We need to talk about: Kathy What's insane Price target for Tesla and what actually goes into it I Respect Kathy But some of these estimates are insane. Let's talk about Kathy's price Target Remember coupon code expires at 11 59 pm tonight. For the programs on building your wealth, you want a custom bundle, email us at: Kevin Meet Kevin.com You can get lifetime access. You've got some of the inexpensive, most inexpensive ways to get lifetime access to all the content data, daily course member live streams, and all the exclusive stuff. Course members get you lifetime access to this content linked down below. Check out once and you're done. If you want to bundle up, email us at Kevin.com All right now we've got to cover what's the latest is with Tesla including what Kathy Woods Price Target is for Tesla We also have to cover some information on price Cuts We got to talk about the model Y What just happened with the model Y. We've also got to provide a cyber truck update because there's a little bit of a cyber truck update and I have to say I'm not very enthused about what I just saw in the Cyber truck update and I don't like to be the bearer of bad news I Don't necessarily think I am a bearer of bad news, but I'm the bearer of realistic news Okay So we're gonna do a little bit of chatting about that so well let's get started. Also, I do want to say I've downloaded the latest update of full Self-driving Tesla in the middle of last year released that we have had 35 million miles of Full self-driving Uh, miles already driven I Expect that number's probably already doubled by then, especially thanks to the wide release of FSD in December And boy oh boy. yesterday with the latest update, even more improvements, it's taking roundabouts better. Uh, it still wants to crash at one particular on-ramp Uh, that that I have to take over every time on so it's still not happy about one area. There's one particular on-ramp that I have to take care of from downtown. Uh, not that I go downtown for any particular reason ever. Um, you know City Hall's there you gotta? You gotta pull permits of course. Uh, but anyway, there's this one particular on-ramp that's a little janky, but other than that I generally have intervention-less drives with this sucker I used to have to take over on roundabouts, but I'm no longer having to take over in roundabouts and it's doing better with incoming traffic in neighborhoods in turns. uh, which is good and it's also less finicky with people walking around. So I think that's uh, that's a very, very bullish for what we're seeing with FSD Uh, Sawyer Tweeted that a Ford is now bragging about how people have had 42 million uh miles driven here on uh FSG or their sort of blue Cruise Keep in mind this is Highway only this is basically adaptive cruise control. This is like this: This is not full self-driving This is stupid. this is lame. If you do go to uh my my Twitter profile I Encourage you to follow me because you can see me here paintballing with my shirt off. Here's me in a spa with my shirt off. If you want to see my hot dog, you can see my hot dog here as well. So just make sure you follow me at real meet Kevin uh on on Twitter and and you get you know you get all all the quality stuff there. so uh, in terms of uh, actual news though, we do have a little bit of news regarding uh, the Mexico facility as well. Uh so I've been waiting for updates and a potential announcement on this Bloomberg has provided a little bit of insight on this here. Uh, Tesla is expected to announce an investment in Mexico very soon as the country Works to expand infrastructure and renewable energy supplies to take advantage of a boom and companies relocating says the Mexican Foreign minister. A Mexican government is working with Tesla LED by Elon Musk to find a location that'll be appropriate. They've been targeting Northeast Mexico and there's a suggestion that potentially Tesla could announce very soon an up to 10 billion dollar gigafactory in Northeast Mexico which would be relatively close to the gigafactory in Texas except the average pay for worker would be about one-fourth uh as as much uh By the way that's awesome thank you Sebastian just sent me that Robin Hood actually updated their uh interest rate yield to 4.15 percent? That's incredible. 4.15 on Robinhood hashtag not sponsored only sponsors We got here are courses and coupon codes that expire tonight. uh, symbolizing the course. Okay Mexico Pledged to reduce carbon emissions Fine near Shoring spot Mexico Particularly in northern States is a favorite destination for companies that want to relocate operations from China closer to the United States through a process known as near Shoring However, shortages of electricity Supply in particular from the renewable resources are one of the constraints that the country is trying to alleviate. That could actually be good for solar deployments, especially industrial style solar deployments. There are companies that sell the steel frames uh, the motors that tilt the solar panels Obviously Good for string inverter style companies when you start getting into sort of the industrial uh deployments of of solar panels. So this gives us a little bit of an update here. Keep in mind that Northeast Mexico has a lot of vehicle manufacturers already. In fact, Mexico in general is is a very large exporter of vehicles. You've got Mercedes assembling uh Vans there Vehicles there Sprinter vans uh, you've got GM's over there. A lot of vehicle companies assembled in Mexico even even the European ones. they'll send the parts over and assemble them in Mexico So then let's go ahead and look at the Cyber truck update and then I'd like to give you Kathy Woods price Target opinion while also giving you here an update on the Tesla Model y. Apparently the Tesla Model y has just been delayed to potentially as far out as May for deliveries. This used to say February to March for deliveries and now we're sitting at uh march to May for delivery. so you've got a little bit of a delay here on the model Y. I Personally believe if you're going to buy a Tesla you should buy a model Y. I think the S and X are a rip-off but hey, you'll give Tesla more profit if you want to be stupid and buy that. that's fine. Uh, do keep in mind I am calling myself stupid as both a Tesla Model S and X owner yes and I've never owned the model Y so take that for what it's worth. do as I say not as I do don't buy a plane I just bought a plane. So so Joe Anyway, uh okay I'm gonna now move on. Uh so this is interesting. but what else is interesting is where was it? Uh, there was. hold on a sec. We want to listen to Kathy's price target for Tesla Ah yes, here we go. This was in a spaces call apparently our boy, not our boy. Uh, but Grant Cardone uh hosted this space is called let's go ahead and listen to this. Uh I Found it interesting what Kathy has to say. so let's give it a listen here decision. So I asked people before you came into the room I said look if if you were given if you want a million dollar lottery and part of the stipulation on the winning was you have five hours, you have to pick one stock and you have to keep that one stock for 10 years. Otherwise, we're not going to give you the million dollars. What stock would you invest in? Well, especially because of how much it's been pummeled recently. Um, and we're known for this: I Don't think it'll surprise if if any of your listeners have heard of Arc they've they've heard of Tesla and um I think tests are so to give you a sense of that I think Tesla hit 180 dollars Today we have put out on our website uh, our Tesla Model and you can manipulate it if you'd like to see how we get to these numbers. but that 180 dollars We Believe will in five years Now this is our research and of course we could be wrong for compliance reasons I Have to say that but it's right back. Our conviction is very high that that 180 if you do hold it, don't trade it. Um, we'll uh, will scale to fifteen hundred dollars in our base. Okay, so it's actually a little north of that now. so almost 10 1500? Almost 10x when soon. Listen in fold in five years. Why five years baby. Five years now. A little aggressive, but then again, maybe I'm aggressive too, because I've got around a 500 price Target in 2025 at the end of 2025 and that's in a mere three years. But look, if you can get to 500 bucks in three years and then 3x again, two thereafter. Mama Kathy I Like the estimate, but could it potentially be unrealistic? it's going to really require a lot of FSD revenue. and I think it's a stretch to get to that level, especially since I think a lot of FSD revenue is going to turn into monthly payments rather than upfront revenues. I Think there's a good chance that those margins keep coming down at Tesla so that they can sell those vehicles. Uh, and and really incentivize people to get into FSD and make the margin there now. Canopy provides insights into this as well. I Previously have mentioned that Tesla could potentially create a small two-door tiny battery pack vehicle with a 20 kilowatt hour battery pack and 80 mile range kind of like your daily commuter kind of vehicle and sell it for potentially twenty thousand dollars at zero cost or maybe a slight profit or zero gross profit. I should say uh and and make money just off FSD and they would still have somewhere around 30 plus percent margins and be incredible. The margins are phenomenal at Tesla but listen to what Kathy has to say about about the numbers. But yes, her price targets 1500 in five years. Keep listening I because uh, because electric vehicles have entered the Sweet Spot of their S-curve and Tesla is leading the charge so to speak and uh and and just good I just got the pun. sorry So just just to get to that 500 dollars at price Target I mean to get to the electric vehicle part of the story, that's 500 of the 1500. in order to get that other thousand uh, you have to believe as we do increasingly that we are going to be um, that Tesla is going to be in the lead in in the pole position, uh to to become the Uh autonomous taxi platform at least in the United States There are not going to be many winners here. Um. and so I Don't hear you I Don't hear you really talking about the electric aspect I Hear you talking about the autonomous. Are you saying that the other the Chevys and the Mercedes and the Audis that are coming on with the electric? the Tesla's Advantage is going to be the the the automation or am I getting that wrong? I think it's both I think they're they're electric vehicles if you want for a for a price. If you same performance as uh Tesla in terms of range, same range, and same performance, uh, another car company is probably going to have to lose money if if they price their cars at Tesla's prices. And as you've probably heard recently, she is right. Remember that GM's actually got good margins. Uh, overall Ford loses money on electric vehicles I'd like to get segment revenue from GM And on top of that, you have a companies like Byd in China who were very competitive making just a buck 40 on margin where Tesla's making 13 to 17 bucks. Uh, on net margin net. It's insane. Uh, it's just so Kathy's right. A lot of companies are probably going to get pushed into losses. Uh, if they, uh, try to compete with Tesla, do keep in mind that GM and Ford are saying that their vehicles are priced appropriately and they don't need to cut prices. Meanwhile, Ford just cut prices on the Machi And on top of that, they are offering discounts like crazy, but both at GM and Ford and they expect us discounts to increase. So don't get confused by the MSRP bullcrap that car companies pull off. Tesla is starting to use that learning curve and is starting to drive down prices again. It's going to be very difficult for other companies to keep up. so we do think they've got a very strong position on the electric vehicle side. But the the autonomous, uh, the autonomous platform. It will be more of a software as a service like model compared to uh, an automotive model for the electric vehicle. So Automotive gross margins are in the 25 to 30 percent range. Uh, the autonomous gross margins are going to could be as high as 80 percent. so it's a much much more decision. Yeah, Wow. So let's actually look at her document on this. so uh, Monte Carlo Simulation, by the way, is basically just taking inputs and then trying to figure out. Okay, if we assume you know 40 000 different scenarios, what are sort of the average outcomes? Uh, but it it like the Monte Carlo simulation is only as good as your actual inputs, so it doesn't matter. Just don't get distracted by that. We've got to look at the inputs. The inputs are what matter. So what are the inputs? Okay, well in Kathy's 2025 bear case, she's at 5 million Vehicles sold I'm at four. Uh, average selling price of 40 45 I'm at 47 so that's pretty close. Uh, However, she does include a little bit of incremental uh uh, 23 billion dollars of incremental Insurance Revenue She increa includes 42 billion dollars by 2025 of human driven ride hailing Revenue Zero autonomous I I mean Tesla has not indicated any interest in getting into human driven ride hailing. so I'm a little confused by that. but whatever Electric vehicle gross margin: I Don't know how you can get to this number as your example bear case, but it ain't going to be 40 I I Don't think so. I mean maybe, but this is insane. Like those are some really high numbers here. Uh, and and so basically she gets to the idea. Okay, that 1500 bucks is reasonable. Okay, their 2020 uh number? Uh, well, that's probably that's I Mean there's no point to even look at 2020 I mean we're looking at 500 000 Vehicles Sold Her bold case scenario actually doubles the amount of vehicles, but drops the price to 36 000. This assumes the introduction of a lower Revenue vehicle. but then in order to get these crazy price targets uh, we're assuming massive autonomous ride hailing Revenue by 2025 of 327 billion dollars, which is almost as much money as the company would make selling 10 million vehicles at thirty six thousand dollars a vehicle. These No. These numbers while they feel good I think this is crazy now. don't even Rock I Respect Kathy And she's been called crazy many times and she was right about her initial projections about Tesla's growth. uh, at least her her initial assumptions that it was. it was a great investment, but then again, a lot of people made a great investment into Tesla Uh, and anytime before the pandemic or even when the pandemic started, including myself. Uh, but but I think some of the numbers that are going into this projection are lofty. uh assuming human driven ride hailing in excess of uh, 20 of the total revenues for the company I don't think so assuming a 40 gross margin I Don't think so So I'm gonna cut all of that in half and then take another 200 off and I'm sticking with 500 by 2025. because I'm just going to assume half her bare case and then take another 200 off. Uh, and I still get to 500 bucks. So all right, that gives you a Tesla a little. Tesla Update Kathy Bov love my Tesla By the way, it's uh, it is getting better every every single day. I Drive it which is, uh, quite remarkable. It's good news I Forgot to mention the crazy part about the Cyber truck. So here it is: This is the back of one of the latest versions of the Cyber truck and they got rid of the cool light bar that goes all the way about across the back I Hope the full light bar comes back. You can see both sides here I Don't know, Let me know what you think.