What's going on guys welcome back to the channel appreciate you guys tuning in kind of a lot going on this morning, i want to get everybody up to speed on all the things that have been really going on in the market over. You know called the past couple weeks so probably going to look at gold oil markets, bitcoin, marijuana and uh. That should pretty much be about it. So first thing we'll do is kind of look at bitcoin right now you got a lot of people that are drawing flag patterns like this on the market for bitcoin we're looking at this wedge set up in in most of those uh traders that may or may Not be doing that um, they probably don't look at probability statistics.

So what they're looking at is something just like this, so they're going to be looking at the market like that, all right and they're. Looking for you know, oh it's, you know potentially going to break out and over the resistance, so on so forth, right, whereas for me and for many of you guys we're gon na be viewing the markets more like um more like this, and we go okay. So the reason that we're stopping here is because we're at the statistical mean we're at the mean average. So when we look at the market here on bitcoin we're pretty much just going okay, so the reason we're bouncing is you know a couple.

Statistical points here. Reason we're having resistance, is the mean average? So we know that. That's the break point so sure you can draw yourself a pattern if you would like, but the bottom line is. We know why it's stopping where it's stopping.

So we know what's creating the resistance and we know where the resistance break is it's. The statistical mean average okay, so bitcoin right now has essentially gone from the 69 000, all the way down to 32 000 and we have bounced back to the statistical mean okay. So for right now, you're not going to see a big ripping move until you get through your statistical mean now do remember that this is going in a downtrend right now sure we could break out and things can change, but for now market is still kind of Downwards in that move, okay, now i'm going to hop on over to the spine uh same thing with the spine right, we're probably heading back towards the statistical mean right. So you can see.

This is the mean average. We got really oversold bounce really oversold bounce and now we're kind of pushing up and out towards the mean average. Okay, so don't be surprised if you see the sp y uh getting up more towards that uh. Basically, 460 price.

Okay - and you really only have to be concerned about big bearish moves if you were coming back below 455.88, which would be this level right here, okay, so that's a really strong level for the time being. So until you get under that, probably pushing in that direction towards the mean average all right, looking at the nasdaq qqq same thing, let me delete that old text all right. The market generally likes to trade back and forth, to the mean, so we get up to about there good chance, you're going to be met with some sort of resistance. It's probably going to pull the market back so good chance.

We could see nasdaq trending more towards that 375 price. All right going to look at ford's last cl to help kind of emphasize that point we're just talking about the mean average again, things like to trade two and from the mean back to the mean bounce okay. So right now, oil has gotten back up into the plus three weekly level. So that's why you're getting a pullback uh? Your current support is the negative two weekly or sorry plus two weekly, so um.

Ideally, if the market stays below this price point we're going to go into a little bit of a sell-off on oil, um yep, okay, moving on over to um, some of the marijuana plays that have been going around tlr-y you can see. Tlry is spiking all right. So right now, tlry acb cgc, pretty much anything. Marijuana related have been pushing up.

Awesome moves for right now, they're going to be voting on that legalization bill coming up. So in the event it does get legalized and then we can expect continuation in that part of the market that sector for some time. Probably if they don't pass, the bill obviously will go into a sell-off. But for now you should trade, the marijuana environment as a buy.

The rumor sell the news event, which basically means you're going to trade it as long as things are going upwards for the time being and as you get to probably two three a day anywhere from three to three to two days before they vote on it. You just sell, because you don't want your position to be swindled based on what these people do or don't do so you pretty much trade up, be an investor on it with the hope and the rumor and the excitement and the momo. And as those days approach, you start to sell off that position and that's basically, what's going to probably happen um, something that i do want to show you guys is this unusual whales, so unusual wales, twitter, posted um, they're, always posting something, but i know they posted Something about tlry and that's what i'm trying to find here give me one. Second shouldn't be too far away there.

We go all right, so here you go tlr-y um! You know i'm not going to go the whole in depth on this picture, but you can see that on tlry based on calls and strikes that people were buying, it was mainly eight you're not getting as much activity around 10, 12 and obviously 25. um. Let me check this really quickly: okay, yeah! So really what i want to point out is like this picture here you can see where most of the calls are bought. The eight dollar calls are bought, but you're not getting a lot of tens and you're not getting a lot of twelves right.

So when we go back and look at the chart right now, you will see that a lot of the eight dollar calls were being bought. But not tens, not 12., and if you can see right here based on standard error, which i will post more videos about in the future, you have your standard air plus, 3 and plus 4 right here, and you can see that the plus 4 starts at 10 Right, so to get to 10, 11 and 12, you would need this market to break out of its long-term standard error dispersion, which is far more unlikely to happen. So when you think about why were people buying, the eight dollar calls but not buying as many tens? Not buying as many 12s that would be, because for the market to go all the way outside of the blue and the purple it's way way harder than it would be, for just say the markets to go up towards seven to eight so again for people to Be buying here, it's far unlikely that that's gon na happen, as opposed to hitting seven to eight okay, based on probability, uh statistics, so uh with. That being said, that's part of the reason why those calls are being bought the way they're being bought on tlry, going to take a look at acv.

If you go look at acb, acb aurora, just another kind of penny stock move here, um, you know as long as momo continues up that's awesome but acb right now you don't really have a breakout long until you get over the price of 486. we'll go in A little bit closer here and we'll dial that in more so you guys can see see how the market stops there now we're getting a couple more lines of the but anyways just watch this all right. So we go back to this time frame. You can see.

There's a plus one weekly, that's where we stopped at the previous day, that's where we ran to yesterday or this morning after hours, one or two yeah after hours, all right. So now you can see why we're stopping where we're stopping there's a reason for that. We're a plus one weekly, it's a resistance, so if you're watching this yesterday and it's running all the way up and you're like when's it gon na top - and you see it topping here right, the reason it's topping here is because it's plus one weekly. So now you know that there's not going to really be an aggressive break point until you get through that particular price point, which is 4.93 all right.

Moving on over to cgc cgc, i think, is slightly more overbought than acb. So cgc is very similar to that. In terms of tlry, cgc is at a plus three weekly heading towards a plus four. So, in the event um, you start getting up towards like more towards like this price, you're, probably going to start seeing more selling action in the market, or at least people attempt to sell it down.

So it really kind of depends on how this whole voting thing shakes out again. If it passes, then anybody that's getting bearish in uh anybody who's getting bearish in this zone if they pass a bill, is going to get squeezed okay. Now, if they don't pass the bill, this is going to probably end up being where anybody selling in this zone ends up winning okay, so uh. We know that by the rumor sell, the news is probably going to happen.

So, therefore, as we lead up towards those 1057 prices and those higher prices on tlry more towards the purple area, we're probably going to get some selling action because people are going to cut their positions for the buy the room or sell the news sort of approach. But after that sort of selling action fizzles and they do vote on the bill - that's going to be what causes either the next drop or sort of the the next breakout. So kind of an expectation you might see here is that i'm going into next week - maybe we're up somewhere around here here and then we pull back just about a day before the announcement or two days before the announcement, and then the market will probably be over. So this is what i would expect for like cgc right, i expect cdc could probably go somewhere around there and then one two days before they make the announcement we're gon na start pulling back again.

We will not go below nine dollars. Nine dollars is going to be a price point that the market sustains to hear whether or not we pass or don't pass the bill. If we don't pass the bill, they'll probably jam it right back down under 8.93 if they do pass the bill, they're going to hold the plus three weekly and squeeze out anybody, who's short that would be sort of a theory of mine and then in the event That they do squeeze the market out and say cgc or tlry. The probability dispersion is going to exceed standard error.

Therefore, we would then start looking more up towards um. You know, maybe even like 18 bucks. I know it sounds kind of crazy but uh. That's the concept right.

Let me let me bring this back to standard error here, all right, so you can see where um the standard error price is right. Here, that's a known selling level. Okay. So if anybody sells here or just around here, okay and then they end up passing the bill to a yes that could then cause anybody, who's short in that area to get squeezed and then from there would start.

Looking at the next probability, zones uh to the upside, which could be all the way up towards, like 18 bucks per se, all right so um that covers us on sort of the whole marijuana discussion. We talked about the markets, oils good stuff, uh other than that there is um this guy agri. So agri is a penny stock. That's still up.

It's still holding we've been getting a lot more talks of food shortage this and that and the other - and this has kind of been one of those momentum movers off the backs of that so really should be keeping any sort of agricultural stock on watch and not To mention wheat, wheat is sort of trading at a high price point, but you should continue watching wheat to see if this ends up going. I guess you could say more of a breakout over the 11 39, so you can see that's the overbought area, so keep the agricultural plays on watch. Keep the marijuana plays on watch, buy the rumor sell. The news.

Um expect markets to continue increasing back, to mean reversions um. Your bitcoin play uh bitcoin's only going to be awesome if we get through this weekly uh mean and if we can sustain over the weekly mean. Otherwise, the market may end up just failing this kind of flag setup and falling back off. That mean that's a very probable thing of happening, as the market sells off the mean instead of breaking through right.

Everyone sees a flag pattern right, but a lot of people don't really understand that this is simply a mean reversion in a downtrending move, thus far. I hope this thing keeps going up, obviously, but that is your market video for today. Hope you guys enjoy it and i'll see you guys soon.