Welcome back to another market closing live stream. Folks will today the s p 500 dip into the close, like it has four out of five days last week. Remember four out of five days last week we had closing and dips as low as the lows in the prior portion of the day. Now we've been pretty much trading along the floor here on the s p 500, along with a lot of other stocks, so be interesting to see.

Will the lows today actually be low lows of the day, because remember previously, what we've seen last week is that we would have a low - let's say around that 9 to 11 o'clock hour in that sort of range, and then we would go up from there. Only to come down and crash down, essentially at the close will that same thing happen today, except since we're basically trading along the floor here. Will we see the s p 500 trade even lower than the previous lows of the day, thanks to the fact that you get weenie babies who sell their stocks on red days because they see things like arc down? Four percent and arc needs to get that money back to people uh, and so we end up seeing sell-offs in the stocks within that particular fund. Given that arc is uh falling into the close here might actually accelerate some of those uh cell uh or put some more cell pressure on uh arc funds here, as the day closes so we'll see.

Usually it's the last 12-ish minutes. That's what we've seen in the last few days it's about the last 12 minutes. Let's go ahead and see it. Let's go back a little bit, we'll look at the one minute chart here.

Let's see when we can see the fall in prior days, so here we go. It looks like the fall here really began in the last about 15 minutes really took off in about the last 12 minutes on uh. This was the this was thursday. This here is uh.

This was friday, but friday was not one of the four days. So last about 15 minutes on thursday last uh really actually more almost the last 25 to 30 minutes on wednesday last, let's see here last 16 minutes on tuesday and on monday we also had the sell-off in about the last 17 minutes. Okay, good. So in about four or five minutes, if the pattern holds true, we should start seeing the s p.

500. Oh, this is arc my bad, i'm looking at arc uh. They followed a similar pattern. Nonetheless, but duh uh.

If we're talking about the s p 500, we should be looking at the s p. 500, my bad uh and even on friday, even though friday ended up much higher and friday was not inclusive. This we still had a sell-off uh within the last about 40 minutes. On the s p, 500 on friday, here we go okay.

These are the four days that i was talking about. Okay last about 22 minutes on thursday last uh inflection point also about 22 minutes. That's about right now, last about uh 15 minutes with the first dip around 40 minutes for tuesday, and then mondays was last 13 minutes sudden a sudden acceleration here, something interesting, very, very interesting. We will see now.

Will we get an accelerated sell-off into the close here as people bail out of funds? My guess is yes uh and so we'll see, i'm i'm excited for this. I've raised a little bit of cash sent over some money. I also did some investing today options and investing. Remember you get all my buy, sell alerts and that stocks and psychology money program link down below, but folks, let's um see what happens here.

In the meantime, let's do a little bit of an overview of uh. What the heck is happening because there's a lot uh, specifically the nasdaq's, getting battered the most of nasdaq technologies here. But let's take a peek here. So we got the dow jones industrial down; 1.04 s; p; 500 down 1.46, the nasdaq down almost two and a half percent uh sitting at two point: four one percent russell: two thousand down one point: one: eight volatility index up to twelve point: two, not as high As what we saw earlier at about 14, but still elevated here, moving along uh, we are going to be watching the s p 500 into the close here today.

We're expecting uh elf fall we're about 19 minutes away from the close and we've seen a various uh sell-offs begin between what was it 22 minutes and about 12 minutes. So in this next 10 minute period here will we see the start to an inflection point to the downside or not? If we do, if, for example, let's draw a line here, if we saw a line like a if we broke the 126 5 line, which i got to remember to uh delete this line after i draw it here. But if we break this line the 126.5 here and we go below this, we might have an opportunity to uh to go shopping again. I don't mind doing that, because we've already been doing that today.

So i'm just going to drop purple here, sort of a temporary reminder that i'm going to be getting rid of this uh line here so uh we're gon na keep an eye on this so far. Right now we're not seeing any kind of real directional movement uh lines, obviously going up and down here, classic ball, uh, nothing special here! So we'll let this uh bake a little bit stew. A little bit got ta cook those tendees a little bit or hopefully not. You know over undercook them, but anyway, worth noting that bitcoin's actually up uh 49 200 bitcoin is actually having a good day.

Uh crypto in general, having a good day, ethereum's up two percent aid is up one point: five percent; no, that's not bad. You do have a tesla that was up as high as four percent, but thanks to the uh technology sell-off, we definitely had some profit taking over. In tesla we went from four percent up to up only seven uh point, uh point: seven: five percent about three quarters of one percent: hud: eight mining back to nine dollars and 58 cents. Uh you've got a firm sitting at 107.

owlette sitting at 412 expi sitting at 37.59 n phase 145 and we have very good foods up seven percent here you have gap. Gm cardano planet, tesla um cloud flare pretty much flat here, macy's pretty much flat, nordstrom relatively flat as well. It's really the big losers being over here looks like more recent ipos, more recent momentum. Movers up here, a lot of them, but even things like redfin end phase a solar edge, the pinterest twitter td, uh, a trade desk rather uh piton piton, almost under uh.

Eighty dollars a share here these folks just getting ripped on today, so uh all right. Let's see how that s, p 500 is behaving again. We've got 15 minutes to the close. It's actually going up right now, so that is a a reversal of expectations and we're seeing what we're looking for is volume to go up so volumes going up and pricing's going up.

That's a sign that the uh potentially the institutions, rather than selling or actually buying the debt, which would be very good because that's what we've been doing uh now, it would mean less of a buy the dip opportunity going into the close. But that's okay! You don't really want to have a dip every single day, because then that means you're going straight down, uh, so uh good news for those who have already bought the dip. If we end up getting a volume, pushing us uh into a rally into the clothes that'll be very interesting, can we break above 2, 30. uh? My expectation is still that we're gon na have a sell-off here in the last 15 minutes, unless, of course, we do see the buy, the dipping come out of the institutions and the funds entirely possible.

So we'll see what happens all right so uh, let's see uh. Let's see what things we've got here, we have bloomberg bloomberg bloomberg biden biden. We talked about this blaming mcconnell made a video about this, encourage you to watch that if you have not yet bloomberg commodity spot index rises to a record notification banner just came across. That's not going to be good for those inflation fears, yeah facebook's still down and mark zuckerberg loses seven billion dollars in hours as facebook plunges it says, plunges uh, yeah, okay, bitcoin eyes, fifty thousand dollars for the first time since the el salvador rollout many tesla short Sellers are giving up yeah good, get out it's true.

The short interest in tesla has been plummeting. It just has not been a very profitable trade for folks. Sorry, michael burry, not right about tesla. Well, that's why i sent him an eggplant uh, all right, so uh yeah golly.

Let's, let's see if we can get some news here at least give us something here. In the meantime, while we wait to see uh what happened all right. Tech stocks enter correction territory as market tumbles. The nasdaq has fallen more than seven percent from its record high on september, 7th, perfect good.

Finally, a dip of over five percent, but i don't has the s p 500 sold off more than five percent yet because we have not had a uh five percent sell-off since last december. Let's go here one month, uh six months, okay here! So if we go to the high of september third, oh we're down five point: one five percent. We have finally finally had a five percent sell-off in the market. Thank goodness been waiting for this yeah a lot of folks talking about facebook.

Facebook never been really a company that i've cared much about uh. I i just don't like facebook, so i've never invested in facebook. It's just a personal problem. It is down 15 since uh september, 7th now in fairness, the fangs have really been selling off since the beginning of the month, apple down about 11.38 from its high and uh google also selling down google here uh google down.

Let's see this looks about peak issue about eight point: two: three percent uh google uh almost hit twenty six hundred dollars today, getting a little a little under pressure there. All right. So, let's see here high frequency data shows us steadying. Oh that's interesting.

Let's see what we got here, take a peek at the story here, love looking at the data, so just take me a second to pull it up here. In the meantime, i may as well keep the spy up in the background. Okay, spy's still stable, and i have not seen that big volume push yet we're at that 12 minute mark now. So, let's see, are we gon na get the big volume or is that pattern over? It is possible that that pattern is over, but uh yeah.

We're still trending up right now, so we'll see pattern could be breaking okay, so high frequency data. Here we go. What does it say? Recovery stay! That's! That's! Okay! Well, that's uh! I want the u.s here we go. Okay! Here we go as new infection rates.

Abate spending on in-person services has shown signs of improvements according to or improvement according to u.s high frequency data trackers, but consumer sentiment has deteriorated over the past four weeks, especially for the unemployed. After augmented, job benefits expired on september 6., we expend expect headwinds to gradually fade with labor demand remaining extraordinarily high. More than half 62 percent of the country has been fully vaccinated still below the 70 to 85 threshold to return normalcy, okay, so positive moves and high frequency data for the united states, but not so much in some of the developing countries like brazil or india, which Probably are suffering a little bit more on the um covet front. In fact, let's uh, let's actually take a look at that.

Let's see here covet cases, india, no actually covets, not doing horribly. You know it's uh, it's not a the low it used to have, but uh, okay, and so maybe not correlated directly here to covet yeah, not really either in brazil seems like uh it's getting it's becoming much more manageable for folks. So that's very good yeah. We just want to be over covet already: okay, so uh right at uh.

That's weird right about nine minutes here to the bell: we're getting the sharpest red candle stick, giving away some of the green push that we had here. Is this potentially the start of that selling into the clothes again? That's what my expectation was going into this, but expectations do not necessarily mean reality. What is reality, though, is getting up to seventy dollars totally for free public, just go to medcap.com public and get up to seventy dollars totally for free now check them out. They do not use payment for order flow and they don't sell your information.

You can also follow creators like me on there i'm at meet kevin, and so when i post the trade on uh public you'll see that now, which i've got some cash over at public that i got to spend. So all right. Let's see here, okay, let's write this down there. We go so uh watching the s p 500.

Here, let's now take a peek at uh financial times for a moment about nine minutes, the closing bell. We have u.s oil hitting a seven year high after opec plus resist calls to accelerate production. Ah, let's see here, um hold on one second here and on sec: okay, yeah. Okay, back we go electric vehicles.

The revolution is finally here: warren calls on the sec to probe trading by the federal reserve yeah. This is always something that uh that frustrates individuals as as it should, quite frankly, but you see uh stuff, like uh folks at the federal reserve trading um on you know on on the eve, essentially a federal reserve announcements. I think clarito was one of them. It's not good, it's just not a good look, not a good look at all, so i'm gon na have to be careful of that.

Let's see here firm, getting shorted, oh yeah, without a doubt, you're gon na see a firm get shorted. Here i did not interview the ceo. I interviewed the cfo. Can you live stream, getting your mail and waving to your neighbors with you yeah, so two members and two members of the fed resign exactly kind of sus.

It's not uh! That's good, not good! Uh! All right! Let's see central banks differ on dispelling nightmare stagflation. Oh all, right: what do we got here? Fight speaking well, let's check really quick. Okay s, p 500 still stable. It's still stable uh.

Look at that volume, though folks. Look at that volume pressure we saw. This is what these were. The high bars right here when we started rising, it was like.

Oh, are we going to get higher volume and increasing? That would be a sign to buy the dipping right now we're getting high volume uh and we did fall, but it's stable, which could also be a sign of by the dipping. You always expect big volatility here into the last few minutes, uh when you've gone uncertain times so we'll see if this volatility spikes even more or how this is going to play out. It is monday, so we'll see, whoo got ta, get that coffee flowing it's a monday, coffee kind of time. All right.

Let's see, let's go back over here all right. Central banks almost everywhere face the same bad dream: a mix of slowing growth and inflation supply shocks that together threaten stagnation so far, they're confronting the problems in different ways. Yep interest rates have already risen in norway and in many emerging economies, while the fed and bank of england moved to titan monetary policy. In contrast, the ecp ecb, rather european central bank and the bank of japan are sitting tight, no tightening yet here, but then again, europe and japan are uh, tend to have much slower growth than the united states and uh developing countries or emerging economies, certainly have more Uh growth potential built into them than the united states, which which does create more of a potential also for inflation.

Right like the last place, i would really expect to see inflation run away. Is japan because they've just been facing a crazy, crazy deflationary curve, especially with population declines and europe's kind of been on the same page, low growth, low inflation? I mean the interest rates over there on real estate are like 1.2 percent or something like insanely low. I don't even know here. Let me try this uh mortgage rates in uh.

Here, let's go to the financial capital, frankfurt, germany, yeah, yeah, okay, i don't know. Can somebody actually give me the german rates that looks like it's september 24th? What do i care about september? 24Th, i want to know today give me the rate today. Look at that, okay, so a 10-year fixed loan is 0.9 right. Now a 20-year loan is 1.52 and a 30-year loan is 2.1 come on folks.

That is like the definition of free money. My gosh that that's unbelievable anyway uh i would love to just like get mortgages over there and like bring the money over here and buy in stock. Buy stocks here. Different responses reflect the difficulty of dealing with what harvard university's, megan green calls every central banker's worst nightmare, a moment where global economic forces are both slowing and increasing inflation, slowing growth and increasing inflation.

Look at the by the dipping that's happening here. Folks. We are not getting the cell, we are not getting that cell down towards the end of the day. We are getting uh dip buying.

Here. That's also evidenced by sure our first high volume bar here of cells, we saw fall, but then we had high volume continue here and we stabilized signed by the dipping, and so it's no surprise that now you're getting some of that dip buying. This is good. I wonder if that'll be a signal for us that uh that the bottom has finally uh uh come and uh we are here.

We have arrived at the bottom because uh, it's all pretty red right. Now, it's not pretty. Actually it's it's just red uh! Let's see here, yeah dow jones still down one percent uh s, p, 500 down 1.37 and nasdaq down 2.2 continuing with the article here. The orthodox economic view is that central banks should do nothing to offset inflation caused by uh a supply shock such as this week's rise in oil prices to a seven year.

High responding to supply shock generated inflation with tighter monetary policy is extremely dangerous, and one of the reasons you see individuals say this is because you have a lag time in when interest rates actually affect the market, whereas you could essentially say. Oh, my gosh inflation's happening. Let's raise interest rates, you raise interest rates, the impact of raising rates doesn't hit the market for six months or the economy for six months, but then, six months later, the supply issue is, let's say gone and the inflationary pressures are gone and now you just have Slow growth and now you're going to basically uh, you know, pour water over a slow growth economy, while it's not inflating and you potentially push markets towards uh towards contraction or even the r word recession anyway. Central problem is that monetary policy typically works by raising or lowering economic demand if spending is growing too fast and generating inflation, higher rates dampen, the willingness of companies and households to consume same is not true.

When prices are rising because supply chains have been broken. Energy prices are increasing or there are labor shortages. In such cases, monetary policy is ill-suited for dealing with the shock says this individual. Sometimes restrictive monetary policy has worked like during the 70s oil shock, though bundesbank action kept inflation from becoming ingrained in the economy, west.

Germany's central bank got things right, then, ecb, former ecb chief economist uh, has written because its tight monetary stance gave ubiquitous guidance to other economic decision makers, as well as the public over a period of three years and kept a firm sense of direction. Yeah, i mean look if the market knows. What's up, i always feel like that's the best case scenario. The last thing you want is uncertainty over uh.

What central banks are going to do over what what jerome powell is going to say? Uh it's it's just like. It always feels like you're chasing the cat's tail or chasing your own tail. Now going around and around in circles. Here, a good good move.

Look at that we had a vol. We were wrong. The the trend has ended. We just had a this is a brand new trend.

We have not seen this before yet, where we've actually uh hit bottoms rotated up from there and then rallied into the close on the highest of volume. Folks, this is good. Let's hit the bell. We have the dow jones down 0.93 recovering slightly s: p 500 down 1.29, also recovering slightly nasdaq down 2.12, also recovering slightly and the russell 2000 down 1.04.

Look at that insane volume bar of really just by pressure that you had here in the last minute. Here we thought we thought volume was big over here uh and uh yeah. Apparently not the real volume came in there right in the last minute today. It's incredible that is incredible.

All right so we're gon na pull off cnbc here and, let's see how things closed up. So look at some of the things here. How low outlet uh for silly reasons down 24 lordstown motors down 10.41, wish down 944 ashford hospitality down 9.06 fastly down to 8.75, along with playboy meta materials, arrival, affirm, 23andme, crispr, open door, expi, ironnet and vite all down between seven and a half to nine and A half percent redfin down another seven percent and face down six six: six percent sitting at 145, mind: medicine, 221, yeah, twitter down five point: eight six percent. Today, along with upwork at five point, eight one pinterest neo as well five and a half percent of the downside, dropbox square wayfarer zillow i mean there was very - very little protection you could have today in this market is crazy.

Honestly, the best protection today was crypto, uh crypto has has done very, very, very, very well uh. Despite all this, this crazy fear yeah and then you got shebe. I might do a video on sheeb we'll see er volatility at 12., one two, three four nice very good food company up, eight percent uh doge up cinemark up cinemark's up but uh amc kind of uh looks like it's being a little left behind it's being forsaken. What's up with that yeah amc at 36.78: let's go ahead and listen into cnbc for a moment, i think, broadly speaking, it is still intact.

It's definitely undergoing one of the stiffer tests we've had in a while. I've been calling it really just a reset and and what's being reset well, expectations are being reset lower, both for earnings and really uh. How relentless the the market uh climb had been going into september. Uh we've gotten the end of these streaks when we got the final uh kind of minus five percent, close on the s p after 11 months of not having that it did sort of widen out the bands of what's going on.

You know when the mega cap stocks start to get purged after weeks and weeks when the average stock was kind of on the defensive and actually starting to bottom. That suggests that we're actually pretty far along into this process. If, in fact, there's not a lot of new macro, stress or credit uh issues popping up - and there haven't been so far, so that's where that's what i believe as well is that the the no real stresses it's just lingering crap regarding congress and inflation and the Other issues, not something that's super concerning to me, uh, more interested in getting that free stock with public worth up to seventy dollars. When you go to medken.com public, but uh, yeah, otherwise, golly i mean relaxed um, really i mean no very uneventful clothes.

Let me put it that way: very, very uneventful clothes uh was hoping for something a little bit more dramatic to really be able to take advantage of dip buys, but that's, okay. I did a whole lot of buying today. I just didn't see another opportunity there. After after my earlier buys totally fine, that gives us more cash available for tomorrow and the next day and the next day and the next day, so uh super excited about that square.

Silo italia, okay, good, so in terms of other news, though, it's relatively quiet, let me quickly see if we have any earnings coming up. I doubt it, although we are at the beginning of an earnings season, coming up, probably starting the next uh next week, yeah. No, not really. Okay, let's see next week, usually you go to like a tuesday or wednesday esc.

Next week you have jp morgan, delta, blackrock and uh. I mean those. Those are pretty big alone here and i wonder if i can go on over to next week, thursday taiwan, semiconductors bank of america, wells fargo city group, morgan stanley, wells, fargo, dominoes, u.s, bancorp earnings season begins next week and that'll come after the jobs data yeah i Mean look at all the crazy things on the horizon jobs data this friday. Next week you have cpi data released on the 13th and earnings starting out, starting with bank earnings and uh travel earnings.

Then uh you end up uh. At the same time, hitting that debt ceiling and infrastructure rights kind of makes sense why people want to sit on the sidelines a little bit for me, no problem go ahead and sell me your shares i'll, buy it so uh yeah, okay, good any other news here. Folks, little little quiet on the news front here going into the uh end of the day, warn ass. Okay, we talked about that scc to investigate china.

Oh what's this hold on a second, let's take a look at this. Okay. Take a look at this one options: market is signaling. Stock sell-off is approaching an end super awesome.

I actually bought some calls today on a stock that had uh the lowest volatility that we've seen ever on the stock, which means it hasn't been on the market long but uh it had some. You know over the last six months, some of the lowest volatility. So i'm excited about that and bought some call options on that. One we'll see how that goes, but take a look at this stocks are selling off dragging the s p 500 down more than five percent since its all-time high earlier last month, uh to its selling one s, p 500 put contract.

That's ten percent out of the money right now uh buys fewer equivalent call options than it did three months ago. The observation was made by rbc capital as no guarantee that the worst is over, but it could be a sign that some options, traders think so so that's interesting. So in other words, if you sold a put, let's say you got a ten thousand dollar uh credit. You could have used that to buy essentially the equivalent of three contracts about a month ago in terms of um selling, puts and call options, and that's now flipped so call options have gotten more expensive.

In other words, derivators traders have been, and that would imply that people are buying call options right. Derivative traders have been preparing for this downturn since earlier this summer, piling into puts as the stock market ascended to new highs. So when the rut finally happened, yanking more than 2 trillion in the market value from the s p 500 few were caught by surprise. Demand for protection may be elevated, but there are few signs of panic.

Well, that's an interesting line here. Demand for protection like safety stocks might be elevated, but a few signs of panic market was worried for a long time. Uh about uh, okay, well, just in general, worried, okay got it less. Buying power got it rotation fears, but it's not the case for the entire stock market, while buying power of put contracts has fallen for the s p, 500 and small caps.

It's moved in the opposite direction for tech companies, that's in line with uh the rut for ny fang index. That's down around three percent on monday, teetering near correction territory with more than a nine percent decline from a september high gotcha, okay, so some comparisons. Ah, that's pretty much all they do. Is they sort of compare option contracts here, suggesting the options market thinks that uh? The end is near, which wouldn't that be absolutely wonderful? Uh you get in you, do your dip buying and then you sit around and watch all right, but beyond that relatively quiet in terms of news, so uh we're going to and this one a little bit early appreciate you all being here.

Thank you. So very much get your free stock with public by going back, kevin.com public and see you next one thanks again bye.