Interested in seeing my full portfolio with explanations along with buy and sell alerts? Join my research platform here: https://www.patreon.com/casgains
In this video, I cover why Cathie Wood believes that a deflationary crash will be the ultimate shocker for a large portion of the stock market.
Disclosure: I have no positions in UiPath (PATH) and do not intend to initiate a position within the next 48 hours. I am not being compensated for this video by any entity mentioned in this analysis.
Casgains's Recommended Investing/Business Books: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DI8ca5GLEfQXU34uplO3E3w6YHXbvMbK1JR-GxXBeUc/edit?usp=sharing
My Second Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPkDot_lMk7HB_c68HubbUg
Twitter: https://twitter.com/casgains
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/casgainsacademy/
Contact for business inquiries only: casgainsacademy @gmail.com
Over the past few months, criticism against Cathie Wood has garnered substantial attention. However, Cathie Wood recently went on CNBC to dispel any attacks against her. Not only that, but she also boldly warned of the most unanticipated crash in history. Nobody sees what she believes is coming and this will lead major institutions and investors to suddenly lose billions. This video will go in-depth on the massive catalysts that are coming and how they will heavily impact the stock market going forward.
Short-sellers are rapidly attacking Cathie Wood’s funds. They’ve shorted almost all of the holdings in her funds, and some have shorted her entire innovation ETF. In fact, one management company is about to launch an ETF that exclusively short Ark’s innovation fund. So why are so many short-sellers like Michael Burry confident in their positions against Ark? In short, these short-sellers think massive inflation is coming soon.
Not only that but investors worldwide have witnessed stocks rise substantially over 12 months, which could lead to a fatal crash. A surface-level analysis would show us that consumer prices are rising, the stock market is skyrocketing, and therefore, this overheating will lead to a major crash ahead. However, this has become a popular opinion lately. When everyone thinks a crash is going to occur, that’s when a crash is least likely to occur. Cathie Wood does think that a crash is coming, but not in the way that you might imagine. Many renowned investors believe that the risk of overheated inflation is incredibly high. However, Cathie believes a completely different risk is imminent: deflation. This might seem totally crazy, especially since the Federal Reserve has printed immense amounts of money. Nevertheless, Cathie’s bet on the ultimate shocker of deflation starts to make more sense after a deeper dive.
There are three deflationary forces that will inevitably take place, but before we get into that, we must talk about the several sectors that are about to die off. The movement towards new technologies has been vastly accelerated by the pandemic. Electric vehicle sales have increased substantially during the pandemic, especially in comparison to fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. The pandemic has caused many people to realize that electric vehicles are superior to gas-powered vehicles. That might sound like nonsense, but the data that has been coming out recently is mind-blowing. In the UK, plug-in hybrid sales are up 93.6% in 2021. Additionally, electric and hybrid electric vehicles are experiencing a similar increase year over year. On the other hand, petrol and diesel are being demolished, with diesel down an astounding 46.9% year over year. Online retail is also experiencing a massive acceleration in sales. The world is not going to go back to outdated services. All these quote-unquote “recovery” services are recovering, but only in the short term. Over the long term, these stocks will fall 90% or even 100% as many of them inevitably lose market share. This is not a small-scale event either. The transition to new technologies is going to affect at least half of the S&P 500.
There are many outdated sectors that are quickly losing market share and will only continue to lose market share. However, there is something even more important that we have to talk about, which is the deflationary forces at play. There are three main deflationary forces; the first one is technology-enabled cost declines. Over the past decade, demand for electric vehicles worldwide has risen substantially. This increase in demand was primarily driven by the cost decline of batteries. Lithium-ion battery prices have fallen dramatically over the past three decades. The economies of scale and technological advancements will guarantee that battery prices will continue to decline over the long term. Now, this isn’t just the automotive space. Similar exponential declines are happening in almost every sector. Manufacturing, utilities, agriculture, and transport & warehousing have all seen enormous increases in real productivity.
In this video, I cover why Cathie Wood believes that a deflationary crash will be the ultimate shocker for a large portion of the stock market.
Disclosure: I have no positions in UiPath (PATH) and do not intend to initiate a position within the next 48 hours. I am not being compensated for this video by any entity mentioned in this analysis.
Casgains's Recommended Investing/Business Books: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DI8ca5GLEfQXU34uplO3E3w6YHXbvMbK1JR-GxXBeUc/edit?usp=sharing
My Second Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPkDot_lMk7HB_c68HubbUg
Twitter: https://twitter.com/casgains
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/casgainsacademy/
Contact for business inquiries only: casgainsacademy @gmail.com
Over the past few months, criticism against Cathie Wood has garnered substantial attention. However, Cathie Wood recently went on CNBC to dispel any attacks against her. Not only that, but she also boldly warned of the most unanticipated crash in history. Nobody sees what she believes is coming and this will lead major institutions and investors to suddenly lose billions. This video will go in-depth on the massive catalysts that are coming and how they will heavily impact the stock market going forward.
Short-sellers are rapidly attacking Cathie Wood’s funds. They’ve shorted almost all of the holdings in her funds, and some have shorted her entire innovation ETF. In fact, one management company is about to launch an ETF that exclusively short Ark’s innovation fund. So why are so many short-sellers like Michael Burry confident in their positions against Ark? In short, these short-sellers think massive inflation is coming soon.
Not only that but investors worldwide have witnessed stocks rise substantially over 12 months, which could lead to a fatal crash. A surface-level analysis would show us that consumer prices are rising, the stock market is skyrocketing, and therefore, this overheating will lead to a major crash ahead. However, this has become a popular opinion lately. When everyone thinks a crash is going to occur, that’s when a crash is least likely to occur. Cathie Wood does think that a crash is coming, but not in the way that you might imagine. Many renowned investors believe that the risk of overheated inflation is incredibly high. However, Cathie believes a completely different risk is imminent: deflation. This might seem totally crazy, especially since the Federal Reserve has printed immense amounts of money. Nevertheless, Cathie’s bet on the ultimate shocker of deflation starts to make more sense after a deeper dive.
There are three deflationary forces that will inevitably take place, but before we get into that, we must talk about the several sectors that are about to die off. The movement towards new technologies has been vastly accelerated by the pandemic. Electric vehicle sales have increased substantially during the pandemic, especially in comparison to fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. The pandemic has caused many people to realize that electric vehicles are superior to gas-powered vehicles. That might sound like nonsense, but the data that has been coming out recently is mind-blowing. In the UK, plug-in hybrid sales are up 93.6% in 2021. Additionally, electric and hybrid electric vehicles are experiencing a similar increase year over year. On the other hand, petrol and diesel are being demolished, with diesel down an astounding 46.9% year over year. Online retail is also experiencing a massive acceleration in sales. The world is not going to go back to outdated services. All these quote-unquote “recovery” services are recovering, but only in the short term. Over the long term, these stocks will fall 90% or even 100% as many of them inevitably lose market share. This is not a small-scale event either. The transition to new technologies is going to affect at least half of the S&P 500.
There are many outdated sectors that are quickly losing market share and will only continue to lose market share. However, there is something even more important that we have to talk about, which is the deflationary forces at play. There are three main deflationary forces; the first one is technology-enabled cost declines. Over the past decade, demand for electric vehicles worldwide has risen substantially. This increase in demand was primarily driven by the cost decline of batteries. Lithium-ion battery prices have fallen dramatically over the past three decades. The economies of scale and technological advancements will guarantee that battery prices will continue to decline over the long term. Now, this isn’t just the automotive space. Similar exponential declines are happening in almost every sector. Manufacturing, utilities, agriculture, and transport & warehousing have all seen enormous increases in real productivity.
Remember to kathy would close your fund close it. Listen to what the late jack bogle would say, close it that investors have pulled a net 2.7 billion dollars from the funds since the end of june arc invest kathy wood is on the defense uh. I actually feel a a little more comfortable. I like bad news over the past few months.
Criticism against cathy wood has garnered substantial attention. However, kathy wood recently went on cnbc to dispel any attacks against her, not only that, but she also boldly one of the most unanticipated crash in history. Nobody sees what she believes is coming, and this will lead major institutions and investors to suddenly lose billions. This video will go in depth on the massive catalyst that are coming and how they will heavily impact.
The stock market going forward short sellers are rapidly attacking kathy woods, funds, they've shorted, almost all of the holdings in her funds and some have shorted her entire innovation. Etf, in fact, one management company is about to launch an etf that exclusively shorts ark or ark's innovation fund. So why are so many short sellers like michael, bury confident in their positions against arc. In short, these short sellers think massive inflation is coming soon, not only that, but investors worldwide have witnessed stocks rise substantially over the past 12 months, which could lead to a fatal crash.
A surface level analysis would show us that consumer prices are rising in. Therefore, this overheating will lead to a major crash ahead. However, this has become a popular opinion lately when everyone thinks a crash is going to occur. That's when the crash is least likely to occur.
Cathy wood does think that a crash is coming, but not in the way that you might imagine many renowned investors believe that the risk of overheated inflation is incredibly high. However, kathy believes a completely different risk is imminent deflation. This might seem totally crazy, especially since the federal reserve has printed immense amounts of money. Nevertheless, kathy's bet on the ultimate chakra of deflation starts to make more sense after a deeper dive.
I i actually think it's more of a macro call. When i read the bearish analyses, they seem to be centered on inflation and interest rates going higher, which will kill valuations and if anything, as you mentioned, carl we're focused on the deflationary forces that are building up in the economy. I think that's going to be the shocker out there that uh deflation is the greater risk now not inflation. There are three deflationary forces that will inevitably take place, but before we get into that, we must talk about the several sectors that are about to die off.
The movement towards new technologies has been vastly accelerated by the pandemic. Electric vehicle sales have increased substantially during the pandemic, especially in comparison to fossil fuel powered vehicles. The pandemic has caused many people to realize that electric vehicles are superior to gas-powered vehicles that might sound like nonsense, but the data that has been coming out recently is mind-blowing. In the uk, plug-in hybrid sales are up 93.6 in 2021.. Additionally, electric and hybrid electric vehicles are experiencing a similar increase year-over-year. On the other hand, petrol and diesel are being demolished with diesel down an astounding 46.9 year-over-year online retail is also experiencing a massive acceleration in sales. The world is not going to go back to outdated services. All these quote-unquote recovery services are recovering, but only in the short term.
Over the long term, these stocks will fall 90 or even 100 percent, as many of them inevitably lose market share. This is not a small scale event; either the transition to new technologies is going to affect at least half of the s p 500.. When we look at the s p, 500, for example - we think that, because of technology changes, a lot of industries are in harm's way. Energy certainly is because of electric vehicles and the move towards autonomous electric and you can throw in autos and the auto supply chain.
They're scrambling to try and get into this new world. It's going to be very difficult, even when you think of retail many investors, i'm sure, think, okay, well, we've seen the destruction there. We think it's just begun in a way, because online retail sales have only hit 20 percent of total sales here in the united states. When a trend moves from, you know, 10 through 20 percent, it's usually moving into overdrive, so we think a a lot.
A much higher percentage of sales will be online, so even retail and any any business that can be done online financial services - i would say digital wallet - defy uh big problem, a big challenge for financial services. There are many outdated sectors that are quickly losing market share and will only continue to lose market share. However, there is something even more important that we have to talk about. There are three main deflationary forces.
The first one being technology enabled cost declines. Over the past decade, demand for electric vehicles worldwide has risen substantially. This increase in demand was primarily driven by the cost decline of batteries. Lithium-Ion battery prices have fallen dramatically over the past three decades.
The economies of scale and technological advancements will guarantee that battery prices will continue the decline over the long term. Now this isn't just the automotive space. Similar exponential declines are happening in almost every sector. Manufacturing utilities, agriculture and transport and warehousing have all seen enormous increases in real productivity.
Technological advancements are creating deflation purely through increased efficiency. However, while innovation is a long-term deflationary force in the short term, it isn't as strong as the last deflationary force out of the three which we will talk about soon. Not all deflation is bad. There's really good deflation associated with these technologically enabled platforms. They follow. Learning curves, which are characterized by declining costs and prices, and enables more and more sectors to have access to these powerful new technologies. The second source of deflation is another long-term trend. In the first force we talked about how innovation increases efficiency, which leads to lower prices.
On the other side of the spectrum, there are also incumbents who are being disrupted by these new technologies. These incumbents are soon going to be stuck with obsolete, inventory and assets over time. For example, the ford machi is a great step towards electrification. However, ford now has to compete against his own fossil fuel powered vehicles.
Furthermore, it has to spend time and money transitioning into a newer, unproven territory for them. In other words, ford is essentially creating competition for itself, which will inevitably drive prices down for its vehicles. Some companies are even worse than ford as they aren't even taking on any new technologies. Those are the companies that will certainly be stuck with outdated products that must be sold at a lower price.
The bad deflation is going to be associated with companies who paid too much attention to short-term oriented shareholders who wanted their profits now wanted their dividends now and did not want companies to sacrifice short-term profitability in order to capitalize. On some of these massive trends that we see building, they are going to be stuck with obsolete products and yet, in the meantime, they've leveraged up their balance sheets to buy back sales and satisfy short-term oriented shareholders. How are they going to service that debt they're going to have to cut prices of these products and services that are not going to be as popular in the future as they have been in the past? The two deflationary forces that we covered are both long-term trends. On the other hand, the third force is much more powerful in the short term commodity prices a few months ago.
Kathy would predict that lumber prices would crash and lumber prices did indeed collapse. Since mid-may lumber, prices have fallen from over 1600 per thousand board fee. All the way down to under 500, similar declines have also occurred in other commodities, although they haven't been as fatal as a lumber crash. Copper is down roughly 15 from its highs in mid-may.
Additionally, oil has declined by over 15 percent from its highs. Lumber, copper, oil and many other commodities have fallen significantly from their highs, leading many to think that the crash is already over. However, kathy wood definitely doesn't think that the commodity crash was spearheaded by cyclical commodity price declines and also by the rise of the dollar. Contrary to expectations of the us dollar facing major inflation ahead, the u.s dollar has only been rising in comparison to other currencies. One of the reasons why the dollar has been increasing is because of china's worsening economic data, which was caused by the impacts of the delta variant in china. China's economic shutdown will likely continue to worsen, whereas the u.s hasn't been shutting down much at all, because most people are vaccinated. The bond market predicted that the dollar would rise and it is still pricing in a further increase ahead. Despite everything that we just talked about, everyone is still predicting that inflation is coming.
That's why kathy thinks that deflation will be the ultimate market mover. Nobody is expecting deflation to come, even though several indicators are pointing towards it third source of deflation, which is really starting to come through now in a noticeable way started in mid-may uh. When lumber prices broke we're seeing commodity price uh, deflation lumber prices have been cut to one-third less than one-third of their heat. 17.
11 to 4 500 right now, you've got copper down roughly 15 15 to 20 percent. You now have oil down nearly 15 to 20 percent and i think the cream of the crop here and the reason this may be happening and may accelerate to the downside, is the dollar is going up and that of course might be associated with. What's going on. In china, one of the major counter arguments to kathy which thesis is that we are in a bubble.
This is definitely not the case. Valuations surrounding innovations have declined significantly over the past few months. At the same time, skepticism towards innovation has increased by an immense amount. You know what, when uh, i see such negative sentiment out there, especially when it comes to valuation and longer uh time horizons, investment time horizons.
I actually feel a little more comfortable. I like bad news. The discounting is is worse now than the news actually will be. I actually feel better in that kind of environment for for our strategies.
I don't think we're in a bubble, which is what i think many bears think we are in a bubble and i remember the late 90s. You know our strategy would have been cheered on go. Go get them all right. You know, and you remember the leap frogging of analysts making estimates one higher than the other price targets one higher than the other.
We have nothing like that right now. In fact, you see a lot of uh, ipos or specs coming out and falling to earth. We couldn't be further away from a bubble. Kathy wood is clearly taking a contrarian stance compared to the crowd.
Not many other analysts are predicting the same trends or cyclical movements. That kathy is with. That being said, let me know what you think about kathy's prediction in the comments section below. If you enjoyed this video, please hit the like button and subscribe and i'll see you in the next one. .
Bitcoin has been the most profitable investment online, if only you could trade with professional broker. that we work you through the process needed.
Extremely point by point video Well I will also say this here, Most people don't understand the concept of "buying the dip" buying the dip is all about buying digital assets when their prices are down and selling off when the price rises. Holding is great, although trading is far more profitable. I was able to grasp the knowledge of trading crypt0 assets early enough, but I was still limited due to my lack of technical understanding of how to analyze the digital market, all that changed when I encountered Rico Alan, I must confess it was easier to understand with the assistance of Rico that has made me over good altᴄoin.
How will we provide power for the electric vehicles? Our grid shuts down in the summer without EVs, just ACs.
The insane ammount of money printing can’t last forever. The reason is only USA can print it which means only they benefit from it (in short term) while countries that have a lot of their money reserves in dollar (for example China (35 trillion $) and Russia) are losing huge ammounts of money because of inflation. Actually about 60% of ALL the reserves in the world are in US Dollar. When inflation hits full force the money printing has to stop or there will be war again.
Pity the “Middle Class” Guy ..
To Poor for Advantages of Money
To Rich to Receive Benefits of Poor !
Cathy Wood's ideas about cars and energy are only true if you believe in global warming. If you are a skeptic of climate alarmism, then you will know that coal, oil and gas will continue to be popular for decades, maybe centuries.
Most of her 'markers' such as lumber and copper prices have had a rough year with big increases and subsequent decreases. All this happened in the recent past. Prices are now back to what they were before then. IOW prices have NOT decreased so much as reverted to what they were. As to the dollar's rise, it is totally due to China's malaise. It points to massive change coming in the way things are done. Supply line disruptions will lead to changes in the way corporations source their parts and raw materials, the virus is making everything more difficult, but that should self correct once the virus is under control. Interesting that China is shooting themselves in the foot by alienating trading partners and neighbouring countries as well as using their own, ineffective vaccine. Tech disruption is a constant in this century and will continue to impact legacy companies, but that is the way it always is. Note the absence of buggy whip manufacturers today compared to 100 years ago. No, we will not have massive deflation.
gas is dropping because they are shutting it down. an electric car are not a big thing with 10 mill just sitting.
Cathy might be right, but if the market votes against her, her fund will still decline. In the short term, you may lose money with ARK invest, but over the long term her funds will outperform market.
Electric vehicle adoption might be growing, but it has a looooong way to go before it eclipses traditional auto sales.
Im confident to say this to anyone over and over again. The stock market will never crash from the same reason twice. Eg, Not from another financial crisis such as 2008, not another tech bubble of 2000, etc… That's why it's impossible for most people to predict a stock market crash more than once.
Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance wealth, a great career, purpose is the result of hard work and hustle over time. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
If I've learned anything this last decade if the msm is against them they're probably the good guy
The biggest issue that I have with Cathie Wood is she creates logic without any real empirical evidence to support her predictions. The growth stock rally since 2000 can be attributed to the Fama and French 5 factor model which is a mathematical model with supporting empirical evidence. Within the model, value stocks are expected to outperform in periods of rising interest rates and underperform in periods of lowering interest rates. Note that since 2000, we have seen interest rates decline from about 5.5% to 0% over that period of time, and value underperformed and growth outperformed as expected. We have observed these trends for at least a hundred years. Cathie on the other hand is more of a technical analyst who makes up some mathematical model out of thin air that explains her technical analysis. There's no historical supporting evidence of her claims. It's been said that 'only analysing past results, one can always come up with a theory that has never been wrong'. She is the exact reverse opposite of this. Ignoring past trends, you can always come up with some logic about the market that sounds correct to support a prediction about the future, but there's no guarantee that one didn't make a mistake in that logic if it hasn't at least been back tested in history
Money isn't "lost" or "gained"…
It's simply "transferred" from 1 to another
Pls provide any source which shows hybrid or electric cars are more efficient than fossil fuel cars. Your assertion does not make it true. If assertions made truth, then I would be the most 'interesting and handsome' man alive.
sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo shorts as in plural only including Dr.Burry? That's really how dead shorts are that you can only find one guy lol? Short volume is at an all time low.
Cathie is doing her job right. She may not have all the answers, but, she is bringing light to what she is seeing and making that thesis public.
Cathy is right about her deflation guess, but what doesn't seem to be considered her is that the government is not going to sit on it's hands and let deflation run wild. They will counter with inflationary measures because they have to. If they don't get the inflation they need they can't service the growing debt.
I am so lost by Cathy woods video titles. One day she says this will go up 1000 fold next she says the Mkt is crashing.
agree but we still need to see % of people and businesses that will stay focus only on the short term solutions – I guess those could be only small businesses. make sense what she is saying, also due to pandemic and all natural forces which makes people more awake means we all turning back narutally to sustainablity mindfulness and understanding that slow processes and integrity are the real values that are limitless beneficial
People who think electric cars will win the day is wrong. They are a fad because they are cool and that is all. I won't say that they are not important, but it seems that they are being shoved down our throats. All these car companies are throwing their lot in with this and surely its because of Tesla and their numbers. Here is a question, how would we salvage them? Cause I know in Europe that they just park them in fields because they are just too expensive to process. What kind of battery waste would there be? Who would want to buy one after you had it for maybe 10 years? Considering if it worked or not. A market can always adjust and money is always to be made but like damn. Imagine have one of these cars in a place where there is rolling blackouts or just straight up not having power. If we couldn't sell them here then just like almost everything else, it would be sent to Africa to be burned for the metals cause how the hell would they work on them. I think the car business will crash and burn when environmental taxes are put on them for their batteries, big energy cost, and way bigger repair costs.
The federal reserve is going to crash the market on purpose and taking a huge payout and exit. They work for China now.
So basically she's predicting something that has never in the history of the stock market happened, happens. OK
Cathie Wood is correct. DON'T PANIC! It is the Bear$, who advise everyone to panic instead, who will be proven wrong in time. It is the continued support of policies that allow legalized lending at amortized rates that spells our doom, not interest rates or inflation. A $1.00 hotdog still costs $1.00. Perspective.
I think that in the world of 30 years ago, the main parameters we see today would have led to inflation and stock price correction or even crash, but the great productivity increment we see and we can forecast can contain inflation or even lead to deflation.
I’m still not sold on electric vehicles, but I’m confident i’ll know more in the next 5-10 years.
I wonder if the EV market can compete on its own without government subsidies, both to the manufacturers and the buyers in the form of credits.
I also wonder what the true environmental benefit is because most of the electricity used to charge these vehicles still comes from fossil fuels, worldwide mining has gone up substantially, very polluting, for the rare metals for the battery, and the batteries have a limited lifespan meaning the car is scrap once the battery weakens, meaning you need a new one to replace = more pollution, vs a gas engine that can last forever if taken care of.
Cathie Wood is right about those types of stocks being winners, but her timing is all out now and the smart ones are pulling their money knowing the crash is imminent if not 10-20% adjustment at least. Being heavily exposed all in like many are now and why housing is way to prices with no real value, will lead to many living in tents and cars soon like 2008, but like the Gods we worship too, you cant tell people whats real and whats fake, humans never learn….
I would think about this cause I really need to invest in crypto before it rises more than it’s now,
I'm no longer waiting for the stimulus check because I earn $22,000 every 14-16 day's recently🚀🚀🚀
Childish jealousy, all these commentator are envious of Cathie's success. Cathie is the real deal!
Dude the last video you said inflation inflation there's gonna be tons of inflation were screwed then this video you're basically saying the total opposite like make up your mind
I TRADE OVER MONTHS NOW, WATCHED COUNTLESS OF EDUCATIONAL VIDEOS ABOUT EVERYTHING, RISK, PSYCHOLOGI , CANDLESTICKS , PATTERNS ETC AND I HAVE BEEN MAKING LOSSES TRADING MYSELF… CAN ANYONE HELP ME OUT OR AT LEAST ADVICE ME ON WHAT TO DO?