Hey everyone welcome back! Oh let's see here there. Oh there we go perfect, welcome on back to another market, open, live stream. So today we have chairperson, jerome powell uh, and he is going to testify before congress really just to get his confirmation in uh. But what's really incredible, is you know this is going to end up turning into a conversation about uh what what he plans to do for inflation? And it's going to be quite interesting because the uh uh you know congress is going to have the opportunity to grow up on whatever he wants and they're going to look for political zingers uh on on doing whatever they can to uh.

To basically make him feel. Like he's backed into a corner, so grilling jerome powell is uh is always an interesting uh sight to see and we'll certainly put together a summary of uh. What ultimately happens? We think jerome powell will stick pretty darn heavily for uh. You know we'll stick pretty heavily.

According to script for jay pal, i i don't think he'll run too far off, but you never know. Uh we've got loretta mester mentioning that she sees three rate increases penciled in for 2022, though uh the market's starting to really price in 20 or price. In four and j pal could add some color to this. If jpal says hey, you know uh.

If we need to we'll go to four and it's starting to look like we're. Gon na need four that could uh lead to a little bit more red for stocks which, right now the stocks are mostly tentative. We've got a .07 on the dow 0.07 on the s p to the down sign and the nasdaq futures down 0.19. The big question is going to be inflation tomorrow.

I think the markets are pricing in 7.1, as a cpi print for december. I think it's way too early for us to actually expect any form of uh any form of uh real inflection point to the downside. Yet, though uh that would be a welcome, surprise and and quite frankly, uh the markets, uh uh, looking for any kind of positive surprise right now, uh, because at this point i i think everybody's wondering can't really get any worse uh for uh for for stocks and The answer is yeah, absolutely uh. It could get a lot worse.

Uh, for example, as as many folks are hoping for a rotation to the downside in inflation, you could actually still have a worsening of inflation first. So, for example, inflation could end up rotating to the upside actually and see if we're expecting a 7.1 print. What, if all of a sudden, we get a cpi print of uh, 7.2 7.3 four and we end up seeing something like what happened with the european uh. You know block where uh or the euro zone, where all of a sudden food led to higher inflation, or maybe a higher rents wages well, whatever ended up leading to higher inflation, and you ultimately got a higher cpi principle, we'll see but uh that's tomorrow.

So, tomorrow, 5 30 a.m will be a big uh big early start again to get that uh inflation read tomorrow, uh that'll be a big moment. I i wouldn't be surprised if we, mostly just if today is mostly just resigned to uh, to waiting for tomorrow and uh, while we wait for tomorrow. It's worth noting that there's been this little inflection here in the 10-year treasury yield. If you grab the 10-year treasury.

Yesterday we hit 1.8 and it really looked like we were on a trajectory to continue through 1.8, but we came back down. This is where we were yesterday at about 1.808 at a high. We did rotate right back down and a lot of folks believe that this right here is actually bond buying. That's uh, increasing the price of bonds, so bullish bond buying on an inflation report tomorrow that inflation will come down and that leads to bond buying.

If you buy bonds prices for bonds go up, then yields go down and that uh, that is in some regard, potentially what's happening here. Uh always worth, though, also keeping an eye on our cryptos as sort of a risk measure, and you don't necessarily have uh any kind of uh a risk off uh movement here, specifically, because if you look at here's yesterday morning when we opened this was yesterday morning, When we fell to 36 sorry uh 39666, and we haven't really escaped that vacuum or that void, unfortunately, the more we look at the btc price, the more it just seems like we, we fall to a level and uh. We hang out there for a little bit and then we rotate back down. It hasn't been a great pattern honestly for for btc.

So, for example, if we look over here uh, we can clearly see this. This fall from our 60 levels and then we chill out over here at the support lines. Then we get some form of liquidation fall uh. Then we fall a little bit, we get a little bit of opium and then we get a fall and uh.

We we're consistently playing the same game here and so now. The question is, is, is this chart over here of pain, going to push down to about 37.6 and the answer is it entirely? Could uh, especially if we get a higher inflation rate tomorrow, higher inflation print tomorrow is well almost certain to push uh. If, if we get higher than i expected that it's almost certain to push uh btc down to that 37.5 support level uh, you know you can't really call certainties, but uh crypto and tech has is not going to be happy about any kind of movement to the Upside in already a very highly anticipated high read for inflation uh, you do have tesla. That was up 3 yesterday presently down about point seven one percent in the pre-market, so seeing some of that pain extend from yesterday morning yesterday, remember folks, we were down as much as four to five to five and a half percent on tesla.

Only to end the day up, uh three percent after uh after some good old dip buying uh, we saw the the same on most stocks that most stocks really started off on the left on the low and uh ended on the right side. Here on sparklines on a high uh, no guarantees for all, but uh we saw that pretty consistently. If we look at the pre-market, we've got uh build-a-bear up seven point: eight nine percent uh build bill.com. It's almost made me want to say build, but i'm thinking of buildback better and that's just not happening right now - uh hold on, let's see here, laura mester, says important.

We take action to bring inflation down right. That's actually interesting. I think that jerome powell, when he uh talks in congress today, is going to have a very similar approach. I think he's going to be very clear.

Like hey, look, inflation's uh, clearly more than transitory, it's been much more persistent and longer lasting than expected and uh, and so it's important to take action to bring inflation down. Wouldn't surprise me for john paul to basically just say the same thing verbatim in congress today. So i'm not really expecting a big u-turn or, like some form of surprise, in terms of what j-pal is going to say today, uh this uh, this does come mid-day uh somewhere, i believe. Is it eight or seven california time? Let me, let's see if we can find out from paul testified all right.

Well, let's get to the answer that all right, j, pal meeting, j, patrick pal yeah, you know a lot of pain, really came yesterday when uh goldman sachs really came out heavy on the four rate increases that that's almost really what seemed to uh start the day Off, oh, there could also be a lot of focus on uh trading and the trading scandal at the federal reserve. I would not be shocked if you get a lot of uh drama over the trading scandal, which, unfortunately, the trading scandal is a distraction from uh the the actual stock market, uh and and broader uh broader markets, which is good uh. That's not to say it's not important uh to to deal with, but uh. It's certainly uh.

You know it. It gets the discussion off of inflation uh, at least for time being so uh all right, i'm not exactly sure what time um but um we'll get to the bottom of it and we'll circle back. Okay, always circle back and i'll select circle back psyche. You know you always want to circle back uh, all right, so we'll get we'll, probably see elizabeth warren going off on uh.

Remember it's senate confirmation hearing so you're not expecting to get uh aoc in on the mix and she's got covet anyway, and we don't want jay pal with coven uh, there's! No! No green, mario hat! There's a green luigi hat! What you talking about p3, all right uh, so you know actually it's funny. I've been getting a lot more of of this question and it's something. We've we've uh been talking about. Uh in q and a's is that hey is, is now when there's pain in the market, more of a time to buy into things like stable coins and like ironically, uh stable coins in my opinion, have uh an increasing risk threshold as prices of cryptocurrencies go down.

So uh, you know this is where the more prices go down on things like bitcoin ethereum and the stock market, the less risk you actually have on the stock market, bitcoin and ethereum. Remember that this is something we also talk about by the way in in the uh the psychology of money right. This is why there's a whole program dedicated this is and endless psychology, but anyway, the the more prices go down on bitcoin ethereum and stocks. The less risk you have.

This is why there are so many buy the dippers. The more prices go down, the less risk. You have sure buying a company like a firm at uh 75 is way less risky than buying it at 150. It entirely makes sense.

Could it go down to 40, of course, but what has a bigger risk threshold? It's obvious, so the problem with stable coins is that as prices of cryptocurrencies go down, you have more of the potential for increased liquidations, especially if we hit levels that we haven't seen before. So, let's just say something went really bad in the market and we had eight or nine percent inflation right and then bitcoin went down to fifteen thousand a level that we haven't seen in in really years since, since what 2019, uh and uh. What what or well maybe early 2020 but anyway, uh what happens when when and if we potentially start threatening those stable coin markets and all of a sudden, stable, quits, potentially uh, start suffering from liquidations, and then people who believe that these stable coins are there for Them because they're stable but you're actually yield farming that eight percent, and then you don't get them the the most dangerous time for you is actually when prices of cryptocurrencies are falling down now. I think this is a total extreme case scenario.

I i don't think it's likely to happen, but it's just worth noting that as cryptocurrency prices go down, your risk and stable coins goes up, whereas in cryptocurrencies themselves your risk is actually going down. So you've got this like inverse relationship. The more prices in crypto go down the less risky they are. Ironically, though, the more risky stable coins are and the more prices of cryptocurrency go up, the less you actually have risk and stable coins so a little bit more of a detailed explanation there, but uh anyway uh all right.

So let's see here, oh all, right! Let's take a look here, so build-a-bear is moving nicely here. I want to see quickly in the in the suit world. What's going on with build-a-bear workshop miller workshop yeah, and i see all the comments about people like i'll take the nine percent. I don't care about.

The risk, okay, all right, so it looks like build-a-bear raised outlook. We've got uh. Oh, we had earnings that came in uh raises fiscal: was it earnings or guidance? It was an 8k 8k guides for record profitability. Wow! That's really big and that's good for retail as well.

It makes me wonder if uh we're going to see a move on like macy's, no, not really only 0.16 on macy uh. So not not a huge movement here, uh, not a real, consistent move on tacky either. Palantir down so we're gon na we're gon na get the bell here in just a moment, but uh really, the the key is um. First, first 30 minutes, let's see if we end up getting this.

This massive plummet, like we did yesterday uh yesterday, was just a a terrible crash to the downside, yeah followed by this insane recovery rivien by the way down three percent on news, uh um, partially on on news that the chief executive or chief operating officer left the Company last month, so it's a little old news, but they just reported and trips in the stands where everybody 99 percent of the people got separate. Didn't this thing's better, but you don't mean stephen king. He doesn't read yeah. It looks like about 60 to 65 green.

Actually, if anything, it looks like we're sneaking up on the green side there on the s p, 500 uh. So let's see how the s p 500 is doing. Somebody here mentions that i'd like to add to the risk assessment that it can be argued that, as crypto prices rise margin goes up yeah. You know that that's true, but you also kind of see margin as like uh layering, on top of a foundation right.

So let's say you have a margin market margin of 20 on crypto and it got you to 40 000 and then now, let's say you add 80 leverage and then you get to 100k right. Fine great! You evaporate. When that margin goes away. You evaporate from 100k to 40k, but now you start going down to 19 now you're eradicating now you're, starting to dig into the foundation now you're starting to hit people at the core.

You know most people have an average cost basis of over forty thousand dollars for btc for most of their portfolio uh, and so when we're under 40k. That's when you actually start seeing the diamond handers suffer real actual losses. You know it's one thing when one like your gains go down. It's quite another thing when, like your original principle, uh starts going down, then you start getting a whole new psychological effect that that begins to occur uh in in the market, so uh.

Okay. What do we got here? We've got: let's, let's look at the losers first, so uh emery moving down. Oh wait! No okay! That must have been a leftover bug there. So uh owlette's down six point: four: five percent, almost under two dollars: two dollars and a quarter here: voyager digital down a five dollar, a five point: four five percent sitting at about ten ten bucks right now: uh rivien, a three six.

Six to the downside. Let's see if we got the indices moving in any particular way down s p, moving down, let's see if we're getting that broad movement here, uh across the same here, uh yeah, it does look like the nasdaq is accelerating losses right now and dow jones and s P: 500: turning a little bit more red out of the gate here, as folks brace not only for jerome powell today, but tomorrow, cpi data. Really, the question is why why be in the stock market today, if you don't need to be, you could just come back to you know, tomorrow, after the cpi, print and and hedge yourself, against that risk uh, remember we uh, we did an er look. If you decide to finally join the amazing programs on building your link down below, really encourage not only watching the lectures but also watching the live streams, the first 15 minutes you can they sort of serve as new additional lectures, um not directly as new lectures, but They are effectively the same thing and uh and and take a look at what we talked about regarding hedging uh yesterday and really incredible, but uh yeah you've got a little bit of a move to the upside down here on etsy and let's see here, tesla yeah Tesla as well so maybe just uh the first couple minutes here again of cell pressure, but the spy is still rotating down right now.

Yeah first solar down about a third of a percent you've got tattooed chef down jpm, also down about a quarter 150. One percent right now, a lot of folks, believing that the banks are the the best opportunity to escape to shelter so to speak, but that's not necessarily always true. Even though we have got an increasing rating environment, it's a lot's going to come down to the impression of what the federal reserve is going to do with their uh, their runoff uh. If the federal reserve raises high at rates three four times this year, but slows down on their balance sheet, runoff that could end up being quite bullish for the stock market.

So you could actually end up having a rally in a higher interest rate environment for the stock market uh with with a more dovish fed in terms of balance sheet. Runoff that'll be big. You know slowing the pace of that vacuum: cleaner, okay, arrival, toast moving a little bit here, three to f uh, two to three percent. Each uh looks like peloton lucid, moving up as well, so a little bit of excitement coming back into the market, build a bear up.

13, really, really good move for the recovery sector. I'm actually surprised we're not seeing more of uh of a lead on by some. Like nordstrom or macy's, i mean two percent one and a half percent at dutch bro kind of basic. It's relatively generic here, not not extremely exciting las vegas sands up five percent - that's great but uh in the downside, probably more limited to small caps.

Again, let's sort by cap here, sorting by market cap and then looking for green right here, it looks like sorting by market cap. We have one two three green out of about what 15 here or so uh going to the next set. Okay, a little bit more 50 50 over here in that that uh 200 to 500 million dollar range. I think that's mostly because the market is more broadly green.

If i go to the megas yeah, no, not that consistently divided today in terms of uh market cap. So i don't think you can sort by market cap today and really have a have a conclusion in terms of what what's going on in the market. Uh tesla did turn green in now. It's bobbing with red over here, so clearly you're, seeing that tentativeness over uh really okay, what what are we gon na do? Well, probably the best thing to do if uh in many for many individuals is nothing but uh.

The next best thing to do might be just sitting on the sideline i mean if we end up getting a rally after cpi, you could always buy back in if we end up getting a crash and you're on the sidelines great. If you're hodling your stocks and you're seeing them go down down down now remember to look at the count. Are you increasing your count or you're decreasing your account so we'll see it's always pain in the markets, but paid in the markets tends to be transitory. I know people don't like to hear the word transitory, but it's true pain.

Doesn't last forever euphoria doesn't last forever and uh we're at relatively high levels of pain. That's not to say the markets can't go down substantially more, don't get me wrong, but when the s p, 500 corrects roughly five percent, we we have consistently seen a rotation back to the upside uh to the trend line now no guarantees, but we just have not Seen an s p 500 collapse of more than five percent very frequently, and yet we haven't seen it since uh. A roughly election period. Election period were about 353.

353 is a high of 351.. 351 is a closing high 325, so 325, divided by 351, puts you about okay, yeah about seven and a half percent in october of 2020. That's the last time! You really had this this larger than five percent drawdown and uh. You know recently over here in september.

We had a larger and longer term drawdown as well. Folks, often wonder like well, how long is is the pain going? To last i mean well, i mean a bear market could last quite a long time uh. You know we like what we saw in in 2018, where, where you could last, you could last three months uh, but you could also go back to the early 2000s, where, where, if you invested at certain points between 2000 and 2002, you could have been flat for 13 years, so a lot of fears of that sort of stuff happening, but anyway uh 453 over here down at the bottoms of about 430 or so five, six, seven percent - something like that uh this. This sell-off here was more like a six-week sell-off.

Now, here we've had sort of three spurts of sell-offs: that's spurred in november, uh, mid uh, end of november mid mid december and then of course, beginning of the year here. So we'll see if we end up returning to trend. So far, returning to trend has been relatively popular for the s, p, 500 and uh, and sometimes we even correct above it a little bit but uh we're not really getting a breakout above that trend. So, okay, uh, let's see here, let's go to yeah.

Let's see how baba's doing right now, alibaba welcome to the alibaba hotel casino 3131, still on its nice rotation over here yeah. This charlie munger move may really have uh cast alibaba as almost uh, some form of a of a safety plan. You have snapchat up about 3.4 neo, 1.9 roblox up as well with lucid and so fine and no no real major losers here. So it could end up just being a calm slightly rain day today, which i i don't know that markets would be necessarily opposed to a relatively calm day in in the stock market, but you're still down about half percent on the dow third, on the s p And a quarter on the nasdaq: let's get the bond movement here.

Yeah 10-year treasury sneaking up a little bit again: 1.767 percent there on the 10. okay. So let's uh, let's take a peek here. What uh? What news we got here so uh, yeah, well bond market, worries about the floodgates so yeah bond, runoff uh, let's see here, jp morgan's diamond jamie diamond issues, warning uh, and this in addition to this vaccinated warning here, jamie dimon has uh, has come out very clearly.

Yesterday that, whether it's three rate hikes or four rate hikes, he believes that uh consumers, uh and consumer debt is at an in in one of the most phenomenal places that we've been uh of uh places of stability and of strength, and he believes that uh 2022 Will be a a very economically strong and successful year? He's quite bullish, so you know quite interesting to see. Uh jamie dimon come out so strongly in favor of optimism for 2022 when right now it feels like what we have is a lot of pessimism, uh and there's a lot of reasons to be pessimistic but, as usual, all um, all relatively short-term uh pessimisms. All right. Let's uh, let's see here, is sparkline still a little too early to tell on some of these sparks here for rotating more to the downside, uh it does look like nvidia's is continuing to provide some discounts along with etsy etsy sitting at 180.

Go grab nvidia here down about 1.25 sitting at uh 270. Nowhere near that discount that we saw yesterday yesterday morning was ridiculous, getting down to 256., so uh red day following a red day here, but nowhere near that that sort of pain that we had yesterday we'll see, though we've got some red candle sticks here down about One point: six: two and thea tesla tesla, also rotating back down to that about one percent sign to the downside: s p 500 uh also continuing to sell down yeah, so yeah dk ng, no kidding. Look at that uh yeah yeah. There's there's a comment here about the transmission and the cdc for vaccines.

Yeah, that's one of the the biggest downsides about the vaccines is, is uh transmissibility if anything at best seems to be marginally useful in preventing transmission, but that's always been the argument for a mandate. Has been oh, but it protects other people like like uh, you know um, you know the seat belt protects you, but uh speed limits protect everyone. You know these these sort of generic arguments uh. The problem is it.

Vaccines aren't doing a great job at preventing people from getting sick and then being able to transmit it uh, and so it's uh, it's a bummer. You know i, i think uh. There was so much excitement in euphoria 2020 when the vaccines came out uh in in the fall, and we thought that's it. This is the end of the pandemic.

A lot of hope, nope, who will oh well we'll get through it uh again best case scenario is: is omicron, hopefully proves to be the most mild variant heart ghost out to anyone in the hospital uh? Obviously we know hospitals and and icu's are approaching peak levels which we've seen before. Fortunately, with shorter hospital stays, hopefully we can get people through the system quickly and healthily. Uh anyway, uh s p, 500. Continuing to push to the downside here uh.

It seems like minute. After minute, here we continue to get red candle after red candle here uh. Fernando here says. I think many are selling individual stocks and putting money into index fund etfs and explains why stocks included and those have been up uh while the rest of the market drops.

Yes, uh an industry bias has been a pattern. That's been pretty consistent throughout uh really 2021, where uh it's just been relatively easy to rotate out of individual stocks and into the indices, and that has led to the expectation that the indices are going to continue to outperform and it's unlikely to be the case. Uh indices then tend to uh outperform for certain periods of time and then and the combinations of individual stocks can do substantially better. So it just depends so p3 says you'll be totally fine.

If you just get a booster every two months, uh yeah, i think uh. I think nobody wants to continue to get repeatedly jabbed. I think three jabs by biden. Faunchi, is enough yeah anyway, so uh build a bear up, uh, seven percent, not not as high as as what we had.

So it's rotated down a little bit peloton three and a half okay x, paying just a matterpor at 1.63, so something's up something's down now nothing necessarily scary uh in today's market and nothing necessarily crazy. On the news front, i will uh let's, let's look in the back here. Let's see what the suti's are saying so uh stocks resume losses. Is treasury yields near 1.8 percent again right? We saw that sort of little inching back to that 1.8 tech sell-off, shakes out options, market, permabulls, primables and options.

That's one of the the bummers is that, if you're constantly investing in options as a larger part of your portfolio, it's just it's scary. When uh, when, if you're you're in the environment of uh rapid declines in the stock market, because a two percent decline on indices could be a ten percent decline on individual stocks and a ten percent decline on an individual stock options, you know on the underlying stock. Could be a 30 40 decline in the security value of that option, so it's uh. You just get evaporated so quickly with options, but then again, that's why you can make money so fast.

So yeah powell, that's what i thought: okay yeah! It is 7am so 7am for powell, so that's uh! That's about 14 minutes away for powell, all right! Let's uh! Let's take a look at how btc and cryptos are moving this morning, a lot of talk about a death cross coming back to uh, to btc here and that's when you get this potential 50-day intersecting with the 200-day right here which, if we continue on this trend, Just for a few days of even trading sideways, probably get the intersection over here of the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average moving through the 200. This is a bearish death cross. The inverse would be called a golden cross. Uh shorter term pain signal minute wise many wise, looking like we're, potentially bouncing off a little bit of a floor that floor coming about six minutes after the bell a little bit of recovery.

There, let's go grab. Let's see here, tesla yeah a little bit of recovery. There, in about uh yeah, the last last five to ten minutes here, looks like some some hopeful enthusiasm again: etsy uh nvidia, almost all showing that similar rotation here carnival cruise line still going down. Uh, you know, norwegian cruise lines is taking uh some ships and using them as quarantine homes for their staff, who end up getting sick with army.

So, in other words, they literally have coveted cruise ships to uh to house folks, and it makes sense because you get a lot of individuals who they can't just go home. You know, let's say your your ship is docked over at the bahamas, yeah or or off the coast of the bahamas. Where, where are you going to go? If you get covet and your home is in the philippines and you, you can't even afford the flight back. So uh the the cruise line - operators at least norwegian, is using cruise ships to house sick employees.

Imagine having so many sick people that you need a cruise ship to house them. Oh yeah yeah a lot a lot of sick days getting used this year. That's kind of how the year started crazy all right what else? Let's uh, let's take a look at barons, see what we got here, all right, so barons airlines are canceling even more flights. Yeah, that's not good, especially for freight.

You know again. Fedex was complaining about the potential for more supply chain issues as uh as they have staffing shortages for flights. It's not just people flights, it's uh freight flights and again - and this is why uh the the uh - these continued variants, starting with delta? Oh really screwed up the uh, the inflation estimates inflation estimates were were that we were going to see some form of rotation of the downside in inflation by the end of 2021, which i think would have been true had it not been for the delta curve uh. This is where uh, you know, delta, so substantially affected supply chains that we really double down on inflation, and i think the same is is is true to some extent of omicron that uh omicron's, incessant, uh spread is leading to so many people calling in sick and Staying home that there's there's no way supply chains can can really catch up in an uh omicron era.

So but then again, hopefully this this all ends springtime but uh. Then again those the supply chain issues could be lingering. You know it's. We.

We still can't get a uh clear, okay, we're off to the races. Let's recover! Oh well, so uh pfizer's, omicron vaccine to be ready by march who's, ready who's ready for your next jab, so soaring home prices might slam. Builders, ooh nordstrom looks like a cheap play on luxury retail and what else protara? How is portera doing really after the uh the barons piece on them? They had a really exciting piece on them. That's up about a percent today, but uh.

The piece came out over the weekend saw reports of employees on quarantine, getting just one bottle of water or served plain steamed rice on the cruise ships, yeah uh, it's it's uh. It sounds terrible and it is uh but uh. The the employee conditions on these cruise ships, even just in when it's not because of covid, are quite terrible. I mean you're talking about very, very cramped living spaces, uh four bunks to uh little rooms, uh you're, you're, asking for covet, spread and uh and and uh.

You know it's it's really like third world country style living. It's it's not! It's not luxurious for uh the employees at all uh okay, so i almost kind of uh almost liken it to like the the foxconn dormitories uh in china. Unfortunately, so uh moderna down about 4.2 ibm rotating down, let's see what's going on with ibm, because otherwise you know for ibm to be down 4.3 percent well, the rest of the market is, you know, i mean volatility is up. We got some things: rotating green uh.

Let's, let's take a peek here: what's going on with ibm uh, okay, ibm ooh vaccination requirements for truckers entering into canada yeah! That's that's not going to go over well, we'll take a look at that in a sec. I don't particularly see bad news here on ibm ib. Oh here we go ibm downgraded as ubs cuts. Estimates got it there.

It is so a cut from ubs on ibm c canada, trucker vaccine requirements, canada resists pressure to drop vaccine mandate for cross-border truckers. You know that, that's just that's just odd, you could say you know, just truckers come on man. Really truckers are going to come import covet. I mean i guess they got to go to your your diners and and your hotel.

Well, maybe not necessarily your hotels but to your restaurants or pit stops and that, but my goodness, the uh, the the polarization and uh that covert has brought us, is insane excel fleet running a little bit here, along with toast, both up by just over six percent. Uh both showing some enthusiasm here and running less enthusiasm than what we're seeing with build-a-bear build-a-bear lagging a little bit matterport nice enthusiasm as well about 4.2 percent. Some of these uh substantially lower prices than what we've seen loose it here about 3.8 percent. The more this goes up.

The juicier, some of those shorts, become don't have any shorts on unlucid right now, still still hopeful for the company as a pure eevee competitor. A lot a lot of spark lines here to the upside, so fi exp, uh, amc, arcimoto. A lot of sparklines to the upside uh looks like substantially more than to the downside, see the indices again. Uh.

No one complained of santa spreading cove, i don't know. Uh looks like the nasdaq technology once again doing the best out of the indices. Now. This is something that we also saw yesterday.

At the end of the day. Yesterday, the nasdaq ended up outperforming the s p and the dow. This is something that, if you're an s p investor you might want to watch for is that, is it possible that uh tech stocks end up getting a little bit of an edge over? Let's say the s p uh, where right now, you're you're? What maybe 23 24 tech in the s p, whereas nasdaq's much more purely attack and so uh, it's possible that it's time for outperformance of the nasdaq over the s p, i always like finance.google.com as a little tool yeah we could throw in here qqq and we Can compare that to uh the s p, uh and uh looking at these year to date here you could see qqq down about five point: eight one percent, which uh qq means cry more, but uh s p down about 3.14. If we go to the one year, though uh you, you still see that same almost two percent divergence, qqq up 20.22 and s p of 22, so they're relatively moving together here.

A lot of this is probably because you, i think you probably do get uh traders that uh jump between the two when you, when you get these sort of uh, you know well, it's basically how you end up creating these swings to the upside or down side Below the other um anyway, but but more broadly, they've been moving almost in lockstep, okay individually, here volatility we're only sitting at 20.6 folks, it's kind of amazing, because if you think back to the beginning of what we saw in december, look at this folks, we went Over 30. over 30. and what's crazy, is uh, you could go back to uh the prices, then, and, and the prices have been more i'll go to the five-year-old. The prices have been even more ridiculous, see five years.

Oh look at that spread there. There you go between the uh, the qqq and the s p yeah. It really actually shows you a divergence there from the beginning of the pandemic uh. They were much tighter uh but uh from the beginning of the pandemic.

The nasdaq really outperforming there so incredible yeah. Oh well, okay! So, let's see here uh, okay, what are we getting here? Matapor 5.22, a little bit of a little bit of a comeback here. If i really believe, if, if we get, if we get a downside shock on inflation, and maybe some dovishness, then as a result from the fed meeting at the end of january on okay, well, we don't have to you know, suck all the money out of the Market or or whatever, on uh, on bond uh bond on whiting, then uh there could be some bullishness. You know the markets remember this folks.

The stock market is pricing in a a worst-case scenario: uh a set of pain for uh for for really march uh. To may, because march to may is is when we expect interest rates to uh start going up and, and there's this really, this impression that uh, when, when rates go up stocks, go down, that's that's sort of the impression the market has, but that's actually not what We saw at all in uh in the in the last rate hike cycle. It was it all really had to do with balance sheet runoff when the balance sheet was being run off. Stocks did miserably as soon as the balance sheet started, rotating back to the upside uh, where the runoff was paused.

We hit sort of a floor and we started growing the balance sheet. Again we uh, and that was in 2019. We saw stocks, take off again uh, and this was all uh in in uh, mostly in an interest rate environment. Where rates were going up.

There was finally an inflection point down in uh in the rate hikes but uh if you correlate the charts or watch my video from last night, much less association with rates going up much more having to do with that balance sheet. Runoff. So we'll see what what um, what happens anyway, uh j pal's uh meeting, begins in about two minutes again: expecting uh him to get grilled on inflation trading uh. He could easily say something that could move the market today.

It's uh, there's some excitement coming in. I think uh trade wise to some of these smallers over here excel fleet canoe, toast, matterport, uh, docusign neo. You know these. These tend to have outsized swings depending on uh momentum, trading and momentum trading seems to be heading a little bit to the higher side.

Today, uh tesla's, almost green 0.16 to the downside, uh, but overall er tomorrow is going to be the big big determinant, not so much uh or solely the uh. The uh federal reserve chitchat in here, because the fed, i think, is mostly going to punt to cpi data tomorrow. That that'll be the big tell so all right. Well, uh there you have it so uh, hey! If you haven't yet checked out the programs on building your wealth lifetime access daily, live streams course, member live streams where we do some q.

A real estate analysis really expose you to a different way of thinking about your money, uh hoping to help you build your wealth check out those programs for the birthday code down below and folks, we'll see in the next one thanks. So much for being here, cheers.