Numbers please the numbers please, and here they are our consumer price index for the month of april headline expected up. Two tenths is up three tenths up three tenths and do remember. This is a big drop from up one point 1.2 last month, which was the highest since 2005.. If you strip out the all-important food and energy expect it up four tenths a bit more up, six tenths up six tenths, the high water mark here is up nine tenths, and that was in april of last year and that went back to 1981.

and the moneyball Year-Over-Year headline up 8.3 percent: it breaks the streak of seven higher year-over-years in a row because in the rear view mirror we have 8.5 percent and of course, 8.5 takes us back four decades. It is a small reprieve, but a reprieve. Nonetheless, and if we look at core x food and energy year over year, same dynamic, it's higher than the six percent expected joe - it was up. 6.2 6.5 in the rearview mirror is the highest since 82, so we've definitely moderated just a bit.

We see interest rates. Well, they have changed rather dramatically rates across the board. Pretty much, and especially the long maturities have moved higher from down five to up four or five over three percent again on a ten year. And the reason is quite obvious is that, even though there is moderation that the moderations are small, but we do want to keep a very close eye on several things here, and the first, of course is is that food and energy really did throttle up to the Upside, so when we looked at headline uh when you stripped out food energy, the fact that it moved up showed us that those moderated a bit in the headline number yesterday.

What did we learn? 437, a gallon, that's a new high for gas. So some of that feature of energy prices moderating a bit, maybe uh something tenuous at best i'll. Kick it back to the team to discuss uh some of these numbers? Well, i we have some really imminent. I guess, but i got to go to mike first, because the market reaction has been swift uh.

We talked just a few minutes ago, mike santoli, about whether it was asymmetric risk. I think it was asymmetric. There was nothing that was going to make people happy and it was not as much of a respite. I think, as we had hoped, the market immediately sold off yeah, i'm not sure about the counterfactual.

If we somehow got a light number, i think the market would have embraced it. The issue is in the previous days. Last few days you actually have seen yields come in you've, seen market implied inflation projections, they're imperfect measures, but you did see people moderating their expectations for what inflation would be down the road so leaning on that foot. I do think the number comes as an unpleasant surprise.

Now you can still start talking about whether we're in where we're past the peak of inflation, but today's number doesn't settle that in any satisfying way. So i think we're stuck with uh kind of the same market and the same drivers that we thought we did. You know a couple weeks ago, we'll never know the counterfactual but see. I think that the market was was looking for a respite and then assumes we're going back up.

So i don't know if it could have been cool enough to really, because if the market would have then said well, it's going back up and i don't know but but we will never know tyler goodspeed uh uh. What do you? What this is a a 30 or 40 year change in in what we've come to expect, so it it is jarring, it is jarring and joe. I wish you i i wish we'd had a chance beforehand. I was going to say i'm going to take the over on this one.

Look. I have a couple initial reactions. One is there go real wages for the month of april uh? The second reaction is that there were some transitory factors that were actually bringing this number down. I'm looking at used cars which shaved four tenths of which were down four tenths of a percentage point.

There are some base effects, uh that weighed down on inflation last month, uh, but i think that it's a mistake to be looking at a lot of individual components, because the bottom line is this is a broadening inflation problem. When you look at any survey of businesses, any survey of households expectations have risen and i think that we're seeing a real broadening of the inflationary pressure, particularly with rent up 0.6 and owner equivalent rent up 0.5, those are big, big components of core cpi. Okay, that's enough for now so basically, 8.3 percent uh still a 40-year high higher than anticipated. The consensus was 8.1 a little bit higher, not as high as previous month, so essentially not as bad as it could have been, not as good as people anticipated, basically somewhere in the middle.

The stock market obviously so far is not liking. It, let's see how it plays out here throughout the day. My initial reaction is very simple and i said it today on money talks. When you look about inflation, you have to consider if inflation will come down, what will drive it down so there's a few factors: driving inflation, right supply chains and supply of money.

So you have this insanity right now that basically prevents the inflation from coming down. Despite the efforts of the fed, so the fed has announced hey, the party is over. The cheap money era is in the rearview, mirror, we're basically tightening up more interest, less money and it's taking effect in the market. You can see it, you can see the stock market, you can see the economy, it is slowing down, but unfortunately it's not slowing down fast enough, because on the flip side of it we have a massive reopening.

So this reopening is causing people to go outside and consume more so now, because things reopen people need more stuff and there's a lot more stuff that are being consumed right now than during the pandemic and on the flip side of it, we have a major crisis In china, zero tolerance policy, which means china, is locked down, factories are not producing the ports, aren't unloading goods there's no export import properly. China is basically locking down for at least a few weeks, maybe a few months who knows on the other side of the world. Basically, russia - i don't know if it's out of sight at all, but basically russia and ukraine is going into what seems to be a long and christian war because another side can afford to lose. Obviously, ukraine has proven, and you know heart goes out to them.

They've proven that they will fight till the last man. They will not give up an inch. On the other hand, putin just cannot afford to not win. I mean he's actually done if he doesn't win this war.

So it's turning up to be this insane russian war, which means that these two countries that are massive producers of wheat, energy, gas, oil, palladium and basically all of these things, are now going to go spiking up because of this crisis, i mean nobody is throwing wheat In ukraine and there's the sanction issues, so energy gas oil commodities going up look at what's happening with the price of fertilizer. Another example. So massive demand because of reopening china is basically out of commission, russia and ukraine, which produce about 30 or 40 of the world's wheat, not to mention other metals and energy is basically, everything is just right now creating a supply chain crisis, which is not even yet At its full max, so in that aspect, the efforts of the fed are too little too late. Unfortunately, so, even though it seems like inflation, is slowing down a bit from 8.5 to 8.3, i think it's mainly optics.

I think we end the year at a much higher inflation. I don't think it's going to go slowing down from here on on, but hey you know, maybe i'm wrong, maybe i'm right. Who knows, of course, i hope to be wrong on this, but seeing the macro effects of everything that's going on. I'm not optimistic because ask yourself this question: when you go to the grocery store, when you go to the convenience store, when you go to the gas station, when you go to the hotel or restaurant, do you feel like an eight percent increase in price, or does It feel more because every time i spend money right now, it feels way more than eight percent, and that just shows me that even the cpi number, as manipulated as it is, is, is kind of showing you where things are at and i'm not optimistic.

But hey. My initial reaction about it, the palantir deep dive video coming out later today check it out in a few hours, see you later and all the best make sure you also check out money talks. We have a brand new show coming out today. At 10 am go check it out.