What the he double hockey sticks is happening in the market, and how does it compare to the warnings that i gave yesterday on where to be careful in this market? Let's talk about that in addition to what is retail, doing, what are retail buyers doing right now? Are they capitulating? Is that why we're at the zero percent fibonacci? Let's talk about that, we'll talk about crypto and the biden administration, we'll also talk about a u-turn happening in ukraine, we'll reiterate and check in on how that fed u-turn is playing out, we'll look at fears in general and really see what's driving the market. In addition to checking out a brief overview of what i'm doing now, if you of course want specifics on exactly what i'm doing as i re-enter the market or yield farm right now, i'm farming about 10 to 14 yields on certain options. I'll briefly talk about those later, but if you want to know exactly why i'm making some of these moves or have questions about them, or you want to see the logic behind them. Why i'm making certain decisions based on the data that i see well check out? The stocks and psychology of money program link down below you get to talk with me in our private live streams every morning that the market opens up uh.

That is not weekends during market open days and use that coupon code, because the price of the programs does go up about every two to two and a half weeks because of a inflation and b me continuing to add lots of content so do check that out. Use that coupon code link down below and you get to join me and you get lifetime access to the programs all right. So well, let's talk first about what's happening, and then we especially got to talk about what retail is doing so right now we're once again hitting that zero percent fibonacci line on qqq we're actually a little bit above the zero percent fib line on the spy right Now, but i want to watch the qqq here, because now this is the third time we are revisiting the zero percent fib line. We revisited it once well.

We first visited it on january 24th, we broke below it on february 24th and broke below it again, uh on a march 8th, but we're back to that zero percent line. Why is this? Well? It's because we're starting to see some fear subside. Oil is no longer sitting at 128 to 130 dollars per barrel. No, we got the worst over.

With biden has banned russian oil, europe's not going to we've done virtually the worst we could. Now there is going to be some additional fear that comes when putin's decree comes out over the next couple days, where his cabinet has already been ordered to tell us exactly which raw materials he is going to ban for export to, let's say the united states as An example that's going to lead to some volatility and some commodities prices so be careful. I wouldn't necessarily go short commodities yet, but who knows, i might take some profits on commodities, but we'll talk about commodities in just a moment. What we want to look at, though, is just the overall data right now.

Oil down interest rates up the 10-2 has steepened lower odds now of that recession right and the five-year break, even which is the market's expectation of inflation, has finally plummeted. This morning now it's still at a record high, but we had an inflection point down, and this is a sign that we went a little bit too broad with fear. And, quite frankly, if we go just a week ago, the 10-2 at 27 basis points in oil. At 112 is still really freaking scary, but now that over the last few days we hit even scarier numbers, these don't seem as bad anymore.

So what are we seeing risk on and we're seeing moves into the same kind of crowded areas where we've been seeing moves, but we're also seeing some moves away from crowded commodities and energy trades, and this is literally what i warned yesterday when these commodities were at Peak as commodities were at peak yesterday, twice during our live stream and once in a video later in the day, i've warned that you want to be careful chasing the crowded commodity sectors because, as fear, u-turns they're going to fall quickly and i highly recommended setting a Trailing stop loss for these sorts of position. Now, i'm not recommending setting trailing stops for uncrowded trades. Tesla is actually not terribly much of a crowded trade right now so now, while i can't give you financial advice, because i don't know who you are or what all the details are of your financial portfolio and picture, i wouldn't be setting trailing, stop losses on tech When tech doesn't seem to be as crowded as it used to be right now, now that's changing a little bit and will continue to change as we get a reduction in fear. But let's be real just because we went from slightly below the zero percent fib line to the zero percent.

Fib line does not mean that fear is over yet, but let's take a look at and understand what retail is doing. So, first retail is not capitulating. Any more than what we're seeing those drag outs below under that zero percent fib line and the reason my opinion we're seeing that that drag down into some of these lower positions, especially really early in the morning, is because there are probably a lot of retail investors Who are getting liquidated since this week? Folks? On monday, the average retail portfolio went negative, that is, of all the people who have retail trading accounts. Likely many of you watching this included.

The average person's portfolio went negative. That means now they're losing their own hard-earned money, and that is usually when we see an increased likelihood of capitulation, because now people are losing the money they're actually working for rather than just paper gains that they had and had not realized. Yet losing paper gains is one thing losing money, you're working for that's when it really hurts now. Five days ago, in these last five days, despite this average retail portfolio going negative in the last five days, retail bought 7.1 billion dollars in u.s stocks, and that's because, even though the average investor is slightly negative right now, the average investor seems hopeful.

That drone powell is no longer going to u-turn, us paul, volckering us and sending us into a recession. Now the longer term trend could still be that we see more pain ahead of us just because we have these green day. Bumps doesn't mean that green is here to stay. We are clearly on a massive down trend and the question is: can we finally break this downtrend this again, the qqq with the fib lines removed and it looks a whole lot less supported? This is when, of course, if we continue to see these drawdowns, when maybe true capitulation could come, but generally true, capitulation really requires a lot of pain and big negative catalysts in the market and, right now, retail is not so worried about the catalyst that we have In fact, retail seems to be buying the dip relatively strongly now.

What's interesting is they're not buying the dip where they used to buy the dip they used to buy the dip almost only in technology, but right now only 25 percent of the dip buying is going into technology. It used to be closer to 50. Now, that's because 17 is going into energy 16 is going into consumer discretionary. This would be companies like, let's say etsy, for example, and eight percent is going into financials that energy trade following the coattails of warren buffett is really something that has picked up a lot of attention.

Unfortunately, occidental petroleum today, for example, is red. Now, i'm not going to judge anybody on a one day: movement that would be ridiculous, but we want to be careful. These energy trades, like xle, chevron, they're getting crowded. In fact, when i look at the retail biggest names traded, i'm shocked that chevron is the third biggest retail inflowing name and retail.

Just so, you know, does most of its buying and market open and market close here's. What retail's buying amd apple in this order? Amd apple chevron, neo, bank of america, occidental, petroleum, sofi, united airlines, microsoft, uber ford, tesla, facebook delta airlines, rivian app american airlines, jpmorgan and coke coca-cola in that order? Those are the biggest names that retail are buying, and so why? Why is retail so sanguine? Why is retail saying you know what this is our opportunity to go shopping? Well, it seems to be because fear is starting to subside in many different regions or parts of the market. I should say first crypto we've got the biden executive order this morning that basically just demands the government study the pros and cons of crypto regulation. In other words, it was a complete, nothing burger and while privacy coins are taking off a little bit, coins like z, cash and we're seeing monero go up.

You know nine and uh eleven and nine percent respectively in just the last 24 hours. I think that's mostly just speculation that people are going to go off exchange or go into privacy coins and, while going into privacy coins is speculation. It is true that people are going off exchange, but this can actually be a good thing for crypto prices, because as people go off exchange, it's a sign that they don't need to trade or want to trade and that it's usually a sign of more hoddling. So it's actually a good thing: we're seeing a substantial drop in the seven day average of accounts on exchange.

So it's a good thing for hodling good thing and it's in my opinion, why we're seeing ethereum and bitcoin and cardano move up in just the last 24 hours here, because again fear is subsiding. We got our report from the biden, administration and geopolitical fears, and other fears are starting to fall. I mean consider this zelinski right now is willing to consider compromises to end the fighting in ukraine. This is not something that we would have ever heard about two weeks ago.

Sure there were negotiations and discussions beforehand, but at no point other than the last, like 48 hours has zelinski come around and said you know what i am willing to forgo ever joining nato and that has now evolved into you know what i'm willing to consider complete Neutrality in ukraine putin's work, his atrocious and disastrous, and disgusting work, but still his work nonetheless is working. It is pushing zielinski to the point of softening his stance, which kind of has to because keith keeps getting shelled. We literally just had in marupo a children's hospital gets shelled, you've got hundreds of civilians dying, and this is unacceptable. Men, women and children are being separated from each other.

Families are being torn apart. I mean it's disgusting what's happening, but while zolensia doesn't want to ever consider any betrayal to ukrainians, he is considering a potential direct negotiation with putin to end the conflict, and this includes potential ukrainian neutrality. This is big. This is a big shift towards potentially the end of this disaster, which i hope and pray for every day, because this is terrible.

Now we've got some things that we've got to talk about in terms of implications for the federal reserve and inflation. This is very important, but of course, i've got to give a pitch to our sponsor today, and that sponsor today is me check out that link down below for metkevin.com series a if you want to take part in an investment with me once it's announced in about Two months, the first people who are going to be able to take part of that are going to be course, members they're going to get the offer to join this investment opportunity first, but the second group of people would be people who sign up for that list. So check out that list down below and then of course also check out the programs. Quite frankly, i don't know anybody else who actually keeps their programs updated.

I go in there and i try my best when there's new information to add new lectures, i'm regularly adding new content every single day and just the form and the fact that we're doing communicative live streams together. I'd love for you to join those ask me questions directly. Let's talk about your real estate deal, i don't even know people who actually have the experience in all real estate, real estate, investing stock, investing options, investing and crypto all of these things together. Now.

Look, i'm not all in on crypto, i'm not all in on real estate, i'm not all in on stocks. I consider myself a relatively balanced investor and i like to be methodical with what i do. I know some people are like. Oh, but kevin.

You flip-flopped in a day, not really i have you know. I spent a lot of time doing research and i spend most of my days researching and understanding exactly what's happening in the market and you know sometimes when it comes time to make a move. A move can happen quickly, but that doesn't mean that my research comes quickly. My research takes time and i love sharing that research with you, and so, if you want to be a part of that sort of process that evolution process join those live streams every morning, the market's open all right folks, let's now talk about what we've got going On with the federal reserve and cpi so and of course, fear so, let's put together a list of some of the fear things, because the fed and cpi really comes in this covingt was obviously a big fear for our markets.

Right come on who's, afraid of covett anymore. It's a big reduction of fear, kovid is falling, covered restrictions are plummeting, hopefully barring another variant. Cove is over knock on wood, okay, no more fouchy ouchies. Now war is a terrible thing, but zielinski is already weakening.

This doesn't mean that he's not the hero that he is. He should be doing this. He is being smart to do this. He knows that every day that goes on without trying to at least offer something to putin to make a deal, is more people's lives, lost and putin just isn't worth it.

Nato membership just isn't worth it. As a result. We have easing of fear in commodities like oil like gold, inflation uh will be another level of fear, but inflation in my opinion will actually come in the form and the wave of two major forms of transitory. Now i know this sounds insane because we've heard this whole transitory bs for a whole year, as the federal reserve, essentially just lied to our face, like the transitory never was, but the reality is in the long term, they're going to be right.

The supply chains in the future - i don't know if that's in 6 months or 12 months - likely in that time range six to 12 months, we're going to see supply chains level up if this is coupled with any reduction in aggregate demand because of global and geopolitical Fear or just because prices have gone up and people stop start saying no kind of like they are at macy's they're like no. No, i can't i can't pay these higher prices anymore. Macy's talked about that in their earnings call. Coca-Cola talked about that in their earnings goal.

Well then, we start seeing aggregate demand go down, we see inflation come down and finally, that supply chain style of inflation becomes actually transitory, and then we have a second form of actually transitory inflation, and that's this energy spike. This these high prices for oil are not going to last when the ceo of occidental petroleum, us down petroleum, tells you that we are not going to pump more because we are going to prepare for the next down cycle in oil prices. You know the bubble of oil prices that we're in right now is not going to last when the ceos are saying we're not going to bring more supply online, because it's going to take us too long and this bubble's going to have pop by then okay, that's A reduction of fear these two levels of inflation look we're going to have a horrible cpi report tomorrow. It's i wouldn't be surprised if we get an eight handle, it's expected to come in at 7.8.

It wouldn't be surprising if we get an eight we're really gon na have to parse it out. We're gon na have to go through and determine what are the actual. What's the meat of the matter inside the report uh, what's going on in the month over months for housing and cars and some of the other aspects, so we're going to have to do a lot of parsing and understanding of the actual details to see hey is That first set of transitory inflation, actually transitory or is it just persistent, probably be persistent for a few more months? And then the federal reserve has told us that they're not going to wreck bullets anytime soon, maybe after the war is over. They'll pull us, but for right now, as jerome powell said, his famous words in the last congressional hearing were quote: was a game changer.

So all of these things, together, covid war, commodities, inflation, the two forms of transitory inflation and the fed make me actually not very bearish here, and so personally, this these are the kinds of u-turns that i was looking for in the market. You know some people are like, oh, i guess. Kevin's thesis was wrong. Only morons say that kind of stuff.

Only morons, who listen to like every other video or listen to watch, read just titles and don't actually understand context would say that, because i'm pretty sure in fact i guarantee it. When i sold, i said my goal was to find dates of peak fear between mid-january and mid-march, when the fed meeting is and invest during those times, so that i would be reinvested before march 16th and that's exactly what i'm doing so. I think sometimes people need to hate because they don't appreciate all right folks check out the programs linked down below check out that series a link down below and we'll see in the next one. If you want to join those live streams as well.

Every morning the market's open, i'm there with course, members link down below thanks folks, bye.