Oh, hey: everyone meet kevin here today. We've got to talk about the federal reserve and well projections for what the hell is about to happen on wednesday and folks preview. I don't think it's going to be good. That's because the federal reserve has a few big problems to solve, and i'm not just talking about inflation.

I'm talking about the differences in, what's known as the summary of economic projections, this federal reserve meeting is going to be different in that we actually get a summary of economic projections which we don't get in every single federal reserve meeting. The last time we had one was in march and before that we had one in december, which means we missed january and may for these. These particular meetings are especially important because what they are is a projection of the board members opinions on where the unemployment rate will be where the recession potentials will be, where inflation will be, and a lot of these things have changed since march. So let's talk about these things first from march or in the uh, the march release the one that came out on march 16th, the federal reserve uh blew us away with their gdp projection.

The market was expecting a three and a half percent gdp read they actually came in with 2.8 percent. That was a shock and we saw a little bit of pain at the moment when that scp report came out, uh and so what's fascinating. Here is, i don't think anybody thinks gdp is going to be between 2.8 percent for 2022 and 2 and 2.2 percent for 2023. The reason is we're thinking there might be a recession.

Recession would mean the sap gdp should show some form of gdp closer to zero, and if we go negative, then we see a recession. Now the cool thing about the scp is we actually get a range of what all the different folks on the federal open market committee think for the recession potential last time the gdp range for 2022 was anywhere between 2.1 to an optimistic 3.3. If now imagine this flips and the ranges of gdp projection are like 2022 anywhere between 0.5 to 1.5 percent, huge revision down and then 2023 potentially the ranges are negative: 0.4 to 1, the market's going to freak about that gdp change in direction really big problem. Now, there's a second problem here, though, and we got to get to talking about inflation and unemployment and the fed funds terminal rate, but here's the thing that you really got to think about.

Okay and folks, it has to do with the fed's credibility. This is so freaking critical because back in the 70s - and this is what was different in the 70s - was that inflation was high for six to 10 years. It was over five percent for six to ten years and the fed's, like don't worry, we may have left the gold standard, but don't worry uh the inflation's transitory. Don't worry, we'll get it down with just nominally higher federal funds rates.

Well, what ended up having to happen? We ended up having to get paul volkered. That's because the fed lost so much credibility. Nobody actually thought inflation was going to go down when people don't believe that inflation is going to go down, they demand more pay and they buy more stuff now, which actually self-fulfills more inflation. That's bad.

The fed has to have credibility which they do to some degree. Today but they're losing it, you compare the fed to the rest of the world. The united states dollar is the strongest it's rising substantially over the past few weeks, especially if you compare it against, like the japanese yen, failed monetary policy experience. What happens? The dollar gets stronger, which is actually bad for earnings at u.s companies that are trying to sell to companies or people abroad, because it's more expensive for them to buy products.

You know somewhere around 52 percent of buyers of tesla's are foreign that makes teslas more expensive right, which potentially reduces demand. But anyway, point is: when we talk about the fed, they have to maintain credibility and, unfortunately, because of their spat with transitory inflation, they don't appear to have very much credibility left right now, and so that's why my opinion this next scp report is really really really Really really critical see if we end up having the federal reserve give us an sep report, that's sort of like oh hey, guys, all right, um, yeah uh. We think gdp is going to go down from 2.8 percent of the end of the year. We actually project.

Now that it's going to be like 2.4 percent well, everybody's just going to roll their eyes at the fed and then we'll have even less faith in the fed, and i think the fed realizes that. I think the fed's going to realize that. Okay, what we have to do this time is we actually have to make sure that we give a summary of economic projections. That's reasonable.

If we have an inverted yield curve, which is just inverted again today - the 10-2 treasury yield curve, then we probably actually need to be honest with people for once and project a proper gdp forecast, because otherwise we won't have any freaking credibility left. At the same time, they're obviously going to warm us up to the idea of what the market's already starting to price in which is a higher terminal, fed funds rate, and they need to do this again to maintain credibility if they come up and they're. Like. Oh we're just going to go for 250s and then we're going to go for 25s again nobody's going to think they're credible.

So they have to give us bad news in order to maintain their own freaking credibility. They have to tell us we're going to go for what the market's saying potentially 175 bp hike, whether that's in june or it's in july, followed by 50s 25s are gone. 50 is the new 25 and 75s are the new 50s, because we're not seeing that inflection down in inflation. They can't even pull the narrative that they were polling in march or in may, which is like.

Oh there's some measures that inflation has peaked and it's trending down not after this last report, it's a complete freaking disaster. So two big problems here: okay and then we got ta talk about these, these uh other things regarding uh inflation and unemployment of that i'm gon na summarize these two big problems right after i just mentioned that this video is brought to you by public. If you want to get a free stock worth all the way up to a thousand dollars, make sure to go to medkevin.com public, and if you go to public and sign up and deposit any amount of money, a company that does not use payment for overflow, they Will give you one thousand dollars or up to one thousand dollars in free stock, just for signing up all right check them out by the link down below my kevin.com okay, so the two big problems again number one. They have to give us bad news on the scp, otherwise they lose credibility and they have to give us bad news on the raid forecast, because inflation just isn't transitory.

That means all of a sudden this whole idea. Again, oh yeah, don't worry guys everything's, smooth sailing out dude, don't mind a hurricane out. There don't mind you need that. All of that is just bull crap.

The fed's got to give it to us straight for once to maintain their credibility, because only if they are credible, well, inflation expectations come down and see. This is a concern. The last inflation expectations that came out friday came out in such a way that uh. Well, i should say they came out right before the consumer sentiment survey came out, which was a complete disaster and consumers.

Inflation expectations actually rose more substantially than expected. That's bad but wait a minute if consumers expectations for inflation shot up before inflation actually shot up in this last terrible report. That means the next outpouring or the next uh report on consumer inflation. Expectations could be even worse unless the fed has substantial credibility and again they can't be credible if they keep telling us that oh everything's fine, they have to make us feel like paul volcker's coming, and maybe he won't, but this whole softest landing thing.

They should kill that stop, saying we're going in for a soft landing. I wish joe biden would do this too. They need to wake up and go listen. Folks, it's not all good.

It's bad. We have a problem: you need to start saving money and get out of debt and you're going to have a crap time if you're invested in real estate or stocks, and they got to be real with us, because if they would just be freaking real with us, Then people would actually trust them again. That's why this scp is going to be so important, no more softish landing, because you know what the softest landing is all right. Now we said that we're good okay, we got ta now talk about the other problems in the report, because the other problems in the report are also a big problem.

The unemployment report is going to be bad in this projection. I'm going to explain that so here's what i mean with the unemployment report being bad. So when we potentially flirt with a recession, you see, companies go bankrupt like revlon went bankrupt. That was terrible and when companies go bankrupt, people lose their jobs.

So we expect the unemployment rate to go up, but the fed has only projected that the unemployment rate would tick up by 2024.. This is more freaking fed and i'm tired, oh gosh, there's no ladder not like a beached whale over here. Okay, look! Oh! This is the best plug for life insurance right here make sure you get yourself life insurance in as little as five minutes link down below go to kevin.com. Slash, live, i'm gon na not be pacing on the deck anyway uh.

So where were we? Oh, the unemployment? So here's the thing in the last scp they bullshitted us again: okay, they told us. They told us that the unemployment rate would take up in 2024. First, this is they're full of crap. They've told us many times that they need to in order to get inflation down, lower lower inflation by raising rates, and that is going to lead to a tick up in unemployment, especially if you have a recession or depression right.

They need to be real with that. In the next scp report, the problem is, if they're real with us in that next scp report, people are going to freak out again, so you've got a lot of potential freak out coming. You've got the change in real gdp. That forecast is going to be a disaster.

I think it's going to. The range is going to flirt with recessionary numbers and either look they're either real with us and it flirts with recessionary, numbers and everybody freaks out, or they lie to us and everybody freaks out, because they're not credible and that's even worse. We need them to have credibility, which means we need to stop the and wake up the fed funds rate. Okay, the terminal fed funds rate - oh boy, this one, this one's a disaster, okay, so the last projection for the fed's fed funds rate at the end of the year was 1.9.

They told us the fed told us we need to get above neutral neutral is when we're not constrictive or accommodative we're. Neither of those that's about expected to be 2.5, though nobody actually knows where the neutral rate is fine. Well, in the last scp, they told us they would get to 1.9 now they're telling us oh well. We think we're going to go a little above neutral, which would imply a terminal rate of somewhere between 2.75 to 3.25 percent.

You don't even want to know what traders are pricing in right now, i'm going to tell you right after i mentioned that folks seriously build your first million become a millionaire in real estate. It's much more stable! It's much more predictable! You don't have to try to time the market as crazily, although there are opportunities in the macro real estate cycle to make a lot of money. The real estate cycle is slow and it's very predictable and, in my opinion, especially with mortgage rates, now touching six percent. After the ten years, skyrocketed you're going to have some really sick opportunities to make money in income property investing in real estate.

That doesn't mean that if you're a homeowner, you should freak out and dump your home or whatever it's too expensive. To worry about that. But you should be lowering your debt and preparing getting educated. How am i going to find wedge deals? Where am i going to buy wedge deals? How am i going to get wedge multi-family deals? What's the difference between a wedge rent deal, a wedge condition deal a wedge, oh deal.

These are all very important things. If you don't know these things seriously check out the programs linked down below on building your wealth, zero to a million real estate. Investing i guarantee you, this is the most comprehensive program that exists out there on real estate. Nobody continues to add to their courses except for me, i add to my programs, especially when times change and folks, a bunch of flipping courses out there.

The last thing you want to do is flipping focus on a real product, and that's what the though, what this is: that's what i'm so proud of, always being able to sponsor myself and my channel, because it's what i believe in the most is myself and my Ability to provide you value so check that out, link down below there's some other real estate programs as well, if you're in sales or you want to learn, do it yourself, property management or my tricks for rental renovations, but folks, the terminal rate that traders are now Pricing in for the fed's fed funds rate is four percent that means on this next scp. If the fed wants any freaking credibility, we got ta drive. I forgot if the fed wants any credibility anymore, any credibility, anything! Oh! Let me get my glasses over here. If the fed wants any credibility, they're going to have to update the scp terminal rate - and that is also going to freak out the market, so the terminal funds rate for a terminal rate for the end of the year again was expected to be one point.

Gosh 1.9. My expectation is in this next report from the fed, we're honestly probably going to get something like 2.8 to 3.2 by the end of the year. That's also going to freak the market out. So look you're going to have low buying volumes between now and the fed meeting, because people don't like uncertainty, people freak out over uncertainty and i would expect low buying volumes between now and the fed meeting.

But when we get the fed meeting, i also think we're going to experience a disaster, we're going to be in a situation where, when we look at that scp we're going to go holy crap. This is the fed trying to regain the people's trust, trying to regain the credit, credibility and look i'll. Tell you as much as you might hate the fed right now. At least we have like some regulation and a fed and institutions that like try to solve problems when they come up, which is what crypto, unfortunately does not have and that's why we started this whole stable coin disaster, which we've been talking about potentially happening since the End of 2020 on this channel, i've always said stable coins.

I don't understand them. I don't understand why i mean i understand them, but i don't understand how they're not multi-re-hypothecated, with no regulation and how that's okay, and that, unfortunately, is now affecting, what's actually a really good technology. Blockchain technology, i'm a big fan of blockchain technology, but i'm very concerned about the future for of an unregulated environment uh. You know - and i don't want to come across as like a fed shill.

I think they effed up here. I really think they effed up and that's why i think they're going to have to regain credibility. This is not going to be like a paul volcker, but it's kind of like this is like the pre-pulvering anyway folks. I wish you the best.

I seriously do i'm always here for you and uh i'll, keep you updated check out those programs linked down below i'm gon na head back and do a course. Member live stream now and uh look forward to talking to you all soon, thanks bye.