Welcome back to the channel everyone today, i wan na talk about whether we're most likely to see amc, a hundred dollars, a thousand dollars or ten thousand dollars plus during the squeeze. I wan na talk about what different kind of catalysts we're gon na need to see. Each price point - and i also wan na talk about what different kind of pitfalls we might experience or what might stop us from reaching those points. So stay tuned and let's make some money, and i want to dive straight in with the key information.

So i want to first start by talking about probability. Now i don't think it's as simple as saying that we're ninety percent likely to see amc a hundred dollars, five percent likely to see a thousand dollars and five percent likely to see it at ten thousand dollars or above. I personally think it depends on a few key catalysts, such as the existence or non-existence of synthetic shares and the existence or non-existence of market manipulation and amc price manipulation. For example, if you personally believe that there are zero synthetic shares out there right now and the price of amc is not remotely manipulated, i do believe we're still likely to see a hundred dollars per share when the current legally reported shorts end up covering, obviously back In january and june of 2021, we still didn't even see the legally reported shorts fully cover their position, but yet amc still ran to 72 dollars per share.

Therefore, when these hedge funds end up being liquidated and forced to cover or forced to close out of not only a small position of the legally reported shorts but are forced to close out of all of those legally reported shorts, i think amc will definitely squeeze over A hundred dollars per share now, if there's zero, synthetics and zero amc price manipulation, i think we could potentially still see a thousand dollars per share, but i do think it depends on a few key catalysts, such as what happened during the volkswagen squeeze the current level Of paper hands and whether the sec actually get involved, but i'll talk about that a little bit later after i finish talking about probability and then, finally, if there's zero synthetic shares, there's zero market manipulation and zero amc price manipulation. On top of that, i don't think we're going to see ten thousand dollars plus per share, because i just think it's a bit unrealistic if you don't believe in any manipulation whatsoever. But obviously i personally do believe there is a whole bucket load of amc, manipulation and that's why i think we could see the price entering the thousands, the ten thousands and above i think, if there's a fairly low number of synthetic shares and only a fairly small Amount of amc manipulation, i think we're still obviously likely to see a hundred dollars per share and i do still think we're likely to see a thousand dollars per share. I think if there's only a very small number of synthetics and a very little amount of manipulation, we may not see that 10 000 to 100, 000 plus price point for amc, but it all depends whether there's more than 500 million or just a few synthetics.

Now, obviously, many people are calling for 2 billion plus synthetics, if not more, maybe it's 20 billion 40 billion, maybe it's only 4 billion, but either way there's a whole bucket load of synthetics. Obviously, at this point a hundred dollars is practically a guarantee. A thousand is also practically a guarantee and ten thousand dollars and above i do still think it's very likely again, depending on these few key catalysts, mostly the sec involvement. Now earlier on, in this video, i said: if there's zero synthetic shares, there's zero market manipulation and there's zero amc price manipulation.

We could potentially still see a thousand dollars per share because actually a stock that isn't manipulated sounds awfully similar to the vw squeeze and obviously, when volkswagen squeezed back in 2008, we knew there wasn't billions and billions of synthetics. We knew there wasn't a massive amount of market manipulation. The only key driver of the squeeze was the fact that porsche was buying up all of the shares and the shorts had to cover now. Obviously, during the vw squeeze, the price still slows to over eight hundred dollars per share with a market cap of three or four trillion dollars and potentially zero market manipulation and zero synthetic shares.

Now the key driver between the vw squeeze in 2008 and today is the current market conditions now. The main thing i want to focus on when talking about current market conditions is the total derivative exposure and the total derivative leverage rates. Obviously, back in 2008, these banks did have a lot of exposure to mortgage-backed securities ceos cds's synthetic cdos, you name it. The exposure is there, but right now, in 2022, there is a much larger exposure, a much larger derivative exposure to different kind of options in the stock market.

Like call and put options, we've got banks like jpmorgan chase on their own having 49.8 trillion dollars of total derivative exposure. Obviously this table is presented in millions of dollars, so you've got 49.8 million million, which is 49.8 trillion. We've also got insanely over leveraged banks like goldman sachs, holding 47.9 trillion dollars of total derivative exposure, but only actually holding 434 billion dollars of actual underlying assets. Obviously, most of this exposure is presented in swap exposure and also in over-the-counter options.

Exposure in total, these top 25 commercial banks have over 176 trillion dollars of exposure to these derivatives. Looking specifically at options it's over 30 trillion now we also know there's a number of hedge funds like citadel that have massive massive leverage rates up to, including and above 8 to 1 times now. We also know these hedge funds have found much more savvier ways to create and hide synthetic shares as well, and therefore there's likely many more synthetic shares for amc than there was for volkswagen back in 2008 and therefore, basically, these hedge funds are more heavily over leveraged They're holding more synthetic shares and the major banks are in a much worse position and they're much more vulnerable and therefore it's likely that, even without any synthetics without any market manipulation and without any amc price manipulation that we'd still see amc squeezed to over a thousand Dollars per share due to the massive increase in derivative exposure and the massive increase in leverage also guys. I wanted to quickly sidetrack myself momentarily to talk about this video from the common sense investor.

Exposing me about futu's terms and conditions in this video from the common sense investor. He talks about this paragraph from future's customer agreement about how future used to accept payment for order flow. If we head over to google, we can see that document here. The customer agreement from the 6th of december 2021 aka a customer agreement that is six months old.

If we look up slightly higher, we can see their new customer agreement and their new terms of service. We can see they've actually removed the paragraph about payment for order flow and inserted this new paragraph saying that it does not receive fees, commissions or other monetary benefits provided by any party in relation to its distribution of any investment products to the client. So, therefore, as per their terms of service and per my discussions with internal mumu employees, it is indeed true that moomoo does not accept payment for order flow because they don't use clearing houses and they don't use market makers that pay for order flow. They have their own clearing broker future.

That clears the trades and doesn't charge payment for order flow or doesn't accept any payment for order flow either. And if you sign up to moomoo right now, using the link in the description below you can currently get five free shares worth up to two thousand five hundred dollars. Each that's a total of up to twelve thousand five hundred dollars in free shares and a free share of lucid on top of that. Just for signing up using the link in the description below now.

One of the main differences between the volkswagen squeeze and the coming amc squeeze is the number of paper hands, or just the number of retail investors or the number of investors as a whole invested in this play. Obviously, with the volkswagen squeeze, there was largely only one holder of all the shares, which was porsche with amc, there's over 4 million apes, currently holding amc or over 4 million retail investors currently holding amc right now. Now many of the apes have been holding amc for a year a year and a half or even longer, or maybe they're new to the movement and they're, only just getting started and they've only held amc for a few weeks or for a few months. I do think by now many of the long original holders that bought amc a year year and a half ago or even longer, if they were a paper hand, they've, probably already paper-handed and sold their amc shares and they won't be returning to the play.

However, we may still have a few paper hands left that are still planning to sell at 200 per share 300 per share, maybe even below or maybe slightly higher, before the squeeze has really got underway. But i think one of my key questions is: will these paper hands actually sell when the squeeze happens, when amc starts running from its current position of twelve dollars per share? Past thirty dollars past fifty past eighty past a hundred past two hundred past three hundred when it starts running at the speed of light skipping over ten dollars per second, are those paper hands really going to sell they're gon na say guys, it's actually happening. Amc is actually squeezing and it does not look like it's slowing down. Why am i going to sell here at 200 per share? What amc is still running like a rocket and it's going over a thousand over 10 000 and maybe even higher many of these planned paper hands, may end up getting fomo and say no, i'm not going to pay pand, i'm going to continue holding amc because the Squeeze is real and the squeeze is actually happening and it doesn't look like it's slowing down at 200 per share.

So actually, many of these people that were expecting to pay panda were expected to pay per hand, may not actually end up selling and amc may continue to run even beyond places where many of us think it will stop at. Obviously, if that is the case, amc continues to run the paper. Hands, don't actually sell. An amc continues to squeeze it's almost a guarantee, we're seeing over a thousand dollars per share and maybe even over ten thousand dollars per share and above maybe fifty 000, maybe 100 000, maybe even higher.

I think one of the main, and one of the only things that will potentially hold us back, is eventual sec involvement. If it actually happens now, obviously back with the volkswagen squeeze, the sec did force porsche to settle with the shorts and sell them shares a somewhat reasonable level and obviously somewhat reasonable level. Vw was deemed to be around 800 per share when it was the largest company in the entire stock market, valued at over three to four trillion dollars. Now, maybe, with this amc play, the sec will get involved slightly earlier.

Maybe they won't realize how much of a big deal it actually is, expecting us to sell our shares and may not get involved until later after a lot of damage has been done and maybe the sec won't get involved whatsoever because they know how damning it would Be for the market at the moment. I genuinely believe these hedge funds have convinced themselves that retail investors will sell their amc shares when amc starts to run over seventy dollars over a hundred dollars over two hundred dollars per share. I think the hedge funds genuinely believe the retail investors will pay per hand their shares very very early, and they won't need the sec's involvement. If that is the case, and these hedge funds think they've got this one in the bag and they're telling the sec not to get involved.

Actually, amc may run far beyond a thousand dollars per share and far beyond ten thousand dollars per share before the sec actually gets to its panic stations and gets involved or maybe if the sec aren't getting involved whatsoever. Maybe these hedge funds will line themselves up a specific full guy to take the wrap and pay out the majority of the squeeze money. Now, in terms of, if there's going to be enough money to pay for the squeeze, i really think it depends on what kind of impact we see on the major banks and whether we see all of the members of the dtcc getting involved to pay for those Liabilities of the fallen funds, as i said earlier in this video, many hedge funds like citadel, are trading with huge leverage rates, obviously, for a fund like citadel to trade with leverage, it needs to borrow money or borrow margin from somebody else, which is going to be A prime broker, or one of those major banks for citadel to trade with eight to one leverage it needs to find somebody else to lend them seven times their current cash size or their current fund size. To use that eight to one leverage.

We know the cipidell's fund is currently somewhere around 40 billion or citadel's equity position is somewhere around 40 billion dollars, but because they're borrowing, seven times their fund size, their total position is somewhere around 240 billion. Now that means, if 40 billion is their own money, they're borrowing 200 billion dollars from other major banks like bank of america, and that means that when the squeeze happens and when citadel end up going bankrupt, that's 200 billion dollars that isn't their own money. That belongs to bank of america, that's going to be lost during the squeeze and therefore it will actually impact major banks. Quite significantly, i think when these hedge funds start going under, and these major banks start taking on massive massive losses, the money to pay for the squeeze will have to be collated from all of the members of the dtcc, sharing that risk or sharing those liabilities.

Now, ultimately, i think it doesn't really matter whether i think amc is gon na run to a hundred dollars or a thousand dollars, or ten thousand dollars plus per share. At the end of the day, it depends on what you think amc will run to. I think you have to ask yourselves those questions. Do you think there's any synthetic shares? Do you think there's any market manipulation.

Do you think, there's any amc, price manipulation and if so, how many synthetics do you think actually exist right now? Is it a small number like 100 million or 200 million, or is it a colossal number of synthetics, like 2 billion 4 billion or 20 billion or more, i think, depending on your personal beliefs, that will really dictate your personal price targets for the amc squeeze? I think it also really depends on what you personally need out of the amt squeeze to dictate your price targets if you're holding a fairly small number of synthetic shares, but you still want to retire from the amc squeeze. That's obviously only going to be possible if you personally believe there's two billion plus synthetics and therefore you'll be holding to ten thousand dollars per share or above in one of your many different price brackets. But if you're holding thousands of shares, maybe 10 000 or even more amc shares, and you only need a decent amount of money not necessarily to retire but just to enjoy life, you may only need amc to hit a hundred dollars per share or slightly higher and Therefore, to you, it doesn't really matter if there is any manipulation or is any synthetics, because at that point the squeeze is practically guaranteed to hit your target regardless. The reason why at this point, i believe that amc squeeze to be a certainty, and again this is my personal beliefs, i'm not a financial advisor, and i'm not saying that this is fact, but the reason why i personally believe that amc squeeze is a guarantee or A certainty is because they can't actually escape their current play.

The shorts plan, or the shortest play, was obviously to sell a box amc if they could sell a box amc, get it below two dollars per share, get it delisted from the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq then effectively the shorts would have won the shorts. Would have won because amc would have been relegated to the pink sheets or the otc market, and retail investors can't easily trade in that market. And therefore, when those hedges or when those shorts got amc, relegated off the exchange, they knew they would have won. Because amc would have never been coming back, but at this point the retail movement is far too strong and the hedges can't push amc down that much.

The hedges can barely push amc below dollars per share or below ten dollars per share, let alone below two dollars per share and hold it there for 270 days or longer. The shorts will need to hold amc below two dollars per share for 270 days or longer, because that's the requirement to get it de-listed and the reason why they can't do. That is because amc would be so cheap to buy so many shares for the four million retail investors. If amc was only two dollars per share or a dollar per share or 50 cents per share, then it may only cost 500 to buy a thousand shares of amc.

If those 4 million retail investors used a mere 500, they could buy. An extra thousand shares of amc. 4 000 million shares is 4 billion shares, which is around 8 times the flow for a mere 500 additional investment per retail investor. Now i'm sure if amc dropped to 50 cents per share or a dollar or two dollars per share.

Many of us apes and many of us retail investors would be buying far more than a thousand shares or far more than 500 worth of amc. And that is the main reason why the hedges are stuck and they can't escape because they can't sell a box amc and therefore, at this point the squeeze is almost a certainty, because the recession is upon us. The recession is actually happening and they still haven't, sell a boxed amc but guys be sure to. Let me know what you think down in the comments below and also be sure to ding that notification bell, because that way you'll be alerted.

When i upload a new video cheers.