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Investors have been worrying about an impending recession for years, but the market has only continued to increase in value. Recent economic data is showing that such worries may be confirmed in a major way. Cathie Wood has predicted many economic trends. She foresaw the growth of disruptive technologies, the recent commodity crash, and is now seeing something not many have caught onto yet. Cathie is now seeing a trend that will cause many investors will start to panic and may even lead to a recession. This video will explain exactly what those indicators are and what serious risks are ahead.
Before we get into the massive shift that is about to occur and spark worries of a recession, we have to talk about the events that are building up this disaster. The pandemic initiated a variety of supply shortages. Consumer prices increased dramatically and supply chains couldn’t keep up with the renewed consumer demand from the recovery. The most renowned instance of this is the chip shortage, which has affected almost every company in some shape or form. Demand for chips is at all time highs while supply chains are still recovering from pandemic related issues. This exuberance has increased chip prices to new highs, which might seem unprecedented, but it’s just part of a bigger cycle that always happens with chips. The way that the chip cycle works is quite simple. First, consumer demand for chips increases dramatically in a short period of time, which leads chip prices to increase. After chip suppliers see the high consumer demand, they will then quickly try to build new production plants, which takes around 18 to 24 months. By the time these new plants are created, consumer demand has already disappeared while supply chains are beginning to ramp up. This is because chips are durable and do not have to be replaced that often, so all the consumers that recently purchased chips do not need more. Ultimately, chip prices decline as supply exceeds demand. Because of a lack of sales, chip suppliers then have to slow down chip production. At the same time that this happens, consumer demand begins to increase as consumers start to replace their old chips. This leads to high demand and low supply once again. The cycle continues again shortly after. Supply chains see high consumer demand and ramp up production, only to find out that consumer demand has already disappeared.
This cycle always happens over and over again, but right now we’re in a very unique situation. AMD CEO Lisa Su recently stated that “We’ve always gone through cycles of ups and downs, where demand has exceeded supply, or vice versa. This time, it’s different.” The reason why this time is different is because the pandemic has exaggerated the cycle to unprecedented levels. And just like every cycle, what goes up must come down.
The worst part about this is that it’s not just happening in the chip sector, but almost every single good. Suppliers are panicking to meet consumer demand for goods, but that demand is already starting to disappear because consumers have already purchased their goods. Lisa Su stated herself that the chip shortage will likely end next year. She said, “it might take, you know, 18 to 24 months to put on a new plant, and in some cases even longer than that. These investments were started perhaps a year ago.” Using Lisa Su’s estimate, we will likely see a sudden increase in chip supplies in 6 to 12 months. Cathie Wood knows that supply shortages are real and are still apparent, but she is seeing some signals that the cycle is starting to inflect — in other words, the tides are turning. The supply of goods is starting to increase dramatically as demand is already losing traction. This is not something that is only chip-related by the way. The downwards inflection of the supply and demand cycle will affect all goods, whether it be laptops or hand sanitizer. This impending collapse will cause many investors to panic and worry about an upcoming recession. Cathie doesn’t think that a recession will actually happen, but knows that investors will begin to expect one.
Join Interactive Brokers here: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=casgainsy&url=%2Fen%2Findex.php%3Ff%3D1338
Link to the research report detailed in the video: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28967/w28967.pdf
Casgains's Recommended Investing/Business Books: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DI8ca5GLEfQXU34uplO3E3w6YHXbvMbK1JR-GxXBeUc/edit?usp=sharing
My Second Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPkDot_lMk7HB_c68HubbUg
Twitter: https://twitter.com/casgains
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Contact for business inquiries only: casgainsacademy @gmail.com
Investors have been worrying about an impending recession for years, but the market has only continued to increase in value. Recent economic data is showing that such worries may be confirmed in a major way. Cathie Wood has predicted many economic trends. She foresaw the growth of disruptive technologies, the recent commodity crash, and is now seeing something not many have caught onto yet. Cathie is now seeing a trend that will cause many investors will start to panic and may even lead to a recession. This video will explain exactly what those indicators are and what serious risks are ahead.
Before we get into the massive shift that is about to occur and spark worries of a recession, we have to talk about the events that are building up this disaster. The pandemic initiated a variety of supply shortages. Consumer prices increased dramatically and supply chains couldn’t keep up with the renewed consumer demand from the recovery. The most renowned instance of this is the chip shortage, which has affected almost every company in some shape or form. Demand for chips is at all time highs while supply chains are still recovering from pandemic related issues. This exuberance has increased chip prices to new highs, which might seem unprecedented, but it’s just part of a bigger cycle that always happens with chips. The way that the chip cycle works is quite simple. First, consumer demand for chips increases dramatically in a short period of time, which leads chip prices to increase. After chip suppliers see the high consumer demand, they will then quickly try to build new production plants, which takes around 18 to 24 months. By the time these new plants are created, consumer demand has already disappeared while supply chains are beginning to ramp up. This is because chips are durable and do not have to be replaced that often, so all the consumers that recently purchased chips do not need more. Ultimately, chip prices decline as supply exceeds demand. Because of a lack of sales, chip suppliers then have to slow down chip production. At the same time that this happens, consumer demand begins to increase as consumers start to replace their old chips. This leads to high demand and low supply once again. The cycle continues again shortly after. Supply chains see high consumer demand and ramp up production, only to find out that consumer demand has already disappeared.
This cycle always happens over and over again, but right now we’re in a very unique situation. AMD CEO Lisa Su recently stated that “We’ve always gone through cycles of ups and downs, where demand has exceeded supply, or vice versa. This time, it’s different.” The reason why this time is different is because the pandemic has exaggerated the cycle to unprecedented levels. And just like every cycle, what goes up must come down.
The worst part about this is that it’s not just happening in the chip sector, but almost every single good. Suppliers are panicking to meet consumer demand for goods, but that demand is already starting to disappear because consumers have already purchased their goods. Lisa Su stated herself that the chip shortage will likely end next year. She said, “it might take, you know, 18 to 24 months to put on a new plant, and in some cases even longer than that. These investments were started perhaps a year ago.” Using Lisa Su’s estimate, we will likely see a sudden increase in chip supplies in 6 to 12 months. Cathie Wood knows that supply shortages are real and are still apparent, but she is seeing some signals that the cycle is starting to inflect — in other words, the tides are turning. The supply of goods is starting to increase dramatically as demand is already losing traction. This is not something that is only chip-related by the way. The downwards inflection of the supply and demand cycle will affect all goods, whether it be laptops or hand sanitizer. This impending collapse will cause many investors to panic and worry about an upcoming recession. Cathie doesn’t think that a recession will actually happen, but knows that investors will begin to expect one.
We believe that the next big worry is going to be recession. Investors have been worrying about an impending recession for years, but the market has only continued to increase in value. Recent economic data is showing that such worries may be confirmed in a major way. Kathy wood has predicted many economic trends.
She foresaw the growth of disruptive technologies, the recent commodity crash and is now seeing something not many have caught on to yet kathy is now seeing a trend that will cause many investors to start to panic and may even lead to a recession. This video will explain exactly what those indicators are and what serious risks are ahead before we get into the massive shift that is about to occur and spark worries of a recession. We have to talk about the events that are building up this disaster. The pandemic initiated a variety of supply shortages, consumer prices, increased dramatically and supply chains couldn't keep up with the renewed consumer demand from the recovery.
The most renowned instance of this is a chip shortage which has affected almost every company in some shape or form. Demand for chips is at all time highs, while supply chains are still recovering from pandemic related issues. This exuberance has increased chip prices to new highs, which might seem unprecedented, but it's just part of a bigger cycle that always happens with chips. The way that the chip cycle works is quite simple.
First, consumer demand for chips increased dramatically in a short period of time, which leads chip prices to increase after chip suppliers see the high consumer demand. They will then quickly try to build new production plants, which takes around 18 to 24 months. By the time these new plants are created, consumer demand has already disappeared, while supply chains are beginning to ramp up. This is because chips are durable and do not need to be replaced that often so all the consumers that recently purchased chips do not need more.
Ultimately, chip prices decline as supply exceeds demand because of a lack of sales. Chip suppliers then have to slow down chip production. At the same time that this happens, consumer demand begins to increase, as consumers start to replace their old chips. This leads to high demand and low supply.
Once again, the cycle continues again shortly after supply chains, see high consumer demand and ramp up production, only to find out that consumer demand has already disappeared. This cycle always happens over and over again, but right now we're in a very unique situation. Amd ceo lisa sue. Recently stated that we've always gone through cycles of ups and downs, where demand has exceeded supply, or vice versa.
This time, it's different. The reason why this time is different is because the pandemic has exaggerated the cycle to unprecedented levels in just like every cycle. What goes up must come down the worst part about this is that it's not just happening in the chip sector, but almost every single good suppliers are panicking to meet consumer demand for goods, but that demand is already starting to disappear, because consumers have already purchased their Goods lisa sue stated herself that the chip shortage will likely end next year. She said it might take you know, 18 to 24 months to put on a new plant and in some cases, even longer than that, these investments were started. Perhaps a year ago, using lisa sue's estimate, we will likely see a sudden increase in chip supplies in 6 to 12 months. Kathy wood knows that supply shortages are real and are still apparent, but she is seeing some signals that the cycle is starting to inflect. In other words, the tides are turning, the supply of goods is starting to increase dramatically, as demand is already losing traction. This is not something that is only chip related by the way.
The downwards inflection of the supply and demand cycle will affect all goods, whether it be laptops or hand sanitizer. This impending collapse will cause many investors to panic and worry about an upcoming recession. Kathy doesn't think that a recession will actually happen, but knows that investors will begin to expect one. The events that she is foreseeing will likely cause an upcoming correction rather than a recession, so don't expect a 90 crash or anything to that degree.
The market correction will also be dragged down by an overall consumer shift which we'll talk about soon. We believe that the next big worry is going to be recession. We don't necessarily believe there will be one, but if we're right on what's going on out there and inventories are starting to build up. We've been saying for some time that the inventories in the system are much much higher than i think most people appreciate.
But where are they if they're, not in the auto dealer, lots well they're in our garages and in our driveways? And everyone knows the familiar story of stocking up on paper goods we're not going to have to buy them for quite some time. So a lot of inventories are in households, we are talking about supply chain bottlenecks and we believe that they will be with that. They will be sorted out as the economy slows down and inventory accumulation in the home begins to slow down as well. So we're we've said for quite a while, and we still believe this that that the risk we believe to the global economy in the years ahead is not inflation.
It is deflation and you can tell from the uh car example. What's going on here, oil prices go up and there are a couple of reasons: demand for oil could go down. First of all, we've all learned how to work from home so no need to commute. For that reason, we've learned to shop online more and more, no need to commute.
For that reason, this is not like the 70s when we were hostage to opec. We know that we are near the top of the cycle for durable and non-durable goods, but overall consumer spending is not going to just suddenly drop off as a whole. That brings us to the last factor, which is that consumers are starting to spend more money on services such as eating at restaurants or traveling. These businesses are deemed as recovery stocks because their sales are recovering, as this is happening. Consumer spending on goods is decreasing. This is not a correction that impacts all businesses, but rather cyclical deflation, specifically for goods and not services. Kathy wood is seeing some signals of this macroeconomic movement which she discusses in the following clip and if we're right, we're probably going to be seeing some surprising stories about inventories out there at stores. Because we do believe that there has been a lot of double and triple ordering and now that the consumer is shifting away from goods uh at the margin to services, for obvious reasons, we're vaccinated, we're we're out and about now there will be too much inventory.
We believe on the shelves we're beginning to get some rumblings of this this week. Coals and bed, bath and beyond were hit hard, and i do believe - and one of the reasons were downgrades. I think analysts are beginning to sniff out this excess inventory and the loss of demand, as as consumers move from goods at the margin of course, uh to services. So there you have it kathy woods prediction that the next big worry is going to be a recession.
Kathy believes that consumers have built up their own inventory and will single-handedly cause a deflationary crash in goods in the short term for growing companies that are usually supply constrained. This shouldn't be an issue, however, for the vast majority of businesses that sell goods. This correction will likely be devastating. Let me know what you think about kathy's prediction down below kathy makes a lot of bold predictions, but this one seems to be quite reasonable.
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Everything we will buy and require service will become more expensive over the next 3 years. You will need a wheelbarrow of money to buy your weekly shopping.
Lady we know that when Hitler Joe and the hit mobb came in office no more freedom for its peaple where a communist country
I’ve seen only repeated bear videos from this channel, is it just the algorithm or is it the entire schtick here?
Glad I loaded calls this week. Let me know when she starts buying so I can sell 😂
The "Economy" is a phony, managed mess of gamblers. The "Real Economy" is not the same as the economy although many do not know they are different. Gas prices will achieve a recession in the real economy while the economy continues to soar. Don't be confused by corporate media using those terms as if they are the same.
This woman has been flip flopping for ever! I think shes a little late to the party as usual. She may need a new pair of glasses as she isn't seeing anything coming down the highway clearly!
What's going on is planned by design so mostly I disagree with the deflationary theory the great reset is my concern.
Bro your vids are ungodly edited/cut and not fully transparent and truthful. Don’t put peoples interviews in your vids if they are edited together…
if only you know what the future say's, you'll know that indeed cryptocurrency is the future, investing in it now will be the wisest thing to do.
meh. just look away from you portfolios for a few years if you get jumpy
what rubbish i buy when every1s nervous, of course u do?! LOL but u never know how long it will go lower, with a remark like that?! 🤣
That’s why the market will crash because they are getting people to actually invest. It will crash to steal. It won’t crash because of any other reason. They will make up a reason lie they printed too much money and didn’t know it was going to happen. But that will be the clueless excuse after they crash the market and steal from the poor even more than they already are
Quit lying it crashes anytime someone invest in anything. A crooked thief full proof system.
This stock will pop again soon, the upside is so crazy good ! Bakkt is the future, trust !
I was at the car dealers yesterday there is a glut on used cars and no new cars as they shift to electric inventory. Dealers have overpriced used cars and sold out most of their inventory. You can probably buy an electric car easily. Tesla’s numbers are way up because that’s all they sell. Port holdups are political in nature not natural . Ie non union truckers banned from ports
You know how to make a small fortune?
Start with a large one!
Thanks for the video, We all have problems; the way we solve them is what makes us different, i pray anybody reading this God will solve all your problems.
Worse
That NATION will collapse.
Everyone lies
Now?
Even when telling the truth.🤔
Your comment section is filled with trash ass bots and scammers. No meaningful discussion can take place there
I can see the headline now Johnny what that consumers in jail for? Oh well he fail to by Rx coverage part D sentence 15 to 20yr- “0” is the bottom
My prediction….there's going to be a recession with a chance of higher or lower interest rates, oil may go up or down in price in the next all within the next 10 years…..🤥
Will we get deflation while the government is printing fiat money like there is no tomorrow??
I think not.
realized that the secret to making a million is making better investment. I always tell myself you don't need that new Car or that vacation just yet and that mindset helps me make more money invest:ng. For example last year I invested 70k in blue chip stocks and crypt0 s (with the help of my advisor of course) and made about 380k, but guess what? I put it back and traded with her again and now I'm rounding up close to a million. Delayed gratification always pays off
She is absolutely correct about deflation coming, this will bring it's own set of problems. We'll start to see this by next spring. But between now and then stocks will be fine, but recession will be visiting during the last quarter of next year.
Please. The pandemic did not initiate any supply chain problems. The government did that. And everyone who was going to die died anyway. Sad but fact. We need to hold the correct people responsible for damaging the economy. Tell the truth.
I’m sorry but Cathie has been wrong about every single prediction. Perfect zero!
When oil hit $60, Cathie said oil was going to drop below $10. It’s at $84. She got lucky with tech booming. I’m out on ARK
She said we should be good until 2026 because of Millennials
Demanding being high could be a good thing…. New. Jobs etc… Slow down in sales? Maybe dont think this is exactly correct crashes happen in some economies and not others demand will. Level off at some point too much supply can be worse sometimes but with such a constant demand you haven't sold me a crash for that reason alone… The things that cause the big crashes lately are over investment in housing an real estate…. Or investing that loses value… Over time… And requires more investment and maintaining… Corrections happen all the time… As long as people have jobs the market doesn't slow down prices drop… The market will go up because new jobs its honestly worse now it will likely get better as more places reopen. Chips isnt the only part of an economy or investment.
Nice video! I was able to build a big income stream during the covid-19 pandemic investing with a professional broker, Mrs Charlotte Payton.
inflation is what is being discussed here .. not economy collapse. Also cathie wood is known to be a gunslinger in terms of investing. I have read many reports of her ARK business to be less than statistical analysis excellent and rather the opposite. She makes good points however but I do not think that an Economy collapse is near at all. Crazy talk. However inflation is here especially for the USA economy.
iiiOMG !!! I can't thank you enough you are a definition of genius tire I am delighted to be working with you
Any more pearls of wisdom, Cathie?
Couple of months back you were talking about a pinnacle in world economy, refuting bad news, everything being in an excellent shape.
You change your opinion so often, I get dizzy
Inventories are not starting to build up in the global chemical supply chain. I work with some of the largest suppliers in the world and we can barely keep OEM running, let alone all the other major manufacturers. Inventory is sold out through 2022 already. Everyone keeps thinking this will be over sooner than it will because they’re so far from the ground level. I’m in the middle of the supply chain and IF people can get raw materials, they’re at record prices. None of this is sustainable and either the bottom has to drop out of demand or supply needs to ramp up, but supply is maxed out. So price increases will cause demand to halt eventually in my opinion.