Hey this is tom, and today we're talking about crowdstrike whether you should stay in that crowdstrike at this price level, 265 or you should get out now. I can't tell you what to do, because i'm not a financial advisor, i'm just a guy on the internet - and this is just my opinion, which means it might be inaccurate, might be wrong, might be the ramblings of a madman. You have to do the research for yourself, but i can share with you my opinion, allegedly blah blah blah. So what happened is on march 8, as you can see on this chart right here and by the way this chart is available to download for every single patron and channel member five bucks per month.

You get access to this chart which basically gives you the right to audit me at any single moment. So on this chart you can see. I spoke about crowdstrike on march 8th and i told you that at 177 this stock is insanely undervalued. Now my latest target price was 260 dollars.

We just blew past it now at 265.. The big question is: should we stay or should we get out now it's a personal decision for every single one, but i'm going to share with you my own personal decision and my own consideration. So you can do your own research based on that. So, as you can see right here, this is from my patreon page on march 8th.

I posted this and i said, hey 177 is cheap. I think this is a 220 stock. Then i raise it to 250. Then i raise it to 260..

The question is: am i going to raise it to 265 or 270? Hang on i'm going to show you why the answer is no and, as you know in my videos, the bottom line comes first, you really didn't think i'm going to drag you through the video. Just to find that out, the answer is no 260 is my top of the line limit. But if you want to stick around and see the analysis you're more than welcome, so by the way i did post this exclusive video just for patrons and channel member two days after my original post on march 10th, where i go through the stuff of basically, why The fundamentals actually make sense for this company to go higher than 177. It's still available to download for patrons and channel members.

So right here, what you can see is the first item i want to start with. This is the finances of the company. As you can see, this company is sitting on 1.7 billion of cash, which is quite a lot if you compare the total assets which are 2.8 billion and let's take away goodwill, which is about 300 right here. So we're talking about 2.5 billion in assets now they do have 2 billion in liabilities, but their liability versus assets positive.

The one thing that should strike you is that this company used to make 52 million dollars per year just four years ago, right now, they're, almost at one billion four years later, as you can see right here, the revenue growth in the past year was 77 still Expected to remain high at 57 next year, even though pandemic is kind of going away. It's a company, that's growing, but even with 56 growth. Can we justify this price? Well, if you go to tip ranks you'll find out that most people don't really think so. Currently, their target price is 267.

The share price is 265. So essentially these analysts don't think that you can go any higher. Now. If i just go by five star analysts right here, you can see that there's a mixed result.

Some of them think it's undervalued. Some of them think it's overvalued, but it's a mixed bag. Now one thing to pay attention to is that this stock had an amazing run up 131 and a half percent in a year. Now, if you want to see more growth like this, something exponentially insane has to happen, because it's already after a massive run-up hold on, i want to show you more stuff, as you can see here, their margins are right in line with sas companies.

73 74 they're. Not really generating any ebitda, because all the money goes back into marketing and r d, which makes sense for this type of company. That's not really their problem. The net margins are not their thing.

Here's where the thing is look at their valuation. Ev sales is 60. 1200 overvalued look at this ev ebitda forward because they currently don't have any positive aveda 1800 over value. Look at this price to sales.

58.62. 1200 overvalued. As you can see right here, these valuations are extremely high. The question is, can they be justified, and i want to show you my dcf, because this one is really all about the money.

So what i did here is an abbreviated version. I just went straight for cash flow, so this company is generating about 500 million free cash flow. You can go check me on this, so i gave it a 50 growth for five years. So here's my basic dcf and what i did here i took their free cash flow, which is about 500 million right now.

Last 12 months i did a 50 growth 50 per year for five years, which is an insane assumption. People used to give me a lot of for this, so this is max style, 10 discount rate 4, perpetual growth rate 25 x multiplier, and this is what we got 300 for the multiplier approach: 217 dollars for the perpetual approach, a blended rate of 257 257. Currently priced at 265, my target price was 260, so even at max assumptions where i max out everything positive about this company we're still hitting 260 as the ceiling. So for me, i'm out i love crowdstrike.

I hope i'm wrong about this because i absolutely love the company. I hope they explode out of the stratosphere, but for me at this point risk management wise 260. When we got in at 177, we did 50 on this. I think that's enough for me.

I'm gon na be heading out. You guys decide for yourself because you do have to do your research, not a financial advisor. Just the gander, internet, you do you. I do me.

Thank you for the channel members. Thank you for the patreons. You guys are amazing. This dcf will be available to download within the next 24 hours from our patreon page and the channel members section if you're, a member or a patreon, so go ahead play around with it see if you get any sort of different results.

Let me know in the comments, if you agree and disagree i'll see you tomorrow.