So yesterday I explained how China founded their statements and the acts of Xi Jinping their Premiere now re-elected and other officials have been basically embracing capitalism in the face of losing their manufacturing clout as companies like Apple start fleeing to Vietnam and India covered zero policies, a real estate bubble and subsequent collapse and saber rattling really left China looking like a hostile place for business. And in recent months, the Chinese Communist leadership has made it clear they've tasted capitalism and they want more. in fact, apples. Tim Cook Just met with Xi Jinping and Elon Musk just announced a new mega pack facility in Shanghai which expanding in Shanghai and China is actually something that I've been encouraging since about April of 2022 and the reason I've been encouraging it is because I I know that China has tasted capitalism and they want more of it like let's go give me more, give me more I gotta have more capitalism.

So I thought gosh, that would be a fantastic and easy place for you to build more factories Tesla especially since places like Berlin Germany is substantially more difficult to build or California Now this comes as uh, you know obviously China brags about how successful Tesla is in China with their original Tesla Shanghai facility. Really? Tesla is like an advertisement for how great doing business is in China Well, I thought cooler heads would Prevail this time around, and much like last, August Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August and then China conducted incredible military drills and Uh and potentially at one point launched missiles over Taiwan and completely encircled Taiwan with Uh with basically military exercises and I thought this time around maybe cooler heads would Prevail and and we wouldn't see those sorts of drills again. And so yesterday morning when we were we, we spoke about my thoughts on China I said I think you know China is going to be a little bit more chill this time around. Look, they're not conducting any exercises Uh, in the face of Uh, the President of Taiwan meeting Kevin McCarthy in California Well, I was wrong almost within hours of my video on China Uh, I was able to pitch a 69 off CPI coupon code for the programs I'm building your wealth link down below which you can now use buy now, pay later for Uh But then also we got this chart here which shows that China is once again encircling Taiwan with military exercises being conducted across the median long line of the Taiwan Strait and you have Uh military fleets surrounding Taiwan Military exercises are scheduled for April 8th to April 10th.

These exercises will be conducted uh over these days and Taiwan has reported that there are 71 people's Liberation Army aircraft, nine warships, all of them crossing the median line in the Taiwan Straits and these units are conducted conducting simulated strikes on designated targets that they're establishing in Uh in the territorial Waters of Taiwan Uh, right outside of Taiwan Now the now, they're a little closer or a little further away than those territorial water lines. uh uh, you can kind of see that but see that blue outline the territorial Waters The last time China conducted drills, they were much closer to Taiwan and much more. Dare I say disrespectful? uh in terms of where they were launching missiles. Now, none of this is of course respectful, but the last time was very severe.

You got a lot of press attention. However, we have some facts here. according to Bloomberg, the drills this time seem to be different. They seem to be quote substantially smaller in scale and don't include the imposition of any exclusive zones in airspace.

or Waters Now remember China potentially flew missiles over Taiwan in August That is not what we are seeing now. And so while initially I said crap I'm wrong I said China's not conducting drills, this is great. They're enjoying capitalism and they're trying to be a little bit more reasonable instead of say we're rattling so loudly, loudly scaring people away. uh, they're going to be more relaxed this time around.

Well then initially I thought crap I'm wrong Here come the drills just hours after I posted my video. but now when I look a little bit deeper, maybe I'm actually not wrong and and maybe I'm biased. but I'm willing to be wrong. But what I think is happening now is largely symbolic.

see I think China and this is my opinion. China has the belief that if you poke China we will punch the air to make sure you know we're awake. Think about that. It's kind of like China gets poked by this.

Taiwanese President visiting Kevin McCarthy The Speaker of the House the third person in line to the presidency China's like right punched in the air and and they're doing that because they want to make the world to know. Don't mess with China Now that's actually very different from the embarrassment of America right now in the Middle East which is not the fault of our troops in the Middle East it's the fault of our Administration and I would say this no matter which Administration it is left or right. You all know that I'm I do my best to be in the middle. Uh, and the reality is right now in America.

According to the Wall Street Journal out of 78 times our military has been attacked, we have only responded three times with force. That is embarrassing. That is an embarrassing ratio. Violent criminals in the Middle East know that they have less than a five to six percent chance.

Actually less than five percent chance of being responded to by the U.S military even as they shoot Rockets at our Americans and our contractors in the Middle East it's pathetic. So I believe that China is actually holding drills as a as as potentially the people would expect of China not me I didn't expect it. So I I will take the L on that. but I actually just revise sort of my thesis and thinking okay, well maybe this is just that's just the way China is.

The fact that these drills are not escalatory though, and the fact that they are actually a very watered-down version of the drills we saw in August shows that capitalistic sign of improvement that we were looking at yesterday. So I maintain that my thesis holds that in the next decade. it is more likely in my opinion that China will partner with Taiwan to grow their economies and their GDP substantially together. Then it is likely that China actually invades Taiwan That is my belief.

This means in my opinion, China is not actually flip-flopping here on their goals of of of of capitalism. they're just staying true to their nature. I actually call what happens in China I I came up with a phrase for this: I call what China is doing socialism with opportunistic capitalism. It's kind of like everything is built on Central planning and socialism.

but they throw the salt and pepper of capitalism on top and as a result, they have to maintain their impression in the worldwide uh, sort of in the world theater that hey, don't mess with China how dare you It You know, uh, question are uh, territorial Integrity Uh, China owns Taiwan and Taiwan belongs to us, right? That appears to be what China is trying to say and they have to keep That impression going. But do we really think that they're increasing the odds of going to war? In my opinion, the answer to that is no. And the difference in the drills that we're seeing is highly, uh, exemplary. Uh or exemplifies exactly this thesis.

Now we'll see. obviously I Expect Uh, over the next few, um, few days, we'll see how these drills end up. I Think they'll end up very benign I Actually think they'll get relatively little press coverage I Actually think China doesn't necessarily want there to be a lot of press coverage around these. Of course, they'll be covered.

But look at this. The drills were orchestrated conveniently around the same time as Tesla is announcing a new deal to build a factory with Tesla for Mega packs. and I Think that actually reiterates my thesis because look at that. they timed the drill for when they could announce a big capitalistic announcement.

Take a look at this when you go to the front page of Bloomberg Not only are you going to see on screen uh, my 69 off coupon code for the programs of building your wealth you can now use buy now, pay later for. But look at this: What do you have on the front page of Bloomberg The very first article Tesla to build New Shanghai Factory Tesla tripled Austin Workforce A lot of Tesla information here U.S Consumer prices. Where do we have China here? or China I See no China I See nothing about the China war yet I mean I would expect to see something on the front page. Let's do a find.

China Look at this. Look at this on the front page of: Bloomberg Uh Airbus To Build New China Jet Factory as Apple pulls back Tesla to build new Factory in China Apple at Heart of U.S Selective decoupling uh reality check How influential is China Right now look at this nothing. There's nothing on the front page number about uh, the the military exercises. Now in my opinion that is actually exactly what China wants.

You know for anyone paying attention. Uh, they are conducting military exercises but for everybody else, what do they care about? Not this. In fact, look at this. Okay, watch this.

This is incredible. Uh, you can't see anything and there we go. Okay, so watch this. This is the South China Morning Post Look at this.

This is a a Chinese propaganda. Okay, what do they have here Macron trip hailed as success with the um uh French President right? These are your front page stories. Why the U.S ideological struggle against China must not succeed. Okay Chinese propaganda.

So the most important stories to them are uh, positive relations with with France Uh and and still winning against their enemies though, right? Let's see here we go on here. You have a sort of a byline. China's Pla simulates Taiwan strikes on day two of Joint Sharp sword drills. Fantastic.

I'm actually surprised they're not pitching uh, the Tesla deal as much here. I Don't know. Maybe have they not woken up yet? See, they actually aren't on their propaganda site. they're not pitching in as much.

That's very interesting. It shows you a little bit of the difference between Chinese propaganda and American propaganda. in China. they're like look, we're meeting with world leaders and we're conducting exercises and the US won't succeed.

But then you go to U.S media and what are we getting today? Nothing about the Kevin McCarthy meeting or the Nancy Pelosi uh drama we had last time. Instead about how much people are actually building like Airbus and Tesla in uh in China. It's very interesting. I Mean, let's look at the Airbus piece for a moment.

Airbus to build a new China jet. Factory As Apple pulls back, Airbus will double its production capacity in China of its top selling jet. In a bold bet on the on future demand and one of the world's largest Aviation markets, the European plane maker will add a second final assembly line for the A320 narrow bodies at an existing Factory in China and so they're adding a second assembly line. Got it? Okay, so they're expanding an existing Factory The move is a boost for Chinese manufacturing as other firms like Apple rethink production now.

they've been regularly talking about going to Vietnam or India, but who knows Tim Cook Just met in China Maybe maybe they'll expand in both places? Who knows. Airbus However, looked set to leave China without a new plane order during Macron's three-day State visit. Despite intensive talks over the past weekend with Chinese customers Bloomberg Recorded Reported this week that the company was now targeting a follow-on order that would include a350s and possibly a330s Airbus remained optimistic about winning business in China. All right, very interesting.

so it's it's an interesting way to uh to to think about what's going on in China Nobody knows with certainty, right? And that's what I want to be clear about as well. Nobody knows with absolute certainty. but I Believe the fears of an invasion in Taiwan uh by China are relatively over. uh blown.

I Agree with Ronald here in the chat that China is very calculating I completely agree about that. Uh, Shurish here says China is scared from India India is the great hedge to China unless China flip-flops and becomes buddies with India. That's true. but India knows China can't be trusted Uh Shurish says I don't think the situation will escalate.

we lost my crown during the Trump presidency Hall Uh guy Ladouche says Kevin war is inevitable. Yeah, I disagree with that. Well, I mean I appreciate the thought but I but I disagree with it. So anyway, that's my thesis.

It gives you a follow-up on what's going on with China and this potential fear-mongering around an invasion in Taiwan I I Don't think it's going to happen, but uh, we're going to continue to do to study it. and I think every day that we continue to study it. Uh, we we could see whether we're getting closer or further away. I Think the de-escalation in military exercises relative to Nancy Pelosi's visit are very clear indication that uh China's not interested in escalating military exercises beyond what they've done in the past.

If anything, they're de-escalating at the same time as de-escalating What are they doing? What they're announcing new Factory plans with Tesla and Airbus. So anyway, my thoughts on China.