Good morning guys! welcome back to the channel. Appreciate you guys tuning in. Uh, as I said earlier today, I was going to try to do a little bit better of a job of doing a little bit of a morning uh, looking forward video in an afternoon recap? uh, video as well. So I'm gonna go ahead and start here on the spy.

Uh, as you guys probably know if you watch this morning video, we we're mainly on the long bias side of the market, basically expecting prices near 400 Max Being 400, the market topped at 399.41 at the end of the day. So we're going to go into all of that. So the first thing we're going to start off with is the intraday Gap strategy. So pretty much what this is is when you get a gap in the market, which is nearly every day.

Some are more apparent than others, some bigger, some smaller. But the approach and the logic for it all Remains the Same So today we have a gap up in the market on the spy on the market. Okay, so what we're going to do is we're going to draw a Fibonacci which of course you can get from your drawing tools in here. you're looking for that percent sign if you're on think or Swim if you're on another platform.

Of course it's going to be different, but you're just looking for Fibonacci retracement. So this is one approach and one strategy that I'll watch throughout the day. and ideally what you do is you take the open price for the day and that's your start point. So if the market is going upwards right, if you're looking for a bullish move or the market gaps up, you'd essentially start your FIB at the open price for the day.

So wherever the Market opens, you draw your Fib and start it here. and then you're going to pull it all the way down to the previous day's closing price which would be here. And pretty much the main objective is to see the markets maintain this that you pretty much want the markets to maintain that that zone. Okay, if it doesn't then of course support breaks and you basically go for a gap fill every single time.

So in this instance, we're obviously looking for the 61.8 50, 38 level to hold. Now mind you, from the 61.8 level to the 395 level is about a dollar, right? So there's a lot of range there that you're looking for support and looking for this Market to maintain. But at the The Bare Bones of it, right? The the premise of it all is you measure the overnight Gap from the open to the previous days close. What you're essentially saying is that this overnight Gap is an impulsive move in the upwards Direction And by measuring from the open of today to the previous day's close price, you're measuring the impulsive Gap up overnight and the intraday Fibonacci Sequence of that would suggest that this will be your golden pocket support FIB level area zone and your first desired destination long Target Or you could say your 161 Target is here 39946 Market top at 39941 so off by about again five pennies.

Okay so again to repeat today in our pre-market video we were mentioning watching up to 400. to do your uh, intraday Gap Fib, you're going to pull from here again which is the start of the trading day. The open price to previous day's low price and of course your 161 Target is always going to be that for me. usually the max long Target on the day, but sometimes I'll go further but it's always best to try and trade for that.

So the way the sequence works is obviously you're looking for the market to hold the Golden Pocket area and the market will not and cannot go to or even attempt to really get to 161 unless it's over the 100 level which is the open price for the day. So essentially over the 100 level you are long bias to 161. okay below the 100 essentially you're looking for the markets to maintain the Golden Pocket and from here get bought up and get back over the open price to then Target the 161. Okay now what I'm going to do is just a couple examples from the previous day to kind of show you this you know like you know this was a small Gap up day so essentially be the same logic this is a small Gap up so the open price is here.

the close price is here, and since it's a small Gap it's more likely to hit the 161, go to 261 and even the 423 on larger gaps, it'd be less likely to do that. Okay, now I'm going to take you to a downside destination day. All right. so you can see we have a gap down.

So the impulsive move initially is down we would Fib from the open price to the previous day's close price making the first Target 161 second target being 261.. So on this day you will see we hold the golden pocket, sell down to 161, break 161, hold to the penny and down to two six one to the penny and that's where we bottom. Okay, so that's ultimately the intraday Gap strategy that we use to basically Target up to 39941 today 39946. On top of that, we also have a previous swing FIB that we are watching.

Okay, so if you look at the last bullish cross, it was right here. There's a false cross here. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to go to SPX because it's a little more accurate. Okay, so if we're looking at SPX which is nearly the same thing as spine, we have a bullish cross here.

So our swing FIB would start from here to here and our Target would be 402.26 which we pretty much hit today. Okay, so ultimately what's happened is we had a bull signal a Buy Signal on the market. The market has maintained the golden pocket and we have broken over the hundred level and we've gone to the 161. Okay, that is the same logic for this.

We have the intraday Gap where we start from the open pull to the previous days close. Okay and your first Target will be 161 and now again, it looks a little different because it's not the spine, but again, same logic up to the 161. So the whole purpose of looking towards the 399, 40 to 400 level in today's pre-market video was basically because we had a swing FIB Target on the Spy which gave us a 161. Target Up to again, you can see about 400 and this is slightly off.

It should be down a little more so it should be like this. Okay, so about 410 cents was our swing long Target on the market. The overnight Gap Target as we already shown was like slightly less than that which was 39946 right? So I have it there at 39941 this time. So intraday Target is 39941 previous Buy Signal swing long Target is 400.

Okay, so that's pretty much the main slash whole purpose of looking Long bias to the price of 400 to 399 today based off of Fibonacci Okay, next thing we're going to talk about is how we kind of came up with the 398 price. So we're the overnight Gap move was to. This is based off of, um, some volume weighted average prices. Okay, so we're going to do is we're going to go into some charts here.

We look at V-waps and we've got a bunch of them on there. But I'm going to kind of clean all this up. make it really simple. So we're going to take off this guy.

We're going to take off of this guy here. Take that bad boy off. We're going to take off this. We don't need these for now because we're not talking about that.

Okay, so today, when you woke up and you looked at the market, you're probably like oh wow, we're about like 397 398 or what have you. Okay, so ideally, what's going on is this our last bearish sell signal in the market? Okay, so this right here. This was not the last one, but this was our last big one. So what we're going to do is, we're going to Anchor V-waps accordingly to our sell signal.

So we'd be anchoring a V-wap here. Okay, and so you see, what happens is from this cell signal down, that's our volume weighted average price. And once the market breaks through this V web successfully, it's going to first Target the upper distribution of that cell signal volume which is located at about 39755.. So today, when you woke up and you saw the Mark had gapped up at 39755, Essentially what we have done this morning is squeezed out all of the previous sell signal volume.

So this is the cell signal and the start of that signal is generated here at 405.90 something 405 70. So that is the purpose of tagging it there. So again, Sell Signal Anchor V Web 2 10 SMA break. That leads to sell signal that becomes our bearish V-wap to sell into.

And once the market finally flips above this, that's when the markets are really changing bias and that's where you're going to see the market. Uh, basically push back into the Max Payne and upper distribution of that sell signal volume. So cell signal volume Main: V-wap is yellow, their Max pane is purple. We hit their Max Payne today and they attempted to keep it below.

just briefly. Later in the day, we broke it up and ran the market up. So those are a couple reasons why you saw markets go to 398 today, then go up to like 39941. And while you're probably going to see prices of like 400 tomorrow to finish out that swing FIB sequence.

Okay, so that's pretty much it now. The next couple things you can watch going forward are this: okay and I'm going to bring up the SPX chart because it's just a little bit more accurate for what we're doing right now. Um, so we're going to start here with this and I'm going to delete this real quick. Eat that guy.

Yeah, I'm gonna take that guy off. Okay, so we're going to do is we're going to look at our most recent Buy Signal in the market. So we got a Buy Signal here. All right.

So what we're going to do in this one's slightly tricky, but ultimately what we're going to do is we're going to Anchor a V-wap skier and here. So we're going to Anchor one here going upwards so we have to adjust this. make this low. we're going to take off the upper band because we don't need it.

Okay, and ultimately that V-wap is the low risk long V-wap of this Buy Signal So when we got the Buy Signal here, this 30 minute V-wap becomes the low risk long level of that Buy Signal along with the 50. SMA Okay, once the market respects this V-wap and we break away, we then tag a new V-wap here like so and that should give us our new dip. Buy right the split. So that's the way this works.

Either go from the lows or you go from the split. So the split up starts here okay and then the previous one would be like right there. Okay, giving this the new long V-wap zone. Now once we have held this, we're going to V-wap the next one for the next trade.

Okay, which is here all right now. this holds and it breaks up. So we're going to Anchor one here. Now we're going to Anchor one here.

on the split up and that becomes the next support dip. V-wap up. So what I just taught you is V-wapping the V web for looking at continuation dips in a trend. So if we were to delete all those V webs we just put on, it would really just look like this.

We have a buy signal in the purple. We anchor a V-wap to the candles that break over the tennisame and start the move. We also do it on the 50 SMA but nonetheless, just like back here ready. So this is the this was a sell signal.

Okay, so there's a cell signal and now we would anchor V-wap to the price that breaks the 10 SMA and your entry is going to be on the 10 SMA view app. Okay, so like this, we get a sell signal. Anchor goes to the tests. It may break your entry becomes the yellow.

All right. That was when that was in the past. so let's just take that off. Okay, now we're here.

We have a Buy Signal anchored to the candle that breaks the 10 SMA and then this view app becomes your long bias swing entry. Zone Okay, so same concept and Market goes off. The only thing that I was doing was just showing you an additional step which is tagging the V web splits for your next support level which again is basically like that. Okay, so in a nut shell, the market is not going to have an extremely Bearer sell-off until it's back below the price of the 50 SMA or the V app in yellow.

So right now prices of 3949 um on this SPX to 393 on SPX r support. If we were to correlate that to the Spy, it will be this. We are not going to see any sort of bearish selling on the market until the Spy breaks below 394. Or yeah, 394 to 39366.

So ultimately, we're still in a long bias Market because we're on a Buy Signal the market is trading above the 10 SMA So ultimately still long bias the market going into tomorrow. Um, the last thing that we'll talk about are some statistics. So looking at statistics, deleting some of the old drawings, we're just going to look at statistics now. So just looking simply at statistics, the way that we'd read this is the market has hold the long-term statistical mean.

This is fair value in the market, hence why you've seen so much dip, buying, activity, and accumulation there. So the market has held the statistical average or the fair value, which again, is just this longer term scale. There's a bunch of squiggly lines here. All we're doing is running a probability statistics bell curve on the chart, which pretty much says this seventy percent of the time the markets are going to trade in between one to negative one standard deviations of the mean or the fair value.

The fair value is this white line in the middle. Okay, the markets will trade 70 percent of the time within one to negative one deviations of that. So plus one deviation is here. the yellow negative one deviation is here the yellow.

So the market will trade 70 percent of the time from negative one to positive one around the mean. The mean is white. That's the fair value right there. Bounce back to plus one back to the mean through the mean to negative one from negative one to zero Fair value back to negative one to zero fair value.

Cross over fair value two plus one back to the mean Two plus one trading plus one to plus two. Little overbought there cells back down to negative one or sorry, that's still plus one towards the mean back into plus one to plus two, vary over bot down through plus one back to the zero line. Bounce to zero line. So essentially the market is constantly fluctuating from negative one to positive 1 around the long term fair value statistical mean.

Okay, so what that means is we have just accumulated in a bounced off the mean. So essentially as long as your markets maintain over this Zone this is the halfway marker. So in between negative one to plus one right, so you have plus one is the yellow orange up here. zero is the white line.

This is negative one negative 1 Positive one zero. Okay, this becomes positive Point Five Negative Point Five It is the intermediate halfway zone between a full deviation or full one standard deviation move distribution. So this is always a key level to watch in the immediate as in markets might break down from the one trying to go to the zero, but along the way they're going to get caught up at the fifty percent. Zone And until they take out the 50 Zone they won't go to the mean.

Same concept when you bounce the mean before you can go back to the plus one, you must clear 0.5 Okay, so um, all we're basically saying is we've bounced the mean and now we're over the halfway point. So as long as the Market's maintain over three nine, six forty, we're going to Target up to 406s. Okay, so Market is going to go 406 405. and if it doesn't then the next move or whatever is just going to be back down to the half deviation.

So right now, these are the two main big algorithm spots that are open for play in the market right now. Okay, when the Market's broke down here, the two big algorithm spots in the market were here and here. Okay, when the markets broke down this plus one, the targets become this plus one and this halfway marker. When the markets break down this halfway marker, the high probability zones are the half deviation to the mean.

Okay, if we took out the mean here, then the targets would be mean to. Here, we have bounced the mean. We have gone up. We have taken out the halfway point to the plus one.

Now your high probability prices are here and here. the market moves in boxes and in chunks. So essentially when one door closes, one door opens. so we were trading above the halfway we finally got below, pull back so low that opens the door for the mean.

We have held the mean and bounced over the half deviations. Here, this door has been closed. We're not going there for now and now. it's this here to here.

Okay, so with that being said, I Guess you could say Max long targets for me over the next week or two probably like a week or so is basically up to 406.29 pullbacks would be expected down to Three, Nine, Six, Forty nine, but we already did that today and held very well. So for now it's still same same deal Targets would be up to here as long as markets are maintaining over this. Because if they were to go below this and start maintaining below, then we open up the door for this trade zone here. But right now we're in this trade zone.

Okay, so that's tonight's uh recap. Hope you guys enjoy. With that being said, take care and I'll catch you back tomorrow morning.