So then uh, we chat a little bit. uh, behind the scenes. Now we're live. Uh, obviously we're not going to start with the Michigan stuff we talked about offline.

the despite how important the Big 10 football for us, it's not the main event right now. in the for the rest of the world, the rest of the normal people who are not big 10 Fanatics talk to me a little bit about the Cyber truck event that's coming up tomorrow, which is a huge deal. I think it's historical I mean my opin you look, this is four years in the Me and you I think look the reason it's so important. It's important to show from a category perspective that Tesla could be successful here.

you know, building out on the Cyber truck side. Look, obviously it's going to be difficult to produce its scale. You won't really get there till 2025. Yeah, but it's important because the thing is like you look at like GM's call today like Mary they kind of like pull back a little like relative to Cruz and just the broader EV strategy Tesla is doubling down y So I think that's that's important too many people get caught up with.

Okay, what's the units for next quarter? That's not the F The focus is this could be another growth Dage you're going 2 2425 it ju you don't know where ultimately Cyber Truck leads in terms of other vehicles. and I think it's very important from a spec and pricing. 60 80k 6060 5 would be a kind of Sweet Spot know as they come out. yeah I I said 55 but at 60 it's still going to be competitive and you'll get tax rebate.

Remember tax rebate? Yeah uh you think they'll sell all the massive uh amount of pre-orders they got for that truck? It's definitely be 40% It's probably 40% conversion that that's a million trucks 800 so would say like 800,000 900. it would probably be about conversion and when you think out for the next two three years and that's why Tom like okay, does this move the needle in 24? No yeah but our view of Tesla is always. you have to look out two three years. The question in my mind is you know we were watching Super B commercial with all the concept vehicles from from the big three and the the the Germans.

It seems to me that they went backwards and Tesla progressed. So the it seems do you feel like the Gap is getting wider between Tesla and the rest of them? Well look I think Byd right? Like you know they obvious come back. but when you look at what's happening on European within us broader EV I Think that's the important thing here. It's a little like fork in the road where the scale and scope are hard to produce right? and I mean we''ve seen that firsthand.

like Tasso Caribbean and this is important. It's important. It's also important. like just have a new vehicle because you go down the road sub 30k.

Do they eventually have like pseudo SUV come out like it's important that they do refresh. you know as a yeah overall vehicle launch. But you see I also agree with you Byd is the number the clear emerging number two. It's not the Europeans it's not the the big three.

no it's definitely people and seeing it firsthand in in you know in Asia and China I mean look what Byd has done is is super impressive and see I I guess where they're actually fully integrated right? Dan Yeah they make the whole thing and and they have some top tier engineers and what they've built there. But where I disagree is everyone's like a it's Byd or Tesla Okay, take a step back even if you go from like hyper hyper penetration to just strong penetration EVS Okay so you don't go to 40% of Autos you go to 20 y. Look where you are today like there's GNA be many winners in that one two trillion that's spent. Yeah it's not gonna be one company that's selling the entire Market yeah but that's why.

but Tom you know too like I think sometimes like that's my it's like disagree sometimes like on TW it's viewed as like oh you like that it's like no I can't like hamburgers and pizza well you cannot on Twitter Twitter I can't like Ros and Cabernet well that you can't on Twitter or X because uh there it's very binary. you either with us or you against us. but but I love it I Love the engagement lovers haters I love the dialogue right like it's like yeah I think it's like a super it's a super interesting time. just forget the stocks in terms of like disruptive Tech I mean when you think about what's happening in AI what's happening from The Godfather of AI Jensen what we saw with Microsoft You know even last week at open I like the names you coin, everybody has a name with you like the Godfather of AI look the messy of AI as we all know the messy of that on super strong, that messy of AI that but I think like but look I think more and more.

It's like even like when you look at pal like it's important like paler and I talk about it like the purest play AI story from a use case perspective and we've talked to dozens of Enterprise customers and it goes back to the whole like the haters that just paint these things because they haven't talked to customers like we've been at Paler. customer Comp we go to Microsoft Events we go to Cloud events I spend time in Asia you know two three times a year and I think that's why I always say like you can't call stocks just on spreadsheets from your 10th floor in park AV or wherever you guys see it and talk yeah, look as SW Thean who's one of my alltime grades and valuations. He always talks about uh, the fact that it's fundamentals and the story. Whenever somebody's over focus on one specific side, they miss out on the total valuation scope of the company.

Uh, talking about Paler. Which is that Messi of AI went like super viral. you're you're now associated with that with that nickname H So when you when you talked about it, the stock immediately jumped from $18 to $20 That was in July end of July So far, we're already at December Pretty much right, the stock is still at 20. So do you feel the fact that the uh, even though the hype around this kind of just kind of fizzled out now it's just an regular level of interest and the stock hasn't crash or pullback? Does it prove that to you that Paler is getting out of that retail hype Zone into more kind of a blue chip area? Well, I think institutional I Tell person institutional interest is growing like from and it and it goes back to like you know the way I am like I don't focus on a stock in next like few.

my my view of Paler is okay. two, three four, where is this going? You look at like AIP like you know just in terms of like where we are from a penetration perspective Enterprise it's it's just starting. Oh yeah, I Agree with that I Think people misunderstand Llms in general because because of Open Ai and the chat GPT ER People have a little bit of a misunderstanding how huge large language models AI is going to be and they they don't understand the I think the true potential of this. this is the new well you have to but you also but Tom that point you have to understand like okay take the amount of spend that's happening on Gpus from Nvidia yeah th% every year.

it's no just but just it starts off there. Yeah, then where are they going to get built in the hyperscale environment Microsoft Yeah AWS Google Look look what's happening on Co-pilot That's why Open AI was so important Golden Child Alman You're not going to have four members from a circus that ruin A90 billion company. Okay so now what's second third fourth derivative. You're seeing a this manga Paler.

Yep. snowflake You Could argue AMD on the chip side I Could argue like what could happen on like the Adobes the oracles the Sal more like it trickles down. it trickles down to the entire industry. It's the install based place right? like in terms of then they they penetrate yeah I I think a look you there's so you you touch on these points and I want to go the followup I have to decide which one I want to take you first so let's go first with the Uh with what you think about Paler AIP as far as kind of building the operating system for all these uh, large language models AI what do you think the potential of that can be in like I mean all I know is like when we talk to dozens and dozens of customers potential customers, they're not like no one is not calling them front and center to at least be significant in the Bake Off Andor number one.

So it goes back to like they they are from a scale From what my view in terms of how they're viewed within like CIO environment it's it's A+ So anyone that's looking at a large scale AI deployment, front, center and it just goes back to the whole like and I've talked about this eventually. How I see the whole thing playing out, it's like you're going to Value the government business with like a lower multiple. Then you're going to Value the Enterprise business next year as they scale and it's almost gonna be like a sum of the parts. Which is how I always view like you know whether it's Tesla of course with apple or Microsoft how eventually an AWS or an Amazon how it was going going to work.

That's my view. that's why I'm so bullish and pounder because my view is it's ultimately a sum of the parts how it's all going to play out. So I agree and I think that this is just a start. Uh, by the way, you mentioned the government business I Love the government business I Don't understand it but looking at the at the business from a money perspective that's an insurance policy.

If it's also reference customers it's reference customers too like you're not getting Enterprise if you don't have the reference C Now now from a street perspective like look you're never going to pay high multiable for government lumpy business subject to to budget cuts EXC things get delayed so you're always going to have like pay like a lower multiple for government deal because I could argue like for every dollar of government business the value maybe like 30% of that from an Enterprise or 20% would be the equivalent of one. and like when you start to like think about you mentioned the how did you call him gold gold Golden Boy Alman Golden Child gold look what the hell happened there What was that I mean that's look it just comes down to like. That's part of the the worries from a corporate governance. When you have some of these companies that basically strike gold, governance isn't in place.

Whether it becomes personal political in company doesn't matter. but bottom line is like you're not gonna have four kids at the little Thanksgiving table playing checkers ruin the dinner for the adults. That's why the Grandmaster Wizard Nadela put that to rest. Is he the biggest beneficiary of this graaf drinking Mimosa This weekend he's yeah, he collected all the he let them all create the mess and then he collected all the all the all the money from the floor.

Well the difference with them? It's like they thought they were going to back the grandmas CH the poker. the World Series of Poker but Nadela into a corner four steps ahead. Yeah yeah he's he's not the sort of guy that plays softball. he's a oh look, it's not the like.

if you talk about a company that plays super hard ball, it's Microsoft They've never. He's turned around. it's you're talking about. Harvard Business cases.

Yeah for decades to come. Look what Nadela did in Redman No No. I I his style is Ruth he's ruthless. He's a shark.

Um so I I Want to mention something that you biggy back off something you said earlier. um when we were talking about going back a little bit to to test before we move on. um we are already. You know we have short memories people have kind of of forgot.

but the UAW strike just uh just ended a few weeks ago with all the moving parts so quickly. So give me your biggest winners and biggest losers from the UAW strike and the way it ended well Biggest Loser and like actually it was one like CU you like I'm I'm positive bias and like GM right? So in other words like and I like Farley like I like what they're do. It was frustrating to watch because I felt like UAW is ultimately from a cost bur perspective. It was going to make them slow down the strategy and I think you saw you saw that today right? Like y this is kind of Gm4.

they're going to have to like put the breaks on a bit. So like when you look at the biggest losers, it's clearly GM Ford Stanis relative to the Ambitions they had in eeve. the biggest winners are foreign automakers. yeah Rivan Tesla nonunion and I I think it's just you're seeing.

you're seeing a clear like deliniation in terms of what's happened in the market. Well, that's what happens when the old school business meets new school business. Tesa just gives out employee stock options and then nobody wants to unionize. Very simple.

Look the union like it. It's one hand tied behind the back right? like in other words, like if you look at how it all played out, that's why the cost burden. even like for GM Cru they already had more cost, cost of goods and cost of salaries compared to Tesla massively before that. now they have more.

Tesla have managed to make millionaires on its assembly lines out of normal everyday people with employee stock options without the unions. I Don't know if the unions come out of this and people are saying well, we really need these. The UAW I think Tesla has proven it creates millionaires out of employees without the UW So I don't believe unions have Su had success at Tesla Rivan. well they tried I think they tried of course of course they'll try but it's a different in Detroit given the Legacy given the unions the tentacles the spider web.

So talking about Tesla I know you're famous Price: Target but uh, if you have to look like let's say 10 years forward, what is the potential of Tesla as a stock right? like uber bullish Target the biggest look 310 are PT the biggest X variable like if you're if you're super B and Kathy talks about this, it's can they figure out FSD because if FSD and what I'd view is like the AI piece yeah that's that's that's the Golden Goose like that's the key to that next. F You know that I mean like go C talks about Robo taxis and Ron Baron talked about it many times. but like what Baron and Kathy talk about and others? Yep, it's that's the that's the Golden Goose um yeah Ron Baron The way he described it in his mind is like FS Tesla wins FSD which is more likely than not given the circumstance Mhm. So if Tesla wins FSD I think the only stoppage to that is FSD is just literally impossible at level five.

But assuming it's possible I think Tesla will get it. There's no second place or third place. Nobody's even close byd is just not even trying as a statement way and obviously way yeah. but their their mileage is so inferior compared to Tesla they might So if Tesla so more likely than not they get it.

and if they get it, what Baron is saying is like look, this is going to be the operating system of every vehicle in the world. Eventually if they get it, if they get it first, they're going to. It's going to be cheaper to license this thing as an automaker than to build your own well from an Oem perspect because it's almost like if you think about the concept supercharger same problem no look I think with the supercharger like what happened with GM and Ford and Hyundai and everyone else you everyone's like oh, what, what's you doing for like this quarter next quar No, that's not the way I the way I view it is that it shows you're the only one that basically built it, others need it and that's essentially what they're doing on FSD y I Agree with that. Uh I Want to talk to a little bit about the for the time we have left.

Uh, you know we have seasons coming up the Christmas shopping coming up. Usually it's a very good time for retail. Good time for the Market What are you seeing from from what you're hearing from the street about what's going on? Like companies like Apple, they make the entire They They They double their annual revenues in Chist. So what's going to happen with the with this season? Do you think I mean we've talked like it's going to be and I think you saw coming out of cyber Monday black like it's bullish Street numbers you've seen them come up like better than expected.

That's why I believe you continue to see this rally into year end when you look at Apple in terms of iPhone 15 like despite all the doubters haters y like you haven't had, you haven't had Cuts in the supply chain. So what that indicates is that demand is pretty much what they expected and looking I think overall as we go into next year you're starting to now see investors that use the 22 play book errant in 23 maybe kind of like recalibrate and start to look at like okay what are the Technologies who are the winners? What am I You know what? am I willing to pay? you know relative valuation but look I just go back to like I believe we're in the the beginning of the next tech bll Market uh I want so there's I I pull up I Want to use the last 10 minutes we have for questions for my community. the prep vents. some you don't have to answer this but somebody one of my community ask if you if it's okay for him to name his first child the green Title Wave I think I give you the permission I know it's uh, you know and part and Tom like part of it is like it's one of those where I feel like there's so many investors where they have a certain like kind of like a you know I mean like they just look at things like no, this is how and I think what's starting to happen is whether it's Tesla paler Microsoft Apple mongod DB Zcall you know the um the LeBron and cyber security pal out.

though you're starting to now see maybe different views of them Phil is asking what do you think about Rivan's future and potential Look I mean the future is there. The the problem is is just scaling is going to be the issue for them I think they I think they've gotten past some pretty big boogies. you know obviously the capital r is. That was a big sort of gut punch I think to many invadors and you saw that they're going to be a Survivor like demand's there.

it's just they have to do it clean and communication needs to be tight. Yeah, that's been. that's been the biggest problem with Rivan. Rivan's almost like a kid.

where you're like okay, the Rapport card where's the teacher needs to speak with me part like you know I mean you're always waiting for the the bad news I Like them personally I think I like the management I like the the product I like the general trajectory of this I don't think it's a Tesla equivalent, but it's a very interesting company I think they were a victim of the initial hype. you know then what's I think they were a victim of the initial uh hype when they just got yeah, but they missed the first three three quarters out. So the point is like true. It's like if you looked up like the definition of sort of like coming out the box losing credibility yep, you would you'd have Rivan's ticker.

yeah, that that's 100% true. Uh, we have a question here from Mary asking what about the the old school uh players in the tech industry such as Meta or Amazon what are your position on these I think it's you're you're seeing massive grow. It goes back to like with with AI like from Meta they discovered gold in ter. Yeah and all Zuckerberg had to do is basically take the metaverse put in the Deep back of that closet.

shut the door Focus No that's essentially what happened right I mean yeah. like you look at that, you look what Amazon's doing. look at. you know if you look at their their conference in Vegas like it's all about Cloud AWS I Think Jazz is doing a great job there following the kind of lead of Microsoft I Think you're going to have significant m&a and I do think the narrative in 24 is going to be like okay, it's not just D7 you're starting to seeing a broadening out across Tech small midcap.

Yeah, look look I so I'm a simple guy if something is not broken I don't try to fix it Facebook used to be a cash machine. they stay the cash machine. What was broken that needed to be fixed I'm not really sure but uh yeah, there's always excuses right why he did it. but uh, the fact that he never mentioned it since kind of proves that he knows it was a it was A but it was relative to that time and I think I think it's important when companies they you look when the Del I'm just give an example like when Nadela came on bomber like his parting gift was like acquired Kea handset Nela comes in right away.

he's like this is a disaster. we're writing it down. it's over done. Yeah I think it's important managing teams that recognize it.

ripped the bandaid off and ended. Um, we have a question here from Darby Do you think that the FDC can put a real u a real tend I don't know why it says tend but I think they mean the uh delay the the growth of the big Tech push towards a market dominance? That's I think the talking about Lena Khan Here in the FTC the black eye after black eye after black ey I mean the point is like the FTC and Khan I mean they they've lost every battle and I think ultimately Big Tech is even more emboldened to do bigger deals. I think that's that. that's a narrative that that's going to have.

that's why I think Microsoft Activision was so important so it's very important across for for Big Tech and I think it's one where the um you know when you look what happened with FTC and con I think it start off as a big risk but it's ultimately resulted where now you're starting to seem more emboldened from an M&a Yeah uh, you have a question here that I've never heard before from Rob who is the next? Tesla I heard this question no but but but but I view it as like you'll never have. It's almost like you're not gonna have like a next like app or t right? It's like next Michael Jordan it's not gonna happen next. but I do believe like it's the next level of innovation that everyone's trying to figure out and I think that's why like things that you know Rivan's doing some of the European players you know Vin fast has done in Vietnam what they're trying to do I mean like look everyone's they're trying to replicate the strategy because of just how successful Tesla's got even go back to like tomorrow. There's not one individual within the Auto industry around the world that's not watching Cyber Truck tomorrow Everybody we've seen Tred this over the past three years failed I can give you names Lordstown lucid and Nicola everybody who tried this just SC like like look as some of my I've seen, you know 30 40 factories around the world like it's hard and expensive to produce Vehicles Yep um question from the YouTube audience before I did the community let's do some some from the YouTube audience so I can put it up on the screen here.

so Shinto is asking D Chinese talk look I mean I think like and Chinese stocks I think in my opinion overall are way oversold like that's my I think the big the biggest regulatory worries I think are mostly in the rearview mirror now. there's always a fear about what's going to come out Beijing I think the Baba situation because of the cloud spin. you know that was a huge disappointment y because I think the cloud spin-off was was something that was very important. But but I think overall I actually think China attack.

There's a lot of opportunities if you pick the right names, but that said, like you got to be you gota be careful in terms of obviously some of those names I stay away completely for one reason because I can't uh I can't quantify risk in China it's just too much unknowns between the bureaucracy, the political environment. Of course it's just so much risk that can't be Quantified like the way they canceled IPOs or but that's why but that but Tom that's why you've had more investors than maybe before they'd own China Attch. they own us. There's a huge shift.

huge money inlows yeah that have gone from China Attch to US tech. Uh I think that there's always been a a flight towards safety and uh, when you know when Chinese Tech It's the same with the US dollar Chinese Tech falters for for not their fault. By the way, all these companies were great before the Chinese government decided to intervene. Uh, that people just rushed to the US uh.

um. so one last question because we have one more minute left and then I'll ask you a prediction for the playoff. Ricardo Valdez I Don't know if it's related to Juan Valdez from the coffee is asking you if you're concerned of potential unemployment number coming in the first. uh on in the first of 2024.

Er When You see in the graph all major cities you see a curve moving up. So any but yeah, but I think Ultimately, look it just goes back to you'll see a tick up but you're still looking at a soft Landing right Like that that essentially Pillsbury Doughboy like soft Landing right. look at the GDP numbers dud. it goes back to like you know you look at Northman Trader any of the other ones.

it's like some of those you know great Twitter accounts foul. it's It's the beauty of the US economy. You can hike rates for 11 times in a row and get 5% annual. GDP no it's true and I want to my predictions um you know go blo Michigan uh I think you know they let's separate what we want because I know you you are the most uh uh Pro Michigan F State fan I've ever seen in my life.

so okay not what you want to happen what you think will happen football so give me your four the committee you which four my my four Michigan I think Washington beats Oregon oh twice in a year Okay so I do I I'm a huge bone Knicks fan probably win H but I think Washington yeah he Oregon just giv him panic I see I think Georgia because of the goat bers I do believe they beat b you think Florida State they t and I and and and my view is that like look I think Louisville could be Florida State and if that happens you know maybe a Tex it looks like a Texas probably gets in you go house can can get in there no no I think Texas or B would leap them I Ultimately think that in the national championship you have Georgia versus Michigan and that's look that's going to be like a that's gonna be a tough game but and then still tough. A year from now we got 12 team playoff. Oh yeah that's that's it. So wait so if that's the case so it's going to be Georgia in the finals obviously because number four nobody's gonna beat Georgia versus Michigan beating Washington That's a classic and that'll be a classic game I think Georgia is the heavy heavy favorites in that game.

they'll be heavy heavy favorites. but if you look at M look I think I think that's a that's a pick them I mean I know Michigan be Underdog But I do believe that you know that Michigan could win that game just given the nature of their team, that offensive line and obviously um you know some of the you I think some of the best DBS out there from your mouth to God's ears man thank you and I do believe I think Penn State peach bow potentially B Missouri beats him and I think you know look we go into a top five next year where you have Ohio you need a new coach Franklin isn't it? I Franklin's a great coach you have I'm y so look so by the way best defense in the NCAA NFL Quarterback you have a great team coming back next year. Yeah but and I think we we'll have a new offensive coordinator. Yeah so look thank you so much for everyone joining.

There's a thousand people in the chat so first of all uh go follow Dan on X he post some of the coolest stuff. uh give him some love again any good feedback bad feedback I usually don't you engage with everybody you block people I like Tom I like dialogue right? like it's like I I like hearing it and I respect that a lot. Then thank you so much for stopping byout, Have fun and enjoy Cyber Truck tomorrow! See.