Good Morning CPI Data comes out within three minutes and it's expected to be quite scary. Current expectations are CPI month over month point six Betting expectations that is. People who bet on what the result will be and put their money where their mouth is, are expecting that number will actually come in high at point seven percent. Note: over the past 10 CPI reports, we have only come in lower once. so maybe the betting odds are right CPI Core month over month expected to be 0.5 CPI year over year expected to be 7.9 CPI Core year over year expected to be 6.5 Uh. Note: I Have uh made my own prediction I'm hopeful uh, that we get a month over month read of 0.4 which is below the 0.6 and a CPI year over year read of 7.7 Though you never know, so it's going to be quite interesting and it's a big deal. Everything is based on this. see: the Federal Reserve does not need to slow the labor market if inflation. Falls And there are some optimistic signs that inflation is starting to Trend down. We looked at quite a few of these yesterday. Uh, we have uh Commodities trending down you have here. We can take a look at some of them really quick. Uh, you have underlying inflation trending down. You have break evens trending down. but in the if you just look at the past two months, we've had a little bit of an uptrend uh, less pressure on ISM Manufacturing prices. some indications on earnings calls that maybe we might see in inflection commodity price inflation rotating down and hear those estimates. So you've got some reasons for optimism. but big downside is obviously rental inflation. Very, very sticky. It takes quite a while for CPI to actually reflect rental inflation. Uh, inflicting to the downside. and part of that has to do with the fact that CPI is actually still going to show rent going up, it's still playing catch-up even though Market rents have started coming down, CPI is still playing catch-up even though rents have started coming down. It's pretty remarkable. All right. So we are. Now this is a big moment. We can see some big changes in price here. I Mean you see the S P swing probably two percent in either direction? Uh, unless it's really bad, then we'll go minus five. Big moment: If you're in the market you want low, if you're not in the market you want High All right here we go about 10 seconds away. I'm gonna read off the month over month data first, which we're expecting to be 0.6 and here it comes. Month over month. Point Four: Let's go Holy year over year 7.7 I was right. it comes in low. Oh my. God I Nailed it. Oh that's so good. Yes, oh good. Oh my gosh uh sorry that was that is so freaking good. Uh, we gotta get that report up that is. Uh oh my gosh. Uh, that's really really good. Uh, finally Finally, all basically all of the bank expectations were wrong. Uh, they were all high. Uh yeah. Wow. Uh, this is this is incredible. Let's go ahead. and I just want to get the CPI report. uh up. And then we're going to go through some of the details here. but this again. uh. headline here is great. Uh, headline is uh, year over year? Uh 7.7 The uh, that's below the 7.9 survey. Uh, the uh. 0.6 CPI month over month comes in at 0.4 Uh, core. Month over month comes in at point three. This is great. Finally. uh, cooling. A relaxation I Want to see uh, how treasury yields are moving on this? Uh oh yeah. Treasury yields down like 16 basis points. That's not a surprise to me. I Was expecting Treasury's deployment. Uh, if we had a soft, um, report today? Uh, that is. treasury yields to plummet so the bond market actually rallies on this. Um, wow, that is. That is incredible. Okay looking at what some of the suits are saying here. so uh. gold is up 1.1 percent? Uh, good news at last. Core pace of inflation down notably on a monthly basis? Uh, core? Yep, Okay, we talked about the estimates. All right. good. Let's go to the actual report. Wow. Uh, this is this is incredible. So uh wow. Okay, that's crazy. Here it is. folks. Look at that point, four percent. I I swear I didn't see the report before. This is crazy Like that's so crazy. Um, index for Shelter contributed over half of the monthly increase. Yeah, so this is the sticky one that's left, folks. I Mean this is so good because this is really telling us that inflation's like as if we can reiterate this in: December Jerome Powell Can just take the stick out of his butt Like seriously? Uh, Okay with with the Indus indices for gasoline and food also increasing, the energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the gasoline and electricity index Rose But natural gas index decreased, the food index increased 0.6 percent with food at, uh, food at home Rising Point Four percent. So you're seeing that. restaurant inflation still still pretty strong right here. Uh, that's about a 7.2 percent annualized rate, right? So you're seeing restaurant inflation strong. You're seeing a little bit of a move up in energy. Uh, and you're seeing a little bit of move up in, uh, in, in, probably shelter here. But if you take out food and energy, you're only at point. three percent, which is great. Uh, the biggest risers were shelter Motor Vehicle Insurance New vehicles? Still? Are you serious? New cars? still? Uh. indices that it declined where used cars trucks Medical Care Apparel airfare indices. All right, let's see what we have here. Uh so uh I Want to get into the tables? But you know we'll start with these tables first because then I can just look at the overall categories here. Uh, All right. so Fuel Oil? Wow Of 19.8 percent here going into the winter? Uh, these are this is October seasonally adjusted change for the prior month. So you've still got these crazy moves and energy here, right? Uh and again. Look at this food away from home. Number: 0.9 That's remarkable. That's really, really high. So you're seeing again. Restaurant inflation. Energy inflation. Uh, New vehicles? How are new vehicles still moving up at 4.8 percent annualized? But look at that plummet in used vehicles? Let's go. That's good. Negative: 2.4 percent I Was talking to some equipment uh sellers yesterday and they were talking about how it feels like in this last quarter we hit a wall with equipment sales and price drops are coming. Wow, Shelter comes in at Point Eight. Yikes. Yikes. Uh, that's that's quite High That's quite high. Point Eight on on shelter. Uh, I mean we were expecting that to stay flat. Uh, that is the market like Banks and stuff. We're expecting that to stay flat at point Seven percent. and uh, coming in at 0.8 is pretty high. This is the first negative that we've had here on. Um, Uh, Healthcare Medical Care Services Look at that. Minus 0.6 This is really good though about Core, It really shows you that it's it's it's rental and shelter inflation that is slowing down. Let's go ahead. I'm going to go ahead and pull up a more detail chart. Remember That uh, a lot of this has has to do with uh uh. Well, we. well let me put it this way. we still have a December meeting to go or a December CPI report to go right? This is a really great sign, but we've got to get the December meeting done uh or the December CPI report in right before the FED actually makes the decision. for inflation in uh or for rates rather in December Uh, we're expecting it. Looks like that's right now on a 75 uh basis, point hike or or actually falling. Uh, so they're We've got downgrades right now on that. Uh you. it's a oh my gosh, look at. uh, look at some of the market moves, this is crazy and then I Want to get into that detailed chart but uh, look at this explosion here. Uh Tesla All of a sudden, up 3.6 the Nasdaq's up 3.6 Coinbase is up nine percent Bitcoins up 10 almost 10 percent. Look at Bitcoin Run to the the the old FIB line that we had here at 17.5 Uh, this is. uh, this is quite remarkable. Let's see here. Uh, look at the after hours open door even up ten percent like gosh, Uh, only a couple things read here. uh like Dwac. Oh geez. All right, let's go to the actual Uh breakdown here of the categories. it it really I mean shelter made up 50 of the hike here. 50 uh Uh All right. so let's see what we have. Uh I don't really care so much about the individual food items right now I Want to look here. Food away from home? What? What is the part that really went dirty here? Well, let's get our column here correct. So uh, the we want to look at the seasonally adjusted which is the rightmost column and then if we wanted to look at the unseasonally adjusted, we could look at the third column. Uh, but we'll mostly probably look at the last column here. All right, seasonally adjusted Food Service Meals and snacks 1.1 percent. Uh. food and employee sites in schools 3.8 So it looks like really food service. So basically again, restaurants explosive here. Wow. Vending machines really getting expensive as well as uh, schools and employee sites? All right. Well, we saw Facebook change their dinner schedule to try to avoid how much people are eating. Uh, try to save some costs. They're gosh. they're really cost cutting out, All right. So window coverings up half percent. Look at how many minuses we're actually getting here. This is really good household furnishings and supplies. Down point: two percent. That's two point four percent annualized. Remember, you multiply by 12 to get an annualized figure. You do not get exponents involved into this. I Feel like I Have to have that debate every time in the comments: Laundry equipment. Look at that equipment. The equipment sector going down 7.9 of laundry equipment? That's insane. Uh, major appliances Down point: One: Appliances in general. Down point: Five That would include like coffee machines versus just like dishwashers and larger things, right? Furniture and bedding? Down: Uh. 1.2 percent of the linen Linens Uh, up 1.9 So you get a little bit of flex here. Uh, Window coverings. Floor coverings good. Starting to see that construction that residential investment sector kind of slow down a little bit. Good tools Outdoor Equipment Point: Four percent tools and Hardware a little bit of a pop here. A little bit to the upside: Housekeeping supplies: It's a little rich as well. Uh, but look at this. You're getting some negatives over here. Negative point: Seven on apparel: Uh. men's and boys apparel 0.6 men's suits uh two percent of the downside: Shirts and sweaters 2.4 uh women outerwear down 3.8 percent You're seeing some decent negatives. Uh, there are some positives as well as here: men's pants underwear for women underwear for women getting more expensive uh infant toddler's apparel going down very good I was using purple. Uh, look at this. This is all negative here. Everything's negative in this sector. Right here. Everything is negative. That's great. I'm very surprised that new vehicles are still going up, but you see that they're actually going up at a lower rate. Here you're at uh 0.4 as opposed to the 0.8 or 0.7 used cars and trucks. Nice plummet. Really good plummet here. That's great. Uh, you've got Medical Care Commodities zero Recreation Video equipment going down. okay, audio equipment going up. I mean some of these individual levels going up don't matter so much because their weight is like so nominal. This is the weighting, right? So it's like the weight for audio equipment is only 0.07 whereas if you go over here in, the wait for used cars is 3.8 or new cars is four right? and then they group it together. So uh, the the weightings are relatively important. so if you see some certain numbers that stand out, it's not that big of a deal. Uh, but I mean look at that. look at all this negative. This is a lot. I mean this is really what we've been waiting for. It's just some real nag, nag nag. uh and then really, the only thing left is that, uh, that stupid, uh, rental inflation. Wow. yields on treasuries down like point two percent I Knew it I knew they would freaking plummet today. Uh, well, on a Miss I'm like it's gonna be a huge drop in Treasure yields uh uh. But I mean that's good for stock. So computer software and accessories, uh, smartphones. Look at that. This is the problem you've got with Apple and less smartphone shipments down 5.9 month over month on smartphones. But unfortunately folks, sorry to say it, but alcohol is getting a little more expensive this last month. I Don't know what. Uh, you know, good thing. I I Basically never drink. Good thing tobacco's going down as well. Uh, well, actually not as well because it's the opposite. Tobacco's going down. I've never tried a cigarette, uh, personal. Goods Stationary supplies. Ooh, stationary, gift supplies. getting expenses, but they're so small ones they didn't even give that category waiting. Rent of Shelter: Oh, seasonally adjusted: 0.7 Uh, it looked like they were saying 0.8 on the primary or on the headline there. but we'll see other lodging away from home hotels, hotels helping you drag this up. Uh, lodging away from home. These are huge moves right here. Big big big moves. We put that together right here. That's about 1.5 on top of this. Rent of primary which comes in at 7.3 is awaiting. uh and then you've got owner's equivalent rent here. Oh look, owner's equivalent rent actually came down a little bit on the seasonal. That's good, but still very, very high. I Don't think these other things matter so much. Uh, this is a great opportunity by the way, for for house hack. this is a great time for you to hop in and make sure you are an investor in househack if you're accredited. uh, and of course, check out the programs and building your wealth. With that. Black Friday Coupon code linked down below. it's 60 off of 60 off. It's the biggest coupon code we've ever done. Pet Services Uh, 0.7 A little bit to the upside here. Uh, take a peek. Also, what the suits are saying right now: Uh Deutsche Bank Not to overemphasize the point three increase he points out. we've seen that before. Well, of course we have, but we're looking at inflection points. Why do you gotta be a Debbie Downer you jerk. Uh, let's see knee-trick reaction at Treasuries. Market The market paired expectations for the terminal rate for the Federal Reserves hiking to just under five percent now. Whoa, that's a good day. Uh. admission to sporting events down a little bit. What else? Admissions in general of delivery services? uh, down 1.5 percent. Uh has a smaller weight though than postage. Postage running up here and postage overall up a little bit and getting to the end of the chart here. Personal care services 0.4 Nominal apparel Services 1.4 Okay, whatever. So uh, this is very good. Uh I mean a very good decline. The Uh. The expectations that I had yesterday I wrote down uh, somewhere. Well, these these were the market expectations of inflation, right? Uh, and then we wrote my expectations down right here. and I I I'm honestly like personally, blown away because nobody was was coming in with these these numbers. These expectations I mean look at the banks. Uh, all of the banks. Oh you did have. You did actually have a couple banks wait CPI month? Oh no no CPI month. None of the banks came in at a CPI month? over month of 0.4 They were all point five point, six point seven. so you could see that pessimism there. of course some. We had some point fours, but uh uh yeah. I'm a little bit blown away that uh, that what I wrote down is exactly what we got. Uh, and then Core actually came in at point three for Core and then Core headline, uh, year over year came in at 6.3 It's really, really cool. So uh, now the JPMorgan analyst suggested that we had a 20 chance of coming in at 7.7 and they suggested the S P 500 could move by this by about two and a half to three percent and it appears the S P is up three percent. Wow. The market is not rigged at all. Fees literally up three percent. Tesla's up five percent coinbase up eight. Still got a big overhang though on the on the crypto space here. uh Robin Hood up about six percent right now. Trade desk popping eight percent on this. uh, this news here I mean everybody. Everybody was waiting for the inflation numbers you know and you have to say it just makes sense. Like why why would you buy if you're an institution right before the CPI release? I mean all you're doing is saying uh uh to to your investors. you're you're gambling right? So if you have a fund you're like required to wait for the CPI numbers. uh and then you just sit here and buy. It's crazy. Uh, someone here says don't we always spend less right before the holidays. you know it's not. So this is not a spending report this is this has really little to do with consumer spending. Uh, it has to do with pricing. uh, set by by stores Now sure pricing could could be. it could inflict down. uh if spending is is very very soft, but it'd be a little I Feel like it would be odd to see such rapid and quick repricing at retail. although it could be wrong about that. Uh, but I See what you're saying? It's like you save money in October So that way you uh uh, you know, have money for the holidays or something like that I you know. and last year was so interesting. Uh uh. so anyway wow, this is. uh, this is really good. It's really really good. So congratulations everyone I'm very very very shocked. Uh and um yeah. Congrats! This is great I'm gonna change the title now. All right goodbye everyone. Use the profits you're making today on the courses. Sixty percent off and I'm adding so much more value by filming almost every single day new lectures with all the courses. But if you're looking to start a business, uh, or just make more money, Elite Hustlers is for you. It's basically gonna have like a monthly boot camp aspect to it, which is really cool and uh, otherwise getting to zero. The millionaire Real estate investing is probably the most popular right now, followed by stocks and Psych. All right, See ya I Love you all Bye.