Hey everyone me kevin here. The latest data shows that big money is dumping on us and in this video i'm going to go through some tips that i would recommend you look at for your portfolio. There are four specific things that i think you should look at for your portfolio. This isn't financial advice.

I think this is just common sense advice, but it's a conversation that we have to have so that we can properly align what's going on in markets with what the heck we want in terms of our goals, which is obviously the moon. But we got to set the proper expectations note every time i go live i like to use stream yard, though so make sure to check out metcalfon.com streamyard to learn more about professional, live streaming software all right, let's get into this. So what do we got? We've got a dow, that's fallen for four straight weeks. We've got an s p 500 that slid four out of five days this week.

The vix volatility or fear index is well over 30 and we've been sitting over 30 for a while. We've got a lot of fear about the federal reserve, specifically the cpi data that is coming out on thursday and the recession signal that we continue to get slapped in our face, which is the 10-2 if the 10-2 yield curve inverts folks, every single time it has Inverted in the past, it has signaled a recession in case you have absolutely no idea what the 10-2 is here is a picture of the 10-2 shout out to bloomberg for this. Basically, this line uh that you've got right here is the difference between the 10-year treasury yield and the two-year treasury yield, and any time this goes below zero. It has signaled a recession coming within the next 18 months, sometime sooner sometimes later.

Okay, just because of the way the economy is setting things up, the markets start pricing in a recession and then sure enough, you self-fulfill a recession anyway. The yield spread has plummeted, which makes the likelihoods of recession greater. In january we saw the yield curve go from just about 90, all the way down to 60 and people started freaking out about the yield curve. Then, in february we saw it go from 60 down to 40 and even 38, and then people started freaking out about the yield curve.

Okay, we're four days five days now into march, we're at 24 basis points of a spread right now. If we have plummeted in terms of the yield curve here, it's kind of freaky now some of it could be manipulated because of obviously war. Treasury bonds are a type of flight to safety asset, especially 10-year bonds, uh and so we're seeing the yields on the 10-year plummet faster than the two year is plummeting more short-term bonds and that's why you're seeing this yield compression. So there is an argument that a lot of this inversion or near inversion or in i should say flattening because we're not inverting, yet this flattening could be due to just straight-up war manipulation, just the fact that people get fearful, so they put their money away for 10 years, because the conflict could last for the next two, so let's put our money away for 10 and let's feel a little safer for a while.

If things u-turn, okay, we'll dump those bonds and then we'll go uh, we'll go, you know, yields will go back up and then we'll go back into risky assets or whatever right, but normal retail. Folks, like you - and i don't do that right, we look at our stocks and we're like all right man dca buying the dip. I mean that's. The only thing other youtubers are talking about is just dca, so i may as well do that too.

Okay, but here's! Here's the problem all right: here's the problem with that professional traders are dumping on us. This is why we keep seeing trades below the 200-day moving average on the spy and the qqq uh, and we keep getting lower on the fibonaccis. So take a look at it. You've seen this many times before uh, i am turning off the fibonacci for right now, because we talk about that a lot, but here's your 200-day moving average, the blue line right here we were below it in january.

We briefly went above it and everybody's, like hurrah, and what happened. Institutions took the opportunity to swipe, sell profit boom, we're right back under the 200-day moving average. This is on the spy and historically buying under the 200-day moving average is a really good thing. I mean put it on the week right here: the the 200-day moving average is going to change to the 200-week moving average here.

So you wouldn't expect to be under the 200-week moving average here when you go out to weak, so ignore the fact that the blue line is is distant here. But the point is uh these these larger dips. They can tend to be big buying opportunities. I mean compare the velocity of the dip that we're seeing here or the magnitude i should say, of the dip here to march of 2020..

I mean this dip is starting to look worse than march of 2020. that qqq's down like 16 17. Obviously we fell a little bit more on qqq back then smaller numbers, but it certainly feels quite painful right now i mean we went from like 240 to 160, which was somewhere around a 34 drop. Okay, so there's definitely still more pain to be had uh, but anyway uh.

If, if drama continues - and i don't expect that we would have more fear like we did in march of 2020, but the point is: institutions are dumping on this. In fact, bloomberg told us. Yesterday evening that professional traders are looking to take a step back at the same time as individual investors are flowing in chase is looking at retail laughing at us. Going huh retail bought 4.1 billion dollars tuesday to tuesday and goldman sachs is like man it's time to unwind risk.

In fact, risk is being unwound at its fastest pace that we have seen in the last three months, and it makes you wonder: okay, why? Why are we potentially seeing this unwinding? Well, it's because you're getting projections from uh banks like goldman sachs, that say a barrel of oil could go to 150. Jp morgan thinks a barrel of oil could go to 180. Just so, you know if oil goes to 150, we're gon na add about two percent to cpi. So if we're at eight percent, you know looking backwards when this next cpi report comes out next week and we add two percent to that - be two percentage points to that and we don't get any softening at the same time as oil hits 150 we're going to Be a 10 freaking percent inflation, and so this is why the yield curve in part is also flattening because people like oh gosh, if we hit multi-digits inflation, we're going to get paul, volcker but you're, also starting to get these reports from companies like ubs, who are Like well, here are the trajectories, and this is one of the things that's really important for you to look at for your portfolio is this? Is your outlook for folks? You know, you think we're going to go back to all-time highs.

Okay, all-time highs are right here. All right, let's first of all, ubs, does not think in any way it's possible for us to go back to all-time highs this year. In fact, their scenario number one calls for a de-escalation in the russia contract or conflict, and maybe maybe we we start getting somewhat close to those january early january, all-time highs, but we're certainly not going to exceed them. The second case scenario here scenario: number two is uncertainty around russia.

Ukraine conflict continues, and maybe we actually end up with the spy turning negative this year, which would be spy about what 46.50, maybe somewhere around there around the end of the year and a very slow curve to get there. I mean maybe a little faster here through april may, but pretty much a boring year here not much to miss out on, but they believe that if we get a further escalation, putin ramps up, these nuclear threats continues to saber rattle the nuclear weapons uh. Taking control of nuclear power plants uh six out of 15 uh reactors in ukraine now under russian control, now you've got people in europe who are freaking out going great. You know if we have uh radioactive fallout that that occurs due to damage to these facilities.

Now radioactive material is going to come flowing over to our side, our neck of the woods, and this is going to piss us off, send more missiles and weapons to ukraine. Obviously, ukraine is like hey enforce our airspace and nato's like no. No, we won't do that because that could start world war three and ukraine's, like you, think if putin keeps going he's not going to start world war iii, you know so anyway. This would obviously be the further escalation side.

I don't want to come across as saying that that's what i believe is going to happen. It's not what i believe is going to happen uh, but i mean in this case they actually see the potential for the s p 500 to drop all the way to potentially 37 just above 3 700.. And so, if we look at the s, p 500 right now, it's sitting at 43.28. So if we go 3700 4328, that's about another 15 drop puts us down somewhere around 26 27 percent from all-time highs at the beginning of the year.

So, in other words, even though the magnitude of this actually looks worse than march of 2020, we might not be done yet right, and this is why institutions are dumping on us, because the institutions are like okay, we're going to pair back risk. Now, i'm not trying to fear monger, i'm just telling you what the institutions are doing, because the institutions are looking at this they're going we're about to face a food crunch and an energy crunch and there's no way to catch up with supply fast enough. Even if we approve the keystone pipeline xl tomorrow, the fourth phase of the keystone pipeline gl gg, like good luck, good game, like prices are still going to the moon. Production is still collapsing, especially in the area around ukraine.

Russia we've got many companies pulling out of russia. We expect russia's gdp uh to get crushed here somewhere, 20 to 30 percent inflation of maybe 40 in russia. That's why they raised interest rates to 20, but it's not just them. You've got britain's economy already slowing down due to both reasons.

Inflation and war now projected to have just gdp growth of three point: six percent uh, and if that ends up rotating down more, you could end up with european recessions out of all of this disaster and we're gon na get to the better news. In just a moment, i promise you look at china and the chinese people they're, so freaking shell-shocked, not so much by war, although maybe they are, but more so by what's happening with evergrand they're, like dude the writings on the wall like stop trying to stimulate this Market we ain't spending, you know what the chinese are doing. They're pocketing everything household savings in january rose 4x uh the savings rate that they had in january of 2021. That's insane! That's a huge signal of fear by the chinese and the chinese are very frugal people when they, when they notice.

Okay, things things are starting to stink. Here things are starting to smell, you know and where there's smoke there's fire, they start saving money. New household loans are down 50 year-over-year. So look at that weak chinese consumption, they're, staying away from debt, they're saving money, they're consuming less nike, says: sales fell, 24 year-over-year from uh ending in november.

This was even before the war drama, but right around the evergrand drama. Right starbucks around roughly the same period, ending though in january saw 14 percent decline. You've got china now thinking, maybe they're going to increase their infrastructure spending. So so that way, their gdp potentially remains higher, but they don't have the inflation issues that we do and they're freaking out.

Okay, at the same time, you look over here and what are retail traders doing well, according to vandertrak retail buyers last week, are flowing right into these names amd neo, which, if the chinese consumer is not spending money, why are you buying neo? Okay, look! Don't get me wrong, i love neo. They are my tesla china, even though tesla's probably the tesla of china, but i love neo. I support neo. I love the battery swapping idea, especially for the chinese culture, which is less likely to have garages and places to potentially charge, although maybe in the future, every parking spot.

You know like everywhere, there's a tree. You end up having a charger. I don't know um, but anyway, okay, chinese consumers, buckling up here and and our retail buyers here in america are still flowing into neo. Okay, all right keep spinning on baba, but anyway, uh flowing into amd neo, uber, sofi, qqq s, p, 500 rivian, boeing, united airlines and x spin.

Obviously, we've also had a huge uh inflow of retail skyrocketing, the wheat etf, which is discorrelated from the actual underlying price of wheat. Although they have been correlated it's it's some people are saying: oh, my gosh don't buy the weed etf you're, making wheat more expensive. No! No, these are the wheat companies that might get more expensive. This is different anyway uh, so so over here in america, people like ah come on man buy, the fear, buy the fear.

At the same time, we're also - and i've bought some of the fear as well right. At the same time, we have less risk of a fed rug poll because my concerns over a wage price spiral unspiraled yesterday, because that jobs report watched my video from yesterday on that really really good. So far, by the way, retail has been so by the fracking dip that we have plowed 36 billion dollars into the market in 2022. That is the most in the first two months and five days of any year in the last five years.

That's crazy - and this is despite the fact that a lot of companies are starting to write down their expected earnings guidance because of closing their stores in places like uh like russia. You know disney's taken, write, downs, we've seen, write downs from american express, saying, hey, you know we're going to lose a lot of spending over here i mean think about the companies that are closed out of russia. Now, apple burberry, ea hermes, h, m ikea nike under armour many more boeing right. These companies are pulling out, that's going to hurt global growth and global gdp, and it does show up.

I mean even just a one percent miss on earnings. You know is going to get punished this year in america so like we can't keep our head in the sand. They're like well. I was out partying last friday night.

I know so was i okay. I still spent money on beer going out or whatever i did like. I understand that civilians are dying and i feel horrible about it, but i i still bought the same amount of beer, just one uh that that i would have otherwise right. Yes, that's fine, but again when we get those earnings from nike and they just miss by a fraction.

You know this market's gon na piss off on them. Anyway talked about the oil inflation. We talked about the fed uncertainty uh. We talked about the future uncertainty regarding earnings.

We talked about what's happening with, with china, uh and and now we've actually got a fed. That's releasing data, saying hey, you know what high inflation might actually be good because it devalues our national debt. So maybe we can uh stick around with high inflation for longer. It's crazy.

The st louis fed literally said that they released a research piece on this kind of interesting. So, anyway, what what are my recommendations on this uh and again, i want to be clear, not financial advice. I just spewed a lot of madness here and i i want to give you some takeaways for this environment that we're in uh, and i think the easiest way to start is again by looking back at this particular chart from ubs. And i want you to ask yourself this: okay, what is your opportunity cost for sitting on the sidelines? Okay, here's your opportunity cost! If, if ubs is correct, which it could be wrong right, maybe we'll go to the moon, maybe inflation will go to zero war.

Will end and everybody will go back to spending money like crazy, including the chinese, and you know what we'll hit all-time new highs and we're going to tom lee this market we're going to 5500 this year. Folks, this is the best buying opportunity ever maybe okay, maybe in which case i'll be damned, never getting off. Train america again right uh, but there's there's a uh possible and then there's probable right. So if the s p right now is at 43 28 and the best case scenario here by ubs is 4 700..

Our opportunity cost on the s p 500. Buying this crop right now is about 8 8.5. That's actually pretty decent. Look.

If i could get an annual return of 8.5, that's fair, but if you average in the other potential scenarios, the opportunity cost is probably risk adjusted more like four to five percent uh, certainly on the larger indices. Maybe the opportunity cost is a little bit larger for uh for, like smaller caps. That is maybe like a shift. Technology can go from a buck 70 to six dollars at the same time as the s p kind of rotates back up.

But it's going to take going all on risk again right and it's going to take that momentum money coming back and it's going to take a perfect resolution to all of the uncertainties that we have, and so in my opinion, i think there is a little rush. Like you should feel, in my opinion, little anxiety to try to just buy every day the markets just doing nominal things like, in my opinion, the time to buy big, is kind of what i did uh and i'm not trying to pat myself on the back. Okay. But uh when, when you get these insane fear moves to the downside i like to use trading view.

Maybe a lot of you don't know about that, but i like to use trading view. Uh ftx incorporates trading view, but i really like to use trading view uh itself and uh and when you start seeing you're hitting the bollinger bands, basically and you're starting to hit uh some of these. These, like massively oversold territories like you, see uh at the beginning or sort of jan 24, 25 over here and uh feb 24. Those are good fear opportunities to buy because then, when you get those swing backs, that is when at least you have some insulation during this insanity.

But again, if you bought over here, you'd still be upside down right now. Ah, maybe you'd be about break even right. Now right, so, i would like to save money for those really peak moments of fear. So the first recommendation - hashtag, not financial advice - that i have is patience, grasshoppers, patience, patience, patience, patience, very, very important.

I know that's boring to say, but just have some cash on the side when that freaking fear hits the fam and i pop on in that morning, live stream, just like i did on feb 24th with course members - and i'm like this - is a fear buy right Here this is a moment and we're buying tesla at 700.. Hell yeah, that is insulation all right, so patience helps for those sorts of moments. Uh number two, i highly highly highly consider or would would recommend again hashtag, not recommending financial advice. Just think about this yourself.

I'm recommending you think about this: lower your risk in the stocks you're choosing uh high high risk right now are going to be uh uh a lot of altcoins and small caps. Also small caps profitless, i hate to say at the affirms uh the the sofa, although so fast, can be profitable more sooner than a firm. These are great for risk plays, but when the yield curve is collapsing, the last place i want to be is where lending is rocket mortgage so fi a firm. I hate to say it.

I have a little bit of a firm. I almost bought a little bit so far. Actually i still hold the tiny little bit so far. I love these companies, but rates going up and going into a recession, potentially not not great places to be.

If i'm going to be in stocks, i'd rather be in. In somewhat of the less risky ones, in my opinion, that's going to be your sort of the googles, the tesla uh and i know some people hear me say less risky for tesla and they're like you're out of your freaking, mind like well, you know, after this, This drawdown that we've seen from the the highs around 1200 - i think this is this - is not unreasonable for the growth uh, maybe end phase. So it's going to be more volatile, uh, the the google's right. So, look at these, in my opinion, nvidia, okay, so patience less risk.

Okay, number three get the f out of debt like i don't. I i've been saying this since november since november, when we were at the top of the market, i'm like folks i'm taking profits here. This is why i had a profitable trading year. Last year like i was unprofitable, but i was very, very patient throughout last year and then, when we had that november rally, i'm like let's freaking go and i'm cashing in on all my call options that i had that weren't negative.

That were now up like a hundred to three hundred percent. It was beautiful and i just like cha-ching chain cha-ching ringing, the bell at the top right, taking some profits off the table. But what else was i doing? Get out of margin, get out of margin, get out of margin, so so important. If you have not done that yet do that now pay off those credit cards pay off debts uh.

The only debt that you should have is real estate debt ever so patience, lower risk, lower debt uh take profits on some of those runners that you have and then maybe like a fifth bonus thing is consider harvest some losses against some winners. So if, if you've taken some, if you've got some a certain stock, that's doing really well or it's killing it or you've got a lot of gains in it. It doesn't, in my opinion, hurt to potentially realize some of those profits dump some of the losers wash that out and talk to a cpa about this. So potentially you lower your tax liability.

You can rebuy your winner back. You just have to wait 30 days to rebuy your loser in order not to trigger the wash sale rule, which is you can't buy the stock or derivatives like options 30 days before or after you decide to take a loss on on a transaction. So, look at these five things really critical, very, very important. Okay, if you like these sort of like pep talks, come on folks every single day the market is open.

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I add to the courses and i've had my courses uh. You know my. I started doing courses back in what 2017 2018 i've never stopped doing live streams. I keep adding content to the courses.

I i think they're like living and breathing children of mine, so anyway uh and also, if you like, the way, i think, check out the link down below for metkevin.com series, a that's a potential investment opportunity. That'll uh first be available to course, members and then anybody else who signs up for that list all right. Folks, thanks so much for being here, we'll see you soon bye.