Take a look at this Morgan Stanley piece, which is kind of scary because it shows us that the vast majority, potentially as much as 80 percent of Bitcoin's trading action is controlled by just one company. Ready for this? Here it is: Binance folks. listen to this Morgan Stanley piece because it's pretty dang detailed and it's worth understanding what they're analyzing and what the implications of this could be for. Bitcoin because it's a really big deal.

So look at this. expectations of U.S Dollar liquidity support have helped BTC rally. That's something that Kathy Wood told us as well, right? Kathy Wood Told us. see, look, Bitcoin's going up because banks are having uh, problems and so if banks are having problems, maybe that's why we can say oh, look, BTC is going up BTC going back up to another FIB retracement line.

nice skyrocketing there on BTC right as the banking crisis begins and that kind of makes us think oh, maybe Bitcoin is a tool that people could use to flee the dollar and have a safe haven in Bitcoin and maybe a lot of people are doing that. But is that actually what led to the price rally for Bitcoin Well, Morgan Stanley Looks at blockchain analytics to find out and the results are somewhat surprising. Let's take a look or potentially not surprising. Anyway, listen to this: Traders On Binance Now set the daily price for Bitcoin as the exchanges volume takes 80 percent share of the market.

In other words, 80 a cents out of every dollar of Bitcoin that are traded occur on the Binance network. Now this is interesting because it comes right at the same time as Binance actually decided to dump 1 billion dollars of Binance USD and turn it into Bitcoin point. So it kind of makes you wonder. it will go into it with a little bit of Jade and we'll see what Morgan Stanley says.

Wait a minute What happened First, did the banking Crisis occur and then did Traders flee to Bitcoin? hence leading Bitcoin to Rally because they were seeking safety for the dollar or did the banking Crisis occur which would be the perfect opportunity if you had control of a lot of Bitcoin to or and other extra cash to liquidate maybe a stable coin and pump it and pump Bitcoin to make Bitcoin seem more valuable, especially if you happen to be The Brokerage responsible for 80 of the trading volumes. Well, to answer that, we would have to know what accounts are actually transacting most of the Bitcoin around the time of the banking crisis and we happen to have an answer thanks to Morgan Stanley. So let's take a look at this. So the narrative quickly turned in the traditional banking sector.

that basically the weaker the traditional banking sector the higher the Bitcoin price. This has been The Narrative of the very pro-bitcoin movement. Again, this is why Kathy Wood reiterates her one to one and a half million dollar price target for Bitcoin and the market is focused now on whether the FED will inject more liquidity. In other words, if we're going to see more pumping of Uh dollars or more printing of dollars into uh into the Fed's balance sheet and therefore into the economy, then maybe we'll see BTC move as well.

All right, let's take a look at this: BTC has outperformed other risk markets currently trading at about 10 percent stronger if we use its prior relationship with the NASDAQ. So in other words, Bitcoin is actually outperforming multiple different markets right now. and it's actually quite neat to see this because you could jump over I'll go forward a little bit. look at this over here.

Here's Bitcoin versus U.S cyclical. So this is kind of interesting. So you got Bitcoin outperforming cyclicals and look at this: U.S cyclicals versus defensives. That's this right here and then Bitcoin actually outperforming.

By the way, I Love. as I'm filming this, people think I'm like, uh, super like anti-btc P somebody just donated five dollars. Stop hating on Bitcoin for not getting in early coin. There's like this unleash of bots and people don't actually care what your information is.

Notice how I actually haven't gotten into any of the information yet and some people are already upset like I think it's I Think it's one of those things where it's like what somebody has information I Don't want to hear it. Don't want to hear it. That's fine. Listen, if you don't want perspectives, just leave the video now.

Okay, you don't belong here. If you want to stay dumb, put your head in the sand. You don't belong here. I'm gonna keep going now.

All right. So uh, so Bitcoin's actually doing interestingly well by decoupling. Uh, of what some people are saying, decoupling from cyclicals here. Look at this: BTC Blue Line yellow line over here.

cyclicals versus defensives. You're actually seeing a pretty good correlation here. Good correlation here. And then you get this break right here.

So you get a break around the banking crisis. Uh, the same over here with the Bitcoin correlation to NASDAQ Look at this rough correlation here: I Mean you could say that's pretty well correlated right here. and then all of a sudden we break on BTC Okay, now what do we got here here? We have a very weak correlation to gold for Bitcoin Uh, this is a lot harder to kind of draw a midpoint over here on BTC and gold. so the correlation isn't too clear between gold and BTC.

That's leading some people to say this isn't digital gold. So what do we have over here here? We have M2 money supply growth and Bitcoins market cap And this makes sense, right? The more money is printed, potentially the more money there is that could flow into digital exchanges and Lead Bitcoin to go up. That makes complete sense. So that's actually very interesting because it shows us that uh Bitcoin is very sensitive to the flow of money, which if we're printing more money right now, maybe that's why it makes sense that we're starting to actually see BTC prices move up.

see I Got them on the chart right here. If we go out to the Daily uh, what do we have for BTC well look at the bottom of BTC on the chart over here we're looking at on this day chart where about March 9th right before the banking crisis, right? So, we kind of have seen Bitcoin pumps since the banking crisis. Uh, and it's really pumped in a way where it's decoupled from its prior Trends it's prior association with stocks here. And the NASDAQ Okay, interesting.

So why is this potentially? Well, let's take a look. So Binance dominates Bitcoin trading on exchanges. Binance cut Bitcoin trading fees to zero last July and has continuously been gaining market share. That's actually pretty incredible.

So as Binance basically was available with zero trading fees while Block Five, Voyager and FTX died, what happened bit Binance actually ended up taking a substantial market share at those times. So kind of brilliant. Look at that right around. July right before the collapse of a lot of of FTX and uh, right around the time of the collapse of uh, a Voyager and right after the three arrows Capital disaster.

This is really interesting that you're seeing Binance Poland so much of a share 81. They basically control Bitcoin trading. Okay, uh, and this is why Morgan Stanley says. our conclusion is that Traders on Binance now set the daily price for Bitcoin.

This makes logical sense. Okay, then what do we have? Investors mostly ask us about Coinbase? uh, as that is the largest listed crypto stock company, but we argue that flows on Binance more closely explain what's going on in the market. For example, after Bitcoin rallied 40 in January, the volume of Bitcoin to U.S Usdt traded on Binance reached a 38 Uh, X that of the equivalent pair on Coinbase in early 2022.. So why why do they explain this well? They suggest that people might be liquidating a stable coin essentially and buying BTC And they see those volumes of those transactions match rallies in Bitcoin Prices on Finance, but not on Coinbase.

Interesting. So what's this? Bitcoin Order book liquidity is poor, reaching the lowest levels in over a year. Okay, that's actually really important. So when we think about a small stock, for example, and we look at a penny stock, you know, maybe something that's trading for four dollars with a market cap of oh, I Don't know.

Maybe it's got a market cap of uh, 50 million dollars. So a really small company, to some extent, a micro cap company. If you take a small company like that and you move just five hundred thousand dollars into the stock, the stock will probably pump substantially because the order book is generally very thick. The order book is really just a list of who wants to sell and who wants to buy, and the goal of an exchange is to help match buyers and sellers.

Market makers can come in and provide liquidity by filling orders at various different prices, so the thinner an order book is, the more sensitive to price to security or or some sort of asset is here. Morgan Stanley Alleges that right now Bitcoin's order book is very small. liquidity is very low. This means smaller trading volumes can have a larger influence on price action versus before.

Liquidity has been deteriorating since Alameda closed in November as they were a large Market maker. Most of the BTC rallied this year has occurred during U.S trading hours, and when Bitcoin rallied 15 on the 13th of March, the largest buyers of BTC were from large wallets, many of them likely to be exchange wallets. Okay, now that's interesting. All right.

So what are they essentially alleging here? We'll take a look at this over here. This is what I wrote: Remember Finance just moved one billion dollars of busd into BTC In my opinion, that's actually a very risky move you say I wrote all these opinions down here. That's a very risky move because these could create repercussions for the crypto Market that are actually very dangerous. and I think it's very important to consider that I'm saying here could be right.

Like in my opinion, if The market Nike swooshes that is. we had our Stark down already and we Nike Swoosh up with volatility then Crypto should be fine. Should be right. The problem is if there's some sort of exogenous shock like you know, something that cripples the stock market or inflation that remains sticky or a further into the banking crisis or or people wanting to withdraw their money from everything whether it's Banks and crypto or or whatever right.

Some kind of shock that puts more stress on the brokerages that remain like cracking and Binance I could end up creating substantial strain over at Binance since what they're really doing is they're taking more of their cash backed assets and they're basically buying Bitcoin with it. That, in my opinion is a weakening of Binance's risk tolerance and this follows them basically dumping uh, their their proof of Reserve audits which would never show what liabilities were staked against those. But at least we got some kind of audit into the asset side which is relatively worthless anyway, because if you only know what the assets are and you don't know what the liabilities are, what's the point? We already know. Uh, or at least I should say suspect we don't want to don't want to get sued by Bandits but we already suspect that if Binance has three coins that are each, let's say worth a market cap of a billion dollars.

We already suspect that that there's probably only one billion dollars of cash. So when Binance tells us, oh, that coin is 100 backed by cash, sure it is, as long as it's not also backed by cash. This, as long as that cash is not also being used by the other coin, which it probably is, as long as it's not also backing the other coin. which it probably is.

But we don't know because there's no regulation over here, right? So in other words, Morgan Stanley is giving us this sort of cannon fodder to suggest. Wait a second. If exchanges are the ones who are pumping crypto, specifically Binance who controls 80 to 81 percent of Market volumes. Isn't it possible that an exchange like Binance could actually be perpetrating a purposeful pump during the banking crisis to make Bitcoin appear more desirable and therefore manipulating people like Kathy Wood into thinking the pump in Bitcoin price was actually organic? When the fact is, it was not, it was an inorganic pump led by exchanges.

Well, take a look at this Bitcoin's 15 rally on the 13th of March SAR Large Wallets large Bitcoin Holding wallets. uh of uh, wallets basically holding between ten thousand to a hundred thousand. BTC These wallets were the ones who exchanged the most and they are likely exchanges. Take a look at this if we zoom in here, you're gonna see these are the small wallets, right? These are us normies over here.

Small, Small. Small. small. All the small wallets, which hold less than a thousand Bitcoin which could be as much as a decimal of a Bitcoin one to ten Bitcoin 10 to 100 Bitcoin up to a thousand Bitcoin All of the small wallets added during the banking crisis, which is fantastic.

But look at this. medium sized wallets dumped massively, The one to ten thousand, uh, crypto wallets dumped and then what do you have over here the exchanges pumping, So it makes me wonder. Well, it seems easy to explain the idea that hey, Banking Crisis, let's all go to Bitcoin. Well, that is what normal people did.

Individuals did exactly that they bought Bitcoin during the banking crisis. But it wasn't just them, it was exchanges who actually ended up leading to the vast majority of the trading volume right here pumping Bitcoin on the 13th of March when the banking crisis was occurring. Now that's incredible because it makes you scratch your head and wonder. wait a second.

Is it possible that this is a total manipulation and that CZ over at Binance are in complete control of what happens with Bitcoin It is possible. Now there's some more information here because take a look at this: total stable coin market Cap has been falling while BTC has been rallying. Now that's weird because usually you actually see stable coin values go up in coordination with Bitcoin going up tether. The largest stable coin has seen issuance go up 10 in the last month and 16 percent this year, but quote that has not been enough to compensate for the reduction in other stable coins notably Busd and Usdc.

over half of all tether and and 70 percent of recent uh, hold on a sec. over over half of total Us tether and seventy percent of the recent issue has been created on the Tron blockchain. the company that's now behind uh, a subject of a lawsuit with the SEC. That's fine I Don't know that that so much matters right now.

I Mean the SEC is coming after crypto, period. We know that. But I want you to think about this for a moment. So banking crisis happens and what happens? People think by BTC but exchanges, uh, make the biggest moves.

Uh, while dumping stable coins into BTC is this then engineering the pump that people would expect potentially leading more people to want to buy BTC and four since Binance controls eighty percent plus of trading volume. Oops, doesn't it make sense as almost a free advertisement to pump BTC and then take 80 percent of BTC flows at Binance. So there is a really clear, crystal clear argument here about uh, this. basically crypto whales manipulating the market.

Now we're not saying that doesn't happen in the normal Market but that's not a defense. You know that's like somebody saying oh uh, you know John murdered Sally Yeah well, will murders people all the time then mean John murdering Sally was okay. That's a stupid argument. Like, just because there's fraud doesn't mean it's okay to do your own fraud.

It's crazy. anyway. BTC trades similarly. Okay, now we could talk about the four-year cycle of BTC as well.

But I think it's really interesting because while you're seeing stable coin issuance, go net down BTC is pumping where it would make sense to pump it. but statistically, it's actually The Exchange is pumping it. Uh, and and it, yeah, as hex Flex here says it creates fake volume. Exactly fake volume.

Uh, so take a look at this over here. Crypto Exchange traded products and ETFs have actually seen outflows despite Bitcoin's price Rising Now that's also very interesting because take a look at this. If you go over here and you say hey, institutions like Banks and money managers are saying we don't want exposure to BTC then what you're seeing is stable coin issuance go down. Institutional money managers, wealth managers Banks individuals buying.

you know, Crypto related exchange products because you know we only have uh, Futures ETFs and stuff. If you're seeing these go down, then it seems like normal people really don't have the power to actually make moves in Btc's pricing. Instead, it just happens to be people like CZ who are able to at the drop of a hat, say we're just gonna dump a bunch of our stable coin and we're gonna go buy Bitcoin We're gonna go buy the debt. Okay, that's a little bit concerning though, because if the market is basically being propped up by Binance, this chart right here by the way shows you the trading volume that Binance has.

right? Look at this Binance share of BTC exchange trading volume. If you see this explosion here in Binance trading volume, then really, what you're suggesting here is Binance basically owns Bitcoin They basically own the market. Now this drives me nuts as well. They say this here: A Word of caution on the reported data we analyzed information on Exchange Bitcoin Holdings based on Wallet information provided by the exchanges to the markets.

Unfortunately, when cross-checking the data, it left us with more questions than answers. I've had the same problem. It always seems like the wallet addresses that we get from CZ only paint part of the picture. You don't get a full image and part of this is because what the exchanges keep doing is they keep making new addresses.

So they have these massive addresses and then they create a bunch of smaller and mid-sized addresses and they move stuff around like crazy. Everybody says, oh, but the blockchain. It's transparent. You can follow everything perfectly.

It's not that easy. There's a reason why there are companies that make tens of millions of dollars as crypto analytic firms just to try to trace what the hell is going on, because there are so many ways to obfuscate how or where your money is actually going. I mean all you have to do is understand the basics. Well, A hopefully if you're talking crypto, hopefully you understand the basics of cryptography, but then B uh hopefully you understand how simple it is to manipulate wallet addresses using services like service is similar to I Use this name even though it it closed specifically because there are so many others like it.

but everybody knows this one like a tornado. Cash, right? It's very easy to to hide. uh, your Trail so to speak. But anyway, I find this fascinating because to me it it sets up a risk factor for BTC that essentially says uh, if look if in my opinion this is my opinion, let's make this very clear.

Uh first, I think you should after all this. get life insurance in as little as five minutes because there's a link down below and it's awesome. It's what Lauren and I use and it's great. Second, you know if you want to make sure you can, uh, buy some BTC over here you could actually do that.

uh on uh weibull. If you want, uh, go to Metcaven.com uh free and you can get up to 12 free stocks on Weeble and if you wanted to, you could sell those stocks and buy BTC uh if you want to, it's not personalized Financial Advice and yeah, that's a paid sponsor but uh, let's go back in over here. to my opinion, push that button and figure out where the buttons are. Okay, so my opinion is as long as the market goes up.

Uh, that is. this is going to be the broader market, right? that is. So let's put the AKA inflation down rates stable higher for longer doesn't mean deep recession slash credit squeeze Then it's possible. Uh, Bitcoin and Binance will be just fine.

But what they've done in the meantime is they've lowered their risk. Uh, uh, um. or I should say their their protections. So they've actually increased their risk, right? They've lowered their their Hedges to risk.

So they've increased their Risk by converting more stable coins to BTC over at Binance, which happens to be an exchange that controls over 80 percent of the market. That's scary, so that's something that's really important to pay attention to now. Uh, you know some people in the comments say you're late Kevin your fed won't work. What I think is phenomenal is actually the four-year crypto cycle before your crypto cycle has been holding up and we might just be in the midst of the next.

Uh, for your crypto cycle. I'll pull it up over here, but it's actually been doing quite well. Let me see here. where's that four year? Oh, this is time zones I'll explain times those we'll go to the bullish part about the four-year time cycle here in just a moment if I could find the darn thing.

Uh, anyway. I'll find that in a moment. But what's interesting is I I really believe and I feel so terrible for people. Two more things we got to talk about.

By the way, we're going to talk about: Bitcoin Ordinals Uh, Time zones. Actually three things. ordinals, time zones And then we've got to talk. um, the four year cycle.

But a quick note I love it when people are like, hey, why are you studying yeah, that's all you do. They sound like babies. like honestly, if you you use the word fud, you sound like an uneducated idiot and you should stop using it as a friend I Want to be able to look at you in the eyes and say you shouldn't use that phrase anymore because it makes you sound like a dumbass because fun is fear, uncertainty and doubt. But you're using it in a way that assumes it's fake news.

But fear, uncertainty and doubt are not fake news. They're actually important things for you to be aware of. Like you got to be aware that there's a counterparty risk in stable coins. As everybody today has learned when brokerages have collapsed.

So the same thing we talked about years before brokerages collapsed and guess what, people then said, whatever. Whatever. stay Stupid So anyway, uh, so take a look at this. So over here you have uh Bitcoin rallies by time zone and I thought this was really interesting because look at this you have US time zones uh, representing uh, most of the buying right here.

40 percent ish for Bitcoin Buying and selling occurs in U.S time zones AM and PM about 22 21. Now what's interesting here is: I Don't know that this necessarily means these trades are occurring in the United States So right here I Wrote the following: It doesn't mean that you couldn't schedule Bitcoin trades in U.S time zones from the United Arab Emirates where CZ happens to hang out all the time because he's too afraid to go to the United States because he's going to get invested and he'll be just as much as much of a top G as Andrew Tate in jail. We'll see, who knows, Andrew could. Maybe he's innocent.

We'll see. All right. Here's the four-year uh, a Bitcoin cycle. So uh, the next having is expected in 2024 and every one of the havings we've had before.

What do we see? We see these massive collapses in, uh, the price of BTC and that same kind of pattern is unfolding right now. And so it's entirely possible that, uh, we are just on the next bottoming process of the third having cycle here and we potentially could on a logarithmic scale, move up to the next scale point for BTC which that's that number right here folks. One hundred thousand dollars per Bitcoin So Based on the logarithmic growth and the having cycle pain that you get, it suggests and we. It's too soon to tell, but it suggests that despite all of this control that Binance has or whatever all these other facts that we know, it's entirely possible that we end up creating the same uh price movement as we have in Prior cycles And that could mean BTC One hundred thousand.

So kind of cool. Uh, this here shows you a little bit more of an illustration in terms of what the having cycles look like. Uh, and then we gotta hit Ordinals really quick. So these uh, these Bitcoin Nfts called Ordinals uh came out and some and these right here where ordinals have been created.

So these are creates for ordinals and it's really interesting that creates for Ordinals aligns with the uh the daily transaction count count. This is not a price here. this is daily transaction count for BTC So this is not price, but it's transaction count seems to be pretty dang aligned with ordinals, so that's pretty interesting at the same time, the shorting for Bitcoin exchange traded products have actually remained pretty high uh, despite Bitcoin's price rise, so haven't really been uh squeezed there. The shorts haven't really been squeezed there.

It was so quite interesting. I Actually think the biggest takeaway for me out of this whole article is that you can now use Buy Now Pay Later on the programs on building Your wealth link down below Now just like I Don't right now invest in Crypto and I don't have any intentions to right now I think there are plenty of other deals and stocks I don't recommend you use Buy Now Pay Later services but so many of you have been asking me to enable that and I was able to get into a beta and now 50 of you using Buy Now Pay Later to join those programs which I think is sort of like at a grocery store. like even though I don't take vitamins, maybe I should I don't know, maybe I'm missing something I don't know Uh, even though I don't take vitamins, if I was running a grocery store, I'd probably still sell Vitamins because well, you've got to make money survive. So anyway, those are some things to consider and a big bottom line out of all of this for me is Binance controls the BTC Market a lot more than I expected, a lot and I don't know how I feel about that because honestly, I don't really trust CZ uh I think uh, you know when he tells us we've got all this money in seifu I remember tweeting out going really? where's all the money? It's like half of what you're saying it is.

In fairness, he did end up topping it off I'm not sure if he saw my tweet or other people saw it or somebody else's tweet on it and they ended up fixing the problem. But they ended up fixing the problem. So good for them, right? They topped off their safety fund, but then I don't believe them when they say that all of their assets are backed one to one because I think they're using the same dollars to back multiple different assets one to one. Quite frankly I think they got lucky that BTC didn't go lower than 15 000 because I think if BTC ended up hitting a low of nine I Don't think Binance would have ended up being able to survive uh, the crash, they would have likely collapsed as well.

And if Binance represents 80 percent of of trading volumes, that's scary. So in my opinion, that always goes to the bottom line of not your keys, not your crypto. If you don't have your private key, you are going to probably at some point in the future in the crypto. World lose your money.

So if you want to use the exchanges, go for it. Just get your money off out of them. That's my opinion. Uh, you know, in non-personalized financial advice terms, Not your keys, not your crypto I Think is the biggest lesson out of all of it.

And look, there are a lot of people throughout the world. they don't have another choice. they have to use Binance, But at least no, potentially what could be pumping up Bitcoin's price here recently could potentially be Binance, ironically making their platform even riskier. I Didn't even think it was possible to make Binance even riskier, but that's basically what they're doing.