Hey everyone me kevin here. We got ta talk about an incredible incredible and scary uh shift that is taking place in the way the stock market functions and it has to do with momentum. I learned by lesson today and guess what you get on this channel for free you get when i make a mistake, you get it now that usually brings out the trolls, and then other people make videos about me and stuff like i don't really care, i'm going To tell you if things are going well, i'm going to tell you things: are going poorly uh just to be transparent with you, so here's one of the things that i noticed last year and i was worried about this trend uh, but clearly it didn't. Stop me from making a mistake today.

The trend that happened last year was we started seeing momentum moving. Well, look in 2020. Everything was just going up right, you could buy any stock and it went up. In 2021, traders became more discriminate.

We would uh pick a stock uh as as traders and and hope for a rally and those rallies when they came would last for at least a few weeks, uh, sometimes even longer, sometimes a month or two think about the gamestop movement. I mean that was a three month, long upward trajectory going into the culmination of the january madness. Uh amc had a very long stretch, the early trading days of workhorse or the momentum movement stocks, no matter what it was. The valuation stayed up the valuations held up and they did well eventually they, as most momentum stocks, did bleed out, though uh that came over time.

But what we've seen at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 is that these momentum cycles to the upside are lasting substantially less time, sometimes as few or as as little upward swings as a day uh towards the end of last year, then we started Seeing half a day rallies in in momentum, movers and uh today we literally saw what momentum felt like for a quarter of the day. We we had momentum that really began around 7 30, especially in a lot of small cap stocks generally after a a hedged event day. You see shorts cover or they rebuild new shorts and, unfortunately i think that's what happened here. We saw prices go up and the rebuilding of selling pressures.

This is what we've seen over the last eight weeks is convictionless rallies prices go up and what happens people put on new, put positions or replace their short positions or sell because they can get out at a break. Even this is very, very dangerous for both crypto and individual stocks going forward as a trader now as a long run, investor that can create opportunities, uh, for example, apple or not apple, tesla. After earnings, amazing earnings, phenomenal earnings, we actually had margin go up. Despite a disaster of a quarter for uh supply chain issues.

Margin at tesla increased absolutely incredible. What happened? The stock immediately tanked five percent. Now the stock has since recovered, which is nice, and i bought a little bit of long-term huddle shares of of tesla uh at the moment, i'm uh after adjusting towards the end of the day, and i got ta finalize these numbers uh. I am about 40 percent uh long and and uh 0.01 sure uh, i've, tiny, tiny little fraction of short left and the rest is cash.

So uh when i say long, it's important to know that long means you're. This is a bullish direction and short means you're. Taking a bearish position, not necessarily that i'm like long term on the particular positions that i have, i do want to be clear that i only closed options. I still have the small cap positions that i opened yeah.

Of course pricing has rotated down so this week. I'm down on trading and it sucks. I was up at the beginning of the week because i closed out my qqq put. I took 482 000 of profit on a qqq.

Put i'm probably not down an additional, maybe i would say about two million dollars for being out of the market so so net. Now, when i look at it that way so far, my moves have put me, in my opinion, up about two and a half million dollars, because i've avoided about two in additional losses: staying in the market, uh and uh, and it took about a four hundred. Eighty two thousand dollar uh profit on a put contract uh on the qqq from uh friday. To monday the problem is uh.

The trades that i took today were expensive uh, and so they have unfortunately and uh a brief crypto trade on monday uh. Those combined have wiped out my profits on my qqq put and again i closed that. So i took that 482 and probably about 200 000 in the negative. Now, on trades for the week, which is sounds like a lot of money, it's one percent of the portfolio and, quite frankly, had i stayed in the market.

I would probably overall, in the overall portfolio i'd be more down on tesla i'd, be more down on end phase, affirm uh the the larger position i had on a matterport i'd be way more down. Had i stayed in the market so again net up because of my belief that this market is just going to kick the can of bad news down the road, quite frankly for the rest of the year now i expected that, and so folks are wondering like well, Then then, why did you buy uh potential short squeeze stocks today, when, when you basically properly forecast the fed? That's that's what people ask me they're like kevin, you, you probably forecast what the fed was going to do, and that is true. I nailed that and what the fed was going to say, but the second part of that is not actually true. I made a mistake on what the fed said.

I thought the federal reserve was going to tell us. The inflation situation has not yet gotten better. I thought we were not. We were going to continue to the taper process.

That happened. We were not going to raise rates. That happened. I was right and i was right, but my expectation was that the fed was going to say inflation is still as bad as it was in december.

A lot of the market was thinking, the federal reserve was going to say things are better than december, but folks, this is where i got screwed and i take responsibility for it. I'm not trying to like point the finger at j pal, even though he was the catalyst. Jay pow told us that if he had to revise his inflation expectations, they would actually be worse right now than december. Things have gotten worse than from december, even though omicron cases are plummeting, the supply chain crisis are getting worse, and so, when we combine these two things, i need to be grateful in the decisions that i've made in that the decisions that i've made over the last Week have left me net up, i'm probably again.

I would have been down probably somewhere around to. If i stayed in the market i would have probably been down two million dollars more uh right now, washing out my trades, i'm down about two hundred thousand dollars. So i feel like i'm up uh, but still still down. I don't know.

I hope that makes sense, i'm sure for those of you who care it makes sense uh the haters will will clip whatever they want. It's fine, hey! You know what you know. What mayweather says uh? I don't care if you say good things or bad things about me as long as you're talking about me, that's working all the haters are talking about me. So views are up.

So i guess i guess i got ta, look at the bright and the right side of what's happening, but uh but anyway, so so that's just full disclosure. Uh again, i am hodling. The shares that i bought this morning. Uh again puts me about 40 along on the market and i'm only short, lucid right now, uh and then the rest is cash.

I do think we are going to have a violent 20 22 and we'll have opportunities throughout this year to buy the dip. I think the biggest lesson is is twofold: out of this video number one do not plan on momentum bets on amc, which i made a bet on amc today, which was a mistake uh i made uh, i made short term option trades, which i i always say This is stupid. The worst thing to do or short term call options, uh expecting the market to go up on a catalyst event, very, very, very dangerous. It's it's roulette and uh.

You know i bet on black and i got red so you know they. They they raked me for for 200k today, then that on the week actually uh down 200., which is a lot but anyway uh so number one be careful. Betting on momentum number two patience. I think patience is critical, uh in this market and it's hard because we're so used to by the dip of 2020 and 2021, because we would just have to huddle for like six weeks and then things got better but we're in a market right now, where things Are getting worse, not better, so uh yeah there you go now.

I i think just to end it. I don't know if it's not crystal clear uh, even though i've said this like a million times, if you are not in margin and i've never been margin called. If you're, not in margin, don't go into margin or limit your margin substantially uh, you could buy the dip, not financial advice for long portfolios, that you're not planning on trading, so that is bullish and that you're not planning on trading and if you are trading, take Profits on options early and cut losses early. Otherwise you might end up getting reamed betting that uh that that momentum is going to come.

Bailey out 2022 is not that year and if i can learn that lesson early, that uh the 20 20 20. The 2022 momentum here is it's not here, then uh we can make. We can revise how we're trading and we can revise how we're buying the dip and again the key. There is profits, early losses early if you're trading, don't bet on momentum and patience, they're going to be more opportunities to buy the dip focus on reducing your expenses, increasing your income and uh overall by the end of 2022.

Hopefully we're we're back in this disinflationary environment that we've been used to over the past decades, since really the 80s and markets can finally relax and focus on growth. Again there you go. Those are my thoughts. Thank you so much for watching this video.

If any of this stresses, you out make sure to get live insurance in as little as five minutes by going to medcabin.comlife thanks so much for watching and we'll see you next time, bye.