So I wanted to break down the previous six CPI data reports that were released and see how the market actually reacted. Now this is a video that I don't normally film I know that the up and coming CPI data report is this: Thursday one hour before the Market opens I will be live streaming it for free on my YouTube channel. So make sure that you subscribe and turn on your post notifications so you get alerted when it is that I go live. But I wanted to ask you know I'd love to make more of these kind of videos where I look at previous data and what was reported.

not because it has to happen again but I feel like it's a nice kind of like recap right of having a better understanding of what has happened in the past before so we can better prepare now. One of the things that you must understand is that the CPI data reports react based off of Market expectation. So if Market expectation is high in the CPI data reports come low. these are inflation reports so them coming in lower than expected is most likely a good thing.

The market will most likely react in a positive way by this inflation report coming in lower than expected. Now if this report comes in higher than expected, then of course the market will most likely most likely not guaranteed will react in a negative way and based off of Market expectations, if it's above or below right and if it's already factored in will determine how the actual stock market reacts, nothing is guaranteed and just because it's done something in the past before does not mean that it's going to have to do it again. I Just think that these videos again kind of like a preparation before the next one is released can be a valley for those that may that are maybe a little bit newer to not only the stock market but also staying up to date with you know it is confusing stuff right? The CPI data reports if you're completely new to it I do have a bunch of free videos on YouTube that break down how to read that report and we're going to be live streaming it as well so we'll have you covered with that. So if you want to see more videos like this, make sure you drop a thumbs up.

So let's go head and jump right to it. I Want to look at and be able to analyze the Market's reaction after every previous API data report? Here's a little tip though. One thing that you must know is that almost every CPI data report is released in between the 10th or the 13th of every month, right? So the previous CPI data report we could see right here was released on December 13, 2022. So it's really cool, right? because I like to focus on the NASDAQ Market this is the NASDAQ ETF it goes one for one and I can go back to December right? Oh, I went back a little bit too far December 13th and see how the market reacted and we can see that the market initially reacted I Remember this right because we did live stream it.

It reacted in a positive way. We hit highs of 300 and what I'm going to note here is we're just gonna do the previous six CPI data reports. If you want to go back further then feel free to do so. But the reason I'm doing the previous six is because at one point inflation was still going up and at least with the previous six.

Um, I mean at one point inflation was still going up right. But one of the things that I wanted to show you is uh, let's see if I can pull it up here. Yeah, we went from 9.1 well originally 8.5 We went down a little bit to 8.3 not 8.3 Then we went to 8.6 and then 9.1 right? that was back in June and then we actually started to see a steady decline right now CPI data or our current inflation rate is 7.1 percent. So I just wanted to make sure that you guys were aware of that so we could see that back on December Uh, 13th the market.

One thing that I like taking into consideration as well. Well, where was the market trading? Was the market overbought? Or was it oversold? And it trading at 287 is relatively pretty overbought based off of recent patterns. And what I mean by that is if you look at the range that the NASDAQ Market has been trading on like the day chart and actually look at the overall highs and the lows 3 300 is a very overbought level 260 is a very oversoul level. So the reason I'm sharing that with you is because when I say that 280 or 290 is considered overbought, you know this report would have had to have been very, very good for it to maintain that level and or surpass 300 Uh or 300 a share for this actual ETF.

So it doesn't surprise me that it gapped up, but that it didn't hold and got rejected right away back at that 300 level. So I'm going to put that it was previously trading at 287 in my trading journal. The market reacted in a positive way, but then shortly after ended up selling off after. uh, you know, a number of days, so that is one.

Now let's go into December. One thing that you also need to take into consideration is that these CPI data reports are reporting from the previous month, so whatever was released in December is actually the month of November that's being reported. The CPS data report that's going to be released on Thursday is actually the CP at the inflation rate back from December. So it's always you know, a little delay, right? So please make sure that you understand I Just want you to understand what is actually being reported.

Uh, so the one after or before I'm just going to go back so you guys can see the exact date I was just going to show you. I mean I can guess uh where the one for November is and I can just look at them I mean we literally like we live and breathe CPI Data reports so I can look back to November and then try to look around the 10th. Um, right? and I can see right here right on the 10th. So I would I would guess that it was on the 10th of November but I'm just going to confirm I didn't want to guess and then be wrong.

Uh, but yeah, we can see here. Thursday November 10th Uh 2022 one hour before the Market opens Consumer Price Index which is the CPI data report which is also known as the inflation report, the market gapped up. Market was trading again. This is why I think it's important.

So I'm gonna put November and then this is going to be 10th. But the thing that I think that you need to know is that we were very oversold. Remember we had a we have a support on NASDAQ on QQQ at 260. we were trading at 262s 263.

we were oversold. So this CPI data report. This is also one thing that a lot of people don't take into consideration if the market was very overbought and then this report came out, it probably would have not reacted the way that it did because it wasn't factored in right. But if the CPI data report because the market was already silver, sold on what was reported was better than what what was than what was expected, it makes sense on why the market rallied in a positive way.

so it was trading at 263 and then reacted in a positive way. So I'm going to make sure that I know that. All right, let's go back to September I'm just going to guess first to see when it was I'm sorry not September October man I don't know my months I guess Um, so we have 10 11 I'm going to say 13. It was going to be on the 13th.

so October let's see. Yep, October 13th one hour before the market opened CPI Data report: We reacted a negative way initially. pause it right? so we were at lows of 263. Very oversold, right? Very similar to November We reacted in a very negative way I remember this and uh, we quickly recovered, closed positive but then the next day we sold off.

So again you get you can see the inconsistencies. This is why I'm making this video because looking at previous CPI data reports, not just the day of that's just one day, but even the days after you can see that volatility is very high. So by seeing this, maybe even if you are down or maybe even if you are up, this could give you a better edge of you know to not to not get so emotional about it. Maybe watching your position size because you understand that the market might be a little bit more volatile.

So this one's going to be a little bit confusing because now we're reporting um on October We reported on October What is that 13th, right? Yeah, 13th and it was trading at pre-market right around what is that? 264. very similar to the month of November and we're reacted in a negative way. so I'm going to have to I'm going to note that though we reacted in a negative way, but we closed in the green and I need to take and I need to need to make sure that I note that right because we did end the day in the green based off of where we opened, but we sold off for the better half of the day and then quickly recovered. So let's go ahead and do um, three more of these and then you know you guys can look a little bit further intuitive if you guys want to.

So I mean again, very easy to see. I'm going to say that it's going to be on September 13th that it was reported. so September 13th, Consumer Price Index Just confirming that for all of you guys, look at that right? Consumer Price Index We were at 313. it's the first month that we're in the 300s one reporting and we were at 313 and we reacted and in a negative way.

And if I'm not mistaken I mean looking back if we look back to this right, this is in June This is in July So inflation law is actually going down right? Yep, I mean inflation was actually going down and still the market reacted in a negative way. This is what I Always tell our learn plan profit members right? This happens very often with earning reports if the actual stock itself is already overbought. It doesn't just need a good earnings report. So just because we're overbought, it doesn't mean that we just need a good or a fair CPI Data report.

It means that we need a way better than expected Because at this point if if we see that we are overbought and then what is reported doesn't meet the standard and isn't factored in, then the market will react. And you can see that from that point moving forward, the market continued to make lower highs and lower lows. and that's very unfortunate to see. But again, it's good to understand that because you know, as we hopefully begin to indicate signs of recovery and we begin to retest those levels.

at 300 a share, you know you can begin to think about this. If a CPI data report is up and coming right, you can wait for the market to reaction, understand what has happened in the past before, and better prepare next time. So let's go ahead and go to August. So August I'm going to say it's going to be on the 10th right? That's where it makes the most sense.

So on the 10th of August I'm just going to double check for all of us making sure that I am talking about the say the right date August 10th, 2022 one hour before the Market opens. Perfect! This is when we're still trading on. Yep, we're still trading that 300 price level. So August and we were trading at what is at 317 and the market reacted in a positive way.

Now if I'm not mistaken, I'm going to go back and see what was reported in the month of August This is why I pulled this thing up. Yeah, so we went from just double check 8.5 to 8.3 percent. but that's when we were seeing a lot of that. Um, I got gasoline inflation I'm sorry.

the energy inflation. Uh, one of the things that you guys will come to understand and trust me, it's going to begin to make more sense over time. There's a thing called CPN and there's a thing called core CPI Core CPI is everything excluding food and energy. The reason that they removed that is that the Federal Reserve understands that.

Um, you know they cannot moderate or control. Uh, the overall supply of food or energy, right? nor the demand. So with that, they remove it out of you know core CPI And then it's everything excluding those two specific categories. but in the year of 2022 majority.

If you look at an actual CPI data report and you look at again I don't I don't want to be super boring for you guys, we we have a whole video that breaks this down and trust me, it looks confusing. But just like your iPhone it looks confusing when you first look at it right? But it's not. Trust me for all the people that that first study is confusion. But now understand it.

Let them know down in the comments section that it does get easier with time. But one of the biggest sectors, right? So these are all line items and these are sections, right. Energy, Food. and then there's like you know these other, this kind of like the core CPI You can see that energy makes up a majority.

so this is a sum of the an adjusted uh, what's it called of the previous 12 months. uh, for inflation, right? Um, in these specific sectors so we can see that energy. The numbers are so much bigger than all these my new numbers I mean we barely have anything in the double digits here, but if you look at everything in food and energy I mean at one point if I'm not mistaken at the Peak at 9.1 percent inflation I Do remember that I don't know which one it was, it might have been even two of them. they were in the triple digits I think it was fuel or gasoline.

something like that fuel oil I think was in the hundreds and it was crazy to see because it's like you could have added up all all the inflation in the other areas and it would have not even equaled to just that one line item that makes up energy. and there's obviously so much that makes up energy itself. So I just wanted you guys to understand that of of why the market could have reacted in a positive way initially for a short-lived run right and then it corrected itself and it's because I think the expectation was that gasoline prices were going to continue to rise month over month and we actually saw inflation still come down. We went from 8.5 to 8.3 So I do remember that.

All right? Let's go ahead and do one more. I Don't mean to bore you guys here, but let's go ahead and do the month of July So July is going to be the last month that we're going to be reporting and let's see from either 10 it's going to be this one. Yeah, so this can be the 13th. Let me just double check right on rookie, You're going to be wrong at least one to them.

No 13th on that one. So 13th Market was at 287. So 287 and it reacted in a negative. Really? almost broke even.

but I have to get so it reacted a negative way and then it recovered. Um, so it still did end up in the green. So for the month of December we reacted a negative way. month of November we reacted in a positive way.

the month of October we reacted in a negative way initially, but then closed in the green month of September negative month of August positive month of July negative and then ended up pretty much nearly Break Even Uh and then it found a support right and then continued to Rally. So I would give that kind of like a positive outlook shortly after that. CPI data report because remember, this is just one day, but at least at least for me I Want to have an understanding of what happened shortly after I Know an opportunity doesn't need to present itself that one specific day. but even if it ends up presenting itself later down the road or shortly, you know after this report I Think that's important to note.

Um, so you can see that all of these CPI data reports if you guys were writing this down with me um are all over the placement and part of it is what is the Market's expectation and the other part what is actually reported. And the other thing that I like to take into consideration is well, is the market overbought or oversold based off of recent patterns And that's kind of where you can take a step back, look at the day chart, and be like, hey, you know, are we more on the oversold side? more on the overbought side. Does this report have to come in way better than expected? Um, or even if it comes in Fair Or you know, decent? Well, the market still react in a positive way, right? We're literally almost at that halfway point, right? We're right around 275, which would literally put us almost at that halfway mark from its support, right around of 250 and 260.. So I'm excited.

I I Don't like to give predictions because at the end of the day, no one knows exactly what's going to happen. I Just wanted to go out of my way to kind of like share this information with you guys because I think going back and looking at how markets react after, during, and after CPI data reports could be a value, right? So it provides you and gives you a little bit more of information of the volatility that you experience intraday and also the days that follow, taking expectation and also taking overbought and oversold levels into consideration. I Don't always film videos like this, but I'm very glad that I filmed this one. If you guys would like to see more videos like this, I mean smash that like button, let me know in the comments section what you would like to have a better understanding of and I would be more than happy to make it happen.

But remember we are hosting that free live stream. Catching the Market's reaction to the CPI data report this: Thursday One hour before the Market opens, all you literally have to do is subscribe I Know everyone always asks you to subscribe I'm telling you I would love for you to host or I'd love for you to join me as I host that live stream so you can see how the market reacts when that CPI data report is released and if you don't know how to read it I do have a video on that so please make sure that you check it out you can. you can probably YouTube search CPI data report Ricky and then there should be a video that breaks down an example of a CPI data report. but uh, last thing that I do want to remind you is again: I Do Trade Live every single day with My Learn Plan Profit Group.

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