Holy smokes, we gotta talk about the consumer because the consumer is not running out of cash the way you think. Last year we were told by the big Banks like JP Morgan that uh oh, people are going through their savings and they're running out of excess savings you will not believe. Then the latest data that JP Morgan is giving us on the actual bank balances that people have. It is absolutely insane and it should affect the way that you invest, not personalize.

Financial advice for you, but you should look at that and go damn. I Didn't realize that it's nutty, so let's talk about that and what that potentially means for a six percent terminal Federal Funds rate from the Federal Reserve Anyway, let's get started right after, of course I Have to mention 69 off flash sale not only on the shadowing experience, but all the programs on building your wealth whether it's stocks or psychology, money, real estate investing zero to millionaire. Start with your first home, first rental property, second rental property. Then you want to go into managing property yourself or renovating.

better. Do it yourself Property Management Rental Renovations And then of course you've got the Elite Hustlers course uh YouTube and uh, real estate agent course where we get together and try to help you increase your income so you have more of an income to invest. Of course you could use that flash sale on the shadowing experience as well. Okay, let's get into Consumer Health JP Morgan Report information from bank and credit card CEO shows that cash balances, both checking and shaving savings remain elevated to pre-covered levels.

Now you're going to see exactly by how much in just a moment. and it's insane. Additionally, this cash pile has been declining at a slower than expected rate. In other words, CEOs Thought we were going to burn through excess cash faster than we actually are.

That means people, uh, uh, you know, end up having uh, uh, more money to support company earnings. Consumers are holding up less. Uh, consumers are holding less credit debt and are paying bills at a higher rate than before the pandemic. How insane is that? Because in November December we saw these insane credit spikes of people like taking on way more debt in October As well, debt accrual actually declined in January.

We didn't take on as much debt in January But at the end of the year, people were going crazy into debt. more personal loans. It was a big Boon for Sofi And upstart, They killed it with personal loans. Upstart had a fantastic report yesterday.

Uh, they were up. Uh, what were they? They were up 28 yesterday today. in pre-market they're giving back like six percent. But who cares? they're up like 28 yesterday is absolutely insane.

Uh, and so you've got consumers borrowing like crazy right now. But listen to this. Combining this information JP Morgan is telling us fears of a consumer-led recession in 2023 appear overblown absent a Black Swan event in their words, exogenous shock. Whatever.

under this hypothesis, the earliest a recession would materialize is mid-2024 that actually aligns with the inverted yield curve, which says the recession could be delayed to 2024. Right now, there's this talk about maybe oversimplifying the market though by talking about hard Landing versus soft Landing versus no ladder landing and JP Morgan's basically like dude, we have no freaking idea what this plane is doing and quite frankly, the economy is not really a plane anyway, because who says it has to land and who says it's going to run out of gas like maybe that's just not the best analogy. But anyway, one of their co-heads of global Equity trading says the following and I think it's honestly probably one of the most honest perspectives I've seen right here. Not because I think it sort of reiterates what I'm doing, but because they start off with I don't know I think that's just honest, right? And so he says I don't know what this print change is talking about the CPI numbers though Everyone I talk to is saying people are long and we should sell rallies and it's hard to disagree with that, but every time people sell to rallies this year, it's been wrong.

I Think this year is shaping up to be by Dips and the 60 40 portfolio is back with short duration treasuries. I Actually thought that was a very honest suggestion for people that hey man, look like so far selling the rips has been a mistake. Maybe any dip by it and this and I'm not saying I respect this because it aligns with me I think that's convenient, but I respect it because I think he's honest like dude. So far, selling the rips has been a bad idea because it just keeps going higher.

but I think what he's saying very much aligns uh with the Nike Swoosh thesis. although I don't want to be subject to confirmation bias. although even being aware of your own potential confirmation bias doesn't necessarily remove your confirmation bias. Uh, Anyway, so look at this folks.

Look at this chart from Bloomberg Opinion here: household savings exploded higher during the pandemic, causing havoc in the labor market. Look at this explosion. This is insane. But you ready for the real bombshell.

69 off on the coupon. It's a flash sales. sorry I had to do it. Uh, look at this.

Okay, wait. where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Credit card balances as a percentage of disposable income or less than they were pre-pandemic Also true. So here it is, folks. this is the bombshell.

Ready Here we go. Wells Fargo Who highlighted spend data is still very healthy and debit card spending is up three percent year over year in January and accelerated one percent year-over-year in December with credits card spending tracking 20 up in January This is like the American Express report basically saying people are spending through this recession, right? Listen to this. Consumers with two to five thousand dollars in their savings account pre-pandemic Okay I need you to really listen to that because I don't think you listen to that And that's okay. Consumers before the Pandemic had on average two to five thousand dollars in their savings account.

Okay, I'm drawing that on the screen. Two to Five thousand dollars? Okay, this is a really important note I Want you to pay attention to okay, two to five thousand dollars pre-pandemic What do they have now? 12.8 thousand dollars currently and this balance has been stable for the past few months after peaking at thirteen point four percent in April 2022 per Bank of America Holy crap when I read this yesterday while we were traveling with uh uh, with with members uh or or with with my team members uh, a research team uh I'm looking at this and I'm like good. Lord You're telling me excess savings, which everybody's been talking about falling has only fallen from 13.4 thousand dollars in April or basically a year ago to 12.8 Now you realize 12.8 divided by 13.4 only means consumers have drawn down four and a half percent of their excess savings and it is still over two and a half X the upper end of excess savings we had before the pandemic. Consumers again, with two and a half thousand dollars in their savings account before the pandemic, are now sitting at twelve point eight thousand dollars.

That's a freaking bombshell. That's a bombshell. No wonder we potentially could see some form of inflationary impulses because this is insane. On top of that, you do still have JP Morgan Warning about potentially you could see like uh, you know earnings Pockets People are spending less on gas.

That's great. Cars are more efficient. You've got people saying hey, you know the Fed's gonna end up crimping us. But despite that, what did you end up getting with retail sales yesterday reiterating that they are way up.

people are spending way more than expected. The Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate shows a uh, what? what do we add now 2.4 percent on GDP now GDP Now by the way, basically takes uh, all of the latest data and they try to forecast what they think GDP is going to be for the nation. Uh, and uh, uh, using the latest economic data, right? So they try to update it all the time. But anyway, they're adjusting that GDP up for 2023.

it does Not look like we're walking into a recession in 2023.. people have way too much freaking money. Way way way more money than we expected. Uh, and GDP is moving up.

Now That does reiterate the higher for longer narrative, right? And this is why you get people saying hey, look, there's a reason people are talking about the six percent terminal Fed funds rate, right? And here for example: I Think this is a Goldman Sachs piece they're basically talking about. We probably have to see few further data, but if six percent terminal narratives become more widely adopted, we could be in for a bout of equity weakness. But then again, as we recently and it's worth noting we recently went from 4.9 percent on a Fed terminal rate to 5.3 on Market expectations. and even though we had a bumpy Equity Market Equity markets trended up, very important to consider.

So pretty crazy now. I Want to be very clear if you, uh, if you support me and you wanna you wanna Shadow me in a day, uh, some of the day we we can't guarantee that we're going to be traveling. some of the days we're going to be driving. uh, and we'll go look at real estate.

Some of the days we might, uh, we, we might might be in office days. so it's just very important. Uh, most of our shadows. uh, uh, well, that doesn't so much matter.

but uh, the point is I just want to be very, very clear. Uh, anytime that I mention the shadowing experience, very clear that there's no Transportation that's guaranteed you're not. You're not coming here to to book Transportation you're coming to Shadow me whatever it is that I'm doing with my businesses. So I want to make that very, very clear? Uh, and you could use that flash sale for 69? Uh off.

Uh, expiring Friday and this is some pretty crazy data that we're getting here on uh on on the consumer spend, but uh, it reiterates no recession this year. That is pretty remarkable.