Hey everyone meet kevin here. This is an important video to understand the details of before wednesday this week, whether you're a trader in stocks thinking about getting into the market or whatever this wednesday, which is a may 11 2022 starting at 4 00. We're going to get some really important data, so let's talk about it. The first thing we're going to get before cpi we're going to talk about that and expectations.

Uh is going to be an update on mortgage applications. That's going to be a pretty big deal to see what the difference is month over month and mortgage apps. We kind of expect this to be a big old minus, but we don't actually have a survey from economist. Yet i just want you to know that wednesday.

The 11th 4am we're gon na get some mortgage data. We kind of have a pretty good pulse at least finger on the pulse of the real estate market. It's it's uh. You know we're kind of already off the precipice on a little bit of a slide to the downside.

Okay, all right! More importantly, though cpi - let's talk about that so cpi, month over month last month, was the march data. So in april comes out the march data right. It lags a month. So the march data was a complete disaster because we got month-over-month cpi of 1.2 percent.

That's the equivalent of like 14.4 annualized in terms of a run rate of inflation, like how fast we're moving in terms of inflation. That was a complete disaster. I mean highest inflation in 40 years, everybody's freaking out because headline inflation was eight and a half percent uh for march again the measure came out in april. Well, the one blessing that we have last month was that core cpi, which was x, food and energy, only came in at six and a half which only came in at six and a half.

That's still really really bad right. Six and a half year over year, really high measure for core inflation, core inflation strips out the more volatile components which are like food and energy, the federal reserve who's. Obviously, driving this market does not care so much about food and energy because they realize they can't control uh these supply chain issues they can only affect demand, and food and energy costs are often supply shock issues. So when we strip those out, we get to sort of what's core like you know how much are doctor services going up or your dentist or your washing machine and uh? You know your car and things like that.

So that's part of more core computers, business services. So on and so forth, anywho the expectation for an annual rate of inflation that comes out at 5 30 a.m. Wednesday morning is six percent, that's a decline of a half percent, that's still very large uh, but uh. That's that's a much better core inflation number than what we had last month, uh well in march, coming out in april, which was six and a half so expecting that to be six percent, the a headline number, instead of being eight and a half or worse.

Getting worse to like nine percent nine and a half percent, that number is expected to come in at eight point: one percent: you should write these things down too. So when the numbers come out, you're like oh crap, how much did it miss by it's? Just like i don't know it's rarely perfect anyway, this one's pretty wild, listen to this cpi for the month over month figure. This is the estimate for month over month. This gives you sort of the speed we're going at.

It's not. You know giving us an annual estimate, it's just the speed we're going at within a month. The survey is calling for a 0.2 now, that's actually extremely low, because 0.2 times 12 to get that speed. Only gives us 2.4 that's a very low rate of inflation.

In fact, if we can get cpi coming in at 0.2, that's actually consistent with the federal reserve's belief that we want inflation to be around two two and a half percent right around there point two on a month-over-month basis is great. That's like that would be phenomenal because again that'd be about 2.4 uh. However, the only reason we would actually be seeing 0.2 is because we expect that food and energy costs are coming off their peak from march. So when we look at the core uh for cpi minus food and energy, you actually have a 0.4 survey, which is 4.8 percent still way better than all the other numbers we're seeing uh.

However, it is clearly lower than uh again what we've seen for the last. You know six to 12 months here, but it's higher than that point two percent, when you include that coming off a cliff of food and energy. So point four: is that's gon na probably be the most important number there. Are we going to get point four or not? So how does this affect the markets? Well, uh.

First of all, this uh release comes out just five days before the largest price increase ever on the programs on building your long-term wealth. So that's the real estate, property management, sales, youtube videos, uh stocks and the psychology of money. You name it because remember this is a big tip for you. This is the kind of market you want to be focusing on how much quantity do you have of the companies? You love, not what the price of them is come on.

This is an irrational insane market. Of course, we've done an irrational amount of money printing. So don't get me wrong, like i understand why it's happening, but still anywho. These are opportunities so cpi.

The expectation of a 0.4 month over month, read i'll, tell you where it gets ugly. If we get a read of .7 or higher we're gon na miss anything anybody's forecasting and point seven is like an annualized run rate of eight point, four percent, which is just as hot as march. If we got a point, seven marcus gon na be a poopy doopy. We miss on that headline number.

You know we end up. Instead of getting an 8.1 getting another 8.5 poopy doopy. These are things that are going to be leading to that 75. Bp height from the fed, which some members have said hey, you know we're not taking point 75 off the table.

Jerome powell saying you know it's not a consideration right now. Instead, we're just going to do 50, 50 50, which really, if you think about it, 150 uh and then uh a 75 and then 25 is really kind of like a 50, 50 50 and then 25 right. It's just like a disguise 75. anywho, so uh.

If we get a miss on that poor read right there to the upside we're gon na problem. However, if we get a miss to the downside and we get something like a month-over-month core read of honestly even a match 0.4, but we get something like a 0.2 on core or or a negative number on core minus food and energy. We had like negative 0.1 and then a point two on core month over month that, on top of a crystal clear path from the fed and indications that we're starting to see shipping price come down rail prices coming down forward expectations that shipping costs are coming down. Food commodities used cars off their peaks, lumber costs coming down all these things coming down and core cpi's starting to fall now for the last couple months.

Those are going to be really bullish indicators, so i'm hopeful now i realize i'm smoking a little bit of the opium right now, because you know i'm it. I'm gon na have some extra cash flow coming up in about four weeks, once a few more transactions close and if we're still at low prices, i'll, probably be a buyer until, of course, we we hit bottom move back up in the stock market, and then i Expect we'll have a later delayed low on real estate pricing uh, while, hopefully stocks are a little bit higher. So that way we can move from one to the other right they don't always align. This is a very important thing to remember.

Is you do not have to align a stock bottom with a real estate? Bottom, in fact, look back at 2008. The biggest pain in the stock market was really around september of 08, but you didn't actually get a bottom in the stock market until about february of 2009., the stock, the real estate market still had pricing declines for another two years. It wasn't really until the end of 2011, beginning of 2012 that we saw at least a decent uh increase in the uh in prices again to where it's like, oh wait. Are we hitting the bottom? Are we now reflecting up so keep those things in mind? Super important this person also really wants to try to hit me with the bubbles.

I think it's kind of funny and entertaining anyway check out the programs link down below and there's something very important that you have to remember about bubbles. Okay, here's the thing lauren went to the birthday party the other day and she got kicked out for blowing bubbles, and you know, and like everybody at the party was like what that, like, you know, you got, kicked out for blowing bubbles and you know it wasn't Until later, we got home with our family and people like, so so what was lauren doing again or like she's blowing bubbles and like what bubbles? The clown bubbles was. The clown.