China’s Evergrande Collapse: With Patrick Boyle

Of the regular stream, literally like 10 percent i should have - i should have gone for like something china is collapsing. Huge news, kathy wood just took a now yeah, okay, look. We started the stream right now and then i'll cut off the first three minutes. We just pretend like we haven't, talked yeah.

I can edit it out, go home enough to keep quiet about this exactly so who the 243 people in the chat right now. Just pretend like we just started: okay, uh, unthinkable, bombshell, okay, hey patrick! How are you uh glad to have you in the stream? I i i see you took some time off from preparing for your fight with deonte wilder, which is upcoming. In october, you lost some you're cutting weight for the fight with the fight, but how are you man doing well doing? Well? We spoke about it earlier, but i mean your production quality has taken a few notches up looks phenomenal. Audio sounds great, looks way better than ever.

It's it's always a struggle. Yeah tell me about it, so what the hell is going on uh. Obviously you know i'm a huge fan of china and communism. So obviously i was sad to hear about the latest news, but can you explain to my audience and myself since i'm included in the people who don't understand what the hell is going on with evergrand? What's the story with this, it's a tough story to understand because it's kind of breaking news right.

Well, it's it's been breaking news for a little while, but it uh it's very hard to know what'll happen, but essentially we've got evergrant, which is the it's. The second largest uh real estate developer in china, and that means that they're absolutely huge, i think they hot they employ some like 200 000 sort of full-time employees, and i think 1.3 million sort of builders you know like who are kind of hired on a you Know ongoing basis, so it's a massive massive company they've got about 310 billion dollars worth of debt and it would appear that they cannot repay that now. They've did this story to a certain extent started about a year ago, when uh the the chinese communist party um, you know, passed some new rules, uh trying to de-leverage the the real estate sector and it uh appears to have worked, maybe a little bit too well And there's kind of an ongoing um sort of issue. I i'm not an expert by any means on emerging markets, but you know: there's a guy who's well worth uh.

Listening to named michael pettis he's a an american economist who is based in china and um. Essentially, he he uh explains that the one of the biggest problems in china is that you know they do all of this uh what you might call mal investment, just sort of bad investment, or they build things that don't make an awful lot of sense. Like you'll you'll hear americans saying: oh look, the chinese have built all of these super fast trains and we haven't built any, but they they don't realize it doesn't necessarily make sense to build the ones that they built. They'll have like a super fast train.

That's going out into farmland where no one needs to necessarily go at 200 miles per hour, and so it's the same story with the with the empty series right, patrick, the ghost yes yeah and - and you know it's it's kind of an interesting. The empty cities thing is something that has confused me for uh for probably 20 years um there's a friend of mine, hugh hendry. He has a really good youtube channel and he was a very famous hedge fund manager. One of the guys who called the the credit crunch back in 2007-2008 - and he at the time, was all over youtube um, with uh sort of a handheld video camera of all of these empty, empty buildings all over china.
And he said you know this is a disaster. How is this going to work, but then, strangely enough, it seemed to kind of you know they sort of held out long enough and people moved to those areas and whatever, but there still is just this general problem. If there's a lot of uh sort of borrowing and bad investment that occurs in china and so evergrande is an example of this, and you would think that, typically, when a company borrows a lot of money or we'll say just if a company invests in a project That kind of goes to zero. It's a it's a bad project, uh that that would be uh, something that's sort of expensed on the accounts, but instead it would appear in china that they tend to capitalize these losses.

So all of these businesses - you see all of this growth, but it's just a growth in in debt. They just borrow more and more money, basically until they can't anymore. So we see this issue of um sort of huge leverage at companies like this they're told that they have to de-lever, and you would look at the the balance sheet and you see a huge amount of inventory right because that's where sort of bad investment, these empty Buildings that you're, showing right now that that's where they would show was on the balance sheet of these companies, and so when the government then tells them they have to de-leverage uh. The answer is to sell those buildings but of course, they're they're, not really sellable.

You know, and actually another one that might amuse you a bit is that you know uh. Everground are often a bunch of other businesses, including the ev business. You know because i think, whenever, whenever things are going wrong, it's good to announce an eevee startup and i think they raised about 3 billion for an ev company, not sure that there's any evs. But you know if in doubt, if you shout trevor nicola shout out to driver if in doubt hydrogen spout um so is this uh, so is.

Is this a systemic failure? Well, it's huge right. Like i mean there are estimates that there could be 220 billion dollars worth of um sort of valueless assets on the books of of everground right. So if you know a lot, there's a few people in i put up a video yesterday kind of explaining the situation and one person got very angry in there because, because i sort of said that the slightly click-baity headline was, is this china's lehman brothers moment? And that's that's! Basically what a lot of the press are saying like if you go on cnn they're, calling this china's lehman um, you know so so we've got this. There's definitely um a huge hole in evergrand and then the question is what happens to it and you would say: well, you know who who has lent to them, and there are hundreds of financial institutions that appear to have lent to them.
An awful lot of them are chinese. Financial institutions that are, you know, can be viewed as sort of quasi governmental, uh businesses. You know so it's kind of a funny thing like that. The the chinese communist party - they don't want to be seen to do what the americans did and sort of reward failure and bail out uh.

You know a failed real estate company and in many ways they're. They are trying to de-leverage the economy somewhat and um, but the question is you know in in a country like china, essentially the the government is going to decide who eats this loss is kind of uh. You know a good way of thinking about. If i have to tell you from on a serious note, i absolutely welcome you to the fire in the thumbnail community.

This has been a long time coming. You have joined the the dark force. I i just copied the thumbnails off of your your uh website and i just changed exactly just the mere fact you called it. The website says everything about you for the 600 people.

By the way we tripled our audience. Since we started talking about evergren 600 people right now, shout out to you thank you for for stopping by if you haven't yet, i would assume that would be, because you're living under a rock patrick bald's channel is on the screen right now. It's called patrick boyle. It's one of the most underrated channels, if you're interested in any sort of finance stock market completely no, no fluff from a professional.

So please send payment to paypal, patrick for that now, jokes aside! So do you think they will? Obviously i heard some rumors that they're trying to get a bailout right, patrick well, that that is the thing, but even that that was kind of there was a big issue. I think it was about. A year ago there was this sort of leaked letter uh to to the press that that they had approached the government for a bailout uh. They claimed that that was a a forged letter.

They claimed that that's, not real, but it possibly was real and um. You know the issue is: i think that that the government really does not want to bail them out. I think they want to make an example of them. It's very interesting.

I was speaking to a friend of mine, who runs probably one of the top emerging market funds and he was basically saying that a lot of people are misunderstanding: china right now, because they look at china and they say well, there's been all these difficulties before and China always pulls through it, you know, but he argues that that was a different china. This is zee's. China. Z is moving much tor more towards mao's china.
You know this is this is not modernizing china. Z doesn't know much about business, doesn't care much about business. He cares about sort of big government and running the country and we've kind of seen that even in the sort of attacks on the tech industry - and we see you know - i was reading the other day - a bike dance, the the company that owns uh. What is it called tick? Tock uh.

You know that the government placed one board member on the board. Now there's three board members. One of them is a a government person. Now you know this is the direction that china is moving in.

So it's not real. They kind of upset the markets a while ago. They sort of over did it maybe on their kind of uh, knocking markets back and then you see sort of a lot of government officials trying to calm down foreign, invest and say no, no, it will be fine. My friend argues that it possibly won't be fine like that that their goal is not uh is not for you to generate wealth by investing in china, so yeah.

So obviously you know my position on this. I'm much closer to your friend's opinions than certain other investors, including charlie munger, was uh, probably was the most high profile guy on the on the other end of the scale. What did he say? I didn't hear that he's advocating for the second position, which you just mentioned, which is basically uh yeah. You just you're too western to understand this hybrid culture, and this is all good, and i think that the i have a unique perspective, because i've seen what communism does and um.

The main conclusion for me was that the system is uh. I keep coming back to that story about you, know the scorpion and the tortoise. It's the same thing. They can't help themselves because losing control means they don't have a right to exist, means that that they would rather take the country down with them than well.

Even you see like the stepping on billionaires uh recently, you know like the stepping on a lot of the tech companies. You know why are they doing them? Some of it is just a kind of a power consolidation like you can't allow these guys to get too important and too wealthy, and i even i have some friends who are chinese, who are wealthy chinese people, and they tell me that the situation is difficult. There right now for for business owners - and you know the the the thing is, there's a few interesting ways to look at this because actually, with regard to your uh, beautifully filmed video that you put up from your car yesterday, amazing quality right production - that's where you Installed all those new 50 000 studio, yeah the iron man in the back, you like the iron man. Well, the the thing: that's in you know the goal isn't to sort of scare monger in this.
You know, because you know, there's always things that can go wrong in markets and for many people, they're, probably not uh. You know not necessarily that heavily invested in china. If we try and look at a sort of a positive angle on it or a way that it could not be awful like the way it could not be a lehman brothers moment is just that. The real estate industry is just huge, huge, huge in china and a lot of people don't like when you think about how big the the real estate industry in china is.

I i saw a statistic yesterday that in the in in three years china used more concrete than the united states used in the 20th century. It's a big building industry right, it's huge! It employs a ton of people. It equally draws in resources from all over the world. Right like concrete, is going in.

Steel is going in copper all of this stuff. You know so um, there's there's it might be difficult for for z to hold power. Should that industry collapse you know. So you know to to kind of walk back from the kind of click baity lehman thing.

You know the the real question is, and the real thing we have to look at is just how will this end? But equally a question? Is you know for for investors? You know, should you be invested in china and and many people are invested in china without really knowing that they are because you know you invest in certain index products. In fact, i was reading the other day. You know if you look at esg funds. Esg funds are very heavily invested in china, in particular in sort of chinese tech, and things like that, because that sort of appears to take many of those sort of esg boxes - uh, not necessarily the g1 and the e1 is a bit questionable as well.

But you know, patrick, do you think in all honesty, we're talking about uh? It's it's a multi-billion dollar company uh i mean before the collapse it's. It was like a 50 billion dollar company 60 billion dollar company yeah um. Can the chinese government afford not to bail them out and still with the amount of jobs that will be lost the the instability the chaos? Well? I think it's interesting because also you've got to look at like the the real estate sector in china in general, has kind of slowed down over the last little while just because they built an awful lot and there's a lot of huge, huge, huge uh. You know real estate businesses over there um it's hard to know how it'll work out, because you know the biggest lever that the government has is that the the government is uh to a certain extent.

They control a lot of the banks and financial institutions in china. That have lent to everground, so they can restructure that in a way that sort of uh, you know kind of wipes out will say the the wealth of the equity holders in evergrand and uh. You know, may you know that they could they could restructure in a way that there's not a collapse, but there's not a bailout, and you know in many ways like when we look at lehman, failing and and then the bailout a few weeks later of all the Other banks through aig um, you know the u.s government officials were moving very fast. Don't forget the bonuses, the bailout and the bonuses yeah? Well, it's important to get a bonus.
You know um, but but um you know the the government. They were moving so fast at the time and they they they probably they didn't know what was happening or what to do the chinese come. This is a a slow unfolding disaster, like this story has been going on for about a year and and they've learned from the lessons of what happened in the or hopefully, they've learned, they've. Seen the example of what happened in the united states.

That uh, i don't know 13 years ago, and so you know you you've got to imagine that that regulators and uh uh governments around the world have possibly come up with plans that are a little bit more sophisticated than what was done over a weekend. Uh back in 2008., so i'm still trying to figure out why this happened. Is this just a series of unfortunate decisions, uh, basically grandiose plans with no business logic like what led to this, because not every day you see a company of this magnitude just implodes like this overnight. Well, it's interesting because if you look at the growth of the company, you know you see you see this, this growth, but a lot of it.

You you see this growth and growth and growth in inventories. It's basically assets and liabilities growing together and more and more debt been taken on because normally you would look at this and you would say well: they've got a huge amount of of assets. Their assets are greater than their liabilities. They've never had they've, never lost money.

I don't believe they've ever had a losing quarter right. So how is a company whose assets are greater than their liabilities? That's never had a losing quarter, possibly bankrupt, and the answer is because a lot of the wins were fake. You know that they didn't really happen. You know like they, they built these things and you know people i i've never been to china.

But friends who visited tell me that you can go around and see these um. You know bridges to nowhere everywhere and, and this is sort of uh, possibly that coming home to ruth. You know that you have this. This huge build out of stuff that is needed.

You know the the it's just uh, you know it really is that that you're able to cover up this um if a company is growing very fast or appears to be growing very fast, they can borrow a lot to cover it up. But that's essentially a ponzi scheme right where you've got these huge losses there and we don't talk about those and you keep borrowing money and you you keep everything going, but you know we then re. There always reaches a point where uh, where, where the the problem uh, you know the the real. Actually i sent you an article uh yesterday yep it was a michael pettis, but that the guy was talking about and he he describes.
He has a term. I think it comes from the economist goldberg that he calls the bezel. You know taken from the world embezzlement right and his idea is um. You know he kind of argues that we'll say if you have a fraud like let's take an embezzlement or a fraud like the madoff scheme right, there was a point right before the fraud was discovered where the the fraudster is living large, because they've got the money And the person whose money they've got is living large because they think they've got their money in the bank and so there's sort of this expansion.

This this economic boom that comes from this fraud and then eventually someone one of the two parties doesn't have that asset and you you've sort of been uh. I don't know living on on uh, an energy that you don't have. You know you everyone's been living beyond their means. Possibly is it's like having a hundreds of thousands of millions in your trading account right and you know, okay, i can spend it.

I have the money and then you press the button, withdraw and then just says yeah. Oh, that's because for the last few years you've been buying nice cars eating out having a good time because you're rich and then when it goes time to to pull the money out, it's not there and so to a certain extent, you can see booms that are Just based upon that, you know they're, based on this wealth, illusion, whether where there is no true wealth actually sitting there uh that's a made of effect, essentially as as you mentioned. So we have a question here from super chat and money for coffee. Did the money from the 2008 bailout get paid back to the government? I don't think so.

I i don't believe so. No i mean i, i i'm not an expert on how how that worked. Its way out, they gave most of it out as as bonuses which we were talking about right now. Exactly i mean what doesn't kill you gives you a bonus.

Remember the aig bonuses in the 2008. Well, it's it's crazy. Yeah i mean it. That was a crazy time now, so basically somebody's saying evergrand is like wirecard.

I don't think it's the same story. To be honest, it's it's wire card would be would be like a flat out fraud. Making up that doesn't exist. Evergreen would seem to be more like exaggerating the value of things you've actually have in your inventory or or projects yeah.

It seems to be a distant cousin of the workers. Yeah i mean there's there's something fraudulent about having assets on your balance sheet. That you know are worthless um, but you know - and this is even the issue it relates to um. You know this idea around uh.

Well, the the problem with the vis. You know the um what and so on that an awful lot of americans and westerners look at this stuff and they think they're investing in in uh. They think they own a share in a chinese company and they don't. But even you know, these companies are not necessarily meeting the accounting standards that they're not being audited the way an american company would be, and you know it it's an interesting problem in the world of finance because it relates to you know what, when you have a Regulated industry like the financial industry, is very regulated and you you have all of this auditing and so on, of of the accounts of companies and so on, and what happens is that that investors get used to that? You know you look at the way.
Uh, a kind of um you look at the way a good american company works and how you get treated fairly as a shareholder and so on. And then what happens? Is you think that that's the way the world of investing works and we'll say you know you go into things like international? Investing you go into things like crypto, you go we'll say even you uh you, you do like spread betting or enter the world of derivatives, and you think you have the same protections that you do in a regulated financial product and you just don't, and it's there's Almost a problem that that the high level of regulation almost builds a level of comfort in people that they then go into this unregulated space and they're surprised when it doesn't work the way they thought it would barney's saying the wonders of accounting magic, which is, i Think would be the best comment uh so far about this topic. Uh accounting magic is pretty. Much is enron.

If you know a little bit about the enron story, this is accounting magic uh, although enron was a little bit different. If you're familiar with the story, i mean you do obviously not you patrick i'm in the audience shout out to the 900 people in the stream right now with no thumbnail clickbait, oh, my goodness uh so enron was basically, i called gordon johnson, the nadia combination of Uh of financial gymnasts, but i mean enron - was the they wrote the book about it. Essentially, they would create these special purpose entities, which was just it's just a subsidiary and they would throw all the liabilities in there to boost the profitability of projects, essentially create this false, a presentation of success and then so this. But this is a different story.

I think again we're going deep into accounting, nerd land but yeah, but we're talking aside going like you, you've got sort of the the structure up there of kind of how ieee works, who don't know the the initials just for the audience. Spv means special purpose vehicle. It just means the subsidiary and wfoe means holy foreign owned entity again just a foreign subsidiary. It's just it's just pointless abbreviations that not needed.

Well, there's an interesting thing, though, when, when these things first appeared, you know they they kind of take it public and the initial investors read a prospectus right and they read the prospectus and it discloses all the risk and it shows them this company structure and so On and that's kind of the way sec regulation works like it's, the sec is all about disclosure and, as you know, if there's something awful in there as long as it's adequately disclosed in the prospectus and in the accounts, you know it's sort of uh you you Get what you bought. It can be the idea, but the problem is that once again, people get confused because we'll say if you invested when alibaba or one of these companies first went public by a vie. You see all of those disclosures. But you know it's been trading for a few years when you go in on your robin hood, app or whatever, and you kind of go alibaba that that might be a good company of chinese growth stock, i'll i'll, invest in that and there's no further disclaimers.
You know those things are all deep in a prospectus that that no one looks at after the ipo, and you know it's kind of an interesting thing. I think gary gensler had an argument where almost the the the names of these products should be changed like so. Instead of you know, when you go on like google finance and it describes alibaba and it'll say: alibaba is a technology company that uh, you know, runs auction platforms and the other in china. It's like thank you for telling me what alibaba is, but that's not what i'm buying i'm buying a you know, it should say.

Alibaba vie is, is a cayman shell company, with a contract with a company in china that you've heard of that may or may not transfer uh cash to to this uh this shell company and can be shut down at the will of the chinese government or any Or any specific regulator, but in china but er for me, the main thing that scares me about va is is is is kind of embedded into what you just described. I don't care about the cayman islands. I don't care offshore. It doesn't really scare me what i think people miss out on is the huge difference between property rights and contractual rights, which is inherently a different uh quality of asset that should be valued completely different and i'm sorry if it sounds like nerd talk, but i'll give You an example that kind of you know: oh no, that's not gon na make it sound as if i'm trying to you know, uh use high words just for no reason so imagine you want to buy a car, and somebody sells you, the car, you get the Deed for that specific car, you own that right, we just got demonetized anyways, so you own that car and so that car is worth whatever it's worth the the fair market value of that car.

I imagine the guy tells you hey. I have a contractual right that i'm allowed to buy this car, and now i have it in my position, so you can buy this contract off me that will allow you to buy this car someday from this dude and the the price of that contract is not Going to be the same as the price of that car because someday you might want to buy that car and the dude has really sold it and breached contract, which means you have to sue him and pay for litigation costs not get. The car lose all this energy and essentially it's a completely different asset class, which is worth significantly less than the property rate and to pay the same amount of price for a contractual right is for me, as somebody who went to law school, it's just like. I want to bang my hand against the wall and just smash it it just doesn't.
I don't understand why people can't see that, and i think against us specifically talk about it gary against said these are contractual rights. What are you doing? That's the problem, not the cayman islands yeah, no, no, but but the the thing is that in in a booming market, you know people look by all of this. Like you know, it was a big deal a number of years ago. I forget it might have been snap or one of those tech companies when they went public, they um they basically gave the public non-voting shares right now.

Normally, there's been a trend towards better and better corporate governance, and by that i just mean better treatment of shareholders, because essentially, if uh we'll take if you're running an oil drilling company - and you said we're issuing non-voting shares, people say keep them. You know. But when these tech companies that were really hot went public, they realized that they could pack all of this nonsense into the prospectus and sort of you know to say that we'll do what we want. You have no votes.

You know when, when facebook went public, like you know, mark zuckerberg was almost acting like you know, he'd just run it, however, he wanted and if he didn't want to make a profit, he wouldn't then get lost. You know, and you would think that that would be a difficult thing to take public and in in maybe you know in a post boom environment. That would be the case, but you know right now or in in in sort of frothy. Or what can i say in after a long bull market, people just uh? They don't worry, you know they kind of you know if you, if you think of like how the depression error mentality like if you speak to your grandparents or whatever, like the level of suspicion, they will have over certain kind of financial contracts, and it's because they've Seen them go wrong while we're we're in a period where no one's seen anything go wrong for a long time.

Oh yeah, breach of enforcing a breach of contract is as it's you it's. Basically, a choice between climbing mount everest naked with a broomstick up your butt or uh. No there's not a choice. This is it's it's the same as ip litigation, ip litigation breach of contract.

These are very, very hard lawsuits to win they're very costly. You don't recuperate your costs and 99 of the time unless the buyer like, if somebody sold it under you, the buyer, doesn't have to give it back. You should you'll get some money, it's probably not exactly the value of what you. So it's a completely convoluted process that it's a lose lose yeah so to compare that to owning a share in microsoft or facebook or google, whether you think it's evil or not.
It's it's a completely different asset class and yet within the jurisdiction, where um, where the rule of law has been really ironed out and where there's maybe good reason to believe you'll you'll be treated fairly because actually another point back to evergrand. Another actually very interesting point is it's it's a big problem for people in china, because, if you're in china, the only thing you can really invest in is real estate to to a reasonable extent. You know like they, they tend not to. They can't get their money out of the country.

There's you know, sort of what they call financial repression um. Where um, you know that they don't trust uh. The idea of investing in stocks - and things like that - probably quite rightly, and so the things they can invest in are all tied to real estate and evergrande has a wealth management arm, which, once again, is massive and basically regular. Chinese people will have put their savings into these sort of interest bearing products.

You know it looks like a bank account, but it's it's tied to you know the credit of evergrand and you know a lot of the protests that you're seeing on the news. Are these people, you know, they've put their savings in and these financial products uh, you know, could quite reasonably be be worth nothing and it's kind of down to what the government decides. You know it's almost uh, it's happening and i'm sure it's happening, but i had this conversation multiple times: it's not even about china, every single, because these kids haven't seen it yet. Every single company in the world can go to zero overnight and we've seen this happen.

I mean like when you see it, it's always shocking right, like i, i made a video i'd, know a week or two ago about billionaires who lost everything and because people don't realize you know all of these a lot of these very wealthy people that you see They're very wealthy because they own a company, you know and that company can go to zero or to you know, minus a rather large number and, and it happens, it happens frequently enough. You know, and even you know, there's great companies that that have either gone to xero or that have been so severely impaired that it's amazing to look at them and think like how was this? How is this once great company such a you know in the gutter? Now, but it does happen, people don't remember that these kids, but enron, was like the microsoft or the google of of of early early 2000s right. That was uh. That was a very widely held investment like between uh.

You know, enron, worldcom, all of those stocks. You know they were, they were widely held and even you know i'm from ireland um during the credit crunch in in ireland uh the banks basically went to zero and if you were an irish investor, you often invested in irish stocks, which were bank stocks and they They they evaporated and and in days you know what i mean like it wasn't uh there was no chance to get out. You know you remember there used to be the big five back in the day as far as the counting off and the the the biggest one of them all was arthur yeah and they went billy up because of enron. Yeah i mean that's yeah we've seen it happen, i mean these kids.
They don't think that they think all this is a safe bet. There's no safe bets. You never know what's under the hood yeah. Never though somebody says ge was amazing.

Forever yeah, i mean, if you think that was one of the first uh, that that was the only uh up until they got thrown out of the dow. It was the only stock that was in the dow that had been there since inception. You know like a a an amazing company, you know uh. In fact it was uh.

I didn't all of uh tesla's ip go to. I think it was westinghouse which became uh ge, so yeah, so we're nearing 1 000 viewers on the stream on the rapid pace, which is insane with no clickbait. It's just your name is clickbait, patrick. I don't know what does it make? You feel this youtube.

You know they think i either have a tyson fury here or agent 47 and they just click. Have you had a chance to look at agent 47 since we since uh, you haven't? No, i i i have i get. I get quite a few comments on my my channel now, but you stopped doing the the red tide. That's a the look.

Isn't the same, so i think we're just about to wrap up. I didn't want to keep you on too long about this uh. I do want to ask you a few questions. Somebody says your face is clickbait.

I don't know if this is an insult or a compliment. To be honest, i'm not even being cynical. Is this a? Is this a compliment? I hope it's a compliment. Um, we have here a five dollar donation from brian p um.

What is the possibility and comes back yeah? I don't think that it's long, it's very low. It's competing with blockbuster. It's either that or blockbuster it could become the next meme stock. You know it uh.

There's there's no reason not is that. Is there a liquidation entity that still exists for enron? Probably there is somewhere some something right. These things usually take like two decades. They often do because i even think there might be a bit of lehman still kicking around like i, i think, uh he beat a lehman kick around.

I visualize everything you say um, so uh is okay, so uh patrick book. He just misspelled your name. Can you please do a hitman, let's play stream, i don't see, i think, there's more likelihood that enron comes back then this is happening. I don't.

I don't see it happening um. So i do want to ask you one thing before you leave so with everything we've seen in the past 10 years. As far as you know, we've seen somebody just mentioned: theranos uh nicola was in the same category as terenos in my book and there's nothing. I i mean i went to war with these guys, i'm not afraid to say i think it's a it's a complete scam and don't like niko, so nikola theranos, we've seen what happened with the lord's sound for some reason, i'm very deep in the eevee about this, But i mean now it's ev, but before that it was medical right, so how much money that would be a really good study to do how much money is laying around in these bubbles that, as you mentioned, that really have nothing under the hood i mean now With china, you know when you talk about some of those companies, like you know, what's it called um teranos is kind of a great example uh, but but there's many of them, you know we work as well was a good example of this.
Of you know they're sort of fake tech stocks, you know what i mean where they kind of they take on all the magic of silicon valley and the the kind of big promises and whatever um. I have to call you out on this because you're talking about two different things, so she is elizabeth holmes and terenos was a straight-up fraud that didn't work so the other dude was. It was a piece of douchebag, but he just over hyped and over exaggerated. I don't think he defrauded anybody.

Sorry if i, if i said fraud, i didn't necessarily mean that, but there's there's a lot of companies that they've worked out like that. You can sort of brand yourself as a silicon valley, tech, kind of company and get this huge valuation and sort of sell everything on dreams, and you know many of these companies. These non-tech tech companies like wirecard as well like it wasn't a tech company. You know um that there's just a huge list of them where they sort of - i don't know like there'll, be someone in like the brick industry and they're like, but we make our bricks in silicon valley.

So you think that the this uh ease of getting money for these tech dream stocks is indicative of higher inflationary times coming because it seems like there's more money looking for a place to be parked, it's getting easier than 10 years ago to to get this empty Money, it's very interesting because i think it's just certain sectors, because it's even it's an interesting thing like when people even say with all this money sloshing around. Like that's a term you'll hear a lot in the current environment, but the money is sloshing for some people and really not for others and and and the same goes for businesses. You know like if um i'm in texas at the moment and if you have a really great idea for a drilling equipment or something like that, you don't find money sloshing around nearly as much as if you have like some. You know sort of uh nonsense.

Startup idea, you know it's it's uh. You know people are excited about kind of green tech technology in general um. You know sort of financial innovation things like that, but there's many sort of older, more boring businesses that definitely don't see the the sort of sloshing of money that everyone talks about. Somebody says when they wear the steve jobs, turtleneck yeah, that one of those for one of my videos i kind of i'm gon na - did you do that? No, i didn't see it.
Oh, she had some influential people involved with it with fairness. She had some legitimately powerful people who, you don't think are chumps involved in this company. They were big names, but they knew nothing about the industry. She was in or about technology.

You know, there's people like henry kissinger and you kind of you know his big name but he's not necessarily a big he's, not peter thiel. You know what i mean and he's not like a sort of senior person with it he's not like a you know, a senior biologist who would understand how this stuff works, like that, he she had a bunch of kind of big kind of military and uh government. Somebody just said that yeah yeah she should she did, but you know what's gon na happen now it's the same thing every time, these guys scam they go to court and then the lawyer screamed well, he was or she or he was an optimist. He was a entrepreneur with dreams and he failed and every time it's the same argument, he was just an optimist to her credit by the way she never enjoyed the scent of that money.

No, but but uh. You know i. I think the thing that's interesting about because even like, why are the press so obsessed? And it's like because it's such a mad story, you know like if, if she had taken all the money and uh gone crazy with uh, you know doing all sorts of crazy stuff, it's more understandable, but i think actually it's sort of the the craziness of the Story, it's kind of you know i may they just go the charles ponzi documentary and it's a similar thing where you look at it. What was he thinking? You know like that? That's the thing: that's so mad, like you kind of go, he he could have run off with it, but he didn't he just kind of liked being a big shot and he seemed mad enough to think he could make it work.

You know and and the same story made the phone worked out easy. Do you by the way, is this your most successful video? To date, the ponzi video? It is yeah yeah, it's kind of a it's one of my older videos, but it it did really well yeah, and you put yourself on the thumbnail with the little hat, which was a brilliant decision. So so somebody says i missed the first 40 minutes. What did they miss? I love these comments.

Patrick was doing a live stream of a of hitman yeah and tom took his shirt off. Well, i did to my credit before we went live luckily, i did and for all the wrong reasons anyways. This is a good time for us, i think, to end. So i'm just going to thank patrick again.
I think, there's a great deal of information on his channel. If you haven't checked it out yet patrick boyle is the name. Finance is the game. You can go ahead and subscribe to this channel if you're not yet it's a probably one of the smartest things you can do if you want to learn about finance and his quality of production has taken a step up for you, so the youtube money, the youtube Money is getting put to good use, but patrick i just want to thank you for coming over today.

I was really not educated about evergrand or anything that happened is specifically even more about the macro stuff that you talked about here, so this was really fascinating. I think the comments are all like they're all saying you're a piece of, but i mean it's: okay, you're the most liked guest. Ever they absolutely love you, so this agent will return most likely um, i'm trying to get patrick to do a full-time podcast with me, which he's kind of reluctant on doing, but i'm gon na i'm gon na get him uh. So thank you.

Everybody! Thank you for the almost 1 000 people in the chat. Thank you for flying emu for becoming a channel member, appreciate it um. This was an absolute blast and the the beauty of the stream is we're going to keep them hanging. You know they want more we're.

Just going to we're going to michael jordan, this we're going to retire right at the peak of this um somebody says real susan boyle, the does it mean i don't even who doesn't boyle she she's a a wonderful singer. Oh, is this one of those the got talent, singers yeah? It's the uh, okay yeah next podcast in five minutes, i don't think so. Maybe not mine, uh liam zack just joined right on time, we're about to get up uh! Thank you. Everybody! Thank you.

Patrick! Have a great weekend, relax uh, go watch my ironman, video and and just make sure you do subscribe to patrick um you're gon na. Thank me. Thank you. Everybody we'll see you in five minutes on the next stream.


By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

26 thoughts on “China’s evergrande collapse analysis: with patrick boyle”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Armchairwoman Mao says:

    Don't worry, the local banks involved will be bailed out by the government because THAT'S how the CCP works, but anyone holding bonds from foreign banks , I offer my condolences to you.

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars bitmau5 says:

    I don't know how I missed this video! I ♥ Capitalist China Communist Party (CCCP) discussions, especially when Patrick is involved

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Robert Moreno says:

    I tend to believe that the worst is yet to come… They may find a way to stabilize the negative effects of their massive Ponzi Scheme short term however given the historical record of poor building practices due to poor regulation to expedite growth and a pure lack of ethics and integrity (new buildings have been seen to be severely deteriorating in just 3 years) Their assets may be a facade and a ticking time clock to a degrading, diminishing inventory of secure and quality bankrupt buildings.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Logos Nomos says:

    Most CCP run corporations are Ponzi schemes what benefit the top echelons. Begging the CCP to help something that the CCP themselves benefited the most to help is incredibly ironic. Yet, it is no surprise if you are brainwashed into believing that the government (CCP) is the savior for all your problems. They create the problem and are therefore expected to be the solution.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TittyTittyBangBang says:

    This guy is smoking something if he really believes the US markets are regulated 🤣!

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars WillN2Go1 says:

    Enron always stank. Suddenly old women in California were dying because their power was being cut? No storm, no earthquake, no wild fire. It seemed really odd that as Enron succeeded there were more and more frequent power outages anywhere they did business. Even before the first news report that Enron was toxic, as soon as you heard about Enron it seemed toxic. (A mini Enron was the Texas storm that raised everyone's natural gas bill 10x – it just seemed like a complete scam.) It would be like as Tesla made more EVs 10% of ICE cars each week suddenly started going off the road, into trees, engines burning up.

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dee says:

    The problem with China Corp, they are never transparent. All of them if not most have lofty promises that are too-good to be true

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Snake Handler says:

    … "They would rather take the country down with them…" how is that argument different from one party in the us who realizes that they are loosing the next elections? would be perfect to set up the other party for a economic timebomb that ruins things for them?

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars 1qaz says:

    I love both Patrick and Tom so much, they know so much, always happy to learn from them!

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Janusz Kurahenowski says:

    I'd watch you both as a podcast, you are very different and therefore very entertaining

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kenny Rogers says:

    Found both of you this past week … outstanding – thanks fellas. Apes Together Strong. 👩‍🚀🔜🚀🌔

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hamza Riazuddin says:

    interesting story – any one know of big investors or analysts who have put out a detailed paper on Evergrande ?

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars notbohnhere butcantleave says:

    So they’ve been talking about these ghost cities for like five years now how is this a big surprise?

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Malus Darkblade says:

    The brokerages and investment banks break their fiduciary duties if they do not inform retail equity investors that there is a company prospectus.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Malus Darkblade says:

    I suppose the auditors of Evergrade knew nothing.
    All the 'assets' were real because the directors said they where real, along with their valuations of the assets. 😂😂😂 what a joke society.

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars James L says:

    Tom, when you explain the difference between property rights and contractual rights, you're giving a great argument for decentralized finance and smart contracts. In many cases, we have the technology to make contractual rights and property rights indistinguishable.

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Boonedock Journeyman says:

    Pettis? Your kidding? Oh man you worked so hard for credibility and now you tie your neck to an aging communist who just will not admit that the speeding bus is going to hit him?

    Very, very sad to see you tie yourself to an idiot. IT’S NOT A CLASS WAR. What the hell is rotten in your head?

    You were doing so well this year. Now, you’re exposed as a shallow, failed British whanker.

    The World is not about left/right, pinko/reactionary, etc., etc.

    Very sad.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Daniel Brown says:

    Point of clarification and apologies if this is discussed in the comments (I didnt read all of them). While not all banks repaid TARP funds, I do believe the treasury ended up recording a profit from that program in aggregate.

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris Loy says:

    This Patrick Boyle guy is awesome. Just subbed to him, great interview Tom. Looks like it might be the spark for a correction (finally!)

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Riyad Kalla says:

    ROFL "as you know, I'm a huge fan of China… and communism."

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Eric O. says:

    Great interview Tom! You're becoming a good interviewer and you're not interrupting your guests anymore. Thanks Tom and Patrick!

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jsmal jx says:

    Pat Boyle is the voice of reason in an era of tik tok investors and fake guru's

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gustav Derkits says:

    According to some reports, the government made 20% on the AIG bailout. Earlier the banks that bailed out LTCM also made a profit. In some of these significant cases, the problem was with the timing, not the long term position. Keynes said that the market can remain irrational longer than you can hold your position.

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gustav Derkits says:

    Michael Pettis wrote a piece in which he resurrected the word “bezzle”, invented in the 1950’s by John Galbraith to describe the hidden embezzlement that only becomes visible like the wrecks on the bottom of a harbor when the “economic tide goes out.” E.g. downturns in the economy cause people to try to draw out money that appears to be in account, but isn’t. Evergreen’s accounting practice was a kind of embezzlement. Expect more of the bezzle to be seen as the downturn continues in the China semiconductor and automotive sectors. The big question is whether Xi will turn to war, the old dictator’s standby, to prop up his government.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Craig Fletcher says:

    What is the catalyst for the crazy property market in China? = a lack of tax system to fund cities and provincial operations so sell land leases to evergrande and others to get money. Follow the money where does it come from and go to

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars 3d guy247 says:

    Wait what.. they have 310B dept but also 202B in assets that have zero value? So.. it is half a trillion debt write off? That is a lot.

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