index take a look at this. This is where you're getting hit folks. This is a sign that the restaurants are or hitting sort of a ceiling in terms of how quickly they can raise prices, whereas in the grocery stores they're like no we're going to charge you for the baguettes, what we need to charge you for the baguettes, so In other words, you're paying for that that wheat more because of what's happening in uh russia and ukraine and, of course, uh. You know other commodities straight out of um or popular from ukraine, uh the largest 12-month increase since the period in 1981.

The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs, increased 13 year-over-year 13.7 beef up 16, absolutely incredible, so uh. I want to see some more of the charts. Oh yeah! Look at this one. Here's another big one! The index for airline fares rose 10.7 in march.

This is actually a really good. In my opinion, sort of leading indicator of how consumers are behaving are consumers still spending money? This is something that we want to pay attention to, and the fact that air fares were able to rise 10.7 percent in a market. That is extremely competitive is a sign that consumers are still spending money. In fact, you have to look at the acquisition of a jetblue and spirit or the offer, by jetblue to acquire spirit not as jetblue trying to get into discounted airlines, but the fact that jetblue will do anything to buy freaking airplanes right now.

If you want to buy a plane right now, you're sitting in a queue waiting somewhere around 18 months for a brand new plane right now, potentially up to 24 months, unless of course you're purchasing from boeing, then they've got a bunch of inventory. But you know, boeing has other issues, and so that could be a sign that you've actually got jetblue indicating there's so much demand that we'll just buy a whole airline to to maybe even potentially destroy that spirit business model which i'm not sure who's really celebrating. Spirit's business model anyway, uh and uh. Nobody likes those small trade tables.

Okay, can't even put a freaking ipad on them without falling over uh, but anyway that'd be an opportunity for them to get the planes, and so that kind of reiterates what we're seeing uh here in the cpi report of airfares going up 10.7 percent in march. After rising 5.2 in february, household furnishings rose 1 over that month. That still blows my mind, the fact that people are still spending money on household furniture. Please frickin! Stop i mean you know what look if you're, not a viewer of the channel fine go go, buy more furniture, it's the stupidest investment, it's not even an investment.

It's the stupidest butter. You could spend your money on uh, but if it's dear rest of world stop buying freaking furniture, it's so dumb, it's such whatever. I think you all know what i mean fine. If people want to keep spending money on furniture and wasting money their problem, it actually helps us out to some degree, because that translates into better earnings right but come on.

Don't buy furniture. This kind of market right now save your money. This is the kind of market to save money index for motor vehicle insurance. Increased point: seven percent apparel rose point.

Six percent see that blows my mind as well, and i believe that apparel and i've mentioned this before uh companies like nike lulu and that those are companies where we're going to see the these. The initial signs of consumer pullbacks not so much on those more premium price products like apples or maybe teslas and such and that's because i think, you're going to hit that lower income. Demographic first with this style of inflation, because this inflation isn't really what's killing somebody who's, making. 150.

200. 250. 000. It's it's kicking the butt of the folks, making 30 40 uh.

You know: 50. 20. 000 right. Okay, medical care index rose point five percent in march index for physician services up 0.5.

That's a pretty decent increase there for physician services; uh, that's an annualized rate about six percent, but that's also in line with kind of the overall inflation that we're expecting right now index for new vehicles. Point two percent: we saw that the index for used cars. This was such a good drawdown right here. Remember this uh this kind of fall and used cars and trucks uh and we'll pull up the weightings, but i wan na say the cpi waiting for this is somewhere around seven or eight percent.

So it has a good substantial pull within a cpi to pull this down. Housing makes up about a third as well uh, okay index for all items. Less food and energy rose 6.5 percent over the past 12 months, good, okay, virtually all of its major components, rising over the span, sure uh. We know that every the inflation's everywhere, but uh boy, oh boy, i have to say much better than expected.

This could have been terrible and then we've got here: the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers cpiw that rose 9.4 a chain consumer price index for all consumers - 8.1. Okay. So this is giving you kind of an increase of of what various different workers might be facing in terms of inflation, and it's understandable that you're going to see more inflation amongst the lower income individuals. So i'm going to pull quickly here.

Some more of these tables from the cpi report, but this is this - is actually very, very good. I know that's it's hard to say that, like oh, my gosh, how could cpi and 8.5 coming in hotter than expected be a good thing, but it's really that month over month - and i said it before it even came out - that's exactly what the market was going To be looking at the market's jumping up and down on this right now, well, i think we've pretty much gone through this, i'm just looking. I don't know that we really need to go nuts into the real particular details. Here i mean we'll take a very quick uh jump through here we're gon na look at the seasonal adjustment, so the most far right column is what we're going to look at here and what i'm really going to look for.

Are big increases like we're going to look at rice, rice up 3.2 percent could be that substitute for wheat very interesting. That's a big move there on uh wheat, beef, 2.1, uncooked 2.4 on frankfurters, just see, if there's anything really that stands out here and anything that could give us clues for individuals, uh spending habits. Now, usually i like to get out of food food, i think, is quite complicated here i mean look at these insane increases here for energy right, so you know you know it is here these insane energy prices are here. That's why core stripping out that food and energy is such a big deal all items less food energy point three percent i'll tell you that number right there that made this market green and that could honestly set us off on a rally through uh through the beginning Of um next uh next month, when we have the fomc meeting.

In my opinion, this lowers the chance again of a 50 basis, point hike, apparel, 0.6, okay household equipment, all right. Let's see if we see anything here, major appliances, two point: eight percent there on the top right: it's interesting uh dishes and flatware 3.1. We got a few negatives popping up over here, not too many you've got men's shirts and sweaters coming at negative 0.7. That's kind of boring all right.

What do we got over here? Oh, that's, interesting: women's underwear, negative 2.4! Oh okay, all right! Let's people buying underwear, i guess boys and girls, footwear, negative 1.5 infants and toddler apparel negative 1.5. So you're getting some of these negative reads here: jewelry's all over the place, especially as a commodity used, cars and trucks, obviously huge one right there, multiple negatives over here, look at this you've got motor vehicle parts and equipments actually coming in negative point two percent: that's Great tires negative point: one percent vehicle accessories other than tires negative point: three percent. This is good. The more of these negatives.

We finally start seeing the better look at that tv is down 2.4 percent. Sorry, roku still don't understand why you're trying to get in the tv business dumbest thing i've ever seen, but anyway uh negative point: six percent for sporting goods uh. What do we got over here? Uh, recreational reading materials down two point: nine percent of newspapers and bags down three point: 3.9: a lot: a lot of negatives here, where we haven't previously been seeing negatives either, which you could see in the prior months. A smartphone is down 4.2 percent.

Wonder if that's going to be a little bit of a tell, therefore apple whiskey down about 0.8, but that just offsets last month, hmm, let's see here 3.7 for other lodging. Oh yeah! This is always interesting right, shelter, 0.5, 3.3 for lodging away from home holy smokes. Other lodging away from home hotels and motels 3.7. That's big! That's actually a really big increase there, uh and uh.

That's that again is a sign. The consumer is still spending money, uh, okay, that's what the only thing that will prevent us from going into a recession. Folks is the consumer spending continuing to spend money here and what we actually got in this report here is inflation going down core wise, great news, great miss on core inflation? I mean very, very excited about that: uh and the consumers still spending they're spending on traveling they're they're spending on airfare they're spending on uh hotels and motels they're spending on experiences uh, but but they're not spending on used cars anymore and that's dragging the index down Which is absolutely phenomenal, car and truck? Look at that folks holy smokes, car and truck rental up 11.7 percent uh. Oh my gosh, again, a sign of people just spending money because they're going out - and this is this - is recent data here.

This is some of the first insight we're getting here into uh consumer spending for this next earnings season here, although you have a decline over here at admissions to sporting events of 5.9. That's that's quite interesting. I i wonder why. Maybe it's just like a seasonal thing! There but then again that is the adjusted sector, so that's odd apparel services other than laundry and dry cleaning 3.8 financial services.

2. Quite interesting, i mean look fascinating report to me very very happy about this. It's no surprise to me that, as the market is digesting this, it continues to digest this positively. This is phenomenal news again, if you're looking for you know any opportunity to buy the dip.

I think this is it uh, if you're looking to uh, to take advantage of the best price that we have on the programs on building your wealth. You can do that by that coupon code linked down below this video is brought to you by streamyard, of course, and uh folks, congratulations. This is a great report if you're in the market uh congrats, this is excellent. Excellent for the federal reserve as well.

So, thank you so much for being here. I really appreciate it. Uh and uh opsar here says this is disastrous, really uh, it's actually uh. It's it's uh! It is disastrous, but it is better than expected.

So it's less disastrous than expected, which in this market is good news. Congratulations and we'll see in the next one. Bye.