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and you can now use the Saint Patty's coupon linked below well. Mr Joe Biden has more tax plans to try to avoid a debt ceiling along with updates on housing Apple We've got Covid and research Labs yield curves to talk about Federal Reserve updates and much more. Joe Biden is apparently now proposing a 25 minimum tax on a Billionaire's income. He's also proposing doubling the capital gains tax rate to 39.6 percent from 20 percent basically to raise incomes on the those who only receive income through capital gains.

Remember, if you're paying somewhere, let's say you make at your job somewhere around two hundred thousand dollars, which is fantastic. You might be paying somewhere around 37 in taxes on sort of the last dollars that you're earning. Uh, and that is quite different from somebody potentially receiving a million dollars in long-term capital gains from a stock they held and only paying 20 federal taxes. So Biden is doubling down on this idea which was a campaign promise of his as well part of his uh, build Back Better economic package.

and uh, personally, I hate to say it. but I think a lot of Joe Biden's plans right now are really just click bait for debt ceiling negotiations? That is. How ludicrous of ideas can the Democratic party throw out in front of the mainstream media to pick up so that Republicans can have a heart attack and shout back at those and potentially the idea is hey, hey hey Well, you know we'll negotiate with with you on the debt ceiling. just pull back on a lot of these things.

I Don't think Republicans will end up being fooled though. they know they have control over the house. So a lot of these proposals from Joe Biden I think are really, just, uh, nothing. Burgers But obviously this is all just prepping for, uh, what's expected to be a somewhat intense debt ceiling raising debate probably somewhere close to our X date since Congress always does everything last minute somewhere around June regarding housing.

A lot of talk about the next wave of housing pain coming. Now it's probably slightly too early to tell right now, but we do know that when we look at the 10-year treasury yield and it's hovering around four percent again today, we expect that that brief fall to about 3.37 on 10-year treasury yields will end up proving to be a slight anomaly right around the beginning of the year when inventory is usually at its lowest. That could potentially lead to a short-term bump in real estate prices, but I expect we're just setting up for the next, Like down a lot of talk as well about people being in Uh quote unquote, stuck, uh and and no, not in the sort of Step row step CIS manner, but instead parents and children stuck in either homes that they own right now or children not able to move out and form their own households because interest rates are so expensive and people feel handcuffed to the lower interest rates that they have. After all, interest rates more than doubled from a low of around two and a half percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage pay cord.

uh or or I should rephrase this. a subscriber loss for people cutting the cord. The cable cord apparently is expected to hit 6 million this year. That is 6 million people are expecting to cut the cord with their cable providers or potentially satellite providers as well versus 2022 where we had about 5.2 million cut the cord so to speak.

That sets up for about another seven to eight percent erosion versus six percent and 22 four to five percent in 2021.. Remember Ark Invest has a thesis that a lot of this cutting will actually be a Big Boon to companies alike a trade desk which personally I have an exposure to and I agree with. Now it is making a lot of companies, especially companies like even Dish TV look like potential value opportunities. However, you have to be very careful when we are an innovative.

Negative Times: it is very common to look at Value companies and end up with a value trap that is very dangerous where something looks like it's trading for a very low multiple compared to its cash flow, but it's actually trending on the way to bankruptcy. now. What's remarkable is if you go back to the days of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham in the 1950s, in my opinion, because Innovation took longer, you had more time to sort of milk the cigar butt of value stocks and trade in and out of them, right? I Think there is more risk doing that today given how quickly The Innovation cycle moves. Some are now arguing that artificial intelligence could could essentially be Moore's lawing or doubling in its capacity every six weeks.

Now it's possibly true because uh, we're so early in the artificial intelligence cycle and it's almost easy to double the capabilities of artificial intelligence right now, but these are just. there's also potentially extreme estimates, But they're really just to make the point that be careful if you're looking at companies that look like value plays. I Think there are a lot of value traps out there. uh, right now.

and there are a lot of companies that look phenomenal with leftover cash flow and potentially High dividends, but do consider their staying power. So uh, at Bloomberg actually went as far as calling a TV a melting Ice Cube and that, uh, TV defections may slow. But now, with YouTube offering NFL Sunday tickets, losses could actually intensify so slight, uh, talking out of both sides of their mouth there. Now another thing that I thought was very interesting is yesterday somebody railed on me for having uh Apple airpods usually I just have sort of a little one in but I'm traveling right now and this is what I have uh and uh I I Was wondering why why do people hate on on the Apple audio devices? These are actually pretty remarkable I used to wear headphones all the time and generally after wearing headphones for a long period of time like if you watch my January 6 coverage where I wore a broken sort of beat set of headphones for for 10 hours and then there were a bunch of a bunch of you subscribers who were actually so nice, you ended up sending me replacement headphones.

that was really cool I think there were like four of you who did at the same time. some really awesome bows, some other beats I mean a phenomenal y'all are so wonderful and nice. uh and uh what I found though with my original Beats is they would hurt my head after a while because the the band is a hard plastic. Here you have this this mesh fiber and I could almost wear these all day long without even feeling them.

or go on a run or whatever if you go running with him. Obviously this this stuff gets a little shitsy so you might want to replace that over time. But anyway, so I was wondering why is there hate for these and then I also at the same time picked up on this Bloomberg another Bloomberg piece. Actually, this was a Uh Bloomberg intelligence piece and they were talking about how Apple Airpods could actually become Apple's third most important product.

Uh, there is now analysis that the audio Accessory department at Apple could end up hitting 22 billion dollars by 2023, 14 above consensus with 62 percent of Gen Z owning Airpods. Now if there are multiple different kinds of airpods, you know the little things that are in your ears that always fall out I can never keep the little white things in, they always fall out. Uh, so I prefer the larger ones, but then again, these are a little harder to travel with. But anyway, Airpod average selling prices right now in 2022, sit at about 181.

those are that's 24, actually less than what we saw in 2021. However, we expect to get those Asps back to around two hundred dollars, especially with the Max's and sales for for airpods could eventually end up surpassing iPad sales. I Personally thought that projection was insane. Uh, because I mean after all I mean these are like 500 bucks.

The other ones are like what 250 bucks? but iPads I mean the cheapest iPad's what? 349 bucks right now for a sort of The old school iPad uh I mean maybe I suppose. Actually, now that I think about it, if the cheapest iPad's around 349 bucks, that makes this more expensive than the cheapest iPad that's insane. The iPad Mini sits what five six hundred bucks if you get the iPad Pro maybe that's where my head is the iPad Pro which I generally prefer which is what I'm using right now. This thing's like 1500 bucks once you're looking at, you know, LTE and the a little bit of a storage upgrade.

Uh, but then again, not everybody's gonna be getting the iPad Pro So maybe it's actually a very interesting idea. And personally I love Apple uh, it's it's one of a a company that I have a large exposure to. But one of the fascinating things to me about Apple as well is their ability to consistently come up with a new product vertical that that like for example, the audio department that ends up becoming some remarkably incredible uh Revenue driver like Bloomberg is arguing here. so phenomenal and Apple's got insane margins.

So personally when it comes to let's say VR headsets I Know there are a lot of people who are very excited about Meta you know Facebook However, they just dropped their prices because their their products are not selling so there are you know Mark Zuck's having this drop prices for his his 3D headset and I wouldn't actually be surprised if Apple ends up coming out with a substantially better product. It is expected to come out later this year more expensive somewhere around three thousand dollars per headset I Think that's a little extreme I think it's going to be a little bit more of uh, sort of dare I say luxury item but maybe one of those things where it's like cool to buy but then you don't really use it that much if Apple can figure out how to get people to actually use Virtual Reality more often that could actually end up being a huge other vertical for Apple I Personally wouldn't price it into my fundamental analysis, but I I would consider it icing on the cake I Consider that sort of a margin of safety for some of these phenomenal companies. It's kind of like how I try not to price in things like you know, an Optimus robot or or whatever other crazy revenues that could potentially come to Tesla those are more just icing on the cake. uh.

And another topic that was somewhat interesting here is that uh on uh, biosafety. Labs There are 69 biosafety level four labs in the world. A level four lab is very similar. Well, it's basically the level of laboratory that the Wuhan Institute of virology uh is and was uh, the there are 69 of these facilities in the world And there's a lot of talk right now about how these uh level four Labs actually cost somewhere around 1.25 billion dollars to build.

But there are 15 different organizations that advise on biosafety, but none of them actually have the authority to set standards safety standards for any of these biosafety labs. And so there's a lot of talk now about how lab leaks are potentially totally possible for covet, because there's no one regulatory body saying hey, here's how to regulate safety for biosafety labs, they're basically self-policing Kind of crazy regarding the yield curve. There's obviously a significant yield curve inversion right now. Uh, some say that's because of the Federal Reserves Dot Plot Others say it's a just a straight up harbinger of a recession coming 10-year treasury yield now at four percent and the two years sitting over five percent.

that is a spread of over 100 basis points, which is very similar to the Volca era Volcker error I should say which is where we last had an inversion. The depth exceeding 100 basis points. That's one full percent. Policy rates of course, right now haven't even hit five percent yet.

So uh, maybe some more work to be done? Jerome Powell Also testified in the FED yesterday touching on a two percent uh Target Talking about again, no reason to change it, how it's the global standard. Inflation is everywhere. Swap's now pricing at a 5.65 terminal rate. however Jerome Powell Yesterday did sort of walk back.

Some of the ideas that 50 basis points was already decided. He said we have not decided yet what to do regarding 25 or 50 basis points at the next meeting on the 22nd. That's probably because we're waiting for the Jobs data to come out tomorrow. Jobstat obviously comes out tomorrow, so stay tuned for that.

That Jobs data tomorrow will be one of two of the big Uh catalysts that we're waiting for leading up to the Fomc meeting on the 26th. So I'm pretty excited about that jobs data coming out tomorrow. Uh, there's a little bit of taka as well, about racial gaps on unemployment Jerome Powell Talking about how that's somewhat structural and and he's not exactly sure why. Talks a little bit about making progress on Cbdc's and how housing is really constrained by zoning in many areas and there's little the FED can do about zoning you know, kidding, Tell me about California Sony in California is just honestly I think quite mentally like stupid you on one hand for I'll just give you a quick example because it's always fun to rant on California and I'm allowed to do that because well.

I I Ran for governor in California and I tried to bring logic compliance. uh I don't know. it came in second Enrique out of recall candidates I Guess logic doesn't work too well in politics. But anyway, let me give you an example of not logic.

State of California says hey, we want everybody to be able to convert their garage into an Adu well guess what? which is an accessory dwelling unit like a little apartment? Well guess what most cities are now saying Uh, well, we'll let you do adus as long as they're not in a high fire area. Oh okay, where are the high fire areas? Oh, here's the map. Oh, that's the entire city, Exactly. It's like it's so stupid.

it's it's like oh I I Politics just drives me nuts. but I've just I've just resigned to to laugh about it I love covering politics because it's so ridiculous. but I also try to find sort of the truth as much as possible and that that's challenging in politics. But anyway,.