In ARK Invest's weekly newsletter, Cathie Wood warned of an upcoming EV stock crash. In this video, I cover Cathie and other ARK Invest analyst's bearish thesis on EV startups.
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Join our free discord here: https://discord.gg/xUWB2ExVcr
Link to ARK Invest's Newsletter: https://ark-invest.com/newsletters/issue-254/?utm_content=151879360&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-2398137084
Interested in seeing my full portfolio with explanations along with buy and sell alerts? Join my Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/casgains
My Second Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPkDot_lMk7HB_c68HubbUg
Twitter: https://twitter.com/casgains
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Soundtracks provided by Nanobyte, Emphermal, Defyant, and Lakey Inspired
Copyright Disclaimer Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976: All rights belong to their respective owners
Over the past year, the eevee revolution has only accelerated faster and faster. Yet, behind the popularity of eevee stocks, there has been a hidden transition occurring, kathy wood. The ceo and ceo of arkhanvest has stated that she believes that an eevee stock market crash is practically guaranteed over the next 10 years. Now that doesn't mean that you should sell tesla and all other eevee stocks.
You may own. In fact, the research that kathy wood has done supports the transition to evs and ev stocks, but points directly to favoring a few eevee companies. In this video. I will cover what kathy was predicting for the eevee sector and why she believes that an eevee stock crash is warranted.
Welcome to cass games academy, if you're new to the channel. Please consider subscribing for more content like this and let's get right into it in order to understand what is about to happen over the next few years. Kathy wood believes we need to backtrack and look at what happened in u.s history. When the automobile revolution first started in 1893, two bicycle mechanics invented the first successful american gasoline automobile.
Two years later, the two mechanics won the first american car race one year after that they went on to make the first sale of an american-made gasoline car. It's not a surprise that after such disruptive technology was unveiled many automakers flooded in to replicate and manufacture automobiles. By 1899 30 american manufacturers produced 2 500 motor vehicles over the next 10 years. Around 485 companies entered the automobile industry.
This is similar to the eevee revolution. As you've seen a huge surge in the number of eevee automakers, yet the automobile industry wasn't disrupted until the elon musk of gasoline vehicles disrupted the industry. This is, as many of you know, henry ford. In 1908, henry ford introduced the model t.
The reason why the model t was so revolutionary was because of the fact that it was somewhat affordable to the population to put the vehicle into context. This vehicle is similar to the release of the tesla model 3. By no means was the model 3 affordable, but at the same time it showed the automobile industry that electric vehicles have a bright future ahead. In the same year that the model t was created, william durant, who was a high school dropout that made his fortune building horse carriages, started general motors due to its vast land area and scattered settlements.
The u.s had massive demand for automobiles. Due to this demand, the new automobile firms operated in the luxury automobile market quite well by 1913, the u.s produced 485 000 vehicles, which was a huge increase from a decade before that. During this time, one company stood out of the crowd, which was ford motors ford outcompeted, his competitors to his impressive design at moderate price. The ford model n revealed in 1906 was dubbed as the first motor car that was actually manufactured at scale. Following the model, n was, as i described earlier, the model t which was especially impressive with its innovative design and moderate price. This was all because of the facts that henry ford was able to disrupt modern mass production techniques at its plant in michigan by 1929. The automobile industry changed dramatically in 1908, there were 253 active automobile manufacturers by 1929. There were only 44 automobile manufacturers, not only that, but 80 percent of the automobiles manufactured were from three companies.
You might be wondering why did this happen? Ultimately, it all came down to innovation. The car market became extremely saturated as used cars piled up, dealer's lots, leading to only a few innovative automakers taking the majority of the market share, for example, under the leadership of alfred sloane jr general motors innovated. The idea of planned obsolescence, alfred sloane jr, put an emphasis on the styling of the vehicle and also ensured a large cosmetic annual model change. This made it so that people became dissatisfied with their cars as new annual models were created because of that dissatisfication people kept buying gm's new vehicles every year by 1936.
Gm at 43 percent of the us market following gm was chrysler at 25 and 4 at 22. This meant that by 1936, 90 of the automobile sales were all from three automakers. As i mentioned earlier, in the early 1900s, there were 485 automobile manufacturers in the industry. Out of all of those companies, only three dominated kathy would see the same occurrence happening to the eevee industry in kathy wood's weekly arc invest newsletter.
She and other arc analysts detailed. How history repeats itself. The question she asked was: could most electric vehicle startups go bankrupt outside of china? The number of eevee companies going public is mounting, and if automotive history is any guide, we believe most will disappear in one way or another as gas-powered vehicles commercialized in the early 1900s. For example, roughly 485 companies entered the business by 1930, fewer than 50 survived and just three accounted for 80 of auto output.
Likewise, in china, more than 500 ev companies had registered by 2019, but only a handful were able to raise additional funds last year to produce one vehicle or to scale manufacturing. Now it appears. Eevee startups are proliferating outside of china. Again, if history is any guide, most of them will fail to reach scale.
What kathy would just said there is a clear warning to the eevee stock industry. There are now many eevee companies out there, but only a few will actually dominate the industry in the future. Many of the eevee companies popping out of nowhere will die off by going bankrupt. Today there are many eevee stocks out there competing in the industry.
In no particular order are tesla expand motors lee, auto workhorse general motors fisker, elektra mechanica, lordstown motors candy, fiat chrysler, archimoto, byd, nicola scam, canoe, volkswagen, green power, motor daimler, neo apple, bmw, ford, toyota, baidu, lucid motors and gili out of all the companies. I mentioned only a few will actually succeed and i'm sure there are many companies that aren't even inside the list. With that being said, if you're going to invest in the eevee sector, you must choose wisely about which companies will succeed. Personally, i see tesla is practically a guarantee in terms of dominating the eevee market. 2018 tesla had a 17 share of the global ev market, including china last year. I think i've got this number right. They had 23 share. We assumed for our bare case that tesla would lose market share from that 17 and go down to in our base case 11 and, in our bear case, 6 percent.
Instead, what has happened? It went up to 23 last year, and now i think we're up to this is rough uh, as of mid-year uh uh about 26. So it's still increasing, has 78 nine to eighty percent share in the united states and even in china, where i think there are 150 electric vehicle manufacturers crazy, crazy, um. Tesla has 21 had in june 21 of that market. Think about that 150 and tesla is 21.
Now it's incredible yeah. It is incredible, assuming that only a few are to succeed. This doesn't leave many other spots available. In fact, it is possible that history is different and only one or two companies come out on top.
Let me know which companies you think will dominate the ev sector over the next decade or two: do you think the automobile market will ultimately come down to a few winners, or do you think that many automakers will take a large portion of the pie if you Enjoyed this video, please consider supporting the channel on patreon if you're interested in seeing my full portfolio in addition to buy and sell alerts and please hit the like button and subscribe and i'll see you in the next one.
So this investment expert was off by only a 100% in a ONE year prediction? Impressive.
Cathie Wood has done a thorough analysis of the history of automobile manufactures since its inception, and warns of the risks of investment in the eletric vehicle sector, that if follow the history they will follow the fate od clousure and bankruptcy. This alert is extremely smart for those who are thinking about big investments and envision this market.
missed rivian which has amazons backing and is stated to go public this year will be interesting
If people look at the big picture, the major car manufacturers of the world, particularly the Germans, will produce superior EV's than the likes of Tesla and NIO. Some of them already are. The current EV manufacturers have no history of producing cars that provide the qualities that passionate consumers require, which include luxury, driver engagement and dynamics. A Tesla would never compare to an equally priced Mercedes Benz for luxury or a Porsche for driver engagement.
i make huge profits on my investment since i started trading with Mrs Sonia dickson, her trading startegies are
top notch
Oh well, what I have just heard from her last is that ev market is just started and we are currently at the bottom of this market. There is more room to grow for ev in the next few years. So I dont worry about the next 10 years since the next 2-5 years will come first.
Alibaba went after Ebay, succeeded. Huawei did the same, NIO is next.
She just said Tesla will hit $4k now this?
The way the numbers are looked at is wrong by the analyst. Tesla's market share of total EV sales did increase, however Tesla is targeting a specific market segment. What will happen is, soon other players, New and Old will bring affordable EVs to the market. That specific market segment needs validation first, affordability second and reliability third. Most brands which will get this formula right will be of those 5-10 major players in future along with Tesla on top the board. Tesla wants EVs to be adopted as soon as possible and that's the way it needs everybody to win.
Just remember, Elon brought Tesla to life to fund his SpaceX dream.He has said this many times.
She should stay home & Take care of
her family. priorities first.
Sound logic. The shakeout is coming. There are a few real innovators there though…
Should the market crash 💥 every year LOL 😂 bullshit
liteterally there is only one real EV stock. Isn’t it?
I think Rivian is one that will be around for a while.
Ultimately there is probably 3 or 4 companies other than Tesla lucid motors , nio, workhorse lordstown motors are the four but definitely history repeats itself great information and loved this video ty
Nio will creep up on Tesla, at least in terms of China's share.
what made the model t affordable was mass production which lowered cost and made them affordable.
Tesla will be a giant in the EV wars. GM , ford and Chrysler will rise to the occasion when it is more viable, right now the range game is the big factor, EV is further off than most think to domination over ICE. Many folks fail to realize that Heat, cold, grades, weight, all effect range severely. and think ford and Gm are going to fail because they don't see them jumping as aggressively as Tesla. But what some might miss is ford and Gm have been quietly investing and building infrastructure, as well as Volkswagen. Ford is tied heavily into Rivian and they are building infrastructure. many things behind the scenes are happening. and if you look back in history at the big 3 when it is time to ramp up they have proven they can grow to an astronomical rate when it is needed. I wouldn't count them out ever, no matter how slow and bureaucratic they seem. just a short look back to ww2 will tell that story. they are sleeping giants.
No one has mentioned BYD!!! Alright, sleep if you want to. Aside from TSLA Warren Buffet is long on BYDDF.
history always repeats itself. love the video man. Now the question is which EV companies will get the bigger piece of the pie. I'm already thinking Tesla as a no brainer, and possibly WorkHorse might be up there too.
too many TESLA killers that cannot kill ..LOL..keep coming. Elon will dominates the market , Elon understands what drivers want!!!!!
Attention all Tesla shareholders. The worlds carmakers are about to unleash far more desirable and superior cars. Sell now before the crash happens!
While it's true that Ford and GM dominated the automobile industry after those initial car manufacturing companies failed, we now have dozens of commercially successful car manufacturing companies. I see electric vehicles as an evolution, and most established companies are transitioning. There will be some that disappear, but I envision the number of commercially successful manufacturers returning to a number similar to what we had before EVs came out.
unnecessarily long video. We all know the history of ICE vehicles. Why tell people what they already know? Just get to the point and don't waste time.
I like cathie and think she is a smart investor but I think she is wrong on this one. The video talks about how many gas car manufacturers there used to be and how we got down to three. Those manufactures didnt go bankrupt , most were bought out. GM was even buying streetcar companies and scrapping them out to eliminate competition.That being said there are other reasons at play like unionization and regulator issues that make it more profitable for companies to smaller and more streamlined.
( Gee… forget Cathie…we should all consult Theresa Walton first-damn scammer/spammers ) ..anyhoo, great informative concise vid , thanks, always good to know what ARK/Wood thinks, made some profits on PLTR also due to ARK
Even more interesting will be the minerals and materials needed to continue the build out of the sector. It seems Tesla is already in the process of integrating their share of the nickel, copper, and lithium markets.
I have to think the cost of entry into the auto industry gives an advantage to existing car makers like Toyota, Hyundai and GM. I think there will be a major shaking out that occurs and you’re going to have a handful of companies that dominate the market. It’s not just development of the vehicle but building the dealership infrastructure to support sales and services.
NIO blow's Tesla by decades if you compare technology. NIO will be the dominator in EV market, because of battery swap. You can rent battery for long distance also. They also have software upgrade for life of the car. Technically you have to buy a new EV every time a new feature is added, instead you upgrade like cell phone apps
Can't know how I bumped onto this. Anyway Damn good content 🙌🙌. I also watched those similar from mStarTutorials and kinda wonder how you guys create these vids. MStar Tutorials also had cool info about similiar make money online things on his channel.
Didn't know GM pioneered the concept of "Planned Obsolescence", good info!
How do we feel about apple in the ev market ?
See Nikki's take at Transport Evolved…ICEV isn't going anywhere, and all companies going fully electric with no ICEV hedge, are going to do badly, regardless of government coerced sales.
In addition, the activities of tech companies (leftist-biased censorship and destruction of free speech) are going to poison the well for tech companies. Add to that the recent retail investor takedown of hedge funds shorting brick-and-mortar, and Woods' bets could be albatrosses overnight.
Its far too difficult to predict, Volume makers are usually low cost makers. Innovators are differentiators and differentiators don't normally compete with cost leaders. Tesla is a confused company, they are differentiating and trying to cost lead. They are in a good position at the moment because they don't have any competitors, but eventually they will lose if they continue this differentiation strategy as a methid for profit. They are diluting their differentiation efforts trying to make volume, or diluting their cost reduction efforts by differentiation. The video is talking about cost leaders not differentiators, but yet saying it was differentiation that kept them alive, this is wrong, it was cost leadership and short time to market for 'new' models with no significant innovation. Sure you have to keep up with luxury items as they become commoditised but this is not innovation. Firms specialising in one or the other will come along and beat them.
Still not being the market leaders in cost and volume does not mean they will cease to exist, what matters is profit and differentiators make more profit per unit than cost leaders.
If Tesla wants to cost lead they need to give up on FSD and downgrade their expensive computer systems, plush interiors and software updates, and over the top performance.
Having said they Tesla will be more of a battery manufacturer than a car maker in future, but that really needs spun off into another company.
My projection: 1. Tesla. 2. Apple. 3. Lucid. 4. Nio.
It will be the Big 3 and Tesla the others will either go under or be bought up by 1 of the Big 3 just my opinion
Lucid motors will be one of the largest