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Video about cyclical deflation:
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Cathie Wood recently uncovered a movement that is about to destroy one of the world’s largest asset classes and drag down the global economy. Every country depends on China for their manufacturing of almost every product in existence. Cathie believes that we will see a sudden unexpected slowdown from serious risks in China. This video will go in-depth on what the frightening implications are for several events in China and how investors should react to this news.
Everyone knows that China’s government has been cracking down on their economy, but not many recognize the dangerous risks ahead. Over the past few decades, China has benefited tremendously from embracing a capitalistic system. The country’s GDP growth has been outstanding in the past, but this may not continue in the future. If China’s growth suddenly slows down, then the entire global economy will suffer. China’s recent crackdowns against capitalism may just cause exactly that. China has built up massive debt levels over the past decade, and one negative event could lead to a fatal crash. So why does this all matter? China controls a large portion of the world’s economy, but there is one asset in particular that the country has complete dominance over. That asset class is commodities. Commodities are the backbone of every manufactured item that you see — we’re talking about lumber, gold, iron, nickel, copper, and the list continues on. Out of all of the exporters of commodities in 2019, China exported 13.7% of the world’s total exports, which was worth over 2.4 trillion dollars. That amount might seem enormous, but that’s only one side of the equation. China is an even larger consumer of commodities, as China’s demand for commodities represents 15% of the entire global GDP. And when we’re talking about some commodities in particular, China represents over 50% of the total demand. To give you an instance of the scale of this demand, think about what would happen if 50% of the demand for steel suddenly halved in value. Such an event would be devastating for the entire world. China obviously plays a major role in everyone's lives, and Cathie believes that within the next 6 months, it will become apparent that China’s economy is rapidly slowing down. The CCP is playing with fire and devastating consequences are going to come as a result of that.
Given everything that we know, it is possible that China will go into a recession. One of the most serious risks in China is a collapse in real estate, most notably with Evergrande. Evergrande is one of the largest real estate development companies, as the company has over $300 billion worth of debt. Evergrande is struggling to pay the interest on its debt, which may seem like a special situation. Contrary to expectations, Evergrande is not the only real estate development company that’s in trouble. There are many other companies just like Evergrande that are failing to pay the interest on their debt. For instance, luxury apartment developer Fantasia Holdings recently failed to pay $315 million worth of interest a couple weeks ago. Modern Land, a Beijing based real estate developer, also reported that it needs extra time to pay a $250 million bond. Homebuilder Sinic Holdings also recently announced that the company is going to default on $250 million worth of bond payments. All of these real estate companies are failing to pay off their debt, and this may lead to a massive collapse in real estate. Cathie believes that this is a major risk to keep in mind not just for China, but also for the global economy.
The real estate market is a fundamental part of China’s economy and could create a major slowdown. The CCP definitely does not want a slowdown to happen and has been doing everything in its power to prevent such an occurrence. One of the actions that the CCP has been implementing recently is to increase productivity through regulations. The CCP’s most notable regulation that should theoretically boost productivity is a restriction on gaming, which may force citizens to be more productive.
Video about cyclical deflation:
https://youtu.be/HrlXfddlEjY
Join Interactive Brokers here: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=casgainsy&url=%2Fen%2Findex.php%3Ff%3D1338
Link to the research report detailed in the video: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28967/w28967.pdf
Casgains's Recommended Investing/Business Books: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DI8ca5GLEfQXU34uplO3E3w6YHXbvMbK1JR-GxXBeUc/edit?usp=sharing
My Second Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPkDot_lMk7HB_c68HubbUg
Twitter: https://twitter.com/casgains
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/casgainsacademy/
Contact for business inquiries only: casgainsacademy @gmail.com
Cathie Wood recently uncovered a movement that is about to destroy one of the world’s largest asset classes and drag down the global economy. Every country depends on China for their manufacturing of almost every product in existence. Cathie believes that we will see a sudden unexpected slowdown from serious risks in China. This video will go in-depth on what the frightening implications are for several events in China and how investors should react to this news.
Everyone knows that China’s government has been cracking down on their economy, but not many recognize the dangerous risks ahead. Over the past few decades, China has benefited tremendously from embracing a capitalistic system. The country’s GDP growth has been outstanding in the past, but this may not continue in the future. If China’s growth suddenly slows down, then the entire global economy will suffer. China’s recent crackdowns against capitalism may just cause exactly that. China has built up massive debt levels over the past decade, and one negative event could lead to a fatal crash. So why does this all matter? China controls a large portion of the world’s economy, but there is one asset in particular that the country has complete dominance over. That asset class is commodities. Commodities are the backbone of every manufactured item that you see — we’re talking about lumber, gold, iron, nickel, copper, and the list continues on. Out of all of the exporters of commodities in 2019, China exported 13.7% of the world’s total exports, which was worth over 2.4 trillion dollars. That amount might seem enormous, but that’s only one side of the equation. China is an even larger consumer of commodities, as China’s demand for commodities represents 15% of the entire global GDP. And when we’re talking about some commodities in particular, China represents over 50% of the total demand. To give you an instance of the scale of this demand, think about what would happen if 50% of the demand for steel suddenly halved in value. Such an event would be devastating for the entire world. China obviously plays a major role in everyone's lives, and Cathie believes that within the next 6 months, it will become apparent that China’s economy is rapidly slowing down. The CCP is playing with fire and devastating consequences are going to come as a result of that.
Given everything that we know, it is possible that China will go into a recession. One of the most serious risks in China is a collapse in real estate, most notably with Evergrande. Evergrande is one of the largest real estate development companies, as the company has over $300 billion worth of debt. Evergrande is struggling to pay the interest on its debt, which may seem like a special situation. Contrary to expectations, Evergrande is not the only real estate development company that’s in trouble. There are many other companies just like Evergrande that are failing to pay the interest on their debt. For instance, luxury apartment developer Fantasia Holdings recently failed to pay $315 million worth of interest a couple weeks ago. Modern Land, a Beijing based real estate developer, also reported that it needs extra time to pay a $250 million bond. Homebuilder Sinic Holdings also recently announced that the company is going to default on $250 million worth of bond payments. All of these real estate companies are failing to pay off their debt, and this may lead to a massive collapse in real estate. Cathie believes that this is a major risk to keep in mind not just for China, but also for the global economy.
The real estate market is a fundamental part of China’s economy and could create a major slowdown. The CCP definitely does not want a slowdown to happen and has been doing everything in its power to prevent such an occurrence. One of the actions that the CCP has been implementing recently is to increase productivity through regulations. The CCP’s most notable regulation that should theoretically boost productivity is a restriction on gaming, which may force citizens to be more productive.
Here is some wisdom my grandfather taught me which apparently the corporate fools seem to overlook with respect to China. …."don't put all your eggs in one basket"
I follow Cathy and am an investor in the ARK funds. She has been very accurate to date, so I would take what she thinks very seriously. That being said, I don't think China will accept a recession without extraordinary measures.
The PCC are deliberately crashing their economy. They have run the modelling through their supercomputers and it shows this will have a crippling effect on the U.S. economy. Then were off to war folks.
This does not strike me as bad news. Why fear these things?
Let OPEC push us all even faster towards the adoption of EV’s.
Let China lower our real estate prices.
China can never crack down on the true source of wealth creation in the West – innovation. All they can do is just gaze on enviously as they copy us. And Always from 3 steps behind.
This is really a great video, but as for me I make huge profits on my investment since I started trading with Mrs April Christiana, her trading strategies are top notch
just keep building because you're too big to fail. Watch average folks lose their money, then they get bailed out. Lather, rinse, repeat.
The big 3 auto co’s and oil & gas need to crash bc they’ve been holding us all hostage for generations!
As long as China is not honestly addressing its problem it looks like China will lead us to a world recession. Pres. Trump's policies were good for the U.S.; where have Biden and the Democrats taken us?
ROFL on the keyboard China experts here! China will keep all commodity prices down even if they have to sacrifice a few high tech companies gluttonous profits. This will keep living standards affordable unlike the the West where the cost of living is driving people with 3 jobs homeless. They are applying Maslow's hierarchy of needs, to try to fulfill the Deficiency Needs first that would allow the masses to advance to the Growth Needs. That's why China is largest market for Tesla auto, French luxury goods and rest of the world's name brand products. China is not your grandfather's communist state any more.
If you guys are wondering how china can have a such a hold on the commodities market. It's because they are one of the very countries that buy united States and Europe's scrap metals. You can think greedy politicians who have invested foreign interests in that. United States used to be a top supplier in steel.
Ridiculous. China will not crash, western commentators cry wolf like this every 5 years or so. China is cracking down on its super rich, and the super rich in the western world are worried because its most likely going to work and bring the country greater prosperity. Plus viewing housing as purely an investment decision is completely out of touch with a majority of people. Most people buy a house so they have a place to live, they aren't going to sell just because the price goes down, people need a place to live. Lower commodity and housing prices will be a net benefit for global economies, as many necessities of modern life have become too expensive for most global citizens. The wealthy will lose out, but so what
China's main problem associated with it's real estate problems, stems from the "male ego/female expectation" in China. No man in China can get a piece of a*s in China without a house/home…due to the pressures from the societies women….who expect everything from a future man still.
People are buying the illusion in China…that is to say….men are carrying the load of expectational living in China. Buy a home….then go look for a woman who will accept me,…at any price. The bubble is bursting…and the whole fabric of China is about to unravel….setting up worldwide changes in the attitudes of manufacturing and moving products from China…to a restored world-wide production framework; my feelings.
What you are saying does not make sense on the larger scale. Yes it will affect it, but commodities being cheaper for the rest of the globe is a plus, except for commodity producers. Commodity cost decreasing is price pressure in the consumers' benefit. She hit so much in this one, she was everywhere. But Finance may be in jeopardy according to the exposure to the Real Property markets. China just let all the banks jump in, to not pay it back. Make no mistake, this entire scenario is a play book by the invisible hand guiding the markets. There are no mistakes. China is in absolute control.
Sorry, as a Director, I would fire every manager who risked so much concentration of the company's products in China. Would even take bake bonuses – cash & stock – granted during good times. But this is not unusual. The striving for short term gains, driven by the idiots on Wall Street, is the biggest problem. I like companies who plan for longer term horizons.
When it comes to finance, for every loser, there's a winner. Many will get poorer and just as many will become richer.
Major slowdown? China aimed at 6%GDP growth in 2021 it seem it's going to be 8%. China may grow slower in the 2022-2025 period but more stable. I suppose they will keep over 6% percent targets during the global financial meltdown in this period. Everything China does now is the preparation for the global financial crash…. China will probably be the only country still growing at that time
Cathy Wood is going to be epically wrong about deflation and it will damage her reputation for years. She risks becoming the next Peter Schiff laughing stock.
Cathie feels that China rooting out corruption is playing with fire. She must be heavily invested in corruption.
It isn't China. It is the monsters the try to control us with finance and government.
And the US bubbles won't bust? Onesided view is always dengerous. Who is to say Cathy Wood does not have her own agenda?
i find that funny that they were blocking ant finciale as it was paralel to the regulated fin, and now we get to: "oh well, our regulated fin, ain t that better
Pandemic continues, Abrupt IRREVERSABLE, climate change worsens, flooding out China's food crops. extended hot drought does the same in the "world's bredbasket," the USA. The blue ocean event occurrs within two years followed by habitat collapse in a year or two.more. Machiavellian politics and econmics? Not so relevant anymore.
We are well within Earth's 8th mass extinctin and it includes us. old geologist
My initial social credit profile will be so bad, I'll only merit the debit card version of the availability of goods n services.
Well if we haven’t closed down pipeline we wouldn’t have to try and buy from other companies. And remember reusable energy driven by electricity is driven by fossil fuel
fuck Eu thanks to the new rules that makes it so you cant trade warrants I lost out of a 4000% run….
Factory slow down and closures in China because of lack of resources is just as big as real estate
Dont worry about China…you should be more concerned with the coming inflation in the US!! China will know how to macro manage its economy.