Hey this is tom, and, as expected, gordon johnson has started his pavlovian reaction to what we just saw in china. So the moment we heard the news about the chinese deliveries breaking records 67 000 vehicles in the month of september alone. For tesla, i made a video a few days ago, and i told you gordon johnson is going to have his pavlovian reaction, trying to explain to you how that is actually a precursor to a tesla decline in china and, of course, his pavlovian ass was not late To the party, and now we have a video of him, trying to gymnastically fit himself through a shoehorn to a pigeonhole, to try to explain how this record-breaking delivery numbers actually justify a bearish look on tesla in china, so this is going to be a blast. Let's kick it off.

I want to bring in gordon l, johnson research analyst at glj, gordon good morning to you. Did anybody else notice that his middle name is l? The man who takes l's for a living has a l for a middle name. I find it poetic almost like a if my dentist was named, dr tooth. It doesn't matter.

Let's move forward. Tesla has had trouble with deliveries in the past, but what are you rambling about sister? What delivery problems in the past which passed which delivery problems? Can you please specify the only delivery problems tesla face is not having enough of them. There's a seven month waiting period, they literally can't make enough cars to meet demand tesla having delivery problems, i mean, if you're actually saying that tesla not being able to meet demand is a bad thing and you want to qualify it as delivery problems. That's going to pretty much make whatever this dude has to say nonsensical.

So i honestly don't know what the hell you're talking about, but great journalism right there. What do these numbers tell you about where the company's at and by the way i just want to point out, it seems like he's doing this interview from his toilet, because this seems like a bathroom to me. I don't know, maybe i'm wrong, but this the size of this room with the whiteness of it. It just seems to me like a bathroom like room and it might be very much plausible, there's a mirror behind them.

Maybe there's a sink little sink. I don't know. I just find it amusing. Let's kick it off yeah, i think they're.

When you look at the numbers, the analysis is much different than i think what the media and the sell side is putting out. Let me explain so you have to look at the three q numbers in total, not the september numbers, which is what a lot of people are looking at. For instance, in october, their sales in china will probably be down anywhere from 50 to 70, so mark these words, please somebody clip this and let's watch it again. In october, this man has literally made a prediction that tesla's deliveries in china will be 70 down next month, so they just did a 20 percent 27 spike from august to september, delivering 67 000 vehicles from 44 last month, and this man is saying they're going to Have a 70 drop next month now a lot of people who believe this dude and actually surely the company based on these predictions are now broken, pretty much homeless.

Remember that movie with eddie murphy, where he was giving out money for the homeless, and this was like the two dudes from trading places - uh yeah, it's pretty much the same story here, so this is a very bold prediction. Let's go this way um by bold, i mean entirely asinine but sure why not good luck with it, gordon what happened in 3-2 well in 3-q, tesla lost about 150 basis points of any v-share in china. They lost about 50 basis points of bev share in china and for the first time since tesla's shanghai factory was up and running byd outsold tesla and battery electric vehicle cars byd. Let me look at my number sold about 92 000 electric cars and 3q tesla sold about 73 000., so tesla's market share is declining in china and that's so.

I just want to understand something here, gordon, not that i'm putting doubt in your financial gymnastics which you love to do, but how the hell did you come up with these numbers, so he's saying that tesla sold 73 000 vehicles in china in q3 now q3. To my understanding is july august september, so i don't know how much they sold in july, but in august they sold 44 000 vehicles. They just sold 67 000 vehicles in september by my math - that's 11, 11 111 000 vehicles just in august and september. So i honestly don't understand where he's coming up with these 73 000 numbers, so if byd indeed sold 90 something thousand vehicles just in august and september tesla sold more.

So i really don't understand where this man is getting his numbers from and it's it's a mystery. Nobody knows, despite the fact that they introduced the model y sr plus, which was 20 lower than the up the model y available in china before 3q, so they had a new model in china, their market share fell and they sold roughly. You know: 11 000. More cars, 2q to 3q and versus one q they sold about uh.

You know 3. 000. No, i don't know, no, i don't know gordon because you're full of what the hell are you talking about just in the month of may i'm looking at my numbers who actually come from a credible source. I don't know where you're getting your numbers from, but based on my numbers.

Tesla delivered 22 000 vehicles in the month of may this year, 22 000 vehicles in may fast forward. Just the month of august, they doubled that 44 000 vehicles in august fast forward to september they tripled that so these guys tripled their deliveries from 21 to 67 in just four months. To say that this is an indicator of market share. Loss is probably one of the craziest statements i've ever heard in my life, i'm not going to lie, but even that might not be entirely incorrect.

Even if the percentage of the tesla market share in china is coming down. That's not necessarily a bad thing. I'm not saying that this is right, but let me just explain a few things: while the chinese electric vehicle market is expanding at an alarming rate, it's going crazy. More and more chinese people are buying electric vehicles, so the market, the total addressable market, is growing like crazy.

So you can look at the percentage of tesla from the entire market and you can say well. The percentage is coming down. Look at how much car they're selling they just triple their deliveries in four months, so they have a smaller percentage of a much much bigger market. That's as simple as that.

There's nothing complicated about gordon. Why can't you see numbers as they are simple? So the point is, when you take a step back and consider their market shares falling, also consider when they launch the model 3 in the first quarter of 2020, the sales of that car over three quarters versus the model y in the first quarter of 2021. The model y cells are down 50 percent versus the model 3 cells. The man is extracting the most irrelevant convoluted stats to make it seem as if tesla is really hurting and taking a hit.

Remember just simple: math: 21 000 vehicles - 22 000 vehicles in may 67. 000 vehicles in april, that's a three x deliveries versus what they had just four months ago. Nobody's losing market share, nobody's hurting. In fact, if he's resorting to doing you know bathroom interviews, i guess he's the one who's hurting and i guess it's okay, that they feel salty, but i mean these financial gymnastics is getting out of hand.

The actual demand for tesla's cars in china is imploding. So i think that's a key how mother lover there's a seven month waiting period for a tesla, how the demand is imploding? What the hell are you rambling about? I don't understand this man. He used to be such a good analyst. You want to look out market share, loss byd, taking over as the bev share leader and selling yeah, and the easter bunny is going to come and the aliens are going to take market share a total amount leader in china, um and their growth slowing in china.

So i think the numbers are farther: how is their growth slowing in china, i'm going to say it again? They grew 27 in deliveries from last month to this month they triple deliveries from may to september. How is it slowing down? Do you not understand what slowing down means, maybe like we're in the opposite world, the upside down world? What the hell is going on less optimistic than people are painting uh really fascinating stuff. What do you make of what's happening in china in general? Really fascinating stuff? Not necessarily in terms of of the electric vehicle sales, but we're seeing china, the government cracking down on industries across the board, not just tech, but also a company which, which tutors kids are you concerned at all that perhaps they are going to crack down on tesla Or some of some of the automakers, if there's a lab question, you just heard it that's the most lab question she could have made yeah i mean look at. If you look at the auto sales in china, they were down roughly 16 in the third quarter.

Keep in mind right, you probably won't even believe the statistic. No, we won't believe the statistic coming from you for sure you called it for once. I agree with gordon i'm not going to believe the statistic in 3q. Tesla was just 1.5 of china's auto sales total auto cells.

These are things that nobody who's looking at these numbers are talking about. Everybody who looks at tesla always wants to paint a positive picture, so no it's because they're killing it and you just refuse to see it, and let me tell you a little story: if one guy comes up to me and tells you hey, you're drunk it's meaningless, One guy's opinion: if two people are saying that you should pay attention if everybody's saying you're drunk that means you're drunk it's as simple as that people looked at the september number, they didn't look at the prior two months, which were horrible when they talked about that. How were they horrible? They sold 44 000 vehicles in august and now in 2022, with no new models coming, there's no new tesla models coming you have the mercedes eqc line coming in in china. You have the audi built-in china uh cars coming.

You have ford coming. You have byd ramping new models, neo leotto, xping rapping new models. So no, i think it's pronounced x-pang, but whatever so, we've heard this mantra many times before i've been hearing it since 2015., the competition is coming, the competition is almost here. The competition is right here.

They're banging on the door, the germans are coming, i mean bro. Now it's the chinese are coming, give it a break. I mean we've been hearing. This competition is coming for years.

They can come all they want, but it's not going to help them overcome some basic truths, which is just as the best vehicles reasonable price, the best as far as maintenance and safety and the best infrastructure and software. Now the only reason i'm going to say this again right here, i said it yesterday. The only reason people are buying other evs is because they can't get a tesla. If just look at meat demand, they would have sold 80 percent of the market of the ev market.

Telling this right now make it a clip post it online. Let's see if i got it right or wrong now we can sit here all day and just listen to this guy do financial gymnastics. I mean he's good at it, but the problem is that the facts don't lie, the numbers, don't lie, and the numbers just say one thing: tesla is killing it. This guy is making interviews in the bathroom what seems to be a bathroom, so i think we know who's winning and who's, taking it middle name, l i'll be back.