Boy, oh boy, it's days like today that you're glad you bought, but then you realize you bought higher than where we are today. But folks, don't even talk to me about korean margin calls. I don't want to hear it because today we're going to the moon baby because remember this folks over the past year, the s p 500 has rallied in six out of eight of the post-fed fomc meetings and boy. Oh boy, are we seeing that today and i'm gon na talk retail buying some things to watch for and some cautionary heads up but boy? Oh boy, look at this stocks like nvidia up five percent tesla of eight to nine percent.

Coinbase 14.4 coins also being moved to exchanges are at record lows right now, we're still elevated from uh early june. But when i say record lows i mean like compared to the last three weeks. Hopefully we get less selling pressure on btc because we're seeing way fewer coins head over spy up over 2.6 qqq up 3.2 lucid, affirm, 10 apple, google up over three and a half uh end phase up six percent. I mean these are some good good numbers.

So what's happening here, folks, well, part of it could be, in my opinion, a little bit of a squeeze. We've got a lot of shorts loaded up on the market and what i want you to look at is this chart here, which shows you over time. How many freaking put contract buyers are out there and it has exploded. The amount of people buying puts right now is insane, so it is possible that we're seeing some form of squeeze on these option buyers right now, retail buyers, mostly right now buying tqqqqq.

You can see that on the chart here, amazon, qqq spy and some arc k - you can see that on this other chart here and the more to the right you are, the more retail is buying that particular symbol. And so the question is hey. Is this? Maybe a bottom: if you look at the qqq chart, 280 seems like a pretty natural spot here. It is on screen and you can look at a similar feeling of a bottom over in european markets.

Well, we've got two charts here: the first one here showing you the potential for a large economic slowdown in europe already being priced into the markets, maybe and another chart here showing you that maybe we are bouncing off the bottom in the european market as well. At the same time, you've got this really weird activity where the russian rupal is now actually worth more than it was uh before the war, which is kind of crazy and putin's kind of like your sanctions, are like nothing to me. I don't know why. All of a sudden putin has a german accent, but anyway uh folks.

We just have to be realistic here. I love rally days like today, and hopefully we get a rally week, but we've got to be real here. Okay, we got mr bullard already telling us hey. Maybe we're starting to see uh our higher rates impacting the market.

Maybe consumers are pulling back a little bit and this is a good thing, because it'll slow down inflation it'll, let supply chain issues ease up a little bit, but these are the opportunities to not get overly optimistic. We don't want to go euphoric. I know it's just the first day of a rally, but these are times you really want to start thinking to yourself stay at a margin. Don't don't get too anxious like this.

Is it this is for sure the bottom. We still got a long 2022 ahead of us and don't worry like i'm, i'm mostly in this market. You all know that especially those of you in my programs on building your wealth. You know what my plan is.

You know where i have my money right now. You know where i plan to move my money when the time is right and you're going to be the first to know about it, which, if you want to be part of that, make sure to use the 50 off coupon code. A link down below price goes up again on friday, but folks limit your enthusiasm for going all in on margin or going into crazy options right now, although we do have volatility, dropping a little bit lowest level in the last three days makes sense. We got a big green day today, but personally, i think this is an opportunity for us to be cautious, get out of margin, don't go into margin on days like today.

Okay, you go if you're gon na go into margin, go into margin when you have a dream like i did the other day that i was i basically in my dream, woke up that tesla was at 4 20 and i'm like, oh god, and i went like Three million dollars deep into margin, and then i woke up the next day and it was at 150 and i was getting margin called bad dreams. Uh, so uh be careful with margin, uh close risky options. If you have them right now - and i want you to know about this - this is a really really important forewarning. Okay, we could still face for the rest of this year, a substantial earnings recession.

The market right now is trying to price in the fear that we're gon na have a recession like who cares: okay, gdp down one percent, or whatever year over year, like who cares that doesn't really affect us. But what will affect us a lot in the stock market is an earnings recession, massive guidance revisions to the downside, especially in consumer discretionaries, but honestly throughout all sectors, home builders, as home prices fall and their net asset values get written down, especially if we have a Real estate correction, which i'm expecting and planning for this, is why i dumped all my real estate - and i told you all about this - i expect and we're seeing this research we're working through this research right now, but we're already seeing signs of significant slowdowns in credit Card spending in just the last four to six weeks, both amongst lower income, cohorts and higher income cohorts. This is going to set up, for, i think, very, very disappointing numbers going forward for especially consumer discretionaries, but we keep thinking oh, but services and restaurants and travel hold up right. That's so fast stay tuned later for more data on this when we go through the entire report, but we're starting to get a little nervous that some of these numbers could end up coming in worse than expected, it's one of the reasons.

Since january, i've been advocating stay far away from consumer discretionaries. Now i have to say, i've been pretty dang tempted to buy some of them at some of these prices. In fact, in our last course, member live stream. We went through a fundamental analysis of shopify and just kind of a funny side note on that shopify analysis.

I can't frickin believe that in shopify's last earnings report they took a 1.1 billion dollar canadian dollar, so it's basically worthless, but anyway, uh 1.1 billion canadian dollar write-off on a firm. That's because they got like free shares from a firm to be their payment processor. So a firm's kind of like hey yo, let us be your uh payment, processor and shopify - is like oh well sure we could use that for shop pay but uh. What can you do to sweeten the deal? A little bit? Oh uh? How about a 300 million dollars of our shares, which ended up going up to like 2 billion, but now they took a 1.1 billion dollar write down crazy thanks a firm for ruining shopify too.

Not the only thing, that's getting ruined! I lost money on fm2, i'm pissed, but anyway, so uh remember folks, 2022 long year, a lot of rate hikes ahead of us. The impacts of the fed rate hikes are still ahead of us, a lot of them uh real estate, wealth effect, the stock wealth effect joblessness that we're expecting a potential doubling of the joblessness rate and probably the biggest and worst catalyst of all. That should make you nervous is i'm going on vacation on july 7th and it's going to be long hey now. I just want to add something else here: okay, so, first of all, thanks for making it to the end of the video, but i think this is pretty important.

So take a look at this. You can come in close here if you want look at this, so these are the five year break evens and what's really important. Is that see this is february over here in march right? This is kind of where a war began, and we had this insane surge of inflation expectations throughout march inflation expectations are probably one of the most hotly watched measures by the federal reserve, and, what's really really good here - is look at this folks, we're sitting at 2.88 Right now, what's incredible about that, 2.88 level is if we actually pull from this level back over roughly here and i'm kind of you know a little squiggly line there, but doing my best. We are now at the lowest level we have been in since the war began, which is really good because all of this crazy war, inflation is basically being looked at by the market.

As hey, don't worry, the federal reserve is here to save the day and they're going to take care of us now, whether or not you believe the feds are going to take care of us or not is a totally different thing, but something just to show you Why this is so important, something you can do, is you can overlay the five year breakeven and the ten two treasury yields to see an inverted yield curve right and if we go back into the last six months here, look at what you're going to see you're Going to see this inversion that we had right here in the 10-2 yield curve. This was on april 1st and you could see that almost perfectly correlated with the worst inflation expectation. So, as inflation expectations go up, we really think that we're going to have a recession which is generally signaled by the 10-2 yield curve, and you last saw the 10-2 yield curve invert only for about 20 minutes in the morning here last week, and that was right. Around the time that inflation expectations again had skyrocketed here, and so it's no surprise that when we get rid of these here - and we just go into the last month - we really zoom in here.

It's no surprise. This looks a little messy. Let's go back to six months here. It's no surprise that we've uninverted on the yield curve, although we're still pretty low we're at 8.7 basis points right now: we've uninverted on the yield curve again and these inflation break events are substantially lower than where they've been all well.

I can't say all year, but really since the war uh for the year, for just point of view, we had the lowest point we had was about 2.75 on five year: break evens we're at 2.88, that's again down from that 3.15 peak that we just had in The last couple weeks, which was combined with a lot of red, so in my opinion this is actually good news. The market is not expecting runaway inflation, which again is very different from what we experienced in the late 70s and early 80s.