Oh boy, we've got a lot to cover in this one. First, we're going to go through my opinion on the bottom of the market. Then we're going to look at institutional analysis including: Barclays Thoughts on the potential for a soft Landing What the fat is going to do next Wall Street Journals insights on wages the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions index. These are incredible charts and we'll look at 10 years of a potential growth sector with a lot of pp a big PP that you want to be paying attention to.

Then we'll also be looking at Natwest's macro Outlook But first, we are going to start with my insights into, well, my thesis on the Bottom of the market. What do I think and when do I think things are going to bottom. Now to be clear, this is just the culmination of all of my research. and it's my opinion.

Just because I'm a licensed financial advisor doesn't mean that this opinion is correct. But somebody commented and said Hey Kevin We want to know what your opinion is because we get all the sauce some research from you, but sometimes we don't get that sort of cohesive opinion. on with all that info. what do you think? Kevin And we want that perspective.

So I'm going to go ahead and start actually by providing that so just to catch you up. Okay, this part might sound familiar, but remember there's a big difference between a Fed U-turn and a Fed Pivot Pivot is like lowering the amount of uh rate increases they're doing or the amount of them or pausing right? Those are pivots. u-turns are what the FED does when they break stuff. like in 1987.

That's when they created the precedent. That's when they started the idea of look, we will come in and we will bail out markets. We will provide Financial liquid liquidity and be the lender of Last Resort. They did the same thing in March of 2003, ending the.com crash.

They u-turned at the bottom because you break things and then they're like oh crap, we need to bail everything out and then the U-turn right. So they did the same thing in Feb of 2009, the same thing in December of 2018, and again more recently. As we all remember in March of 2020, they were stock markets bottomed at the exact point the Fed u-turned and is really, really incredible. However, now we're really aware of this and so guess what markets are trying to do today.

Which, and these are dangerous words, right? Saying the words this time is different is dangerous. You have to be aware of that, right? But what markets I believe are trying to do right now is they're trying to predict that bottom. They could be wrong. But this time could be different in that.

Basically, and this is my thesis. markets could bottom and the Federal Reserve might not U-turn until potentially six to nine months later, where you actually end up having a U-turn here. and then you really see potentially an inflection point up. Uh, even more dramatically in the stock market.

However, the difference between this point over here and this point here could be 50. So think about that, you you could see stocks off Bottom by maybe 50 percent certain of them, or indices off Bottom by maybe 10 20 percent by the time the FED u-turns And that's because in this cycle, our recession that we're expecting seems to be the most predicted recession ever. And every single move the FED is plotting is essentially aligning with the Bond market. And usually we don't have that clear of insight into the FED just copying what the bond market does, because usually the FED bails everything out once stuff breaks, which stuff could still break, right? That's a risk to this thesis, but right now, the bond market is pricing in 1.7 percent of cuts in 2023.

That's this year, the Bond market is pricing in 1.73 percent in Fed cuts, and at the end of The Cutting cycle, the bond market is pricing in 500 basis points of cuts. And so my thesis is that by the time we actually start getting cuts that U-turn it's going to be so clear that they're going to cut that markets will have already done a lot of rebounding and so to some degree this chart could actually look a little bit different, where you could have the situation where prices come down and then we bottom. we actually aggressively sort of V-shape off of the bottom, then the FED u-turns but it's so predicted that sure, we just sort of continue on with a Green Market but like the Fed's already u-turned and so that bottom could become or come to us before a Fed U-turn that's my thesis. so that's why Personally, I'm actually investing more into the market because even though I might not know exactly where the bottom is and I don't profess to know where the bottom is right I want to be buying sort of like this, right? This is kind of.

My thesis is hey, can I take extra money? Can I build businesses? Can I make investments near the bottom? What can I do to limit my taxes? make investments to get more growth happening near the bottom because I think by the time the FED u-turns it's going to be easy to make money Again, it'll be easy to start businesses. It'll be easy to invest again. But I Want to make the big Investments starting the hard part. So that's my personal thesis.

I Agree with the bond market that massive cuts are coming. You don't have to agree with that, right? If you think that inflation is going to be sticky, then this is a big issue, right? We could continue to Trend down down until something really breaks. right? We get another surge of inflation. Something really really breaks and then what happens? The Federal Reserve ends up having to bail in at that point to bail out markets.

and what do you get? Well, now you get the real bottom and the real U-turn So I just as clearly as possible trying to provide you the difference between my opinion and the risk factors. What could happen, right? But I Do think it's also worth noting what Barclays suggests. And this is interesting. Uh, because they they tell us exactly what we want to be paying attention to to see if the Soft Landing is possible or not.

And the very first thing you want to pay attention to is this right here January 30th the expiration date for the program I'm building your wealth I'm also going back to Market open live streams with course members. So starting this week, we're going to start doing course member live streams at 6 a.m We'll stream through Market open and probably end somewhere around 6 40 maybe seven on certain days, but plan for like 6 40. So that way we're streaming Market Open Live and we'll talk trading. We'll talk real estate, Your Q A fundamental analysis, technical analysis, you name it.

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use coupon code jet before January 30th when pricing will change. So Landing Me Softly Barclays talks about how thanks to the December CPI number and the Atlanta wedge tracker uh, winch Tracker I'm thinking about real estate wage Tracker. we might actually see the prospects for a soft Landing increase, but there are some big risks here. So the first thing we're going to do is we're going to look at the Atlanta wage tracker I Want to teach you about this because the wage tracker really aligns with some of the behavior that we've seen from Jerome Powell Now, the wage tracker basically uses a three-month average and a 12-month average to tell you about what's going on with wages.

and I think it's actually pretty fascinating. So if we pull that chart up, this is what we're looking at and what you could see if we jump onto a 12 month average. for wages, it looks like wages are just skyrocketing and this is really dangerous because it increases the odds of what's known as a wage price spiral where basically wages are growing faster than inflation inducing new inflation as people have more money to spend and therefore you end up with runaway inflation High inflation expectations and ultimately Jerome Powell has to turn into Paul broker and push us into a deep dark depression rather than just a soft recession. And if you look here when Kevin you turned on stocks in January of 2022 and I'm like oh my God I got a flip-flop We were just at the beginning of wage prices going up I sat down with somebody who used to work for the Federal Reserve at a JP Morgan luncheon and I'm like you guys aren't paying attention to wages and they're like, well, we only have a 15 chance of recession price then and I'm like you're blind cell right? Uh, and and so anyway, sure enough, wages skyrocketed after that right now.

Don't get me wrong, hey, look, I had some good bets and I had some bad bets over the last year, right? that's for sure. But when it comes to macro, I'm just going to give you all my insights and what I saw then is the opposite of what I'm seeing. Now Why? Well just for an example, not just earnings call, but an example. Earnings calls where I'm seeing the opposite start happening right? people's ability, companies abilities to raise prices are are falling.

You're not seeing the insane inflation and reports you were seeing before. But now you look at the wage tracker and you look at the three month moving average. This is not the month over month, this is the three month moving average and look at what you have you have Finally the the growth still being positive which is good for workers, but it's finally inflecting down. We have not actually really had an inflection point down in this entire cycle yet, certainly not one of this magnitude, right? We've had little tiny little pauses here.

misses on some of the data on three month average uh which is is just sort of month-to-month fluctuations you see, but you go to overall weighted. You go to college degree, you go to mail, you go to paid hourly Services prime age job Seeker Notice how they're all inflecting down right? Let's do some more. Let's go overall back to 1983. Inflecting down: How about job switchers inflecting down? How about females inflecting down You usually full time? That one? You couldn't really tell because I was in the way of that one.

But uh, basically. also here. I'll just hide myself for a second. So there we go.

Also reflecting down Anyway, point being, the Atlanta wage tracker is giving us good news. Now that's great, But we still have a big problem and Barclays makes this big problem very, very clear. We know this from my coverage of the last CPI report. It's great that we have a moderation and core.

CPI Prices reflected reflecting deflation even in the goods component. but there are three components. right? Number One Goods Number Two Housing number three wages. Well, we see Goods deflating.

We see disinflation finally coming to wages, But we have this problem in housing. See: if you look at what's known as core core inflation which removes shelter and medical subcategories and CPI we're down to only two percent or sorry 0.2 percent month over month inflation, which annualizes to about 2.4 percent. Right at that level where the FED could come out and actually preserve their own credibility by saying hey, uh, that's close enough to two percent. Thanks to our policy of flexible average inflation targeting pronounced fate, we're good.

We don't have to hike anymore, and they could save face because they could just refer back to fate. Kind of crazy. But anyway, now you see core core plummeting. But what's propping it up right now? Big Time Shelter Baby And we expect shelter to plummet absolutely sharply plummet over the next, uh, a few months because we're seeing leading indicators like rents plummet.

But the big risk factor that Barclays talks about right here is that inflation could remain persistent if for some reason, we don't actually see shelter inflation fall. They say here that we must see new rental contracts materialize in CPI for us to actually have any hope at a soft Landing Now we believe that's going to happen, because again, leading indicators, as researched by the FED itself, all you have to do is look at the Cleveland Fed. The Cleveland Fed has a somewhere around 40 page working paper on exactly this. Here it is: Federal Reserve Banking Cleveland working paper disentangling rent industry differences And when you go to the conclusion section way over here, you can see that most indicators of inflation are plummeting dramatically, but CPI is still playing catch-up But as soon as CPI stops playing catch up which we think will come by this summer, we're going to have this massive anchor of deflationary pressure And that could really lead to that soft Landing that everybody is hoping for.

But remember, hope is not an investing strategy, so we have to be clear, as hopeful as we can be, that things are lining up, that businesses are finally no longer bragging about all of their pricing power via strictly just raising prices and raising margins. Now we have to get more nuanced and go Uh oh, we're in a recessionary environment. Pricing power is plummeting at companies across the board. and now it's kind of like, okay, well, whose pricing power is plummeting the least? right? That's what you have to do in a recessionary time because everyone shrinks like everyone's PP shrinks during a recession.

It's kind of like when the cold comes around, you know everyone's well. Okay, you get the idea. So then it's just a matter of okay. Well, now that there's been some shrinking in PP who's still got the biggest amount of pp left, You know, the biggest one.

And so that's a big issue. So finding those companies is hard. But even Barclays shows us, or at least tells us uh and shows us that they're seeing GDP forecasts not just increase at their company or sort of their institution, but also at institutions across the board. Companies and people and institutions are coming to believe that wow, maybe things won't actually be that bad as long as inflation keeps coming down.

And this is where you get to the soft Landing thesis that basically they're projecting the little green bars here. Being their revised projection from November which is blue, they basically revise down their 2022 GDP but they were negative for GDP. For 2023, you could barely see that blue sliver there. And now they're actually thinking no, no, we we could actually end up with a full year of growth Here, it'll be a small amount of growth, but we're not projecting as negative for economies anymore.

whether it's the US Europe or the United Kingdom thanks in part to gas prices and a much warmer winter that's helping out Europe for example, and thanks in part to, well, quite frankly, inflation starting to fall. Now this is where Barclays still thinks the following: They still do believe and I differ here. They still believe that the Federal Open Market Committee the Federal Reserve will raise rates to 5.25 before the end of the hiking cycle. The market does not believe that they say that as well.

The market as a terminal rate is sitting at like 4.9 right now and it kind of continues to Trend down. I Personally think you've got a lot of folks today saying well the inflation's got to get to two percent. They got a long way to go. Yes, But don't forget about fate.

Everybody forgets that the FED could just pull the rabbit out of the hat and go. Ah, as long as we average two percent, it's fine. What did we have the last decade? Lower inflation, right? We were struggling around. You know, to get inflation up.

We were sitting at like 1.6 1.8 percent. It was incredible. So we could really average two percent over a longer term as long as we continue to see this trend down now. They also believe that, uh, certainly by May we're going to be done with the hiking cycle at that time.

They do believe we're going to be at the early stages of a shallower recession and we could see two quarters of a recession, but still end the year positive. Although a lot of folks will say technically we already had two quarters in a row of negative GDP in 2022. So maybe we already had our recession. or we're just gonna have a double dip recession where it's sort of like we had our recession in 2022.

Maybe that gets revised away. And then we get another recession in 2023.. it's a crappy time, right? Or maybe it's the best time to invest. Either way, Uh, this is where Barclays talks about here: Lower gas prices, easing Financial conditions and improved growth Outlook could actually end up hurting underlying inflation and so it's just going to be a risk that we have to deal with over the few next few months.

Is that as we see inflation plummet, maybe people start getting a little comfortable too soon and the market does actually move up hurting those financial conditions. Now let's look at Financial conditions because in my opinion, this is fascinating because it shows you how tight things have gotten relative to where we were when meet Kevin had his big flip-flop and what I want you to pay attention to is not just the big flip-flop moment, but I also want you to compare to where we sit relative to let's say like a 2018. So this is important. This is the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions index and what you're going to see in this chart is that the white line represents Financial conditions.

How tight are they? When the pandemic hit Financial conditions skyrocketed and the Federal Reserve moved to loosen Financial conditions to bring things back to normal by lowering rates and providing liquidity. We almost got to those levels here. Look how I mean even if you just look at sort of this little mountain of financial conditions tightness over here. That's where we saw Assat in September of this year.

like Financial conditions have been crazy tight which also represents the peak of financial conditions in December of 2018 when the Fed u-turned so the FED u-turned here when Financial conditions were actually less tight than they have been this year. So Financial conditions are really really tight and have been very very tight this year. If we look at the line of where we are now, I'll go ahead and drag that one over. Actually, I did that here.

There we go. If you look at where we are now, this is where we sit. Now this is where that is relative to Covid and this is where that is relative to 2018. Still pretty tight.

So even though Financial conditions yes are softening, that could be a good thing for the FED because they might say hey, that's okay. You know as long as inflation continues to plummet, we could see some loosening. But the more this stays elevated and the more inflation continues to loosen and fall, the more the FED will be likely to U-turn and drop these Financial conditions much lower and more towards longer term average, which will probably be right around this orange line that I just turned uh, red. Here that is your longer term average for financial condition tightness and that shows we've got a good way to go in financial conditions coming down.

That would be the cutting cycle and If the Fed actually breaks things because they're too slow at reacting. They could actually push Financial conditions even lower to kind of. Unfortunately, what led to the boom cycle in 2021. And this is why you get people like Michael Burry saying they're going to end up cutting.

They'll respond too late. They'll end up cutting so dramatically that you'll end up creating another inflationary period via Financial conditions that are just too loose. All right, that's a lot to take in, but now we've got to go to the next piece. Now the next piece is interesting.

Uh, this actually is a quick one. This is just a small piece from The Wall Street Journal I Wanted to point out this other risk factor right here. and that is that even though we're seeing an inflection in wages, The Wall Street Journal mentions in this article, I'm just kind of going straight to the bottom line for you. In this one, wages tend to be stickier than inflation as, uh, the person they interviewed from credit Suite suggests they don't rise or fall as rapidly as consumer prices.

That means wage gains could exceed inflation for a little while until in, uh, until wages start falling. Now that's fascinating because it's basically saying we could be an environment where people are starting to get fearful about a wage price spiral where inflation maybe Falls to say three percent very quickly, but then wages are sitting at five percent. Let's say, in year-over-year growth and that difference makes people worried about a wage price spiral and maybe forces a fed to stay more aggressive for longer. Which if they stay more aggressive for longer.

It reiterates that maybe the FED will end up going too far or waiting too long to U-turn and then when they U-turn and they break something, they'll actually go really, really aggressive at cutting and you're just in the next boom cycle. Which again, we think that next boom cycle gets sort of precedes when the FED u-turns because the Market's just now calling the feds Bluff and they're starting to say nah, you guys aren't going to make it that long Y'all Gonna U-turn Oh, we're pricing that U-turn in. that's why I have this thesis that we could potentially see one of these scenarios here. where the markets bottom well before the FED U-turn because the Market's already saying that's okay, Fed, you keep pretending to be.

you know the tough Dad We know you love us. At the end of the day, we know you're coming back. So I think that's quite fascinating. In addition, to another thing that's very interesting is this right here: Morgan Stan Finally put out a piece and in the future I'll go through the individual companies that they talk about.

I'll give you that spoiler in a moment, but I'll go through an analysis on the individual companies later. But Morgan Stanley puts out a piece and talks about maybe one of the most attractive Investments to get into. You know, once we're closer to the bottom of the market. which could be now, who knows, right? But along with my thesis, Morgan Stanley actually thinks for 2023, the best place to go is places that benefit from the inflation reduction act.

And that's because we're going to get 10 years plus of federal support for wind, solar, hydrogen, and energy storage and stocks aren't really pricing that in yet. so they think you want to focus on profitable growth companies or companies with a path to profitability. Me at least. I'm a big fan of pricing power stocks that are already profitable and are growing I don't like money losing companies and I love battery storage companies.

Big fan of this. Not the biggest fan yet of Green hydrogen. I Actually Personally was a big fan of just the strategy I Want to be very clear about this because we know that Nicola was a fraud. but they had an interesting strategy because you have to know this for hydrogen.

Who's going to buy a hydrogen car if there is no place to actually fuel up your hydrogen car right? So you have a chicken or egg problem? Nobody wants to buy a hydrogen car because there's no hydrogen fuel around. So an interesting thing that Nicola did which I thought was cool is they said well, fine. We'll create an electric vehicle that also has a hydrogen fuel cell, right? their their pickup truck. Now you can charge your car as an EV and now you actually create the demand for hydrogen fuel because you have an EV hydrogen hybrid.

That strategy another company will pick that up and I think it's going to be a brilliant way to basically Trojan Horse the hydrogen field. So that's going to be something to pay attention to Morgan Stanley is a big fan of uh, stem and Plug power I was not the biggest fan of plug I made a whole video on when they were like 70 bucks. like this is very dangerous. like this thing's gonna plummet.

Sure enough, it did. But you can learn a lot more about Plug by just watching that video because a lot of the information is still very relevant. Type into: YouTube Meet Kevin Plug Power and you'll see it. But also some others here like N-e-e AES and Amps.

A lot of these are utility players and sort of commercial grade electricity providers. Fascinating. Worth looking into those companies. Stay tuned And subscribe because I'll be providing some research on those companies as well.

Now we got to talk about Nat West And yes, remember January 30th the expiring coupon code I Also want to shout out a big thank you to those of you who have been using the coupon code to Shadow me for a day as we travel with the jet for Real Estate If you want to Shadow me in person for a day, talk to me in person I get little video clips with me. Whatever you want to do, you want to meet the team we're doing basically hey come Shadow me small group and we take our plan. we go look at real estate. we hang out together.

If you want to do that, use the link down below and use that coupon code before January 30th. So what does NatWest tell us? Well, NatWest tells us that indicators specifically services, isms, and most other indicators, particularly in Europe, point to a shallower or even no recession this winter. Contrary to expectations, part of the Slowdown might have been postponed. but Chinese reopenings and overall lower energy prices bode well for improved economic.

Outlook We're starting to get a lot more good news than bad news, right? This is good. They also suggest that stagflationary Dynamics are being stopped or are even reversing. That's really good for central banks. Now this new scenario argues for a modest future tightening and clearly lends to support to our long standing call for 25 BP hikes that's not West here.

Now they have, uh, some other pieces that we're going to look at. some brief portions here, but this is fascinating. Inventories for natural gas rising in: Germany Everybody thought they were going to run out and they were going to have massive shortages. inventories are going up on top of that.

They suggest that in 2023, total energy costs may be around half as expensive as previously thought. and take a look at this, they talk about this idea that yes, right now Jerome Powell is still trying to have the aggressive face on, but all of the leading data is pushing down and now what we want to do is pay attention to the next. Catalyst the next big one in my opinion. We've already talked about financial conditions, but the next big one you want to pay attention to is right here.

Those three letters E, C, I and that stands for use the coupon code Okay, no sorry I'm sorry like that's my that's the only sponsor of the channel I apologize It's my job to pitch it. I I know sometimes people like Kevin so many pictures I'm sorry. Okay, we stopped doing other sponsors and that's just what we got. So I gotta provide more value for that area and then I gotta pitch it.

ECI stands for the employment cost index. The next Catalyst for that is in 15 days conveniently the same day the coupon expires on January 30th is when the ECI comes out. Okay, so EC on it's gonna be one of the next big Catalyst And guess what? It happens just two days before the FED meeting. Feb won.

So hopefully you found all of this. Insight Really helpful. Let me know in the comments down below. Are you okay with these longer form videos? I Know they're a little bit longer, but I think it's a lot of good content and I have to say I'm a little proud of myself I Don't think I had a single cut in this entire video.

so let's go. Who's gonna edit the video? Me who made the video Really easy to edit Meet Boom! All right folks! Thanks for watching. We'll see in the next one. Goodbye.