We have a double set release of data coming out in just moments. About uh, four and a half minutes. we're going to get the data release, retail sales, and PPI numbers. Now PPI has been a big deal.

Following CPI releases. To be clear, CPI is the Consumer Price Index measure and I'm going to give you the estimates in just a moment. Uh, Ppi is the seller's side, so think about it if the survey is being conducted. If you're doing the CPI survey, you go into the store.

hey, how much is the product in the store? If you're conducting a producer price survey, you're calling up a producer saying, hey, yo, how are your wholesale input costs doing? Are they going up? Are they going down on top of that PPI number We'll get retail sales of data today, which is all a very big deal. So first let's go through some of the estimates: producer price, inflation, Final Demand estimate Negative Point One: that's a big deal. I'm going to go ahead and put this up on screen here. so we've got uh, month over month negative point one percent for PPI and then we have uh X Food and energy is expected to be so this would be your core.

Month over month is expected to be point one percent. If you take out trade as well, you're expected to be at point two percent. Fine. Uh, final Demand: Year over year is expected to be 6.8 percent with core year over year at 5.6 Uh, so those are those are pretty important numbers.

All of these coming out within the next three minutes at this point. Uh, welcome. Thank you so much for being a member of the Channel Black Girl Meet World. Appreciate it.

Okay, then retail sales numbers are expected to basically be negative. Across the board, retail sales month over month are expected to be negative. Point Nine: That's actually a really big number because if you think about negative 0.9 negative, 0.9 times 12 an annual rate. Don't use exponents.

By the way, people mess this up all the time. See it in the comments all the time. They're like hotline. You must use exponent like no.

this is the speed we're going at. This is not compounded. Okay, uh. anyway.

0.9 at an annualized rate is 10.8 retail sales decline, so that would be good for inflationary pressures if we get some kind of number like that. But so far, consumers are doing pretty well. I've got an I Got a big video coming out later this morning about uh, soft Landing versus Hard Landing It's going to be a long video, but I Highly recommend if you're watching this video right now. you have not seen the other one yet.

Open a tab, just type in Meet Kevin Uh, soft Landing Epic Market Disaster. It'll be some kind of title like that. Really, really insightful about soft versus Hard Landing and some stock picks potentially as well for either of those scenarios. so that'll be really cool so we'll talk about that.

Uh, really appreciate you all being here I Want to be clear also that I've made some changes recently. Uh, it. And I think they're they're for the better health of the channel I'd Appreciate your commentary down below though. First thing: I'm focused now more on uh, very informative videos.

uh, in longer videos I will be putting time stamps in the bottom of videos probably other than live stream games, so that way it's easier for you to kind of. if you just want to watch shorter stuff you can uh, but a lot more information, longer videos trying to make it a little easier for you to find that data as opposed to having too many videos I think that'll be easier. Uh on. In addition to that, I have moved my course member live streams to 6 A.m.

So California time the 6 a.m course member live streams and we'll do fundamental analysis, technical analysis, trading challenge. Everything will be done at six for about 45 minutes every day. The market is open which is great and uh and uh. we.

We will have a large price increase on those programs on building your wealth coming on the 30th, so that's about 12 days away. So mark your calendar for that. Book some more stock gains maybe, but mark your calendar for that. That'll be uh, that'll be a big change as well.

Okay, we are now 25 seconds away from the data so I'm uh, I'm pretty anxious here. So these, uh, the PPI numbers are going to be the first that I'm going to read out. I'll probably read them out as they come in. but if if we have a PPI Miss and we get a positive number, uh, Stock's gonna go down baby.

Oh, it's gonna suck. But so far the trend has been. let's keep it going negative, keep it going negative and this is going to solidify the 25 BP hike for the FED I Think here we go and and at a retail sales come in worse than Excel. Oh my gosh, it's all plummeted.

This is great. This is great. It's actually really good. PPI Final demand comes in negative point five percent.

The expectation was negative 0.1 That's amazing. You met the expectation for core at point one. Uh, minus trade came in less than expected. A point.

What? Holy crap. Year over year plummeted. Oh bullish man. Uh wow.

it was supposed to be 6.8 It came in at 6.2 x Food energy trade year over year matched at 4.6 Retail sales come in worse than expected. Negative 1.1 percent versus the negative point. Nine percent expected retail sales X are holy crap dude. Oh my gosh, Uh, this this this is like the FED should pause man.

Holy crap Retail sales X Auto month over month Negative of 0.5 Expectation comes in at negative 1.1 Holy crap, that's that's off by a factor of two. Uh, in a bullish way. Retail sales X Autos and gas. uh, were supposed to come in at zero percent.

Came in at negative point Seven percent. People aren't spending anymore. Uh, like the here's your recession. Okay, fed, you're done.

Dude, this is gonna plummet inflation expectations. This is such good news. Uh, Retail Sales Control Group comes in also more than twice as bad as expected. We're expecting negative.

Point Three: We got negative. Point Seven: Uh, PPI Final Demand again. Uh, coming in at negative point five versus the Uh negative 0.01 expected. Oh, and a downward revision on the prior.

Holy crap. Everything got revised down on the prior. Oh my gosh, what is going on? PPI Final will demand Month over month for the prior read was 0.3 and I Remember, markets were pissed about that. Point Three: Guess what happened? Revised down to point two.

Prior read on Core: PPI month over month was 0.4 Everybody was pissed about that. The last read: Guess what? Revise down to point two: Retail sales prior month Negative Point Six: Guess what? Revise down: Negative One percent, almost double is bad X Autos Three times as bad the prior was negative. Point Two: Revised to negative Point Six: This is insane. Uh oh yeah, The stock market is loving this.

I'm just looking at QQQ right now and you just I mean talk green shoot green shoot baby. Uh holy crap this. These numbers are the freaking nominal. Absolutely insane numbers Tesla's up four freaking percent in pre-market on this.

Uh holy smokes, these numbers are this. This is really insane. Uh I'm I'm gonna I want to see what the suits are saying on this? but these numbers are. they would be called a Miss because they came in lower than expected, right? But they're They're like bullish.

It's a bullish. Miss Uh, this is that. This is absolutely shocking. Uh, especially after CPI just met expectations I Thought maybe you would have gotten meat here, but this is such a big Miss in a good way.

uh, Euro dollar Futures yields extended their declines after Big Data dump which showed retail sales subtracting more than expected PPI substantially below expectations. This should drop yields Let me look: I Want to I Want to see instant Market reaction? This is insane. Uh, it's so good though. so good it's such a good way.

Oh man, uh okay. all future screen dawa 0.09 s p Futures up quarter uh NASDAQ up. Uh, just a little over a third Bonds plummeting on this oil. still up a little bit.

uh, but that's because of some of the European forecasts. Let's get some work to do with that in China But um, and and these can like shell shock a little bit. they can be a little shell shocky, right? But 10 year here? 3.44 basically down almost a full 10 basis points from yesterday. Big deal.

So again, uh to me folks, somebody here is asking, have we seen a bottom like I I like I I I Don't want to say it, but let me just say if I was in person with you I'd probably grab you and be like this is it baby. but but I wouldn't I wouldn't do that on on YouTube I You know I have to be professional on YouTube uh so no, this this is. uh, look, there's always a risk that in the future inflation data comes in, you know, bad again. uh and that's what I I said that right before the data came out I'm like I'm worried that we get to miss up because then socks will tank right.

this data this slam dunk. Worst case here: 25 BP We might even be getting a Fed pause in March this These numbers are terrible. Absolutely terrible. uh for for the economy, but absolutely great for inflation.

uh again. I Want to just reiterate, uh, some of these numbers here in case you're just now joining this. This is insane. Okay, this is so insane David Risk here.

love the last name says uh, time for some Tesla tequila I I like I I'm game. come over let's go I have a bottle of Tesla tequila I'm ready. let's let's uh let's drink some on the pee pee although what the hell my PP went down for maintenance already I Guess that's what happens when you own a plane. Uh some stupid thing about the windshield defroster I'm like we don't need that Jack you know that junk and I'm like how much is a new windshield? how much could it be And they're like it's a hundred thousand dollars I'm like that's not what I wanted to hear.

Uh, but anyway. Uh so I want to reiterate this: Retail Sales Jeez man, this is insane. Okay, Compose yourself. Kevin Compose yourself.

Retail Sales: Okay expectation. Negative Point Nine comes in a negative 1.1 with a big revision on the last from negative point six to negative 1.0 We we are going to go in my opinion to uh, uh, the second half of this year and we're going to be staring deflation in the face I Understand people regularly leave these comments and I just want to I Want to shake those people because I'm like you don't understand and it's fine. Like I it's fine if people don't know. but I want to help you learn.

Okay inflation and this is so important: Inflation may go up. Your hamburger may go from a hundred dollars because you know our dollar is basically worthless. Now you may go from a hundred dollars to a hundred and ten dollars. That's ten percent inflation, right? But if it goes now to from 110 to 110, let's say that's Zero percent inflation year over year.

You have to remember those year over year numbers. You go to 111. That's less than one percent inflation. I Actually think there's a very real possibility we could be staring deflationary numbers in the face Very, very, very soon.

Uh, we'll just wait for those housing numbers to tank because they will. Uh, you know. I've been warning about a housing market crash since January of 2022 when I dumped all my real estate. Well, it took me like four or five months to dump all my real estate.

but I'm happy I did. Anyway, these numbers are so good. Um, so okay. again reiterating negative point.

Nine percent on the survey we got negative 1.1 Uh, we got, uh, retail sales core? that's X Auto Uh, twice as bad as expected. Negative 1.1 versus the survey of 0.5 Triple the revision of negative 0.2 to negative point. So I'm not going to go through all these numbers again. just rewind the video.

But this is very, very incredible. What I do want to do is actually look at the producer price index report and let's look at some of that. But holy smokes, this is incredible. PPI We'll go ahead and pull this up.

I Also want to see what other commentary we're getting here. Retail sales were weaker than expected across the board. With downward revisions to Prior figures as well. The monthly change in control group sales was the lowest since December of 2021.

Wonder if there's a seasonal adjustment at play? However, this is exactly the kind of softening and demand the FED is looking for and will be welcomed. meanwhile. PPI uh core aggravate Aggregates gave it a bit lower than expect, a bit lower, a lot lower. uh uh.

Obviously not as important as CPI but still shows deteriorating inflation duh uh future. Spike after this uh, this is very, very good. Uh, very happy about this. So sell or buy it should be obvious.

Oh okay. look in my opinion. uh and I have been of this mindset for way too early. but I've been of the mindset that inflation will plummet.

that plummet is starting to happen. I think if you position into companies that have high free cash flow margin like pricing power, you could be in a good place. uh. and and and we could see some very rapid movements in the stock market.

Keep in mind it was just Morgan Stanley yesterday. Morgan Stanley Yesterday said there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, a lot of cash just waiting to be put to work. Uh, I'm not here to advocate for like YOLO call options on stuff I'm not going to do that. but I think the best thing that could be done now the cheapest in my opinion is owning shares.

Uh I mean if you can own an actively managed ETF that can rebalance when things run. Big fan of that pricing power style. Big big big fan of that. I Just want to be careful of money losing companies.

I Was looking at uh Roblox quite a bit the other day and um I I Can't get past how how their expenses are skyrocketing. uh and their revenue doesn't match that so that that makes me nervous. But let's look at the actual PPI report here. so let's see here.

Uh, okay. Producer price Index declined: 0.5 Remember the expectation uh was negative 0.1 we got five times. Uh, this is so great. uh in December The decrease in final demand can be attributed to a 1.6 percent decline in prices for final goods Goods deflation is here, baby.

And oh, that's this. Part's not as good though. uh, in contracts. contrast the index for final Demand Services Rose 0.1 percent.

Oh, but that's not that bad actually because point one times twelve, that's only 1.2 percent inflation. Oh, that's actually really good. Oh, that's good because Services inflation takes a lot longer to Tumble right? Okay, really quick note here: I Get this question all the freaking time. People like: Kevin Why are companies that are going bankrupt? Uh, like skyrocketing momentum? That's it.

You get in the news cycle, you get people making YOLO bets and there's very, very very thin. uh uh, order book volume because the people who were gonna sell have already sold. So uh, that. That makes it very easy to run up the order book of sellers.

Uh, and it makes it very easy for these to meme, stock and momentum up. It won't last. Okay Party City Carvana Bed Bath and Beyond all this garbage that's going to be Bank Open door. all that garbage Please to God Do Not hoddle that crap like play the meme stuff.

play the momentum stuff. But and no guarantees obviously. but I am of the opinion that it is a terrible Buy and Hold and they're going to go to zero. The problem is, you have this crazy mentality of of uh, the what happened with hurts Hertz goes bankrupt.

the stock skyrockets. Why? Because they got overbid in bankruptcy court. Now why would a company get overbid in bankruptcy court Because they had gold baby. They had gold.

They had used cars when nobody had used cars and used cars were like doubling in value. So the company became a lot more value because of the assets it had. That's not true for Revlon or Party City or Bed Bath and Beyond these companies trash. they're going to zero.

Sorry to be blunt about it. make your money trading. What the hell out? Uh, not. Financial advice Anyway, uh.

prices for final demand less food energy? Okay, fine. Final Demand Prices for move Down Largest decrease Uh, since falling blah blah blah. Okay, whatever. whatever.

Wait, this is actually an interesting line. Final Demand Prices for Final Demand Goods Move down 1.6 in December The largest decrease since falling 1.8 percent in July Wow. Uh. leading the December decline was demand for energy.

But we also had core drop prices for final Demand Foods Oh thank God Food's finally coming down 1.2 percent uh index for final demand Goods less food and energy actually Advanced Point two percent Not so great, right? Point: Two percent is about 2.4 Inflation Nearly half can be declined or traced to a 13.4 percent decline in gasoline. The indices for diesel fuel, jet fuel, dry, vegetables, blah blah blah blah blah also fell Thank God Chicken eggs moved higher Yeah, we keep hearing that about eggs. but again I I I Even though a lot of this is attributed to energy and food, remember, you could look at retail sales X Autos and gas down Point negative or or down point seven percent. And if you look at PPI uh X food and energy, you're up point one percent which is only 1.2 percent inflation.

Huge disinflation, right? Huge disinflation. Uh, a major factor in the December increase in prices. Final Demand Services was a 17.6 percent jump in margins for fuels and lubricants. Really? Fuels and lubricants are now Services Retailing Okay, interesting.

Uh Airline Passenger services in patient Care Okay, that's always the red flag recently. Hospital Care I I Would talk about that in my video coming out this morning and wholesaling also moved higher. Airline Passenger services that make sense. The index for residential real estate loans, machinery, and guest room rental also fell.

I've been talking about this coming Airbnb Bubble The vacation rental Bubble I Highly caution you to stay away from vacation rentals over the next year. I Have a real estate startup? Uh, and we are conducting a lot of data and research on a regular basis on this and we are very nervous about a vacation rental bubble. Very, very nervous about that. That's going to create opportunities, but you don't want to catch a falling knife on that one.

Uh, by the way, we're also oh my gosh, we have this like ins: we're going to do something so insane with house Hack my real estate startup. uh before we announce or probably around the time that we take our reggae uh investors which basically means non-accredited When we open up for the non-accredited round, we're going to announce our new like game plan and it's insane. It's so good. I'm so excited like it's like we're all like shaking with excitement to share it.

Uh, it's it's it's gonna be very very very very very very exciting. Anyway, what else do we have here? So this is, uh, this shows us uh, over time here. Uh, adjustments. This is not so fun.

This is boring. Uh, Internet processed goods for demand product detail. Nearly two-thirds of the December decline. That index for processed Goods can be traced to a 27 drop in diesel fuel.

Again, yes, the big negatives are from fuel. We got that. But even without fuel, massive disinflation which is fantastic production flow. Okay stay.

prices for Stage Four: Intermediate demand declined 0.3 percent in December following four consecutive increases thank goodness. uh. prices for total Services Input: Rose Point Three percent Not so ideal. Uh, on stage four, these are different stages of of production.

which they they Define It's not so important, it's just I'm trying to just point out where where are we seeing issues Still, because I know that's what the Fed's going to be looking at. Uh, increase in prices for gross rents for retail properties? That's going to plummet. That's the thing. Every time you see housing and rent stuff like office rent or whatever, it's gonna go down.

baby. That's good. Decreases in prices for jet fuel I Really like to hear that all of a sudden like that really hits home. It sucks how expensive it is.

Um, okay. gross friends for retail properties, right outweighed by increases in growth, right? Another another indicator here about rents. That's fine. We expect rents to plummet.

Not a big deal. Okay, all right, let me see a little bit more of what is Wall Street saying so A little bit more on Wall Street Welcome aboard! Thanks so much for joining! I Was literally about to get in and buy an Airbnb but after seeing how less and less people are renting them I decided to stay away. I Might invest in one later, but it would be after this recession. Yeah, it doesn't have to be after the recession like it could.

It just just later, right? Like it's okay to buy stuff in a recession. Just wait. not yet. It also depends on when the recession is.

but uh, but no, that's smart move. Okay, so pipeline inflation is tumbling. retail sales tumbling producer prices plunging the most since the coveted lockdowns spot gold gains after economic data. Yeah, that's because now you have fears that like the recessions here, I Gotta look at pricing for the break-evens Please tell me the five-year break even as plummeted.

Please please please please please I want it to be at the lowest level yet? uh. line chart one sec I Highly respect Kathy Wood But I will not invest and I know she's offended by by people saying this. It's just a different strategy. It's no offense to her, but I get very nervous about Innovative companies that are not driving a cash flow profit yet because I think in a recession, they have to dilute their shareholders or get expensive debt.

That's it. I'm not saying that profitless tech companies are bad I'm just saying I think they're They're not as good for a shareholder as really profitable Tech that is sold off, right? Uh, so so that's why my thesis, uh, in Pricing Power is looking at companies that have high free cash flow High margins, high growth. and even if they have to reduce production a little bit of reduced prices, they still have relatively more pricing power than their competitors. But they're cash flow positive.

So so that's my thesis. Uh, hers is a little bit more open to for example, a company like Roku good company in my opinion I won't invest in them I don't like their strategies, it's just different strategies, right? And there's nothing wrong with that. Uh, again, big fan of her as an individual. Uh I think her company's great I think her researchers are awesome I I Would love to do more interviews with some of her researchers uh, or or her or anyone really like I'm so fascinated.

uh and and uh, you know their strategy could end up being best. It's just a different strategy and it's okay for people to have a different opinion. So what I do think is laughable though. and this is where I completely agree with her.

uh what? I do think is laughable though, Are people saying things like you know, oh uh, like anybody investing in Tech uh, which attack has underperformed or whatever is is an idiot or a bad investor or whatever, it's like, no, it's just a tactical trade that's happening in markets right now, right? It makes sense for institutions to tactically move away from growth and Innovation into Staples or energy or Healthcare But as tactical, the nature of tactical trades work that's expected to reverse and that that'll be quite glorious. Uh, of course you don't want to go all opium and start going call options because they're quite expensive. But anyway. okay here.

Uncle Jesse says deflation is good interest rate. pause or go down next if this keeps up. Yes, so the five-year break even has not changed yet. It is still at the one of the It's probably at the second lowest point this year, but I that'll probably change as the day goes on.

It usually does. If I look at 10-year treasuries, they are now. Wow. Down 11 basis points.

That's incredible. although that could change as the day goes on. A look at. Goldman Financial indicator tightness Goldman Financial Conditions They probably haven't moved yet, but we'll see.

Goldman Financial Conditions Nope, they haven't moved just yet. That's fine. U.S Data supports less dovish fed I Think they mean more dovish fed I think they wrote that wrong. Uh uh.

PPI came down, which is what the FED would like. but weakening economy seen in retail sales won't be greeted as good news. Well, okay, maybe for stocks. Both readings, though, argue for a less hawkish Fed So that should support stocks in a weaker dollar.

Yeah, well, the dollar was ridiculous. Actually, keep this in mind. This is another important thing for you to know. And personally I think it's little tidbits like this: Why you want to watch my videos in full I'm not trying to Pat myself on the back I Just think nobody else is telling you this crap.

Um, but then again, I don't really watch anybody else so maybe I'm jaded. Uh, so I believe that. first of all, look, we know the Dollar's peaked out okay. I've been shorting the dollar since last summer.

Uh, I Said there was another possible 11 downside. we had roughly that, uh, ended up taking my attendees on on the dollar short when when it really fell. uh, like about a month ago. But anyway, the interesting thing about the dollar falling is it really benefits companies with a lot of foreign exposure.

So if you look at a company like hmm Taiwan semiconductors or Nvidia or AMD or Tesla or even Apple what do these companies have a lot of exposure to foreign markets? Huge exposure. Look at a company like Tesla sells like 45 of their cars outside the US. So if the dollar weakens, you actually see stronger sales. These have been like the strong dollar has hurt earnings at so many of these U.S companies so weaker dollar is actually great.

Uh okay and yeah, I would not be surprised to see a pretty strong move in um in Market state by the way, like just a like a little shout out here I Would not recommend buying ETFs in prayer post Market Okay, just say wait until the market is open or closed. uh unless they're like super highly traded. But usually the liquidity in pre or post Market is just terrible and so you get really ugly dislocations. So a brief look here because we're going to go to our course member live stream in about five minutes.

I Gotta make another cup of coffee too. Seriously, by the way and and like, seriously, if you buy just one of the courses, you get lifetime access to those course member live streams for however long I Do them at some point I Imagine when I'm like 50, I'm gonna be like I don't want to do it anymore. Uh, but for however long I do it. you get lifetime access to those.

And what's great is if you're ever interested in a stock, what a lot of course members do is they just type in. they're like, oh, has Kevin done an analysis on ticker, blah blah and they're like, oh yeah, he did. he looked at the earnings. it's great.

It's a great resource I think uh and that's even beyond all the lectures you get with the courses, which is great I Don't know what happened to Arcimoto here, but I'm very curious I Don't know if this is just like pre-market liquidity issues, but Arcimoto got destroyed here. Uh, I Have been concerned about Akimoto briefly. If you are an Orkimoto investor, I recommend you look type into YouTube meet Kevin Tech Arkomoto and you'll actually see an interview that I do with the CEO and I'm like look, why aren't you guys like building Like focusing Focusing on this. This idea of like coming up with the design and letting other people manufacture it I don't think this is a Direction and so I've been a little bit bearish sadly because of that and I want them to win because they're the nicest people ever.

but uh, nice. Unfortunately, it doesn't get you market gains. So if I go to, let's look at Arkey News. Uh futbucker.

God Why do I say this out loud? Uh, it's so nice to to remind you that this is the biggest coupon ever now with a price guarantee. That's true. Three month price guarantee and honestly it would probably be even longer than that. Uh, okay, so Arcimoto, Oh see, they're they're they're They're offering four million shares.

That's what I'm telling you. That's what I'm telling you. Okay, this is what happens. Nobody believes me.

But when you look at profitless companies, what do they have to do in a recession? They have to print stock and it dilutes shareholders and then the damn stock drops 60. So people that are like oh, but Kevin you know Roblox is a higher user base of of users or whatever I don't care I'm not gonna buy it. Why? I don't care if it goes up 50 because what happens when they issue? you know, multi-millions of new shares because they have to raise money because they keep losing money. Although they do have a good cast, a good balance sheet, they just have a lot of money going to stock based call which is also dilutive, right? You just have to be careful.

So Roblox may be not the best example. Maybe I'll use Roku as more of an example. but the point is, you go to a recession. People need cash.

so what do you do You issue shares? The whole point of the stock market. I Think people think the point of the stock market is so that you can invest in companies. Raw The whole point of the stock market is an opportunity for companies to raise cash. That's the whole point of the stock market.

you know? Obviously then there are side benefits like incentivizing employees with stock based comp and blah blah blah blah or being able to buy back when stocks below whatever. I Gotta go. uh yes, thank you for being here. I Appreciate you leave me comments down below with uh, your thoughts By the way, uh, like let me know your thoughts on this the the uh, sort of like six hour seminar idea.

Uh, if you're willing to go to something like that, maybe what you'd be willing to pay, let me know your thoughts on uh, maybe like hey, what are you looking for in the courses? why are you not considering joining, right? Is it just timing recessionary times? You know? Even though that's probably the best time to learn and educate yourself, let me know. Okay I gotta go make a cup of coffee. which means I'll probably be like a minute late for the course of my life, but I'll be there shortly.