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Stock market inflection.
Stock market inflection.
Hey everyone we kevin here. I want to give a quick update on an inflection point while we're in between events over here uh, but anyway, we got to talk about this inflection point that i've been reading about all morning here and it's really this inflection point in freight and what it could Mean for the market and some stocks that we're investing in maybe shorting or not investing in right. So let's touch on some of these stats quickly here so there's the impression amongst shippers and freight companies. That rates are going to fall.
In fact, 33 of shippers expect prices to fall and 58 expect them to be flat. But their outlook of how overwhelmed they're going to be is down 26 year-over-year and they think they're heading back to 2020 levels in terms of how comfortable they felt with what they call fluidity. Now they actually note that so far, their demand for like products like the end user demand is still solid, but fluidity has improved so much that shippers feel like uh, oh okay, this is gon na start squeezing prices down, because even though we still have - or at Least are seeing similar levels of end user demand, we're seeing more availability for flatbeds trucks, shipping, it's easier to secure loads, uh, and so now there's the expectation that rates might quite frankly fall off a cliff over the next three months. Uh now only some folks think rates are going to fall off a cliff about 33.
I think we're gon na follow up a cliff in terms of shipping rates 58 thinking, no we're gon na stay flat with rates, but this is a really good note and it's something to know for us going forward in terms of investing, because we'll see one of The successful trades i had this year was shorting zim, uh a shipping stock, and so i've been expecting that these shipping stocks are going to get hit because one of the things that happens is when we have this fear about supply chains. We'd like to run into shipping stocks, and last week somebody was saying: like oh kevin, you know, should i hedge my portfolio by going into shipping stocks, you know look, i can't give financial advice, i'm not your financial advisor, but my view is that usually the worst Time to get in on something is when it's already had its run right, like that's, usually when you're starting to peek out and we're seeing them so what's fascinating about. The note, though, is that maybe we're not actually seeing that peak yet in user demand i mean people are still traveling spending money like crazy. We know that we're not seeing that demand reduced yet, but we're seeing some fears that maybe maybe at companies like under armour and uh and uh, you know wayfair they're thinking, okay, yeah.
It's a lot easier, we're seeing this. It's a lot easier for us to get product now. That means we're gon na slow. Our price increases down.
So we have that product, but we're no longer having to use air freight as much we're able to get uh containers on vessels and they can actually come in a reasonable period of time. This is sort of raising the argument that gosh what if in a year we look back and we're like. Oh man, kathy wood was right. We end up getting piles of inventory right and then prices come down. We get that deflation, inflation ends up being transitory. They'll end up being uh bittersweet, obviously for folks like jay powell and kathy, but anyway things to pay attention to now. What do i think about uh investing strategies going forward? Well, as always like i mentioned yesterday, get ready for real estate, i'm thinking q4 to q2 of next year, so you want to become an expert in real estate. If you're not familiar with that, yet seriously zero to millionaire real estate investing, you could be a know-nothing in real estate and come out knowing more than in my opinion, mbas or real estate agents or brokers or whatever, because you want to learn from people who invest In real estate, really really important right, buy and hold long-term real estate, so check that coupon code out down below very important, but otherwise also i'm thinking to myself.
I don't want to be. We already know this in consumer discretionaries. We don't want to be in shipping stocks, we want to be where the pain is, in my opinion, uh and those pain stocks, not so much seeing it right now i mean. Obviously this is you know in disney and some of the travel stocks you're.
Seeing a lot of demand like crazy, but their stocks aren't really reflecting it, and so you have to ask yourself: where can you be? That's not consumer discretionary that isn't a flight to safety uh. In my opinion - and i know this sounds like a broken record - but it's it continues to be a luxury product, luxury style, consumer, discretionary and uh, something that probably could withstand a a removal of demand during a recession and uh to me, the the only one that Really knocks or checks all these things off. The list right now benefits from supply chain improvements, uh benefits from uh luxury, consumer demand, right, tesla, hate to say, people get mad at me for saying that, but uh yeah anyway max do you want to say anything? No all right! Well, thanks for being here max. What do you want to say anything? Jack um, the rides are really fun all right.
Let's go you guys, ready yeah. What are you doing? I'm so glad we just washed your hands, because i told you to stop putting your hands in your mouth. So the good thing we just washed them huh all right, we'll see in the next one links down below good luck out. There seriously leave a comment down below.
If you think, there's something better than you know: hey shipping costs go down. Tesla, hey luxury demand, we're in a recession, no problem. We got access to man anyway. Let me know what you think: bye.
ZIM as bounced from $48 (mid-day) at it's recent low to $66 in two weeks (~30%, while the rest of the market tanked).
How does that fit the hypothesis?
Kevin, I've been trucking for 14 years. Rates have been down for 2 months straight. Cities that use to have many daily loads might have only a few per hour that are profitable truck runs. Many of the rates are just so low that's its not even worth hauling. Flatbed is up and dry Van and reefer loads are terrible right now. Every week is a struggle as I fuel at the cheapest place and search for profitable truck loads.
Hi Kevin!
I've been watching your videos for quite a while now and would love to learn more with your courses! However, even with a discount I cannot afford your courses while being financially safe and smart with my personal finances. If you could implement a monthly payment system that allows for certain chapters to be disclosed each month, this would make it far more accessible for me and many others in my demographic! Especially during these times of inflation and uncertainty!
Tesla All Day, it's soo good to see you have fun with your Family, thanks for everything you do for us
With these stock videos his Disney vacation helps lowering his taxes.
china is under a zero covid policy and though they have opened up to letting people go out and eat their manufacturing factories have been closed for weeks and there is no date given for them to re open so I would not call the supply chain fixed it's far from that, I don't know how these companies are making such an assertions, I don't believe all those boats were able to liquidate their items that fast, even in a consumer whore paradise like LA.
There's just less stuff to ship because China is shut down.
Thought the title was "An Infection". Guess I'll watch since I'm here now lol
i m buying BRK.B, a conglemerate of cashflow generating business will do well during inflation or stagflation. Will be well positioned to make advantagous deal as stock market collapse
First of all thanks for the video Kevin and i hope u enjoy with ur family
Oil inventorie is in multi year low ( lower than 2010 – 2014 ) and that will not fill up easly even with a recission cause it will take so much time and don't forget that Buffett just bought worth of 50B$ in oil stocks !
I think candain oil stocks will do great next few years espacily ( Suncor ) and others that have high margin refinies with crack spread equal to 300$ oil price they will do about 25% fcf easy
Thanks for the video Kevin
My wife at the end of the video would say get off your F***ing phone and stop recording videos you can do it after everyone is asleep.
Too much margin debt still kicking around sourced from Federal stimulus. That needs to be vacuumed up. Deleveraging still ongoing.
We are putting our house on the market in two weeks. Located in Central Florida. This area has been a hot bed for selling…Hopefully there is still people moving here they won't mind the higher interest rates.
Bank stocks.
Many people bought homes. They have morgages.
Get bank stocks
I thought I BOUGHT THE DIP ON NIO … 😅😆 This Market is Crazy ! Thanks for your perspective, Kevin
Happy Mother's Day to Lauren and the other Mothers in your life
Definitely shipping reliant stock going to correction not much a crash I think $ups $fdx 2019 highs to be support consumer demand and spending decreasing.
I don't think with fuel prices shipping will stay high. Fuel is the key driver in logistics.
I agree about Tesla being an investment that can withstand the fluctuation of the market. I too want to get in and with the tax money I am. Thanks for your thoughts.
I want some Disneyland vlogs!!! Will you starting uploading vlogs?
Please please read my comments 🙏 Kevin!! The only stock I have is Tesla my average is $740 per share do you think is good to sell and get back in at lower price ?
Kevin last week: I'm going to start dressing in a suit cause impressions matter.
Kevin today: I'm going to dress like a grandma gardening
so i started thinking last night……….how long till the chinese warehouses are empty due to lockdowns over there ? just as the us gets the ships unloaded and warehouses stocked they will start to empty out and there potentially wont be all the ships waiting to refill the us warehouses . figure the lag in ? 25 days to get from china to us at sea…. turn a chinese factory back on dont happen with a flip of a switch. .. christmas is gonna be interesting this year. if you want something that is made in china or has parts made in china you may consider getting it sooner than later. rates for shipping wont matter if there aint nothing to ship.
Tesla is the answer. It’s the answer for now and the next 10 years
It’s great to see Kevin enjoying time with his family on the weekend, he clearly has such a healthy balance and relationship with his family that he can make videos like this while they’re out and not have it affect the family. Whether you’re mad Kevin sells courses, mad he sold and was willing to take some losses and maybe you weren’t on the stocks that he suggested, or just mad he is successful, you can’t deny the amount of work that goes into everything this man does, and he just turned 30. Keep up the great work Kev, you’re by far my favourite content creator and you’ve taught me more than I even know where to start. I can actually understand what’s going on with the Fed speak, financial reports and real estate/investing lingo. And I’m not even a member of your courses, I’ve just learned so much from the free videos that I really wanted to take a minute to tell you how much I appreciate all of this, even if you don’t see it. Enjoy your weekend Kevin, glad to see you’re much happier than earlier this year, you deserve it.
Thanks Kevin!!! Have a great time with your family!!! Your kids are awesome!!!❤️
So basically if you want to be early, time to get long dated puts on BOOKING?